Speculation: Signing Knies

[Funk21]

I’m wonder aloud why hasn’t management sign this kid to an extension?

We screwed up not signing Nylander and Marner a year before their ELC’s were up. Why is it that every other team is extending their young stars in the making and we can’t seem to learn follow suit.

I’d present his camp with a 5 million x 6 year deal. Guy put up 35 in his rookie year and I suspect he hits 50 plus this year. While maybe slightly pricey to star I suspect it would be a steal.

We screwed up not extending Hyman long term, I really don’t want to see this team continue to play cap gymnastics again and again.

Thoughts?

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[ACC1224]

Maybe they have made an offer?

 

[Funk21]

Maybe they have made an offer?

I think we would have heard something from someone. I think this management staff can’t see the Forrest for the trees. As said every other team is gambling their players will turn into stars vs waiting. Just think it’s Russian roulette and we’ve lost two or three times already.

 

[LeafEgo]

I think we would have heard something from someone. I think this management staff can’t see the Forrest for the trees. As said every other team is gambling their players will turn into stars vs waiting. Just think it’s Russian roulette and we’ve lost two or three times already.

Teams are taking risks signing players early to gain advantage under the cap structure. I don't know this, but suspect it's usually done with the top tier of prospects you referenced earlier - Marners, Nylanders caliber.

But it's a good idea, expand the scope and place your bets and get them right. We need every advantage to turn this thing around.

Knies seems like a good bet but he may not be interested, no need for insurance, or they can't come to agreement on the two-way risk price point, which is probably not easy.

 

[PROUD PAPA]

The most likable guy on the team.

 

[notbias]

Teams are taking risks signing players early to gain advantage under the cap structure. I don't know this, but suspect it's usually done with the top tier of prospects you referenced earlier - Marners, Nylanders caliber.

But it's a good idea, expand the scope and place your bets and get them right. We need every advantage to turn this thing around.

Knies seems like a good bet but he may not be interested, no need for insurance, or they can't come to agreement on the two-way risk price point, which is probably not easy.

It's working out terribly for Ottawa, they've done it on multiple players.

We just did it with Woll.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I think we would have heard something from someone. I think this management staff can’t see the Forrest for the trees. As said every other team is gambling their players will turn into stars vs waiting. Just think it’s Russian roulette and we’ve lost two or three times already.

If they did it with Woll the probably had conversations with Knies

 

[ACC1224]

I think we would have heard something from someone. I think this management staff can’t see the Forrest for the trees. As said every other team is gambling their players will turn into stars vs waiting. Just think it’s Russian roulette and we’ve lost two or three times already.

We didn’t know ahead of time with Woll.
Who would you say Treliving ‘lost two or three times already’ with?

 

[LeafSteel]

The most likable guy on the team.

Interesting thing to say.

What makes you say this? Genuinely asking.

It would be nice to have more genuinely likeable guys on this team. Feels like Cowan will be another one.

Cheers.

 

[mjd1001]

Should the Leafs try to sign him long term? Yes, I think most can see he's a good player that doesn't cause many problems.

The problem is for how much? As good as he may look, he's not a top end guy to me. I think some on this forum tend to over-estimate his skill/ceiling. I think he has the potential to be a good bottom 6 guy, with the potential to fit in (but not drive) a top 6 role. I'd want to pay him as such, not pay him as a legit, full-fledged top 6 guy.

 

[81Leafs50]

Leafs are pretty good at keeping things quiet. Knies will be signed and will be a Maple Leaf for a very long time.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Signing long term can cause problems too. Some people are still complaining about the Zaitsev signing.

 

[HockeyVirus]

If he would take 3m x 6 I do that. Chances are he knows he should bet on himself and can likely get 4+ next offseason

 

[Sundinisagod]

If he would take 3m x 6 I do that. Chances are he knows he should bet on himself and can likely get 4+ next offseason

He wouldn't be dumb enough to take 3m, unless a bridge deal. His floor is basically middle 6 winger which is worth 3m then add something for his upside...i think 5m would be fair to both sides.

 

[HockeyVirus]

He wouldn't be dumb enough to take 3m, unless a bridge deal. His floor is basically middle 6 winger which is worth 3m then add something for his upside...i think 5m would be fair to both sides.

He has not shown enough to command 5M. Maybe next year if he has a crazy year and looks like a potential first liner.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

What would a fair offer even be?

Long term is most likely off the table, knies probably doesn’t want to sign before this season as he’s gonna play 1LW and if he can put up 60ish points he’s gonna be losing out money

A bridge deal could work I guess

At long term I’d look to take a bit of a risk and lock him in 5.5-6x8 as of today, but again he wouldn’t do this.

On a bridge deal probably something like 3x3

 

[Torontonian]

What would a fair offer even be?

Long term is most likely off the table, knies probably doesn’t want to sign before this season as he’s gonna play 1LW and if he can put up 60ish points he’s gonna be losing out money

A bridge deal could work I guess

At long term I’d look to take a bit of a risk and lock him in 5.5-6x8 as of today, but again he wouldn’t do this.

On a bridge deal probably something like 3x3

Toronto should avoid trying to bridge him at all costs and get him signed long term. Try to get value in years 3-6 at a lower cap hit. I see him being a solid 2nd line winger

4.5 to 4.75m for 6 years. Might not be worth the caphit in years 1 and 2, but from 3 to 6 def should be.

 

[Magic Man]

4M per for 8 years.

Pretty safe bet to be a top-9 forward long-term. Ceiling is in question. Can he be a 60-80 point power forward or is he more of a 30-50 point power forward long term?

 

[Aashir Mallik]

It's working out terribly for Ottawa, they've done it on multiple players.

We just did it with Woll.

It’s been so/so I’d say

Stutzle, Tkachuk were good bets

Chabot hasn’t lived up to the expectations
Norris has been a trainwreck

Sanderson as of now is tracking decently, but he needs to take another step to really make worth of his contract.

Montreal has done similar with Suzuki, caufield, slafkovsky. The first two have been good bets so far, Slaf had a good year but again needs to take another step

Jack Hughes was bet on as he was signed in 2021 having played only 3 games due to injury and coming off a 45 point pace the year prior, that contracts also aging very well

the tactic as a whole is hit or miss, but usually you get average value out of the player

 

[notbias]

It’s been so/so I’d say

Stutzle, Tkachuk were good bets

Tkachuk is one of the most overrated players in the game just because he fights and hits.

Stutzle is still not worth his contract although I think he will be.

Chabot hasn’t lived up to the expectations
Norris has been a trainwreck

Sanderson as of now is tracking decently, but he needs to take another step to really make worth of his contract.

Montreal has done similar with Suzuki, caufield, slafkovsky. The first two have been good bets so far, Slaf had a good year but again needs to take another step

Jack Hughes was bet on as he was signed in 2021 having played only 3 games due to injury and coming off a 45 point pace the year prior, that contracts also aging very well

the tactic as a whole is hit or miss, but usually you get average value out of the player

I agree with everything else... was just illustrating it isn't a surefire way to get value contracts, it backfires as well.

Most of the guys you listed outside of Hughes have at best, been worth their contract, not sure anyone has exceeded it yet.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Considering we almost never go in on a guy before a breakout, I'd like to see it for once. Guy had a sick playoffs and sometimes you just know it's going to be fine. The guy is so young, so strong, and skilled, just get it done. We have some overpaid riff raff hopefully off the books this summer so either way Knies is younger and is going to be much cheaper than the usual jokers

 

[ITM]

Dog days that bad where we have to manufacture anxiety now?

Talk about the top thing on my list called: Things with the Leafs I'm Least Worried About.

 

[Nineteen67]

He’s a really solid player. I don’t see the benefit to him of signing now, unless they blow him away with an offer.

 

[TMLAM34]

I’m sure the Leafs would love to get this kid signed long term but there’s really no reason for Knies to do so atm.

I’d go as high as 5.25 million per on a longer term deal say 6 years?

 

[Nineteen67]

I’m sure the Leafs would love to get this kid signed long term but there’s really no reason for Knies to do so atm.

I’d go as high as 5.25 million per on a longer term deal say 6 years?

He’d probably jump at 5.25.

They’re likely offering a lot less and he’s probably thinking whatever they offer today will be there next July.