Speculation: Signing Knies

[TMLAM34]

6 years at 5.25 million per. Limited NTC when it can kick in.

Staple this kid next to Matthews and Domi. He’ll be worth that money in year 2 and the three will be locked in for quite some time.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Knies should be holding out for the max he can get.

He had a good rookie year. Lived up to expectations by meeting projections. I'd like to see more power in his forward.

But I really like this kid.

That doesn't mean I'm convinced he's the next Darcy Tucker. I'm not even convinced he's the next Hyman. But I'm impressed with what he's done so far.

Knies should only go up from here.

Man did this guy ever get lucky playing with the four most appropriately compensated forwards in the game. If Knies was smart he would do exactly what they did and milk the team for everything he can. A good soldier always looks to his leaders.

Then follows the example they set.

 

[NVious]

If he spends enough time around the $core$ I could see his ask going up to 10m asap.

 

[Hellcat]

The kid is all effort all the time, skates like he's angry at the ice, choppy choppy skater, some professional skating coaching will help him a lot. He's got a pretty big body, he is strong and could be hard to move, if he can learn how to tip the puck in front of the net like JVR, he could be a 30 goal scorer, I dont think he has a shot that will fool goalies enough to be called a sniper but I think 20g to 30g is a reasonable expectation for Knies.

 

[Menzinger]

I guess it makes sense if they offer that much money… but then it doesn’t really make sense for the team.

After 1 season of 15 goals and 35 points, we’re going to “keep his cap low” at around 6 million? How many point would he have to score to be worth more than that? 25+ goals and 60 points? Thats almost double last year.

For this team, as constructed now, it makes a lot more sense to keep his cost down as much as possible for the duration of Matthews’ contract. After that, it’s time for an organization all reevaluation anyway.

As we've seen in recent history, power forward types tend to get bigger deals than their peers, and all it takes for him is a couple seasons at 20-30 or so goals and that asking price is going to spike a lot.

Considering he's going to be playing in the top six alongside Matthews/Marner/Nylander he seems well positioned to make some spikes offensively.

Factor in we're likely back to consistent multi million per off-season increases in the cap, trying to negotiate a longer extension for him in say 2027-2028 after a small bridge deal may be more costly than we think .

Edit:

And to clarify, I don't think it's necessarily doom and gloom for the team if they don't lock him up, but it absolutely I think will save them money, particularly over the back end of his RFA years and into his UFA If they get that longer-term deal

 

[IPS]

He could be the most exciting player to watch beyond the big 3 next season. 21 years old going into his sophomore season that's when players can really make a huge jump in their play.

I don't mind a long term gamble type contract but not as high as some of the prices in here are being suggested.

 

[Dreakmur]

As we've seen in recent history, power forward types tend to get bigger deals than their peers, and all it takes for him is a couple seasons at 20-30 or so goals and that asking price is going to spike a lot.

He has one year left on his deal, so he can’t get a couple of 20+ goal seasons.

Considering he's going to be playing in the top six alongside Matthews/Marner/Nylander he seems well positioned to make some spikes offensively.

That’s why you want to sign him to a contract before the season, but it doesn’t necessarily mean both sides want to lock into a long contract, or they can agree on the price.

Players aren’t stupid. They know the cap is rising too.

Factor in we're likely back to consistent multi million per off-season increases in the cap, trying to negotiate a longer extension for him in say 2027-2028 after a small bridge deal may be more costly than we think .

The point of a long term contract is to overpay early and underpay late. That made sense to do with the core in the early 20s, since we would presumably be in a better position to win as they advanced into their prime years.

The Knies situation is different. The core is in their prime right now, and will likely start declining in a few years. It doesn’t make sense to overpay when we’re in a better position to win and save when we’re in a worse position l.

 

[Madap]

Get him signed long term even if it’s a bit of a risk.

One thing Toronto has not been good at in recent years is finding players who outperform their contracts, and you really need a few of those to win. We’ve had a few on one or two year deals, but no one that has given us any real long term value. This organization is just way too risk adverse.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Get him signed long term even if it’s a bit of a risk.

One thing Toronto has not been good at in recent years is finding players who outperform their contracts, and you really need a few of those to win. We’ve had a few on one or two year deals, but no one that has given us any real long term value. This organization is just way too risk adverse.

Pretty hard to find players who can outperform their contracts when you overpay everyone.

 

[Madap]

Pretty hard to find players who can outperform their contracts when you overpay everyone.

Other than our stars, who have we overpaid?

I actually think we’ve been pretty good at not overpaying our depth pieces at least. Pretty much just paying everyone what they’re worth. But it’s the teams that find value that have an easier time winning.

Our team is just scared of taking risks, and it’s kept us in mediocrity.

 

[Menzinger]

He has one year left on his deal, so he can’t get a couple of 20+ goal seasons.



That’s why you want to sign him to a contract before the season, but it doesn’t necessarily mean both sides want to lock into a long contract, or they can agree on the price.

Players aren’t stupid. They know the cap is rising too.



The point of a long term contract is to overpay early and underpay late. That made sense to do with the core in the early 20s, since we would presumably be in a better position to win as they advanced into their prime years.

The Knies situation is different. The core is in their prime right now, and will likely start declining in a few years. It doesn’t make sense to overpay when we’re in a better position to win and save when we’re in a worse position l.

By a couple 20+ goal seasons I was referring to if they sign him to a bridge deal after this. Which imo will cost the Leafs more in the medium to long term.

Yes both sides.have to agree, but Marner and Nylanders agents still also agreed to 6 year deals post elc. I don't think there's anything from Knies camp so far that indicates he'd be reluctant to do something similar.

Imo getting 1-2 core guys (which I think Knies will turn into) on cheaper long term deals will be just as important to keeping the team competitive as nickle and diming guys in the short term