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Speculation: Signing Knies

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Knies should be holding out for the max he can get.

He had a good rookie year. Lived up to expectations by meeting projections. I'd like to see more power in his forward.

But I really like this kid.

That doesn't mean I'm convinced he's the next Darcy Tucker. I'm not even convinced he's the next Hyman. But I'm impressed with what he's done so far.

Knies should only go up from here.

Man did this guy ever get lucky playing with the four most appropriately compensated forwards in the game. If Knies was smart he would do exactly what they did and milk the team for everything he can. A good soldier always looks to his leaders.

Then follows the example they set.
 
If he spends enough time around the $core$ I could see his ask going up to 10m asap.
 
The kid is all effort all the time, skates like he's angry at the ice, choppy choppy skater, some professional skating coaching will help him a lot. He's got a pretty big body, he is strong and could be hard to move, if he can learn how to tip the puck in front of the net like JVR, he could be a 30 goal scorer, I dont think he has a shot that will fool goalies enough to be called a sniper but I think 20g to 30g is a reasonable expectation for Knies.
 
Dreakmur said:
I guess it makes sense if they offer that much money… but then it doesn’t really make sense for the team.

After 1 season of 15 goals and 35 points, we’re going to “keep his cap low” at around 6 million? How many point would he have to score to be worth more than that? 25+ goals and 60 points? Thats almost double last year.

For this team, as constructed now, it makes a lot more sense to keep his cost down as much as possible for the duration of Matthews’ contract. After that, it’s time for an organization all reevaluation anyway.
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As we've seen in recent history, power forward types tend to get bigger deals than their peers, and all it takes for him is a couple seasons at 20-30 or so goals and that asking price is going to spike a lot.

Considering he's going to be playing in the top six alongside Matthews/Marner/Nylander he seems well positioned to make some spikes offensively.

Factor in we're likely back to consistent multi million per off-season increases in the cap, trying to negotiate a longer extension for him in say 2027-2028 after a small bridge deal may be more costly than we think .

Edit:

And to clarify, I don't think it's necessarily doom and gloom for the team if they don't lock him up, but it absolutely I think will save them money, particularly over the back end of his RFA years and into his UFA If they get that longer-term deal
 
He could be the most exciting player to watch beyond the big 3 next season. 21 years old going into his sophomore season that's when players can really make a huge jump in their play.

I don't mind a long term gamble type contract but not as high as some of the prices in here are being suggested.
 
Menzinger said:
As we've seen in recent history, power forward types tend to get bigger deals than their peers, and all it takes for him is a couple seasons at 20-30 or so goals and that asking price is going to spike a lot.
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He has one year left on his deal, so he can’t get a couple of 20+ goal seasons.

Menzinger said:
Considering he's going to be playing in the top six alongside Matthews/Marner/Nylander he seems well positioned to make some spikes offensively.
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That’s why you want to sign him to a contract before the season, but it doesn’t necessarily mean both sides want to lock into a long contract, or they can agree on the price.

Players aren’t stupid. They know the cap is rising too.

Menzinger said:
Factor in we're likely back to consistent multi million per off-season increases in the cap, trying to negotiate a longer extension for him in say 2027-2028 after a small bridge deal may be more costly than we think .
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The point of a long term contract is to overpay early and underpay late. That made sense to do with the core in the early 20s, since we would presumably be in a better position to win as they advanced into their prime years.

The Knies situation is different. The core is in their prime right now, and will likely start declining in a few years. It doesn’t make sense to overpay when we’re in a better position to win and save when we’re in a worse position l.
 
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Get him signed long term even if it’s a bit of a risk.

One thing Toronto has not been good at in recent years is finding players who outperform their contracts, and you really need a few of those to win. We’ve had a few on one or two year deals, but no one that has given us any real long term value. This organization is just way too risk adverse.
 
Madap said:
Get him signed long term even if it’s a bit of a risk.

One thing Toronto has not been good at in recent years is finding players who outperform their contracts, and you really need a few of those to win. We’ve had a few on one or two year deals, but no one that has given us any real long term value. This organization is just way too risk adverse.
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Pretty hard to find players who can outperform their contracts when you overpay everyone.
 
TMLBlueandWhite said:
Pretty hard to find players who can outperform their contracts when you overpay everyone.
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Other than our stars, who have we overpaid?

I actually think we’ve been pretty good at not overpaying our depth pieces at least. Pretty much just paying everyone what they’re worth. But it’s the teams that find value that have an easier time winning.

Our team is just scared of taking risks, and it’s kept us in mediocrity.
 
Dreakmur said:
He has one year left on his deal, so he can’t get a couple of 20+ goal seasons.



That’s why you want to sign him to a contract before the season, but it doesn’t necessarily mean both sides want to lock into a long contract, or they can agree on the price.

Players aren’t stupid. They know the cap is rising too.



The point of a long term contract is to overpay early and underpay late. That made sense to do with the core in the early 20s, since we would presumably be in a better position to win as they advanced into their prime years.

The Knies situation is different. The core is in their prime right now, and will likely start declining in a few years. It doesn’t make sense to overpay when we’re in a better position to win and save when we’re in a worse position l.
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By a couple 20+ goal seasons I was referring to if they sign him to a bridge deal after this. Which imo will cost the Leafs more in the medium to long term.

Yes both sides.have to agree, but Marner and Nylanders agents still also agreed to 6 year deals post elc. I don't think there's anything from Knies camp so far that indicates he'd be reluctant to do something similar.

Imo getting 1-2 core guys (which I think Knies will turn into) on cheaper long term deals will be just as important to keeping the team competitive as nickle and diming guys in the short term
 
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We were in a jam and Chicago knew they had a chance of ripping us right off. Thank dog Shanny didn’t bite. I don’t hate Dugas, but that really would have been diabolical.
 
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PromisedLand said:
BUMP

Saw this on twitter recently. As much as I am pissed at Shanny he did one thing right in telling dubas to F right OFF with his stupid trades

just imagine if Shanny had stood pat..... I shudder at that thought

https://x.com/i/web/status/1858669638982197387
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Hagel would've been gone by now because they couldn't afford his new deal. But at least the poindexters on here would be here to tell us why it's actually good to lose players and have nothing to show for it.
 
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PromisedLand said:
BUMP

Saw this on twitter recently. As much as I am pissed at Shanny he did one thing right in telling dubas to F right OFF with his stupid trades

just imagine if Shanny had stood pat..... I shudder at that thought

https://x.com/i/web/status/1858669638982197387
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I don't believe for one second that deal was done and Shannahan was the saviour. This came out in less than 48 hours after Dubas was fired and there was a rumour that MLSE board was thinking about letting Shanny go with him. Then all of a sudden the good ship Maple Leaf front office that didn't leak anything had more holes in it than the Yamato before it sunk. All trying to show how brilliant Shanny is.

Every team in the league was asking for Knies when talking to Toronto about a trade and it was reported that everytime teams were told he is not available. I do believe Chicago management offered that deal and it was leaked the Leafs were thinking about it to put pressure on Dubas. Remember how angry he was that rumour was leaked? Only reason to leak it is someone other than Dubas was on board with it.
 
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PromisedLand said:
BUMP

Saw this on twitter recently. As much as I am pissed at Shanny he did one thing right in telling dubas to F right OFF with his stupid trades

just imagine if Shanny had stood pat..... I shudder at that thought

https://x.com/i/web/status/1858669638982197387
Click to expand...
They have the wrong year for the first. Would have been 2022 and I'm pretty sure they ended up with it anyways and selected Rinzel at 25.

Cowan was an acquired pick (Sandin) that didn't happen until later
 
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Gallagbi said:
They have the wrong year for the first. Would have been 2022 and I'm pretty sure they ended up with it anyways and selected Rinzel at 25.

Cowan was an acquired pick (Sandin) that didn't happen until later
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Yup. That tells you how reliable the rumour is.
 
Antropovsky said:
Saw this on X pretty funny. In all honesty, he is exactly what our captaincy needs, when you also consider his willingness to muck it up a bit. It isn't C of course, but an A for sure. Considering how soft and quiet our leadership group is.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1857986461657612587
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He's also developing the clutch gene.

Been involved in some big playoff moments lately, and he's starting to become a guy that makes things happen when we need someone to make things happen.

Really exciting player to track
 
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Tak7 said:
He's also developing the clutch gene.

Been involved in some big playoff moments lately, and he's starting to become a guy that makes things happen when we need someone to make things happen.

Really exciting player to track
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Looking like he is going to be 8m in TO.
 
thewave said:
Looking like he is going to be 8m in TO.
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I think there was another thread on what Knies would sign for and I said give him the same deal Jarvis got in Carolina before the cap goes up 9 to 19 million this year. The only reason the cap did not go up this much the past offseason was the NHLPA did not trigger the modifier as they wanted to change the escrow amount. Now it looks like not only will the cap go up by 9 to 10 million this year but the following year the CBA gets reopened and I will bet you that the cap is going to go up by 9 to 10 million the next couple of years. I can also see the Owners/NHLPA negotiating some cap free buy outs.

Now the Jarvis contract looks like it will be the floor for Knies. Now before people start talking about a bridge deal here do you really want Knies to only sign for 2 or 3 years then deal and gamble he doesn't rip a couple 35 plus goal seasons? He is then going to be looking at 12 to 13 million over 8 years. Far better to sign him to 7ish million for 8 years now when the Leafs coupld be staring at 35 million in cap space with possibly 3 ELC players on the roster next year.
 
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BobClarkesfrontteeth said:
I think there was another thread on what Knies would sign for and I said give him the same deal Jarvis got in Carolina before the cap goes up 9 to 19 million this year. The only reason the cap did not go up this much the past offseason was the NHLPA did not trigger the modifier as they wanted to change the escrow amount. Now it looks like not only will the cap go up by 9 to 10 million this year but the following year the CBA gets reopened and I will bet you that the cap is going to go up by 9 to 10 million the next couple of years. I can also see the Owners/NHLPA negotiating some cap free buy outs.

Now the Jarvis contract looks like it will be the floor for Knies. Now before people start talking about a bridge deal here do you really want Knies to only sign for 2 or 3 years then deal and gamble he doesn't rip a couple 35 plus goal seasons? He is then going to be looking at 12 to 13 million over 8 years. Far better to sign him to 7ish million for 8 years now when the Leafs coupld be staring at 35 million in cap space with possibly 3 ELC players on the roster next year.
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I agree with you but think he will get 8m here because of internal comparables. Management can't put the Dubas geenie back in the bottle.
 
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