Rumor: Should the CBJ pursue Elias Pettersson?

[cbjthrowaway]

I'd rather have a defenseman.

I don’t understand how some people can forget that Chinakhov looked like our best forward at the start of the year.

i wouldn't say he was our best forward but he looked like a legitimate top six difference-maker, and his underlying numbers defensively were outstanding. but he's simply not available enough to make good on the potential, and hard to reliably pencil in as a top-six contributor.

I could reply to plenty of other posts and posters downplaying Chinakhov. Other than some people hating on Severson in the way they are, nothing else is bothering me more than what some people are saying about Chinakhov and how they are treating his future as a CBJ player.

chinakhov is a valuable and talented player. severson is a very capable and effective player with outstanding underlying numbers, but the eye test is less favorable (you can tell from the jump when he's gonna have a bad night)

neither one of those guys are off-the-table assets when you're talking about someone like elias pettersson. as far as the young guys on the roster are concerned, the only true untouchables for me are marchenko and fantilli. there's a second tier of faux-untouchables in voronkov, kj and mateychuk.

it's hard to put chinny in that second tier with the amount of time he misses and the fact that there doesn't seem to be a clear-cut PP1 role for him the way there is with the other wings (KJ, marchy and voronkov).

imo a lot of the roster build falls into place if they add a piece like pettersson. you'd have one of the better 1-2 punches down the middle with EP40-monahan (and longer-term, fantilli), three legit top-six difference makers on the wing, plus jenner, fantilli and DBB, with brindley waiting in the wings.

suddenly firepower and fit aren't issues, and they can focus on adding specific elements (defense, physicality, speed) to the forward group more intentionally via trade or bargain UFA finds – those things are inherently cheaper than scoring.

as far as severson is concerned, the best case scenario is getting him into that deal because it allows them to keep provorov, flip him to recoup a first rounder, and then gives don the ability to go get his guys to support werenski/mateychuk as the long-term 1-2 on different pairs.

 

[alphafox]

Not sure how the Canucks situation will play out, but following Rutherford's comments it sounds like both EP40 and Miller might be out and at fire sale prices. I continue to believe that if the cost is Sillinger/Chinakov/Jenner+Proverov/Severson+MN1st or less than this is absolutely a deal we should pull the trigger on. The Cap is jumping way up with rumors it will be over 100 Million in the next two years. That leaves plenty of money to sign the critical guys we need or room to retain and trade EP if we can't be a cap team and he gets passed by Fantilli and Lindstrom over the next few years.

 

[squashmaple]

Not sure how the Canucks situation will play out, but following Rutherford's comments it sounds like both EP40 and Miller might be out and at fire sale prices. I continue to believe that if the cost is Sillinger/Chinakov/Jenner+Proverov/Severson+MN1st or less than this is absolutely a deal we should pull the trigger on. The Cap is jumping way up with rumors it will be over 100 Million in the next two years. That leaves plenty of money to sign the critical guys we need or room to retain and trade EP if we can't be a cap team and he gets passed by Fantilli and Lindstrom over the next few years.

If you have EP40, you can afford to let Lindstrom's deelopment be a true slowburn. And then you have the luxury of having a top prospect ready to step in on the back half of some of your other deals and some of them are gone by the time he's coming off his ELC/low AAV second contract. Sort of like what the Kings did with Byfield.

I would personally prefer Boeser because the difference in cap hits is what solid bottom-sixer is going to cost as the cap goes up, a two-way veteran RW to stick with KJ and Fantilli sounds amazing to me (once Monahan is back he goes back to between the Russians), and he's from the Midwest so more likely to find Columbus like home. I also just don't trust that the current EP40 isn't what he really is, and that is just not an 11mm player. I'm not sure the Blue Jackets can afford that gamble. Would I be elated with either one? Sure. But I do have a preference.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Canucks GM was also implying that he may have to sell low on them to get them out of there. That perked my ears up a bit.

I’m down to buy on either one of them if the cost is low

 

[alphafox]

I would rank them this way.

1. Boeser- Cheapest to Acquire and likely to sign long term. Likely doesn't cost anything more than Chinakov and a non-first round pick.
2. EP40- Highest potential out of the Canucks (outside of Quinn Hughes who jumps to 1 if he was available) and is almost guaranteed to improve by getting away from JT. He gives us an outstanding depth at Center and best case lets us roll three dangerous scoring lines with Monahan and Fantilli having good wingers when we are healthy. Also let's overdevelop Lindstrom to replace/trade someone in the future to make a long term stay in the cup contender conversation.

No JT Miller-He might be phenomenal on the ice and in the right culture but he is a rumored bully and has been the source of a lot of locker room discontent which is the opposite of what we likely need at the end.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

If you have EP40, you can afford to let Lindstrom's deelopment be a true slowburn. And then you have the luxury of having a top prospect ready to step in on the back half of some of your other deals and some of them are gone by the time he's coming off his ELC/low AAV second contract. Sort of like what the Kings did with Byfield.

not only would you have a short-medium term 1-2-3 of EP40, fantilli and monahan, but you'd also almost certainly still have DBB as a guy who can step in at center and lindstrom (as you said) as a wildcard.

if a superstar defenseman comes available a couple years down the road and lindstrom's development gets back on track, suddenly he's one of the most desirable trade chips out there, or a direct in-house for a more expensive piece down the road (ex: voronkov) if they get into cap trouble.

 

[majormajor]

and is almost guaranteed to improve by getting away from JT.

That would be hilarious to a lot of Canucks fans. They hotly debate whether EP just plain sucks. The general view is that he doesn't have between the ears what it takes to be a star in the NHL.

I do think JT is a big drag on EP, and of course EP can improve without JT, but how much improvement does he need to be worth $11.6m per year? He currently has pts in 4 of his last 14 games. I'd say he'd need to be well over a point per game guy to be worth $11.6m per.

And what does it say about the character of the guy you're acquiring when he can completely fall apart because of one teammate? I don't think that's it, there are other issues, but if it was the one reason, it wouldn't be very commendable.

Also let's overdevelop Lindstrom to replace/trade someone in the future to make a long term stay in the cup contender conversation.

We're already in a position to overcook our prospects with our depth of young players.
EP's contract runs through 2032, every one of our prospects will be UFA age by the time that enormous [likely albatross] contract is done.

not only would you have a short-medium term 1-2-3 of EP40, fantilli and monahan, but you'd also almost certainly still have DBB as a guy who can step in at center and lindstrom (as you said) as a wildcard.

How would it feel if EP was our third or fourth best option at center? $11.6m through 2032.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

How would it feel if EP was our third or fourth best option at center? $11.6m through 2032.

i reject your premise. there's not a reality where elias pettersson would be the #4 center on the columbus blue jackets. even with this season being a down year by his standards:

1. he still has the best xGF% on the team (56.7%) – ahead of quinn hughes
2. he has a better HDCF% (66.7%) than anyone on the jackets by over 10 percentage points
3. per dom's model he's still very good defensively (+3 defensive rating, +8 net rating)

in the two years immediately before this one, he:

• averaged a 37-60–97 line
• made the all-star team both years
• got selke, byng and hart votes (7th for the selke in 22-23, finished top-10 in byng voting both years, was 18th in hart votes in 22-23)
• led the league in shorthanded goals in 22-23

so we have a six-year sample of him showing (and living up to) the potential of being an elite two-way 1C who can simultaneously score 100+ points and play selke-level defense.

then we have one bad playoff series and a 43-game regular season sample where he has 1) been dealing with a nagging injury, 2) is in a toxic environment and 3) is on a team that is underperforming, but is still clearly the best forward on that team.

there are some very recent and very good parallels here. the obvious parallel here is jack eichel.

• had an 8-figure AAV on an 8-year deal
• elite production that had tapered off
• nagging injury that created risk
• publicly butted heads with the front office
• toxic team dynamics and stagnant team performance
• really bad performance by his standards in his last season in buffalo (2g in 21gp)

took about a half-season to adjust after the trade, then won the cup the next year and is a no-doubt 1C. dude's on pace for 105 points this year. seems good!

the other parallel that immediately comes to mind is sam reinhart. he was in the same toxic environment and it created a lot of questions about his effectiveness and upside. then he goes to a good team with a strong room and immediately becomes a two-way monster. funny how that works.

also this is the part where i'm obligated to mention that elias pettersson's stat line two years ago is more impressive than anything eichel or reinhart have done in their (longer) careers to date.

your recency bias is causing you to overreact to that 43-game sample and overlook the type of player he has proven himself to be + the track record of players in similar situations emphatically erasing any doubt immediately upon landing in a better situation.

 

[majormajor]

i reject your premise. there's not a reality where elias pettersson would be the #4 center on the columbus blue jackets. even with this season being a down year by his standards:

1. he still has the best xGF% on the team (56.7%) – ahead of quinn hughes
2. he has a better HDCF% (66.7%) than anyone on the jackets by over 10 percentage points
3. per dom's model he's still very good defensively (+3 defensive rating, +8 net rating)

in the two years immediately before this one, he:

• averaged a 37-60–97 line
• made the all-star team both years
• got selke, byng and hart votes (7th for the selke in 22-23, finished top-10 in byng voting both years, was 18th in hart votes in 22-23)
• led the league in shorthanded goals in 22-23

so we have a six-year sample of him showing (and living up to) the potential of being an elite two-way 1C who can simultaneously score 100+ points and play selke-level defense.

then we have one bad playoff series and a 43-game regular season sample where he has 1) been dealing with a nagging injury, 2) is in a toxic environment and 3) is on a team that is underperforming, but is still clearly the best forward on that team.

there are some very recent and very good parallels here. the obvious parallel here is jack eichel.

• had an 8-figure AAV on an 8-year deal
• elite production that had tapered off
• nagging injury that created risk
• publicly butted heads with the front office
• toxic team dynamics and stagnant team performance
• really bad performance by his standards in his last season in buffalo (2g in 21gp)

took about a half-season to adjust after the trade, then won the cup the next year and is a no-doubt 1C. dude's on pace for 105 points this year. seems good!

the other parallel that immediately comes to mind is sam reinhart. he was in the same toxic environment and it created a lot of questions about his effectiveness and upside. then he goes to a good team with a strong room and immediately becomes a two-way monster. funny how that works.

your recency bias is causing you to overreact to that 43-game sample and overlook the type of player he has proven himself to be + the track record of players in similar situations emphatically erasing any doubt immediately upon landing in a better situation.

You're also providing a scenario that is made up in your head. The difference is that I'm acknowledging a lot of uncertainty around how EP will perform, while your made up scenario is dead certain in your head. That's less defensible.

The difference with Eichel is that Eichel had one concrete injury - he was very consistent outside of that. With EP we need a spreadsheet to keep track of the various reasons he's supposedly failing, and this goes back years with him, not just this year.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

You're also providing a scenario that is made up in your head. The difference is that I'm acknowledging a lot of uncertainty around how EP will perform, while your made up scenario is dead certain in your head. That's less defensible.

certainty ≠ confidence.

there's enough in his statistical profile + in the precedents set by similar players to be confident that he'll be a true 1C again. i'm far less confident that he'd magically regress to be a 4C here, as you suggested (speaking of "made up scenarios")

The difference with Eichel is that Eichel had one concrete injury - he was very consistent outside of that.

and if you think that eichel's health has been more consistent than pettersson's, well… you'd be the one making things up.

Player	NHL seasons (excl. 24-25)	w/80+ GP	w/70+ GP	% of seasons w/70+ GP
Jack Eichel	9	1	2	22%
Elias Pettersson	6	3	4	67%

of note: eichel's only 80+ gp season was as a rookie. it's been almost a decade since then.

even this season, pettersson could easily end up playing 70+ games – he's played in 43 of his team's 49 games so far.

With EP we need a spreadsheet to keep track of the various reasons he's supposedly failing, and this goes back years with him, not just this year.

the only season where he missed a huge chunk of time was 20-21. two years later he hit 100+ points and finished 7th in selke voting. a fresh start + another offseason of rehab should do him wonders healthwise.

 

[majormajor]

i'm far less confident that he'd magically regress to be a 4C here, as you suggested (speaking of "made up scenarios")

That's misrepresenting what I said. I think there is a real possibility that we will have two, possibly even three centers that are better than EP will be. I'm not betting on that, but it's a very significant risk with how uneven his play is.

and if you think that eichel's health has been more consistent than pettersson's

I'm talking about his level of play. We've been doing "What's wrong with Elias Pettersson?" threads since he was about 21 years old.

 

[VT]

Well with news from Friedman that offers have been underwhelming for both EP40 and Miller. It was also very close for Carolina getting EP40 before the Avalanche trade.

Something like Minnesota’s 1st, Sillinger and Svozil might get it done. This would provide us with another center to add to top 6 center depth. Plus with the emergence of LDBB, it seems like he his passing Sillinger on the depth chart.

Vancouver would want one of Fantilli/Marchenko/K. Johnson + Voronkov. Do you want to trade any of them? After all, Canucks wanted Suzuki from Montreal, so I doubt they would want Sillinger and Svozil. Besides, Minnesota will be playing in the PO, meaning it will have a late pick. If Chinakhov, Yegor is often injured.

I don't know about you, but I prefer gradual team building. We have Monahan, Fantilli is improving every game. Sillinger is the perfect third line center. So, for example.

Voronkov - Monahan - Marchenko
xxx - Fantilli - Johnson
xxx - Sillinger - xxx
Aston-Reeves - Danforth/Kuraly - Olivier

xxx - JvR/LDBB/Jenner/Chinakhov/new players

P.S. Jenner and Chinakhov are in the second group due to injuries.

I would like to get Nikolaj Ehlers. The Ehlers - Fantilli - K. Johnson line might be excellent I think.

 

[squashmaple]

Vancouver would want one of Fantilli/Marchenko/K. Johnson + Voronkov. Do you want to trade any of them? After all, Canucks wanted Suzuki from Montreal, so I doubt they would want Sillinger and Svozil. Besides, Minnesota will be playing in the PO, meaning it will have a late pick. If Chinakhov, Yegor is often injured.

They can want that til the cows come home, but if no team is offering anything close to that, then they're stuck with the pieces they want to move. The point is that they're underwhelmed with their offers. We don't need to outbid ourselves and hand them the moon.

 

[Nanabijou]

They can want that til the cows come home, but if no team is offering anything close to that, then they're stuck with the pieces they want to move. The point is that they're underwhelmed with their offers. We don't need to outbid ourselves and hand them the moon.

Yeah, at this point, it sounds like Vancouver needs to make a decision on whether they will be better off with one or both of them gone, even if they have to take a hit on the return. Sort of like CBJ did with Laine (though the return will still be better than that one).

 

[cbjthrowaway]

That's misrepresenting what I said. I think there is a real possibility that we will have two, possibly even three centers that are better than EP will be. I'm not betting on that, but it's a very significant risk with how uneven his play is.

this "real possibility" is contingent upon:

1. pettersson regressing below his current form
2. AND fantilli's form consistently eclipsing pettersson's in short time
3. AND monahan returning and keeping up his career-best form deep into his 30s
4. AND one of sillinger/del bel belluz to far surpass their middle-six projections to become top line players
5. OR lindstrom hitting his ceiling ahead of schedule (despite a more concerning/severe injury history than pettersson!)

the likelihood of pettersson returning to the form he showed prior to this year is far greater than the likelihood of more than one of those dominoes falling.

even so, "too many good forwards" is the exact kind of problem that solves itself.

I'm talking about his level of play. We've been doing "What's wrong with Elias Pettersson?" threads since he was about 21 years old.

you're either moving the goalposts or forgetting that your comment about consistency was in the same breath as talking about pettersson's injuries specifically.

but i'll follow those goalposts and point out that simply in terms of production, the two players have been similarly consistent.

Age	Eichel p/gp	Pettersson p/gp
20	0.93	0.93
21	0.95	0.97
22	1.05	0.81
23	1.14	0.83
24	0.85	1.28
25	0.74	1.09
26	0.98	0.72

both have back-to-back seasons over (or well over) the 1.0p/gp threshold, and back-to-back seasons where they dealt with injuries and 'only' scored at a 65ish point pace (still legit top line production!). but eichel's 'down' years came after his two best years in buffalo, whereas pettersson bounced back to have his two strongest.

also "level of play" also includes defense – eichel was one of the worst defensive forwards in the entire league over that span, while pettersson has been one of the best throughout his career.

this year is undoubtedly a down year for pettersson – if it wasn't, he simply would not be available – but you are positing that the causes of that are somehow unfixable. there are plenty of reasons to be confident that's not the case.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I don't know about you, but I prefer gradual team building. We have Monahan, Fantilli is improving every game. Sillinger is the perfect third line center. So, for example.

even if sillinger is the "perfect" third line center (he's not) a fantilli-monahan-sillinger trio down the middle isn't nearly as good as pettersson-fantilli-monahan in the long run.

Voronkov - Monahan - Marchenko
xxx - Fantilli - Johnson
xxx - Sillinger - xxx
Aston-Reeves - Danforth/Kuraly - Olivier

xxx - JvR/LDBB/Jenner/Chinakhov/new players

compare that to:

​

chinakhov - pettersson - johnson​

voronkov - monahan - marchenko​

jenner - fantilli - xxx​

zar - danforth - olivier​

​

where xxx could be:

• a top prospect (del bel belluz or brindley)
• a gus nyquist type deadline add
• an under-the-radar UFA next year (a la marchessault/verhaeghe)

that's two top scoring lines, a third line center who should grow into carrying his own line, and boone jenner in a role where he can go all-out on every shift.

 

[koteka]

How would it feel if EP was our third or fourth best option at center? $11.6m through 2032.

That would make me ecstatic. I don’t see it happening, and I don’t want to trade for him. But if it was guaranteed EP40 would be healthy and our 4th best center, I’d be totally onboard with acquiring him.

 

[majormajor]

this "real possibility" is contingent upon:

1. pettersson regressing below his current form

No I would say he isn't very good the way he's playing right now. We could easily have a couple better centers than the current EP.

1. AND fantilli's form consistently eclipsing pettersson's in short time

Or some time before 2032 - this is a long term bet we're talking about.

you're either moving the goalposts or forgetting that your comment about consistency was in the same breath as talking about pettersson's injuries specifically.

What I have in mind is the constant debates on HF about what's wrong with EP. Going back five years now. I mentioned injuries because they have been plaguing him and because Eichel's one significant drop off was 100% injury related. With Pettersson we have a lot more going on and a lot of debate about whether it's mental or physical. Not something you can say one move or one surgery will fix.

That would make me ecstatic. I don’t see it happening, and I don’t want to trade for him. But if it was guaranteed EP40 would be healthy and our 4th best center, I’d be totally onboard with acquiring him.

I think you're imagining like us having 4 1Cs or something? I am talking about him pouting like Laine and playing like crap.

 

[koteka]

I think you're imagining like us having 4 1Cs or something? I am talking about him pouting like Laine and playing like crap.

Yes, that is what I am imagining. But given our history with centers, I’d take 4 2Cs if the worst one is EP40.

 

[majormajor]

Yes, that is what I am imagining. But given our history with centers, I’d take 4 2Cs if the worst one is EP40.

That sounds fine to me if we're not sending significant assets for him and he doesn't have a big contract. This is $11.6m until 2032.

I guess you're just saying the club will be in a good position overall if it has several good centers, and that I wouldn't disagree with. But the $11.6m would be better spent elsewhere.

 

[koteka]

That sounds fine to me if we're not sending significant assets for him and he doesn't have a big contract. This is $11.6m until 2032.

I guess you're just saying the club will be in a good position overall if it has several good centers, and that I wouldn't disagree with. But the $11.6m would be better spent elsewhere.

The $11.6M is the cost of the guarantee in your scenario, which I took literally.

 

[alphafox]

That sounds fine to me if we're not sending significant assets for him and he doesn't have a big contract. This is $11.6m until 2032.

I guess you're just saying the club will be in a good position overall if it has several good centers, and that I wouldn't disagree with. But the $11.6m would be better spent elsewhere.

I think you are going to be shocked at what future cap hits are. That 11.6 is going to look good even at current production 4 years down the road let alone in 2032.

 

[CannonFire1]

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. If CBJ is harboring any thought of acquiring EP40, they need to have every resource available talking to contacts, looking under rocks, and re-defining "due diligence" to make sure they understand exactly what the issues are and why things would be different here. They should also make darn sure EP40 would want to join CBJ.

 

[squashmaple]

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. If CBJ is harboring any thought of acquiring EP40, they need to have every resource available talking to contacts, looking under rocks, and re-defining "due diligence" to make sure they understand exactly what the issues are and why things would be different here. They should also make darn sure EP40 would want to join CBJ.

Make sure that juice is worth the squeeze.

I think it probably is. But I’m not 100% positive.

 

[alphafox]

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. If CBJ is harboring any thought of acquiring EP40, they need to have every resource available talking to contacts, looking under rocks, and re-defining "due diligence" to make sure they understand exactly what the issues are and why things would be different here. They should also make darn sure EP40 would want to join CBJ.

This is why I have Boeser as my #1 target. EP40 is a distressed asset that has a high probability of being a home run, that being said the cost and the asset have to be right to make that swing. I just happen to believe between misuse, lingering injury issues, locker room conflict he would thrive in a different coaching/locker room situation long term.