12.5 is insane for any goalie. That said, I think the goal for the Rangers (and likely what ends up happening) is a deal that stays in the $9.5-$10m range.
The whole "don't pay for goalies" thing is a short term trend that will reverse once the current crop of elite goaltenders establishes themselves, which I think is already happening. An elite goaltender that is consistent year after year is the most valuable player on a team. To have such an asset is game changing.
But the reason teams weren't paying for elite goaltending, is because the league has been going through a period where repeat Vezina winners/finalists don't happen often, and besides Vasilevskiy, it seems like a random non-elite goalie wins the Stanley Cup every year. Combine this with the fact that the cap hasn't risen much in years, and you have a perfect recipe for goaltenders making less salary.
As the cap rises, more elite teams get bounced from the playoffs due to sub par goaltending because they bought into the "goaltending is voodoo so put anyone back there at a low cap hit", and the leaguewide consensus on Top 5-10 goalies settles into a consistent group of guys including Bob, Shesty, Swayman, Ullmark, Hellebuyck, Oettinger, Vasi, etc, you're going to see the AAV of goalies skyrocket again.
Look at how competitive the top of the league is right now in any given season between the top regular season teams. Many of them constructed around rosters that have low AAV in net. All it's gonna take is a few of these teams being goalie'd in April and May by dudes like Shesterkin for them to be like, "OK, we're a good goalie away from winning the Cup, and we don't have time to play Goalies Are Voodoo roulette in free agency. We'll overspend on the guy we know is elite year to year."
The on-ice value of a guy like Shesterkin has always, and will always be incredibly high. It was only a matter of time until the market adjusted to what has been an underpaid position for quite a few years. Goalies aren't akin to NFL running backs - they legitimately are the most important position on the ice if you have a good one you can count on for years The Rangers as a franchise are probably the best example of this, as between Hank and now Shesty, the league has been asking for the better part of 20 years, "Why are the Rangers so good despite being poor at 5v5? They can't possibly keep this up!" Well, when you always have a stud in net, you can, in fact, keep this up.
