Prospect Info: Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Megathread XXI: "New, improved, and wayyyy too much info" Edition

[gaucholoco3]

I would also add that, as I posted earlier, the sharks could get a 1st for Granlund at the deadline. If so, they will add at least 4 more very good prospects in the 2025 draft. So, again, they will have so much young talent that they can actually afford to trade some away for cornerstone established guys as early as next summer.

Grier, to his credit (and his luck), his given himself a nice runway.

Of course I could imagine a pretty bad scenario too where Celly and smith both really struggle and clearly are not ready for top 6 roles just yet while Bystedt, cardwell, gush, haltunnen, Bordeleau, and co all struggle with the cuda and none really establishes themselves as clear nhlers. That seems a bit unlikely that no cream rises to the top, but the NHL is a hard league and most rookies don’t hit their projected ceilings.

So much to watch at all levels this year. Smith and Celly as well as Eklund and Zetterlund, Thrun and Mukhamadullin in the NHL. Cardwell, gush, Halttunen (maybe), Bystedt, Cagnoni (maybe), Bordeleau, jack thmpson in the AHL. Musty in nhl or juniors. Chernyshov and weastch in juniors (along with Roberts and Misskey). Pohlkamp,Lund, and Svoboda in college. And of course Edstrom and LSW in Sweden along with Landen.

So much to watch for!!!

What I love about the way the team is built this year is that it is a win win.

If Celebrini and Smith go through normal growing pains and are 35-45 point rookies then the team will be bottom 3 which would guarantee a top 5 pick with good odds to win the lottery. This would add another high end prospect to the team.

If Celebrini and Smith have above average 45-55 point seasons they will be developing into a strong 1-2 punch down the middle which is a great sign for the future. It would be enough to push them into a 6-10th overall pick but the need for elite top 5 picks is not as critical with their development.

If Celebrini and Smith are both Calder finalists putting up 55+ points and the team is close to the playoffs dropping the pick to the 10-15 range. This would still be outstanding and Grier could start building a contender immediately and the pick would be a luxury or could be packaged to bring in immediate help.

It is hard to see the Sharks having an unsuccessful season. This is also coming from a person who thinks last season was one of the most successful seasons in the history of the franchise.

 

[coooldude]

What I love about the way the team is built this year is that it is a win win.

If Celebrini and Smith go through normal growing pains and are 35-45 point rookies then the team will be bottom 3 which would guarantee a top 5 pick with good odds to win the lottery. This would add another high end prospect to the team.

If Celebrini and Smith have above average 45-55 point seasons they will be developing into a strong 1-2 punch down the middle which is a great sign for the future. It would be enough to push them into a 6-10th overall pick but the need for elite top 5 picks is not as critical with their development.

If Celebrini and Smith are both Calder finalists putting up 55+ points and the team is close to the playoffs dropping the pick to the 10-15 range. This would still be outstanding and Grier could start building a contender immediately and the pick would be a luxury or could be packaged to bring in immediate help.

It is hard to see the Sharks having an unsuccessful season. This is also coming from a person who thinks last season was one of the most successful seasons in the history of the franchise.

I'm optimistic, but not as optimistic. In all three of your scenarios I think we're still vying for bottom 5. Our defense is way too thin and any significant injury to any of our top 6 will put us right back into last year territory in scoring.

And honestly that's okay.

Bedard won the Calder and they had their equivalent of Mukh and Dickinson playing for them and the Hawks were still almost as bad as us. Jumping to 6-10 is imho extremely unlikely.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I'm optimistic, but not as optimistic. In all three of your scenarios I think we're still vying for bottom 5. Our defense is way too thin and any significant injury to any of our top 6 will put us right back into last year territory in scoring.

And honestly that's okay.

Bedard won the Calder and they had their equivalent of Mukh and Dickinson playing for them and the Hawks were still almost as bad as us. Jumping to 6-10 is imho extremely unlikely.

I would be pretty surprised if we weren’t still the worst team in the league, to be honest.

For me, the ideal situation is that we end up worst in the league, but still see a 15-20 point increase in the standings. I think there’s a legit chance that could be what happens.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I would be pretty surprised if we weren’t still the worst team in the league, to be honest.

For me, the ideal situation is that we end up worst in the league, but still see a 15-20 point increase in the standings. I think there’s a legit chance that could be what happens.

The only teams I think have a realistic chance of being worse than the Sharks are Anaheim and Chicago. Chicago looks to be a lot better built on the blue line than we are or the Ducks. All of these teams are going to get a lot worse when injuries pile up. I can see the Sharks getting to around 60 points. And for the Sharks, it makes sense to be about five wins better than last year with guys like Celebrini and Smith improving the forward depth considerably.

 

[sampler]

What I love about the way the team is built this year is that it is a win win.

If Celebrini and Smith go through normal growing pains and are 35-45 point rookies then the team will be bottom 3 which would guarantee a top 5 pick with good odds to win the lottery. This would add another high end prospect to the team.

If Celebrini and Smith have above average 45-55 point seasons they will be developing into a strong 1-2 punch down the middle which is a great sign for the future. It would be enough to push them into a 6-10th overall pick but the need for elite top 5 picks is not as critical with their development.

If Celebrini and Smith are both Calder finalists putting up 55+ points and the team is close to the playoffs dropping the pick to the 10-15 range. This would still be outstanding and Grier could start building a contender immediately and the pick would be a luxury or could be packaged to bring in immediate help.

It is hard to see the Sharks having an unsuccessful season. This is also coming from a person who thinks last season was one of the most successful seasons in the history of the franchise.

I dont think a smith/celly major struggle and finishing practically last would be good. I mean, if you stink long enough you will collect A+ picks forever, but stinking stinks!

We have a great pool already along with currently two 1sts and a 2nd in 2025, which could be another 1st or 2nd or more depending on the return for the FAs to be if we arent a PO team (Blackwood, Vinicek, Granlund, Ruuta, Kunin, Kostin, Sturm...). If we get equivaent of 1st for a package of those guys then thats three 1sts and a 2nd, which would be enough to add 2+ grade A Defense prospects along with another good forward or two. By July 1 2025, the cupboad will be so stacked that we dont need to stink anymore. I want the de-stinkification to start now.

The time to start the upward climb is now. To be honest, I think the forward lines (along with prospects) are close to PO quality already, and will be in 2025 with maybe just one more guy.

The D? well.....

last year was a huge disappointment to me, at just about all levels with zetterlund as the major exception. Eklund starting coming on late in the year I suppose, but no one else of the near future had a great year and alot of top prospects (at the time) floundered or got injured and reversed upward trends. Gannon Laraque had good potential but got injured. Bystedt failed to improve his SHL totals. Havelid got sent to Jrs at the end. Lund improved moderately, but not a big jump. Furlong regressed. Wiesblatt, robins took steps back. Coe floundered despite 100+ pts in juniors. Alot of guys who were the top prospects really had arrested development, and the Cuda were god awful too. No one from the 2019-2022 drafts stepped up really (gush a bit, bordy a bit, but neither established themselves). the 2023 draft class had a good development year in college/jrs, but now is the time to see if they can make the leap to the much harder Pro game playing against men.

I consider this year a success if Smith/Celly establish themselves as clear top 6 forwards. They dont have to be calder candidates but I would like at least 45-50 pts each with clear upward trajectory, as low pt totals, struggles, or injuries ala Slafkovsky would be quite disappointing. The real success for the season comes in all the develpment stuff, but in large part, the pro development of celebrini, smith, Bystedt, Cagnoni (?), Haltunnen (?), Gush, Bordy, Cardwell, Mukh, Thompson, Thrun, Emberson, and possibly Musty (in the NHL.). Thats 13 key prospects that could all be pros. If they develop well, then it's game on. If they don't, then the much beloved pool of the sharks today will look alot worse in a year.

Furthermore, losing breeds losing. To get top UFAs to come to SJ, we need to show marked improvement over last year at all levels, and prove that the future is bright. Another bottom 5 finish is not gunna get top UFAs to invest in SJ and it would mean that we are not close to sniffing the PO's yet. I am hoping to be in the hunt in january even if by the deadline it's clear we will fall short and end up. Another 0-10 start would not be good. I also would be thrilled to make the POs and be buyers there too. Using a prospect as a '26 pick to rent a top 4 Dman for a PO run, and the nextending them if it works out would be AMAZING. It's not impossible if the kids really step up.

Personally, Im optimistic about the forwards, but I am sorely disappointed with the D. Their D was worst in the league last year and its barely better this year. I would have liked to see grier add a toffoli-level vet D on a similar deal this past year. Montour, Skjei... someone. next summer targets could be Larsson, Ekblad, Chychrun, Provorov, Theodore, Pionk. Or, Grier could trade some future draft capital (2026 or later picks) + prospects for a to-be RFA dman. Dobson, Byram, Bouchard, Miller, York, and many others will be RFAs. There is also a class of D that will have just one year remaining that Grier could target to acquire and then extend if it works out (DW style). Rasmus Andersson, matheson, Trouba and others.

I like the "cant lose" approach to the season this year, but I would be much happier with the "yes this loaded prospect pool is the real deal" proof in the pudding.

Imagine this world:

Musty and Mukh make the team out of camp with stellar preseasons. Smith, Musty, and Celly all have great seasons alongside granlund, zetterlund, eklund, and toffoli. Dyllandrea, who's just 23, makes a big leap and puts in 40 pts (he was a 14th pick, had 28 pts two years ago as a 21 year old with ZERO PP time) and wennberg also pots 40 pts as he did with seattle two years ago. That gives a strong top 9 of all 40 pts or more. Goodie, Grunstrum, sturm, and kunin rotate around the depth lines and provide PK value.

Emberson, Mukh, and Thrun all take big steps forward in their development. Emberson is just 24, thrun 23, mukh, 22 so they could take big steps forward. Walman plays well too as a PP captain and puts in 30-40 pts. Mukh established himself as a clear top 4 Dman also potting 40 pts. Jack Thompson steps up in the cuda and looks to be a legit prospect (he was rated as tampa's #5 prospect when we got him and was an AHL all star at 21), and cagnoni plays well too.

On top of that all the cuda kids rock it and the cuda are amongst the best teams in the league with bystedt as a great 1B Center with poturalski, haltunnen plays top line Wing and pots 30+ Goals. Cardwell improves on his 23 goal roookie season to also score 30. Gushkin continues his PPG pace and Bordeleau also goes similarly. The cuda end up with four 30+ goal scorers (bords, gush, halts, and bystedt). Injuries happen at the NHL level (every year) so each of these guys gets an NHL look and does very well.

Cherny destroys the OHL in saginaw with a 100+ pt season. Pohlcamp pairs with Buium and puts in 20 goals and 50 points helping denver to another national championship and clearly placing himself in the NHL conversation. LSW and edstrom crush the SHL so well that they both move to NA at the end of the year and play great in the cuda. Klee and Svoboda have great freshman seasons, lund stars as junior, and even Wetsch steps up to a 100 pt season in calgary.

Obviously, thats a dream scenario but its not so absurd. Hell, even some ofthe "forgotten" guys like Furlong, Laraque, Robins, or Coe could make a run.

Alot of good things could happen this coming year, and it would seem that the only obviously missing piece now (and in the future) is the #1 D slot. Can Grier pull off a heist and find one during this year or next summer?

 

[Juxtaposer]

The only teams I think have a realistic chance of being worse than the Sharks are Anaheim and Chicago. Chicago looks to be a lot better built on the blue line than we are or the Ducks. All of these teams are going to get a lot worse when injuries pile up. I can see the Sharks getting to around 60 points. And for the Sharks, it makes sense to be about five wins better than last year with guys like Celebrini and Smith improving the forward depth considerably.

Yeah I think it’s gonna come down to injuries. If the Sharks stay healthy and guys like Bedard or MacTavish miss 20 games, then there’s a chance we could win more games than those teams, but if the health is relatively equal across all three teams then I don’t really see a way the Sharks will outplay them.

At the end of the day, I don’t care about moving up the standings, I don’t care about what teams around us are doing, I care about improving the Sharks.

 

[sampler]

I would be pretty surprised if we weren’t still the worst team in the league, to be honest.

For me, the ideal situation is that we end up worst in the league, but still see a 15-20 point increase in the standings. I think there’s a legit chance that could be what happens.

You guys think we are still gunna be bottom feeders?

I dont. I dont expect playoffs, but I dont expect worst in the league either .

At forward, Comparing to last year: hertl and duclair were the only two bonafide NHlers that left as hoffman, zadina, barabanov, and labanc were no longer really NHLers (and none currently are). However, we added Toffoli, celebrini, smith, and wennberg (as well as dyllandrea, goodie, and grundstrom who remain TBD for their contriubtions). Add in another year of experience for eklund and zetterlund and its prtty clear that the forward lineup is improved. How improved is a big question mark, but hard to argue its not better, if not MUCH better.

At D, comparing to last year: Borroughs is the only one gone. Walman is the only one in. Still, that's a clear upgrade. Add in another year or Mukh, Thrun, and Emberson and the D is likely improved. its not Way better, but still, better. How much better again depends on the kids, but at least thrun and emberson have experience now, and mukh was an AHL all star and has significant KHL experience against men, so he could be a major shot in the arm for the D.

At G, Kakkhonen out, vanicek in. Eh. whatever. is basically the Same.

At coach: Quinn out, Warsofsky in. TBD.

In other words, we are a better team than last year no matter what, but possibly way better if Celly, Smith, and Mukh make a big splash and some of the other kids also step up. I dont see that team in the basement. I see maybe 8-10th worst, meaning still in the hunt in New Years but clearly out by late february. To me, that would be a good step. Still sellers at the deadline. Still able to add more draft capital iin 2025 and add another wave of top prospects. but totally ready to deploy the major cap space to make a PO run in 25-26 and beyond, and an easy sell to UFAs that SJ is a good place to come to win a cup.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You guys think we are still gunna be bottom feeders?

I dont. I dont expect playoffs, but I dont expect worst in the league either .

At forward, Comparing to last year: hertl and duclair were the only two bonafide NHlers that left as hoffman, zadina, barabanov, and labanc were no longer really NHLers (and none currently are). However, we added Toffoli, celebrini, smith, and wennberg (as well as dyllandrea, goodie, and grundstrom who remain TBD for their contriubtions). Add in another year of experience for eklund and zetterlund and its prtty clear that the forward lineup is improved. How improved is a big question mark, but hard to argue its not better, if not MUCH better.

At D, comparing to last year: Borroughs is the only one gone. Walman is the only one in. Still, that's a clear upgrade. Add in another year or Mukh, Thrun, and Emberson and the D is likely improved. its not Way better, but still, better. How much better again depends on the kids, but at least thrun and emberson have experience now, and mukh was an AHL all star and has significant KHL experience against men, so he could be a major shot in the arm for the D.

At G, Kakkhonen out, vanicek in. Eh. whatever. is basically the Same.

At coach: Quinn out, Warsofsky in. TBD.

In other words, we are a better team than last year no matter what, but possibly way better if Celly, Smith, and Mukh make a big splash and some of the other kids also step up. I dont see that team in the basement. I see maybe 8-10th worst, meaning still in the hunt in New Years but clearly out by late february. To me, that would be a good step. Still sellers at the deadline. Still able to add more draft capital iin 2025 and add another wave of top prospects. but totally ready to deploy the major cap space to make a PO run in 25-26 and beyond, and an easy sell to UFAs that SJ is a good place to come to win a cup.

Yes, we will likely still be bottom feeders. Our blue line is not competitive in the slightest.

 

[coooldude]

You guys think we are still gunna be bottom feeders?

I dont. I dont expect playoffs, but I dont expect worst in the league either .

I was maybe being too polite with my "it's unlikely we won't be bottom 5." I also believe like PF and Jux that we are likely to be last place, and at best we'll be 3rd worst. If both Smith and Celebrini have Calder seasons at 60 points, that's still only going to be what, 20 goals above replacement and we're still at the bottom of the league in GA differential. The defense is way better but still league bottom bad.

So yes, I expect worst in the league. It's time to build, and that's why I don't think we'll trade Granlund if he has a good year, but the building is from such a low point that it'll still take us 2-3 more years before we're even sniffing the playoff threshold. As we have seen many times. Devils: Hischier and Hughes 2017/2019, still missed the playoffs this last year, but are in a great spot as a young up-and-coming team. It takes a REALLY long time to rebuild from the studs.

 

[sampler]

I was maybe being too polite with my "it's unlikely we won't be bottom 5." I also believe like PF and Jux that we are likely to be last place, and at best we'll be 3rd worst. If both Smith and Celebrini have Calder seasons at 60 points, that's still only going to be what, 20 goals above replacement and we're still at the bottom of the league in GA differential. The defense is way better but still league bottom bad.

So yes, I expect worst in the league. It's time to build, and that's why I don't think we'll trade Granlund if he has a good year, but the building is from such a low point that it'll still take us 2-3 more years before we're even sniffing the playoff threshold. As we have seen many times. Devils: Hischier and Hughes 2017/2019, still missed the playoffs this last year, but are in a great spot as a young up-and-coming team. It takes a REALLY long time to rebuild from the studs.

wow, thats some big pessimism (or maybe realism ).

I feel the sharks werent as bad last year as their record. they were bad, for sure, but the 3rd periods were amazingly poor. they were only 12-9 when leading going into the 3rd as opposed 2-43 when trailing. They were even 5-11 when tied. If they were even So so in the 3rd, they woulda had 10+ more points. they were -63 goal differential in the third compared to -45 and -38 in the 1st and second periods. I feel alot of that was confidence and coaching.

lets say the sharks add 50 goals over last year with Smith and cell getting 10 more over labanc and zadina. Toffoli gets 10 more than hertl. Wennberg and co also outscore by 10-20 over last years "rest of the pack". thats potentially +30. The D will also likely score 10 more as walman is better than borroughs and thrun, emberson, and maybe Mukh will likely improve a bit. Add in as well a better defensive effort that gives up 20 fewer goals and maybe 5-10 fewer ENGs and the sharks would end up approx -80 goal differential. I guess thats still bottom 5.

Somehow, it just seems like the sharks roster is just so much better, and they are so much better prepared for injuries as the cuda should be stacked with talent and Bordy/gush should be able to come up and fill in, and possibly bystedt, haltunnen or cardwell too or even bailey or kostin. They have some forward depth in case of injury unlike last year when givani smith played 36 games (1 goal), carpenter played 62 games (5 goals). baravanov and lebanc played a combine 92 games (combined 6 goals.). I expect they should get a whole lot more from grundstrom, dyllandrea, gush or bordy if needed.

I guess I should lower my expectations, but I really hope they do make a much better run. Last year, the Lund line was the only threat so opposition could match up. But now, the sharks could have 3 possible scoring lines, so its much harder to match up.

The D does still stink, but its unclear how much. Its also much more pressure on the D when the forwards cant forecheck or create offense. Lots of D zone time. Often, the best Defense is a good offense, so we could see a huge improvement in the D if the forwards actually produce.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I was maybe being too polite with my "it's unlikely we won't be bottom 5." I also believe like PF and Jux that we are likely to be last place, and at best we'll be 3rd worst. If both Smith and Celebrini have Calder seasons at 60 points, that's still only going to be what, 20 goals above replacement and we're still at the bottom of the league in GA differential. The defense is way better but still league bottom bad.

So yes, I expect worst in the league. It's time to build, and that's why I don't think we'll trade Granlund if he has a good year, but the building is from such a low point that it'll still take us 2-3 more years before we're even sniffing the playoff threshold. As we have seen many times. Devils: Hischier and Hughes 2017/2019, still missed the playoffs this last year, but are in a great spot as a young up-and-coming team. It takes a REALLY long time to rebuild from the studs.

Exactly. The Devils drafted top-5 twice after drafting Hischier and Hughes, and that's despite signing a #1RD in free agency and getting a star out of a late round pick in Bratt. Folks thinking that Smith and Celebrini are going to instantly turn this team around are in for a rude awakening.

 

[sampler]

I was maybe being too polite with my "it's unlikely we won't be bottom 5." I also believe like PF and Jux that we are likely to be last place, and at best we'll be 3rd worst. If both Smith and Celebrini have Calder seasons at 60 points, that's still only going to be what, 20 goals above replacement and we're still at the bottom of the league in GA differential. The defense is way better but still league bottom bad.

So yes, I expect worst in the league. It's time to build, and that's why I don't think we'll trade Granlund if he has a good year, but the building is from such a low point that it'll still take us 2-3 more years before we're even sniffing the playoff threshold. As we have seen many times. Devils: Hischier and Hughes 2017/2019, still missed the playoffs this last year, but are in a great spot as a young up-and-coming team. It takes a REALLY long time to rebuild from the studs.

BTW, the devils are an interesting example. It took heischer until year 5 to break 60 pts. it took hughes until year 4. Slavkovsky is two years in and hasnt hit 60. bedard got 61 pts last year but chicago had Zero help for him and he was -44. Power is a D but hasnt hit 40 yet 3 years in. Lafrenier got 57pts last year but thats year 4 for him. Dahlin got 40+ in year one with buffalo. matthews got 40 goals (69 pts) in year one and made the POs right out of the gate.

If Smith and Celebrini take 4+ years to become real top 6 forwards, then no doubt the sharks will remain in the basement. 30-40 pts each is a very real possibility and such a performance (compared to 50-60 pts) puts the sharks in the basement almost surely and pushes the PO push window closer to 26-27 or even 27-28. its just so hard to know...

Furthermore, the Devils did not add a ton outside of the top picks that became much for them. Bratt and Mercer are the only players drafted since 2013 outside the top 5 to put up 40+ pts as a devil (mercer failed to hit that mark last year which is part of why they missed the POs). Going back further, severson has one 40+ pt season for them but thats it dating back to 2008, when they drafted Henrique. In other words, the devils have drafted just 3 players in the last 15+ years outside the top 5 who have scored 40 pts as a devil, or just 4 players dating back 20 to 2004 when they took zajac or just 6 players since 2000 (parise in 2003). just six players drafted outside the top 5 have scored 40+ pts as a devil since 2000.

the sharks, during the 20 year consistent contention years got lots of depth picks who got 40+ points. dating back to 2001, picks outside the 1st round with 40+ pts as a sharks were: Carle, Pavs, clowe, ehrhoff, Pickles (39, close enough), Wingels (38, close!), Tierney, Labanc... (you can add seto, cooch, michalek, hertl, and meier as outside the top 5 picks who did it). thats 13 sharks draftees outside the top 5 to score at least 40 pts (well, 38) as a shark.

If the sharks pool falls short like the devils' then it will be a long slog. In other words, if Musty, haltunnen, Cardwell, Gushkin, bordeleau, chernychov, bystedt, edstrom, etc all fail to crack 40 pts in the NHL for the sharks, then we will definitely have a tall hill to climb or if Thrun, emberson, Mukh, dickinson, Pohlcamp, Cagnoni, LSW, Thompson, etc fail to establish themselves as clear top 4 D, then argh!

Obviously, prospects are just that: prospects. they arent sure things, and its highly unpredictable. That is why I think this year could be way better, or be dead last again. I just think last year's team was also a function of horrific coaching, as Quinn was a terrible hire (which I said at the time). the sharks were tied or leading at some point in the third period in more than half of their games, yet they lost the vast majority of those. We all remember the 10-1 blowouts, but i also remember a whole lot of 3rd period collapses. I dont like the warsofsky hire either, but anything is better than Quinn and a better culture with a little confidence might make a big difference.

The big advantage the sharks seem to have over NJ or other similar rebuilding teams is the depth of prospects. I mean, the sharks' #15-20 depth guys might be top 5 on some teams (jack thompson was rated #5 for TBL). That kind of prospect depth beyond Smith and celly is where I see the sharks' strength and why I think not only will they be much better this year, but also make a potenatial PO run in '25-'26. The devils did not necessarily have guys of the level of musty, haltunnen, bystedt, edstrom, or even gushkin or bordeleau to back up hiescher and hughes, the way the sharks do to back up smith and celebrini. Obviously, none of those guys have proven anything in the NHL yet, so the sharks great propect deph may be a total mirage, but I dont think so.

It doesnt feel far off to me. But, as mentioned before, this is still very likely a development year and few expct the sharks to actually make the PO's. i just dont think its a foregone conclusion that they finish bottom 3.

p.s.: if the sharks finish near last and granlund has a good year, they will definitely trade him at the deadline. hell be 33 next summer. I dont see extending him with term as making a whole lot of sense when they might get a 1st rounder level asset in return. They can also resign him in summer with a gentlemens agreement during the season if they want to keep him in the fold. The only way I see him staying is if the sharks hae a suprisingly great season and the sharks are buyers (or neutral) at the deadline. If they do keep him, then they will almost surely extend him.

 

[Barrie22]

You guys think we are still gunna be bottom feeders?

I dont. I dont expect playoffs, but I dont expect worst in the league either .

At forward, Comparing to last year: hertl and duclair were the only two bonafide NHlers that left as hoffman, zadina, barabanov, and labanc were no longer really NHLers (and none currently are). However, we added Toffoli, celebrini, smith, and wennberg (as well as dyllandrea, goodie, and grundstrom who remain TBD for their contriubtions). Add in another year of experience for eklund and zetterlund and its prtty clear that the forward lineup is improved. How improved is a big question mark, but hard to argue its not better, if not MUCH better.

At D, comparing to last year: Borroughs is the only one gone. Walman is the only one in. Still, that's a clear upgrade. Add in another year or Mukh, Thrun, and Emberson and the D is likely improved. its not Way better, but still, better. How much better again depends on the kids, but at least thrun and emberson have experience now, and mukh was an AHL all star and has significant KHL experience against men, so he could be a major shot in the arm for the D.

At G, Kakkhonen out, vanicek in. Eh. whatever. is basically the Same.

At coach: Quinn out, Warsofsky in. TBD.

In other words, we are a better team than last year no matter what, but possibly way better if Celly, Smith, and Mukh make a big splash and some of the other kids also step up. I dont see that team in the basement. I see maybe 8-10th worst, meaning still in the hunt in New Years but clearly out by late february. To me, that would be a good step. Still sellers at the deadline. Still able to add more draft capital iin 2025 and add another wave of top prospects. but totally ready to deploy the major cap space to make a PO run in 25-26 and beyond, and an easy sell to UFAs that SJ is a good place to come to win a cup.

To get out of last place, barring another historically bad season by another team like san jose and even Chicago did last season. The team would need to jump up 20-25 points just to be in the normal range of last place. To get to where columbus was 4th last it is a 19 point improvement.

To get into 8th-10th worst range we are looking at a 30-35 point improvement.

To get to 24th worst, we are looking at 80 points. 33 point improvement.

I see the team improving, but not nearly that big of a improvement.

 

[sampler]

Exactly. The Devils drafted top-5 twice after drafting Hischier and Hughes, and that's despite signing a #1RD in free agency and getting a star out of a late round pick in Bratt. Folks thinking that Smith and Celebrini are going to instantly turn this team around are in for a rude awakening.

BTW, the devils made the POs hughes.' 4th year. I suppose that would put the sharks in the PO's in 27-28. However, other teams have made the PO's much faster. Toronto made the PO's in matthews' first year. Pitt made the PO's in crosby's second year. Rangers made the PO's in lafreneire's second year. Buffalo still hasnt made it for Powers or Dahlin and Montreal hasnt either for slafkovsky. Bedard remains to be seen.

In other words, most teams take more than 2 years to make the PO's after picking #1, but some teams make it far sooner. Hard to tell but the fact that the sharks already have so many first rounders in the system before they picked #1 leads to me to think the sharks rebuild could be faster. They arleady have 1st rounders in bystedt, edstrom, smith, eklund, musty, and mukh in the system before drafting celebrini, not to mention borderline 1st round material in haltunnen and complimentary simultaneous first round talent in dickinson and chernyshov (and maybe LSW by some rankings).

The sharks arent picking celly to lead a bare cupboard the way the devils added heischer to a dead pool and hughes to a similarly empty pool. Te sharks pool was already top 10 before the 2024 draft, so I think the timeline will be sooner.

 

[sampler]

To get out of last place, barring another historically bad season by another team like san jose and even Chicago did last season. The team would need to jump up 20-25 points just to be in the normal range of last place. To get to where columbus was 4th last it is a 19 point improvement.

To get into 8th-10th worst range we are looking at a 30-35 point improvement.

To get to 24th worst, we are looking at 80 points. 33 point improvement.

I see the team improving, but not nearly that big of a improvement.

Thats right. I agree with you. I also think that's destinctly possible, with a new coach, and a lot more talent in the lineup, not to mention alot better depth in case of injury.

Walman is a 20 goal upgrade over borroughs. Burroughs played 72 games, and had just 8 pts and -42. I expect walman is good for triple the point totals and was better defensively too. We also had to play guys who clearly didnt belong like Ohtiuk for major games. Addison also stunk as he had just 1 goal all year. This year, we have more D depth, a better top pairing guy, and more experienced youth.

At forward we are WAY better with toffoli wennberg and the rooks, even if the rooks struggle some. having more than one line that score alone will account for a massive difference since other teams cannot just match the lund line and dare zadina, kostin, labanc, hoffman, or barabanov to beat you. Now, the sharks could sport 3 scoring lines, which should lead to more O zone time, which leads to a lot fewer goals against.

I would not be surprised to see a solid 30 pt improvement to around 77-80 pts, which is likely in the mix through new years but ends up around 5-10th worst. Vegas definitely has the sharks dead last in betting odds in every category from stanley cup to probability of a 90+ pt season, so obviously the betting world agrees with you far more than me!

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Thats right. I agree with you. I also think that's destinctly possible, with a new coach, and a lot more talent in the lineup, not to mention alot better depth in case of injury.

Walman is a 20 goal upgrade over borroughs. Burroughs played 72 games, and had just 8 pts and -42. I expect walman is good for triple the point totals and was better defensively too. We also had to play guys who clearly didnt belong like Ohtiuk for major games. Addison also stunk as he had just 1 goal all year. This year, we have more D depth, a better top pairing guy, and more experienced youth.

At forward we are WAY better with toffoli wennberg and the rooks, even if the rooks struggle some. having more than one line that score alone will account for a massive difference since other teams cannot just match the lund line and dare zadina, kostin, labanc, hoffman, or barabanov to beat you. Now, the sharks could sport 3 scoring lines, which should lead to more O zone time, which leads to a lot fewer goals against.

I would not be surprised to see a solid 30 pt improvement to around 77-80 pts, which is likely in the mix through new years but ends up around 5-10th worst. Vegas definitely has the sharks dead last in betting odds in every category from stanley cup to probability of a 90+ pt season, so obviously the betting world agrees with you far more than me!

Just because we had a lot of addition by subtraction doesn't mean that what's being slotted in to replace them is that much better. While Burroughs was objectively terrible, he was their 2nd most used defenseman at even strength. We're asking two guys that were very limited due to injuries and an expiring veteran cap dump who missed some time as well to fill that role that Burroughs vacated. They're probably not going to succeed where he failed. Ferraro will still be our #1 defenseman at evens most likely. I think Walman can be an upgrade at Thrun being the #2 LHD in even strength ice time and either Thrun or Muk will be better than Okhotiuk but that grouping is still getting boatraced even with a better group of forwards.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Exactly. The Devils drafted top-5 twice after drafting Hischier and Hughes, and that's despite signing a #1RD in free agency and getting a star out of a late round pick in Bratt. Folks thinking that Smith and Celebrini are going to instantly turn this team around are in for a rude awakening.

I'm hoping for fun bad instead of sad bad like last year. Same outcome either way (top 5 pick) but one doesn't make you feel bad in the process

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm hoping for fun bad instead of sad bad like last year. Same outcome either way (top 5 pick) but one doesn't make you feel bad in the process

Eklund-Granlund-Zetterlund
Wennberg-Celebrini-Toffoli
Kostin-Smith-Kunin
Goodrow-Sturm-Grundstrom

Ferraro-Emberson
Walman-Rutta
Mukhamadullin/Thrun-Benning

Blackwood-Vanecek

That's still going to have a lot of sad bad in it. There will just be more fun bad this time around. I'd be happy with a top five pick next year. A real #1 defenseman seems possible at that range for the Sharks and they need one badly as it's still going to take them a while to get where we'd want them to in all likelihood.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Post

Some good logic is outlined here. Right now, I don't think you need too much more experience on the bottom-6 because while there are only 2 bonafide veterans (Goodrow/Wennberg), it seems clear that Sturm, Grundstrom, and Kunin are going to make the team and they are at least established NHLers. But it's hard to imagine a future roster where you have 5+ forwards with under 100 games of NHL experience getting consistent minutes.

I'm curious; let's say a player like Rasmus Dahlin becomes available. What should the Sharks be willing to pay to get him? Their 2025 unprotected first? Eklund + Bystedt + the Vegas first? Smith?

 

[sampler]

Some good logic is outlined here. Right now, I don't think you need too much more experience on the bottom-6 because while there are only 2 bonafide veterans (Goodrow/Wennberg), it seems clear that Sturm, Grundstrom, and Kunin are going to make the team and they are at least established NHLers. But it's hard to imagine a future roster where you have 5+ forwards with under 100 games of NHL experience getting consistent minutes.

I'm curious; let's say a player like Rasmus Dahlin becomes available. What should the Sharks be willing to pay to get him? Their 2025 unprotected first? Eklund + Bystedt + the Vegas first? Smith?

If a guy like Dahlin is out there, you damn well bid up for him! Absolutely. hes just waht the docotr ordered!

As for what, that depends on when the hes available. If its right now, I would not be willing to give up our 2025 unprotected as there is a reasonable chance, even with Dahlin that pick will be #1 overall.

However, I would be willing to make eklund or smith the backbone of such a trade. Eklund+Bystedt and vegas 2025 1st? Yes, I would pull the trigger on that one in an instant. I would even be willing to add another high pick or prospect if needed. Guys like Dahlin are very rare, and when they hit the market, you pounce hard, and if you can land him without touching celebrini, smith, or dickinson, or the sharks 2025 pick, you do it in an instant. Not to mention, I dont think there is another team that could outbid the sharks as they would have to have 11m in cap space and a deep pool of picks/prospects to trade.

the 11m cap hit is no issue for the sharks. Eklund is a good player, but I cannot see him becoming a true star. 50-60 pts seems a cap for him and he has work to do defensively too. Still, a clear top 6 forward, former #7 pick for buffalo at age 21 would be a good cornerstone for them. Bystedt is expendable. he might be a very solid NHL player, but the sharks have a glut of such players with smith, celebrini, musty, haltunnen, edstrom, etc while for buffalo, he might be a a nice add. The 2025 vegas pick is likely around #20, but could be a high one (I am not bullish on vegas this year) as a slip by vegas could be like pitt's in the 10-15 range. Still, the sharks would have their own pick, and the cupboard is already pretty good, so you gotta give to get. I think this would be a respectable haul for buffalo, though I doubt he'd ever be on the market. if the sharks had to add another good prospect like Gush, Bordy, or even haltunnen, I would do it.

In Dahlin, the sharks get a 25+ minute, bona fide #1, at 24 years old signed for 8 years. He would be a franchise altering acquisition not so different from acquiring joe thornton in 2005.

He would be the missing piece that allows them to bring up mukh, dickinson and co with much less pressure, and the sharks would still be flush with future in the form of smith, celebrini, musty, dickinson, chernyshov, LSW, Pohlcamp, Edstrom, Haltunnen, and whoever is left of gush, bordy, and haltunnen among others and the 2025 top 5 pick. They have so much in the system that dealing even 3 or 4 top prospects would not be a big problem.

So, yes. Dahlin would be great!

 

[sampler]

BTW, I could see Werensky hitting the market. They have Mateychuk and jiricek already drafted along with severson signed long term. Provorov is a to-be-ufa that could be a nice target for GMMG, but werensky has just 3 years left at 9.5M per, so I wonder if the jackets wouldnt be willing to deal him for a nice package. His value is well below Dahlin for me given injury history too, but he would be a solid top pairing add.

It seems clear the sharks will need to add a top pairing D (or two). Who else do you think GMMG could target either through UFA or trade that would fit the bill and, if trade, what might be a good deal?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

BTW, I could see Werensky hitting the market. They have Mateychuk and jiricek already drafted along with severson signed long term. Provorov is a to-be-ufa that could be a nice target for GMMG, but werensky has just 3 years left at 9.5M per, so I wonder if the jackets wouldnt be willing to deal him for a nice package. His value is well below Dahlin for me given injury history too, but he would be a solid top pairing add.

It seems clear the sharks will need to add a top pairing D (or two). Who else do you think GMMG could target either through UFA or trade that would fit the bill and, if trade, what might be a good deal?

Nah, Mateychuk is going to be why they move Provorov since he's a rental. Jiricek isn't really a factor in any of that either. But if Werenski did for whatever reason, I'd certainly have interest. Tough to say what I'd pay for it because I don't see the Sharks being a contender during the term of Werenski's deal and we have Mukhamadullin and Dickinson on the way. I think we need to trade for RHD's that can play top pairing and/or second pairing.

 

[OrrNumber4]

BTW, I could see Werensky hitting the market. They have Mateychuk and jiricek already drafted along with severson signed long term. Provorov is a to-be-ufa that could be a nice target for GMMG, but werensky has just 3 years left at 9.5M per, so I wonder if the jackets wouldnt be willing to deal him for a nice package. His value is well below Dahlin for me given injury history too, but he would be a solid top pairing add.

It seems clear the sharks will need to add a top pairing D (or two). Who else do you think GMMG could target either through UFA or trade that would fit the bill and, if trade, what might be a good deal?

No to Provorov. I'll be honest...were he a legit franchise talent, I'd overlook his bad character, but it's not worth it for a 2nd-pairing defenseman.

Werenski would be a good guy to add, but at this stage of the rebuild, he's not a great fit in age. Maybe on the cheap, but my guess is he'd cost a decent prospect + pick. A contending team will gladly pay that.

 

[Lebanezer]

Sharks need to target RHD, unless the LHD is a legit #1.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Sharks need to target RHD, unless the LHD is a legit #1.

Agreed. It ought to be their top priority moving forward but they rarely become available that makes sense for our team in our situation due to clauses.