I don't know if that's going to be a big shift. What sort of scholarship is the NCAA going to give to a nothingburger 20-year-old who isn't going to draw fans or significantly elevate the stock of their program? That would still make the CHL an attractive thing for over-agers because if they've been in the league since they were 17 have no pro contracts on the horizon then they can stay for one more year and have a full ride 4-year scholarship to any Canadian university.
Maybe you see some movement to the NCAA for American CHLers who make it to their age-20 season and don't really want to stick around and get a Canadian degree that might not have as much cache or value back home, but if you're some kid from Sicamous, BC or Weyburn, SK then the ability to maybe go to UBC or Regina U. or wherever on the CHL's dime is probably an enticing option.
I'm no expert, but my gut says the impact is bigger for the Musty's and above-levels of prospect. Certainly the Americans, but possibly the Canadians as well.
Lots of the very best players are kind of immediately skilled out of the CHL post-draft, and could do better playing in what seems like a more structured, mature game at the top of the NCAA. For the very best prospects, it's Celebrini route, but instead of USHL, playing CHL first. And for the Musty's, it's NCAA in your D+1 and beyond, because it's a slight step up in terms of level of play and professionalism
only at the best programs.
Again, just a total gut vibe and no great confidence in how the actual dynamics will play out.
