OT: Severe Weather Discussion III

[Nosebleed40]

It’s too far out to say for sure, but all guidance seems to signal for some kind of tropical system east of the Bahamas around Friday of next week

Can’t pinpoint anything at this point, but definitely worth watching

It’s too far out to say for sure, but all guidance seems to signal for some kind of tropical system east of the Bahamas around Friday of next week

Can’t pinpoint anything at this point, but definitely worth watching

Tres - do you think the Bahamas will be storm free beginning this weekend until early next week?

 

[Tres Peleches]

Tres - do you think the Bahamas will be storm free beginning this weekend until early next week?

Yes and no. The hurricane will more than likely stay far enough away where the only threat would be strong surf on Atlantic Ocean facing beaches, though you’re in the middle of the Bahamas it seems so not as bad as say, Abaco or something like that

However, a cold front looks like it’s going to get hung up around there. While there’s always a threat for showers and thunderstorms basically any day in the tropics, that boundary will likely lead to more widespread thunderstorm activity across whatever parts of the Bahamas it settles across

So tropically, I think you’re fine based on what I see, but at the same time I think it will also likely be more showery/stormy than usual

 

[Nosebleed40]

Yes and no. The hurricane will more than likely stay far enough away where the only threat would be strong surf on Atlantic Ocean facing beaches, though you’re in the middle of the Bahamas it seems so not as bad as say, Abaco or something like that

However, a cold front looks like it’s going to get hung up around there. While there’s always a threat for showers and thunderstorms basically any day in the tropics, that boundary will likely lead to more widespread thunderstorm activity across whatever parts of the Bahamas it settles across

So tropically, I think you’re fine based on what I see, but at the same time I think it will also likely be more showery/stormy than usual

Okay - thanks so much. Iffy forecast.

 

[Bones45]

Tampa is going to get sunk. Hold on boys.

Isnt Homeland from Tampa Bay?

 

[Tres Peleches]

Okay - thanks so much. Iffy forecast.

How did the weather turn out, btw?

As for Tampa, yeah… someone between Tampa and say Sarasota is going to get hit directly by Milton… not good

 

[TeamKidd]

How did the weather turn out, btw?

As for Tampa, yeah… someone between Tampa and say Sarasota is going to get hit directly by Milton… not good

really shocking storm from a meteorological perspective. i have never in my life seen a storm bomb out this fast (maybe gilbert, idk). hard to say exact point of landfall but anything slightly north of tampa bay would be absolutely catastrophic. "They" say that it might do 175 Billion dollars in damage - given how many people live there, I could believe it.

If anyone knows anyone in that area that is staying, please tell them to change their minds - they still have time tomorrow morning.

 

[Chardo]

really shocking storm from a meteorological perspective. i have never in my life seen a storm bomb out this fast (maybe gilbert, idk). hard to say exact point of landfall but anything slightly north of tampa bay would be absolutely catastrophic. "They" say that it might do 175 Billion dollars in damage - given how many people live there, I could believe it.

If anyone knows anyone in that area that is staying, please tell them to change their minds - they still have time tomorrow morning.

Tropical depression to category 5 in less than 48 hours. Amazing.

Seems like everyone in the Tampa area is heeding the warning and already got out. Hope they have something to come back to. Also hope the handful of insurers still in Florida survive.

Hockey is meaningless in the grand scheme, but we might find the Lightning displaced for a long time, like the Saints after Katrina.

 

[MJF]

Tropical depression to category 5 in less than 48 hours. Amazing.

Seems like everyone in the Tampa area is heeding the warning and already got out. Hope they have something to come back to. Also hope the handful of insurers still in Florida survive.

Hockey is meaningless in the grand scheme, but we might find the Lightning displaced for a long time, like the Saints after Katrina.

Almost everybody. 2 idiot friends, one in Oldsmar and one in Indian Shores refuse to evacuate.

 

[TeamKidd]

Almost everybody. 2 idiot friends, one in Oldsmar and one in Indian Shores refuse to evacuate.

I never understood why people choose to stay. As a meteorologist, i'm always looking at risk assessment and I never understood the upside to staying. If you leave and nothing happens, you can return, curse the meteorologist and move on with your life - but if you stay - especially when we are talking about this level of risk with a major hurricane and associated winds and storm surge - then the downside is your life...but even IF you survive....power and water will surely be knocked out for an extended period of time...who wants to live through that?

I realize some people cant afford to leave and they need help in doing so, but that brand of idiot machismo doesnt often end well.

My wife follows some famous people on IG and they have 2 week old twins and were planning on staying in Sarasota...because they have a generator. my one question - you are betting the life and well being of your entire family including 2 week old babies - on the reliability of your generator? what if it goes out? what if you run out of fuel? Just go. It isnt worth it by a long shot.

We all went through Hurricane Sandy and just being without power for 2 weeks - nevermind water or sewer or cell service or the florida heat - was bad enough. Time is just about up.

What I tell people in an evacuation zone during major hurricanes like this who decide to stay is - do everyone a favor and write your social security number in Sharpie on your arm - it'll make it easier for us to identify your body later on.

 

[MJF]

I never understood why people choose to stay. As a meteorologist, i'm always looking at risk assessment and I never understood the upside to staying. If you leave and nothing happens, you can return, curse the meteorologist and move on with your life - but if you stay - especially when we are talking about this level of risk with a major hurricane and associated winds and storm surge - then the downside is your life...but even IF you survive....power and water will surely be knocked out for an extended period of time...who wants to live through that?

I realize some people cant afford to leave and they need help in doing so, but that brand of idiot machismo doesnt often end well.

My wife follows some famous people on IG and they have 2 week old twins and were planning on staying in Sarasota...because they have a generator. my one question - you are betting the life and well being of your entire family including 2 week old babies - on the reliability of your generator? what if it goes out? what if you run out of fuel? Just go. It isnt worth it by a long shot.

We all went through Hurricane Sandy and just being without power for 2 weeks - nevermind water or sewer or cell service or the florida heat - was bad enough. Time is just about up.

What I tell people in an evacuation zone during major hurricanes like this who decide to stay is - do everyone a favor and write your social security number in Sharpie on your arm - it'll make it easier for us to identify your body later on.

It's not just the staying part that confounds me for the 2 people I mentioned, it's what they could be faced with afterwards. Being cut off from services, what happens when the gas cans you filled up run out, will there be roads that are travel-worthy, cand FD or EMS get to me, etc. These are people who were in NYC during Sandy so they're well aware of how long it took some portions of the Island to get their electricity back due to the sheer number of power lines that were taken out. If it was me, and having family in Breezy Point that had to rebuild after Sandy, I get more jittery watching these hurricanes become mega storms and I would rather evacuate than try to ride one out.

 

[MJF]

Any of you meteorologists want to work in Tampa?

https://x.com/i/web/status/1846205151985516822

 

[Rehabguy]

It's not just the staying part that confounds me for the 2 people I mentioned, it's what they could be faced with afterwards. Being cut off from services, what happens when the gas cans you filled up run out, will there be roads that are travel-worthy, cand FD or EMS get to me, etc. These are people who were in NYC during Sandy so they're well aware of how long it took some portions of the Island to get their electricity back due to the sheer number of power lines that were taken out. If it was me, and having family in Breezy Point that had to rebuild after Sandy, I get more jittery watching these hurricanes become mega storms and I would rather evacuate than try to ride one out.

I live right outside of Tampa in the northern most part of Pinellas County a town called Tarpon Springs. My home is right on the Gulf Coast about 30 yards from the water. I'm on a point bordering the mouth of the Anclote River on one side and the Gulf of Mexico on the other. It would have been stupid for anyone to have stayed in my subdivision as after Helene we had 5 foot surges hitting some of the homes immediately adjacent to the Gulf destroying about 40 cars and flooding out their first floors. We were expecting 15 foot surges if Milton was about 100 miles north of where it landed. On Monday I told my wife after I put on our hurricane shutters that we may lose everything we own including our home that night as we prepared to evacuate to Tallahassee. My house is built on cement block stilts with solid 15 foot concrete walls in the perimeter all the way up to the roof which is tied down with hurricane straps. It has a few breakaway walls so if we did have an 11 foot surge they would give way to decrease the water pressure on the foundation. My home is rated to take on 12 foot surges. If they were 15 foot surges the house would have been destroyed.

Several of our neighbors homes who built after 2003 have features such as these. Meanwhile, as I was evacuating one of my neighbors came up to me and another neighbor and asked if we were evacuating. Mind you, we lived in flood zone AE which is mandatory evac so I couldn't believe she was even asking this question. She said she planned to have some construction workers stay with her and since they were young men and they had a "tarp" she believed they would be protected. A "tarp". That is the nonsense some of us have to put up down here but I kept my mouth shut and just wished her luck.

We didn't get any serious damage to our neighborhood with Milton BTW as the eye went well south of Tarpon Springs BTW, but the silly risks some people take are mind boggling plus they put all first responders lives at risk for making such dumb decisions.