Confirmed with Link: Seth Jarvis signs 8 year, $63.2m extension ($7.5m aav, 9th year deferred salary and $30m signing bonus)

[Chrispy]

It’s cool but I’m also concerned about the precedent it sets.

Not that I think it’s wrong or bad at all. But like… we might’ve just showed the league a gamechanging loophole that apparently only we knew about, and we showed our cards and made that big reveal to save only $400k/yr on the cap (<1% of cap ceiling).

Not much of a first mover’s advantage. Edmonton thanks us.

I think the league will rule the deferred signing bonus will still need to fall under the overall contract rules (can’t change compensation more than a certain amount from year to year and rules about the changes in yearly compensation overall.)

So you could do more than what Carolina did, but the extreme McDrai hypotheticals wouldn’t be allowed under the current CBA.

 

[cptjeff]

LOL, is anyone but Jarvis gonna buy this?



This is good:

 

[Blueline Bomber]

It’s cool but I’m also concerned about the precedent it sets.

Not that I think it’s wrong or bad at all. But like… we might’ve just showed the league a gamechanging loophole that apparently only we knew about, and we showed our cards and made that big reveal to save only $400k/yr on the cap (<1% of cap ceiling).

Not much of a first mover’s advantage. Edmonton thanks us.

I get what you're saying, but it's a loophole that every GM knew about. The Coyotes used it on Shane Doan's last contract.

The issue isn't whether GMs knows about it. It's about asking players to delay getting paid in order to help the team. Some players are OK with doing that. I imagine many wouldn't be. It's why you're rarely seeing this clause used.

 

[AD Skinner]

So… more than Svech even without the deferred payment. Wow. Nice deal, and only highlights even more how nice the Svech contract is lol.

I think gun to my head I’d say Jarvis is better than Svechnikov. That is of course not to say svechnikov is bad, he’s very very good

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Jah…EEZUZ, Dom’s model is predicting Jarvis could have been worth up to $12 million over the course of this contract. That’s a massive saving, if accurate.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I think gun to my head I’d say Jarvis is better than Svechnikov. That is of course not to say svechnikov is bad, he’s very very good

They have slightly different strengths...I think peak Svech is currently better, but Jarvy is way more consistent

 

[DaveG]

I love how this deal seems to have collectively broken the rest of the league

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

LOL, is anyone but Jarvis gonna buy this?

I mean, I would, but I have an odd sense of humor.

 

[Chrispy]

I think gun to my head I’d say Jarvis is better than Svechnikov. That is of course not to say svechnikov is bad, he’s very very good

I think recency bias has us thinking about 23-24 ACL recovery Svech rather than the Svech of 2022 and 2023.

I’m pretty confident he at least gets back to the 30 goal scorer and likely continues to improve.

 

[Svechhammer]

Jah…EEZUZ, Dom’s model is predicting Jarvis could have been worth up to $12 million over the course of this contract. That’s a massive saving, if accurate.

If both he and Svech live up to their hype and meet their potential, we could have an elite offensive attack on the cheap in just a couple seasons

Those are big ifs, though.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I love how this deal seems to have collectively broken the rest of the league

All over 400k

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Love this deal. I'm gonna type out my thoughts now that the little man is napping. Fascinating deal.

It was a perfect storm for Jarvis to be the guy to first do the 9th year deferred payment to bring his caphit down. I suppose how it works is he gets paid $3.2M the day after his contract expires, so probably July 1st 2032. That $3.2M doesn't count for his caphit since it accrues after the contract is over. So the contract has a cap "savings" of $3.2M divided by 8 years. I haven't read any of this but that's what I am inferring.

Jarvis is 22. He knows he has two big deals in his potential career, so this isn't the last one, like Jake Guentzel. I agree with the speculation before that someone posted that we probably tried this on Guentz to bring his caphit down, but Guentz either wasn't buying it or always wanted to test the market. Probably a combination of the two. He had no loyalty here and didn't want the cap shenanigans.

Jarvis will be filthy rich regardless. With his bonus structure, he'll assuredly make more than $3.2M already just by being able to make investments on his bonuses being paid off earlier in the structure. I'm sure Tulsky explained this to his agent. It's a win win. He gets that little bag at the end as a thank you but he can still be investing his $30M or so bonus money at the starts of seasons. Jarvis probably doesn't know or care about this, but he trusts his agent, and I'm sure he has good financial advisers taking care of him.

Jarvis, unlike Guentzel, feels a strong loyalty to the team. He loves the coach, who trusted him a lot as a rookie. Jarvis was a Rod guy from day 1. Not in terms of playstyle, but more for hard work, commitment to the game, to practice, to the gym. I'm sure Jarvis feels free to be a bit of a "guinea pig" so to speak for this type of contract. He probably likes the fact that it helps the team, but more than that he probably loves the bonus structure.

Aho probably wouldn't have taken the deal back when his ELC expired, b/c he was bent on going to UFA status sooner. We're lucky he also loves it here, and re-upped safely the year before on a fair market deal, perhaps slightly better than fair market.

It's also worth mentioning that some of our stars would get more points on other teams. Mainly for committing less defensively, but also star players on other teams play more during the regular season. We try to roll lines and keep our forwards low. Our highest TOI was Aho last year at 19:37, 42nd among forwards. Next up was Seth Jarvis at 18:45 (70th). Then Necas at 122.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

What’s crazy is that Jarvis absolutely left money on the table here. Even if we ignore the delayed payment, if he had signed a shorter deal (say 4-5 years), he definitely would have made more money over the course of his career signing a new deal at 26-27.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

What’s crazy is that Jarvis absolutely left money on the table here. Even if we ignore the delayed payment, if he had signed a shorter deal (say 4-5 years), he definitely would have made more money over the course of his career signing a new deal at 26-27.

One underrated factor here is that signing Jarvis for the full 8 years is possible precisely because the Canes are so picky in free agency. Most contending clubs are less flexible when it comes to salary and are forced to sign their young guys to bridge contracts, which consequently balloons their salary in later years and further constricts their contention windows. See, for example, the Rangers with guys like Lafreniere, Shestyorkin, and K'Andre Miller.

 

[cptjeff]

What’s crazy is that Jarvis absolutely left money on the table here. Even if we ignore the delayed payment, if he had signed a shorter deal (say 4-5 years), he definitely would have made more money over the course of his career signing a new deal at 26-27.

Yeah, I was fully expecting any long term deal to begin with an 8.

He wants to be here and left money on the table and agreed to a contract structure that limits his ability to make money though investments in order to help game the cap.

If he's not already the most beloved player on the team, he's gonna be. But of course, he is, so that just gets magnified.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

What’s crazy is that Jarvis absolutely left money on the table here. Even if we ignore the delayed payment, if he had signed a shorter deal (say 4-5 years), he definitely would have made more money over the course of his career signing a new deal at 26-27.

Meh, there’s never any definitelies in sports. It’s always a choice to bet on yourself vs. lock-in, but there are a lot of things outside of the control of a player when it comes to what can happen to their body and their game over the course of 8 years.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Money, beyond a certain threshold, is about keeping score. Who values me more?

$65m is generational wealth. So is $60m. So is $20m. This contract made Jarvis feel valued, and that's the only thing that matters, period.

So glad he's gonna be with us for many seasons to come. I'd love to see him retire a Hurricane, but I don't know if that's how things will work in this new era.

 

[LakeLivin]

Jah…EEZUZ, Dom’s model is predicting Jarvis could have been worth up to $12 million over the course of this contract. That’s a massive saving, if accurate.

As I said before, I see Jarvis as having a Marchand-esque effect on the ice (less the dickishness, of course) which I anticipate will only become stronger. I.e., very disruptive to the opponent and always a complete pita to play against. I don't know how the metrics specifically quantify it, but to me that factor bumps a players value up way beyond typical scoring stats and I"m sure that's part of Dom's model.

As an aside, Jarvis and Marchand seem like good examples of where quickness can be more effective than pure speed on the ice.

 

[Lempo]

Good.

 

[htdoc]

Jarvis just played a season with his shoulder strapped and it still kept falling out over and over. Of course he took the 8 year deal now instead of betting on a shorter term to setup a second payday…

Love this is done. Love we have him locked up for 8 years. Great for him, great contract for the team. Win win win win all around. Couldn’t have worked out better for all parties involved.

 

[mouser]

is the deferred payment just the difference in the normally calculated over 8 years cap hit and the actual cap hit? so, 7.9. - 7.5 = 400k per year? 3.2 million total paid day one of year 9?

given where the cap should to be in 9 years, insert sam adams "drink beer from a bottle? BRILLIANT!" guys here.

edit - allegedly the deferred money never hits the cap? wow

The deferred money hits the cap, but what happens is the NPV (Net Present Value) of the deferred payment is calculated in the year(s) it is earned in the contract. All deferred payments must be assigned to one of more of years 1-8, and the contract structure must abide by the CBA year to year variance restrictions.

For example with Slavin's contract, what happened is:
- Total payment over Slavin's contract is $51.69M. Which would be a $6.461M AAV.
- Per reports the year 7 bonus of $4.55M is being deferred to year 9. This causes the NPV of the year 7 bonus to be $520k lower, for a total of $4.03M against the cap.
- The total valuation of the contract is thus reduced to $51.17M, which comes out to a $6.396M AAV.
- Total cap savings were $520k / 8 years = $65k per year.

Per reports the Jarvis contract has somewhere around $3.2M in NPV discounts. The exact AAV and deferred details have yet to be published. This should mean one or more of the payments has been deferred a longer period of time than Slavin's example contract.

 

[Bunch of Jurcos]

Wonderful! I've got my next jersey purchase lined up.

I'm less concerned with the 9th year deferment, it's cool to know it's possible, but the fact that the Canes obviously have a plan in place to go after someone big and need to do out of the box moves like this to save AAV. I'm interested in the bigger shoe yet to drop.

 

[moses malone 12]

I get what you're saying, but it's a loophole that every GM knew about. The Coyotes used it on Shane Doan's last contract.

The issue isn't whether GMs knows about it. It's about asking players to delay getting paid in order to help the team. Some players are OK with doing that. I imagine many wouldn't be. It's why you're rarely seeing this clause used.

quite possibly, this is the reason Guentzel did not re-sign. too much deferred comp. evidently, Canes structured slavin contract with deferred comp as well so they are trying to get as many long-term deals as possible structured this way.

personally, I never bought into the argument that Guentzel simply liked Tampa more even though its offer was slightly less than the Canes in gross dollars. evidence leans to Canes back loading a big chunk of the contract to year 9. Guentzel said not so fast Tommy Dundo.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

quite possibly, this is the reason Guentzel did not re-sign. too much deferred comp. evidently, Canes structured slavin contract with deferred comp as well so they are trying to get as many long-term deals as possible structured this way.

personally, I never bought into the argument that Guentzel simply liked Tampa more even though its offer was slightly less than the Canes in gross dollars. evidence leans to Canes back loading a big chunk of the contract to year 9. Guentzel said not so fast Tommy Dundo.

It's possible that Guentzel just preferred Tampa all along. The lack of income tax is a significant selling point to the Florida teams even if Tampa isn't quite as good as they used to be because of the shedded depth over the years and lack of a farm system. I wouldn't get too worked up about it. The Canes took their shot and offered market value, but Guentzel wanted to go to Tampa. They pivoted to retaining Necas instead.

 

[NotOpie]

The issue isn't whether GMs knows about it. It's about asking players to delay getting paid in order to help the team. Some players are OK with doing that. I imagine many wouldn't be. It's why you're rarely seeing this clause used.

There's risk on both sides. Obviously there's player injury risk for the team (which exists in any contract), but there is also making sure that the deferred money is available. Essentially, Dundon can "invest" the $3.2 million and it grows over time. Jarvis shoulders the time value of money risk.