Sens vs Habs Under 30

[Rafafouille]

If every single OTT guy is clearly better, then explain how the Sens only finished with two more points than MTL in the standings, despite the Habs having another disastrous season in the injuries department?

Who is doing all the heavy lifting on the Habs? Matheson? Gallagher? Montembeault and his .903 save-percentage?

GG

You really need someone to spell it out for you? If the Senators had our save percentage over the season instead of their atrocious goalie performance, they go from 281 goals against and -31 to 250 goals against and +0 and probably edge the Capitals out of their playoff spot.


Yes Montembault would've tremendously helped them and having the 9th leading D scorer in the NHL in Matheson instead of Chabot playing half a season would've helped too.

 

[Help]

pretty close, but i gotta give it to the habs. cole and nick have demonstrated their ability to step up in the playoffs. thats the kicker for me

 

[Crow]

Neither really knocks me off my feet.

Sens have had more opportunities/time to prove me wrong about being underwhelmed.

Going with habs, even though I’m more of a sens fan.

 

[Lshap]

Right now, Suzuki is the best player on either team. Stutzle had a terrific season the year before, but he'd have to produce 90 points+ more than once before it's considered his norm. He's young and absolutely could, but right now I'm picking the Montreal C who's also young and keeps improving from one season to the next.

Tkachuk is currently better than any Montreal winger. Slafkovsky might/could/will make this comparison interesting, but until he does it's Brady.

Batherson vs. Caufield is interesting. Caufield is more valuable if he scores at the rate he did in previous seasons. But, like Stutzle, he has to establish that high level before 40 goals is considered his norm. Batherson gets the edge right now.

Dach vs. Norris is even more interesting. Two mystery boxes of big potential, limited by health and incomplete sample sizes. No point comparing them, but both are exciting wildcards.

Montembeault currently gives Montreal an edge in nets moving forward. Habs also have a couple of very highly-ranked prospects, but I'm not up on Ottawa's goalie prospects so I won't compare what both teams' future looks like in nets.

Guhle and Sanderson are good-looking young D. Both are young and developing. Montreal has a few excellent defence prospects who are thisclose to making the club so, based on potential, the Habs' D looks better moving forward.

Overall, the easy guess is Ottawa ends up with better offence and Montreal with better defence and goaltending.

 

[wedge]

right now, it's the Sens. Many of the guys on our list are still not in the NHL. It could be different in two years but, for now, it's the Sens AINEC

 

[Pavels Dog]

Right now, Suzuki is the best player on either team. Stutzle had a terrific season the year before, but he'd have to produce 90 points+ more than once before it's considered his norm. He's young and absolutely could, but right now I'm picking the Montreal C who's also young and keeps improving from one season to the next.

Stützle had an off year and still scored at the same rate that Suzuki did this year.

Guhle and Sanderson are good-looking young D. Both are young and developing. Montreal has a few excellent defence prospects who are thisclose to making the club so, based on potential, the Habs' D looks better moving forward.

Nice attempt to put Guhle on the same level as Sanderson.
Reinbacher is the big hope for a #1D in montreal but in all honesty he had a poor season (salvaged somewhat by a solid run in the AHL to end things), so it's very much TBD.

 

[Legend123]

And what has Montreal’s current core done to display that? Are you referring to 2021?

Partly yea and the way they play during a rebuild

Stützle had an off year and still scored at the same rate that Suzuki did this year.


Nice attempt to put Guhle on the same level as Sanderson.
Reinbacher is the big hope for a #1D in montreal but in all honesty he had a poor season (salvaged somewhat by a solid run in the AHL to end things), so it's very much TBD.

Suzuki has a higher defensive impact. It's like comparing barkov to draisaitl. I'd rather barkov

 

[DiglettDangles]

What's the point of comparing the Under 30 rosters of two rebuilding teams?
That eliminates Giroux and Hamonic + the terrible goaltenders on the OTT side, and a bunch of deadweight on the MTL side.
Either compare the full rosters, or bring the bar down a bit like U25 which is also widely used...

 

[Lshap]

Stützle had an off year and still scored at the same rate that Suzuki did this year.


Nice attempt to put Guhle on the same level as Sanderson.
Reinbacher is the big hope for a #1D in montreal but in all honesty he had a poor season (salvaged somewhat by a solid run in the AHL to end things), so it's very much TBD.

Stutzle scored 18 goals. Suzuki scored 33. Not close to the same rate of scoring. What we know about Stutzle is he's gone from 58 to 90 to 70 points. There's no valid way to declare 70 pts an "off-year" because he produced 90 points once. For all we know, 90 is his career best. Meanwhile, Suzuki has gone from 61 to 66 to 77 points. Why not follow the trajectory and recognize he's only getting better.

As I said, both players are young and have time to establish their 'normal'. Based on the most recent season, Suzuki is ahead. If that changes, so be it.

As for Guhle, I'm not 'attempting' anything. He's developing into an excellent defenceman who is very much on the same level as Sanderson, given their early stages of development. Notice I didn't actually compare them, since both are very young and already making an impact. Most of what they'll become is still potential, so declaring one on a different level is meaningless. I did compare both teams' D, but I was clear that while Montreal's D looks better, it's also just potential at this point.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Stutzle scored 18 goals. Suzuki scored 33. Not close to the same rate of scoring. What we know about Stutzle is he's gone from 58 to 90 to 70 points. There's no valid way to declare 70 pts an "off-year" because he produced 90 points once. For all we know, 90 is his career best. Meanwhile, Suzuki has gone from 61 to 66 to 77 points. Why not follow the trajectory and recognize he's only getting better.

As I said, both players are young and have time to establish their 'normal'. Based on the most recent season, Suzuki is ahead. If that changes, so be it.

As for Guhle, I'm not 'attempting' anything. He's developing into an excellent defenceman who is very much on the same level as Sanderson, given their early stages of development. Notice I didn't actually compare them, since both are very young and already making an impact. Most of what they'll become is still potential, so declaring one on a different level is meaningless. I did compare both teams' D, but I was clear that while Montreal's D looks better, it's also just potential at this point.

Stützle is 3 years younger, even a bad year (by his standards) still makes his trajectory much more promising than Suzuki at the equivalent age. You're basically punishing Stützle for having an elite year last season because it makes the imaginary "trajectory" less linear.

As for Guhle, no, he's not on the level of Sanderson. It's not very close either.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

sens and I dont think its that close

 

[Lshap]

Stützle is 3 years younger, even a bad year (by his standards) still makes his trajectory much more promising than Suzuki at the equivalent age. You're basically punishing Stützle for having an elite year last season because it makes the imaginary "trajectory" less linear.

As for Guhle, no, he's not on the level of Sanderson. It's not very close either.

You've declared last season a "Bad year" for Stutzle, his previous season "His standards", and you've created a trajectory for him, all based entirely on your personal hope.

Nothing wrong with hope, as long as you recognize it for what it is. And as long as you realize your personal hope doesn't count as actual evidence.

As for Guhle, Sanderson and the overall defence, good luck with the flag-waving.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

you've created a trajectory for him, all based entirely on your personal hope.

The same can be said for all of MTL's prospects that haven't made the league yet, or the young guys who are still developing in the league. If we use this argument for every player, this poll shouldn't be close.

Stutzle, Tkachuk, Sanderson, Chychrun, Chabot, Batherson, etc. are all much more established than the MTL counterparts.

 

[Lshap]

The same can be said for all of MTL's prospects that haven't made the league yet, or the young guys who are still developing in the league. If we use this argument for every player, this poll shouldn't be close.

Stutzle, Tkachuk, Sanderson, Chychrun, Chabot, Batherson, etc. are all much more established than the MTL counterparts.

My original post was very clear about comparing players' actual NHL seasons versus projecting players' future potential. Some of the Sens are more established than the Habs, others are not.

 

[983 others]

why didnt you include josh anderson for the habs under 30 group?

 

[Bouboumaster]

why didnt you include josh anderson for the habs under 30 group?

We don't want to talk about that

 

[bert]

Sens but I think half those players leave in the next year or so

Yeah with all those expiring deals. Wait what?

Imagine using AINEC when their team, with more NHL experience, barely outperforms the Habs.

Switch the goalies theres probably a 30 point difference.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Habs have lost 9 or 10 straight games to the Sens.
So senators

 

[Sasha Orlov]

No I don't need you to fabricate how you personally know the sens good players and how they will all force the team to trade them while under team control. They are under contract, when have you seen a team with players in their early 20's all force deals out of town? Show me one reference point. Oh it has never happened ok good. Glad we cleared that up.

You think every early 20s player would have to be traded from Ottawa for the Habs under 30 to be better?

Could have saved yourself some time and said “yes, I need it explained very slowly and with no big words”

 

[A Loyal Dog]

Yeah with all those expiring deals. Wait what?


Switch the goalies theres probably a 30 point difference.

But our goalie is also under 30

Also, while the Sens players are more established right now, as Lshap mentioned: most of Habs core (Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Guhle, Dach, Newhook, Montembeault, etc) are always improving (without any fall backs so far).

And, let's compare the Habs prospect pool vs the Sens prospect pool. Reinbacher, Hutson, Dobes, Fowler, Engstrom, Beck, Kapanen, Mailloux, Struble, Mesar, Xhejak, Barron, Tuch, etc. VS ???. The Sens might have the worst prospect pool in the NHL.

So, yeah, my vote stays with the Habs Under 30.

 

[Pavels Dog]

You've declared last season a "Bad year" for Stutzle, his previous season "His standards", and you've created a trajectory for him, all based entirely on your personal hope.

Nothing wrong with hope, as long as you recognize it for what it is. And as long as you realize your personal hope doesn't count as actual evidence.

As for Guhle, Sanderson and the overall defence, good luck with the flag-waving.

I'm not rooting for either of these teams so it's a bit funny your only argument is essentially calling me a homer.

Bottom line without talking about hope or bias is that Stützle at 22 has shown a higher ceiling than Suzuki has at soon to be 25. That's "actual evidence". Will Suzuki ever hit 80+ points? 90+ points? Pure speculation, and imo some wishful thinking involved in thinking linear improvement will continue forever.

 

[General Fanager]

Habs easy, especially considering the list is missing Reinbacher, Beck, Struble, AX, Fowler, Primeau, Montambeault, Konyushkov, Engstrom, etc.

and whoever they take at # 5

 

[Lshap]

I'm not rooting for either of these teams so it's a bit funny your only argument is essentially calling me a homer.

Bottom line without talking about hope or bias is that Stützle at 22 has shown a higher ceiling than Suzuki has at soon to be 25. That's "actual evidence". Will Suzuki ever hit 80+ points? 90+ points? Pure speculation, and imo some wishful thinking involved in thinking linear improvement will continue forever.

I didn't call you a homer; I said your descriptions were wrong. You called Stutzle's 90 point season his "Standard" and last year an "Off year", which is completely arbitrary and made up. You've finally corrected it by calling that season his "Ceiling" – a more accurate description. Meanwhile, Suzuki has gone from 61 to 66 to 77 points and 21 to 26 to 33 goals. His young career continues to be a straight upward trajectory – also an accurate description. Suzuki has also outproduced Stutzle every season except one, from two years ago.

22-year old Stutzle may reach his ceiling again because he's done it once. 24-year old Suzuki may reach that ceiling or he may sustain a higher level for longer, because he's consistently improving every year without any off-years. Which is why I stand by what I said:

As I said, both players are young and have time to establish their 'normal'. Based on the most recent season, Suzuki is ahead. If that changes, so be it.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

most of Habs core (Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Guhle, Dach, Newhook, Montembeault, etc) are always improving (without any fall backs so far).

His young career continues to be a straight upward trajectory

Suzuki may reach that ceiling or he may sustain a higher level for longer, because he's consistently improving every year without any off-years

This is just wishful thinking from a Habs perspective. Habs players will continue to improve and not have off years? You can't play the trajectory game for one team and not the other.

Sens core is already better, as proven by the results of this poll. Yes the Habs have much much more prospects, which could change who's under 30 looks better, but they still need to make the NHL and prove what their potential actually is. Yes Reinbacher and Hutson look good, but who says they even reach the levels Chabot or Chychrun (for example) already are?

 

[David Suzuki]

I didn't do that exactly for this reason, to NOT come up with those stupid baseless empty statements you see all the time on the internet. If I say something it's because I have made some research and I am able to build a factual argument. The scholar way vs internet lol

Tell us then oh wise one why the Sens suck so much year after year with such an enhanced group of scholarly peer reviewed players under the age of 25?