Sens vs Habs Under 30

[Lshap]

This is just wishful thinking from a Habs perspective. Habs players will continue to improve and not have off years? You can't play the trajectory game for one team and not the other.

Sens core is already better, as proven by the results of this poll. Yes the Habs have much much more prospects, which could change who's under 30 looks better, but they still need to make the NHL and prove what their potential actually is. Yes Reinbacher and Hutson look good, but who says they even reach the levels Chabot or Chychrun (for example) already are?

Did you completely miss everything I said? Seriously... either respond to what's actually written or don't waste time.

EDIT: I was going to make a joke about your line, "The Sens core is better, as proven by the results of this poll", but I'll let that message speak for itself.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Hey if all of our guys get better and become bonafide first liners after our rebuild like all the sens guys did who knows , habs might be able to muster up *checks standings* 26th overall in the NHL standings!

 

[Byron Bitz]

Sens are better right now but Habs have more potential. If I had to choose one I’d take the Habs. That Sens core has been together for several years now and can’t make the playoffs, that’s a big red flag for me

 

[Bouboumaster]

Sens are so great that they're going to suck ass yet again next year

Habs are going to finish above them

 

[Xspyrit]

Lol

What is funny exactly? That I don't give Reinbacher the nod automatically? I said he could end up quite better but do you think Zub is some kind of nobody? lol a lot of teams would kill to have him

Cohesive, playing for the team, chemistry, committed to the long term picture / plan etc

Something ottawa knows nothing about so no surprise u don't know as well

Ottawa was stuck in Melnyk's land (or no man's land) for a while... of course you'd rather have Molson, Hughes/Gorton and Marty St. Louis than Melnyk, Dorion and DJ Smith lol. It starts with the leadership for the men managing your franchise

People talk and wonder why Ottawa hasn't reach its potential... even though the reason was clear for years and for me it was undeniable after the absolutely terrible off-season Dorion pulled off for 2020-21. What is crazy is it was just after that Ottawa had one of the best drafts haul in NHL history

 

[CanadienShark]

I think you have to vote Sens here at the moment. They're simply further ahead in development and have a lot of players with high potential to grow still. Would I trade the Habs group for them? I'm not sure, I'm pretty happy with the Habs group for now.

 

[Legend123]

What is funny exactly? That I don't give Reinbacher the nod automatically? I said he could end up quite better but do you think Zub is some kind of nobody? lol a lot of teams would kill to have him

View attachment 884662



Ottawa was stuck in Melnyk's land (or no man's land) for a while... of course you'd rather have Molson, Hughes/Gorton and Marty St. Louis than Melnyk, Dorion and DJ Smith lol. It starts with the leadership for the men managing your franchise

People talk and wonder why Ottawa hasn't reach its potential... even though the reason was clear for years and for me it was undeniable after the absolutely terrible off-season Dorion pulled off for 2020-21. What is crazy is it was just after that Ottawa had one of the best drafts haul in NHL history

Truly, I hope your team the best next season! Make the playoffs please, the sens arena is always wild come playoffs time

 

[LarKing]

Sens pretty easily. They have elite talent and good secondary pieces. They really just need the goaltending and they're a playoff team.

Habs seem like they could really use another lottery pick. I do like what they've been doing recently though

 

[SpezDispenser]

Yes! Finally something the Sens win.

 

[biturbo19]

The main thing about the Sens group, is that i think that on paper when you break things down player vs player, they probably come out ahead. By a little bit. But the problem is...these guys don't seem to ever really add up to the sum of their parts on the ice. For whatever reason. It just doesn't seem to work right.

So i think it's close enough overall, that i might actually just go with the Habs group.

 

[Xspyrit]

You really need someone to spell it out for you? If the Senators had our save percentage over the season instead of their atrocious goalie performance, they go from 281 goals against and -31 to 250 goals against and +0 and probably edge the Capitals out of their playoff spot.


Yes Montembault would've tremendously helped them and having the 9th leading D scorer in the NHL in Matheson instead of Chabot playing half a season would've helped too.

I'm not among those who look to blame goalies automatically (I'm a goalie myself) but it's hard to avoid the fact that the Sens goaltending was atrocious this season. Under DJ Smith, team defense had a terrible tendency to GIFT goals against so the sad thing is it got gradually fixed with the coaching change, but goaltending was even worse.

Stutzle scored 18 goals. Suzuki scored 33. Not close to the same rate of scoring. What we know about Stutzle is he's gone from 58 to 90 to 70 points. There's no valid way to declare 70 pts an "off-year" because he produced 90 points once. For all we know, 90 is his career best. Meanwhile, Suzuki has gone from 61 to 66 to 77 points. Why not follow the trajectory and recognize he's only getting better.

As I said, both players are young and have time to establish their 'normal'. Based on the most recent season, Suzuki is ahead. If that changes, so be it.

As for Guhle, I'm not 'attempting' anything. He's developing into an excellent defenceman who is very much on the same level as Sanderson, given their early stages of development. Notice I didn't actually compare them, since both are very young and already making an impact. Most of what they'll become is still potential, so declaring one on a different level is meaningless. I did compare both teams' D, but I was clear that while Montreal's D looks better, it's also just potential at this point.

I would bet a good amount that Sanderson vs Guhle is not going to be close in the future. I would also bet Stutzle over Suzuki even if he is a great talent

Tell us then oh wise one why the Sens suck so much year after year with such an enhanced group of scholarly peer reviewed players under the age of 25?

Sometimes I get a bit tired of repeating but that point was already addressed. Of course, any person with a brain who can read understands that this poll has nothing to do with standings.

Truly, I hope your team the best next season! Make the playoffs please, the sens arena is always wild come playoffs time

Dear mother of G, another retorting with that standings argument in a poll that has nothing to do with that? lol


Trade Suzuki, Slafkovsky, Caufield, Newhook, Guhle, Hutson, Mailloux, Reinbacher for Stützle, Tkachuk, Batherson, Pinto, Chabot, Sanderson, Chychrun, Zub and the Habs would easily be a playoffs team and maybe more

 

[Legend123]

I'm not among those who look to blame goalies automatically (I'm a goalie myself) but it's hard to avoid the fact that the Sens goaltending was atrocious this season. Under DJ Smith, team defense had a terrible tendency to GIFT goals against so the sad thing is it got gradually fixed with the coaching change, but goaltending was even worse.



I would bet a good amount that Sanderson vs Guhle is not going to be close in the future. I would also bet Stutzle over Suzuki even if he is a great talent



Sometimes I get a bit tired of repeating but that point was already addressed. Of course, any person with a brain who can read understands that this poll has nothing to do with standings.



Dear mother of G, another retorting with that standings argument in a poll that has nothing to do with that? lol


Trade Suzuki, Slafkovsky, Caufield, Newhook, Guhle, Hutson, Mailloux, Reinbacher for Stützle, Tkachuk, Batherson, Pinto, Chabot, Sanderson, Chychrun, Zub and the Habs would easily be a playoffs team and maybe more

I meant it. Playoff hockey in Ottawa is always exciting.

 

[Samsquanch]

No mention in here of the fact that Stutzle injured his wrist in the 4th game of the year, and played through it for the rest of the season. Also played through a shoulder injury until he shut it down for good in the final stretch. Which perfectly explains why his goals and shooting percentage took a nose dive. It was obvious how hesitant to shoot he was out there in hindsight.

But don't kid yourself, he's far and away the most talented forward on either team. And his down year is still likely going to end up being better than most of the Habs forwards career years.

And l see no mention of Pinto or Greig- who are both close to untouchable for the Sens. And I would take both over many of the Habs best and brightest. They both have a mysteriously tantalizing ceiling, and a high floor at the very least. High end 3rd liners and maybe much more.

 

[dirtydanglez]

sens have elite talent, habs do not.

 

[Xspyrit]

I meant it. Playoff hockey in Ottawa is always exciting.

While there's always the "derp derp arguments", there's also the possibility to push the reflection deeper, which is what people who lead and manage things do. I'll be using your post to provide the breakdown of Ottawa's season.

DJ Smith is a great guy with very good interpersonal skills but he's made to be an assistant coach. It was very clear that his systems were not working out (particularly in the DZ and NZ) but the Sens were STUCK with him (because they were stuck with Dorion) since it took so long for the TEAM SALE. Once that happened, it didn't take long for the new ownership to "get rid" of them without creating a PR mess. At the first occasion, Dorion was fired and DJ was also out after 26 games. All that said, the sale happened way too close to training camp, so unfortunately changes couldn't be made in the off-season (nobody would fire their GM and coaching staff in September)


DJ Smith 26 games, 0.423 P% (28th)

Even Strength

50.19 xGF% (17th)
46.63 SCF% (27th)
49.46 HDCF% (19th)
49.68 CF% (18th)
50.78 SF% (14th)
90.29 SV% (19th)

All Strengths

52.30 xGF% (8th)
49.04 SCF% (21st)
51.58 HDCF% (15th)
51.34 CF% (10th)
52.21 SF% (9th)
88.56 SV% (28th)

Jacques Martin 56 games, 0.500 P% (24th)

Even Strength

50.87 xGF% (12th)
50.60 SCF% (17th)
50.05 HDCF% (18th)
51.22 CF% (12th)
51.08 SF% (12th)
88.99 SV% (30th)

All Strengths

51.69 xGF% (11th)
51.52 SCF% (13th)
50.34 HDCF% (17th)
51.53 CF% (10th)
51.42 SF% (13th)
88.40 SV% (30th)


Now, it would have been foolish to expect an INSTANT change in the way they play after 300+ games coached by DJ Smith. I had marked down mid-January where I started seeing a real impact from the change.

After January 13th, 45 games, 0.556 P% (19th)

Even Strength

52.52 xGF% (8th)
52.00 SCF% (9th)
51.48 HDCF% (15th)
52.01 CF% (9th)
52.32 SF% (9th)
89.04 SV% (30th)

All Strengths

53.60 xGF% (7th)
53.60 SCF% (7th)
52.05 HDCF% (14th)
52.46 CF% (8th)
52.71 SF% (7th)
88.53 SV% (30th)


Conclusion : Sens were a much better team a few weeks after the coaching change, once the players started to "fix" their bad habits due to years of wrongful coaching. They were "gift-wrapping" goals against a lot less than before, unfortunately goaltending was even worse than before though.

Of course some will keep being controlled by their biases and/or poor analytical skills, but based on advanced stats, they were a top-10 team in the 2nd half of the season. Better goaltending and efficient coaching from the start, Sens would have been a playoffs team easily, despite Norris, Stutzle and Chabot health status

Personally, my narrative was that this team wouldn't go anywhere with Dorion and DJ Smith since a few games into the 2020-21 season. Many Sens fans didn't have any trust in Dorion since the Zibanejad trade and they were all right.

 

[Golden_Jet]

While there's always the "derp derp arguments", there's also the possibility to push the reflection deeper, which is what people who lead and manage things do. I'll be using your post to provide the breakdown of Ottawa's season.

DJ Smith is a great guy with very good interpersonal skills but he's made to be an assistant coach. It was very clear that his systems were not working out (particularly in the DZ and NZ) but the Sens were STUCK with him (because they were stuck with Dorion) since it took so long for the TEAM SALE. Once that happened, it didn't take long for the new ownership to "get rid" of them without creating a PR mess. At the first occasion, Dorion was fired and DJ was also out after 26 games. All that said, the sale happened way too close to training camp, so unfortunately changes couldn't be made in the off-season (nobody would fire their GM and coaching staff in September)


DJ Smith 26 games, 0.423 P% (28th)

Even Strength

50.19 xGF% (17th)
46.63 SCF% (27th)
49.46 HDCF% (19th)
49.68 CF% (18th)
50.78 SF% (14th)
90.29 SV% (19th)

All Strengths

52.30 xGF% (8th)
49.04 SCF% (21st)
51.58 HDCF% (15th)
51.34 CF% (10th)
52.21 SF% (9th)
88.56 SV% (28th)

Jacques Martin 56 games, 0.500 P% (24th)

Even Strength

50.87 xGF% (12th)
50.60 SCF% (17th)
50.05 HDCF% (18th)
51.22 CF% (12th)
51.08 SF% (12th)
88.99 SV% (30th)

All Strengths

51.69 xGF% (11th)
51.52 SCF% (13th)
50.34 HDCF% (17th)
51.53 CF% (10th)
51.42 SF% (13th)
88.40 SV% (30th)


Now, it would have been foolish to expect an INSTANT change in the way they play after 300+ games coached by DJ Smith. I had marked down 11 games after the coaching change where I saw the biggest impact from the change.

After January 13th, 45 games, 0.556 P% (19th)

Even Strength

52.52 xGF% (8th)
52.00 SCF% (9th)
51.48 HDCF% (15th)
52.01 CF% (9th)
52.32 SF% (9th)
89.04 SV% (30th)

All Strengths

53.60 xGF% (7th)
53.60 SCF% (7th)
52.05 HDCF% (14th)
52.46 CF% (8th)
52.71 SF% (7th)
88.53 SV% (30th)


Conclusion : Sens were a much better team a few weeks after the coaching change, once the players started to "fix" their bad habits due to years of wrongful coaching. They were "gift-wrapping" goals against a lot less than before, unfortunately goaltending was even worse than before though.

Of course some will keep being controlled by their biases and/or poor analytical skills, but based on advanced stats, they were a top-10 team in the 2nd half of the season. Better goaltending and efficient coaching from the start, Sens would have been a playoffs team easily, despite Norris, Stutzle and Chabot health status

Personally, my narrative was that this team wouldn't go anywhere with Dorion and DJ Smith a few games into the 2020-21 season. Many Sens fans didn;t have any trust in Dorion since the Zibanejad trade and they were all right.

Should of added xGA as well.

 

[Xspyrit]

Should of added xGA as well.

Yeah but it's already a lot of information lol, some are going to be lost already. The improvement on xGF% is indeed due to the xGA/60 improvement. Sens were finally defending at a NHL level. I really liked DJ as a person and motivator but I wish Sens would have made these changes for 2021-22 (which was not possible though due to Melnyk/team for sale context). Some outsiders don't know/understand that