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Proposal: Sens - Avs trade

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Xspyrit said:
Too many missed games, too much uncertainty with Nichushkin, Sens don't touch this. Kovalenko doesn;t move the needle and Girard is not needed. Sens actually let go a slightly lesser version in Brannstrom (who has better advanced stats and ES production per minute the last 2 years)



Yeah even then, Norris is on pace for 36 goals and is an excellent 2-way center, plays a complete 200 ft game and is good on face-offs. His injuries seem to be behind but who knows

IF there was zero baggage with Nichushkin, I'd be all over this. I wouldn't want Girard though.



You guys really think Girard and Kovalenko have that much value?

thednvr.com

The curious case of Sam Girard - DNVR Sports

We're going to talk about Sam Girard today.
thednvr.com thednvr.com

I would NOT pick up Girard on waivers.



Girard has 2 more years at 5.0 AAV, I'm not touching that contract
Click to expand...
lol at referencing a Girard post from 2023 when they've completely changed their tune on him. For someone who doesnt get O zone starts with the top line like Makar/Toews, his analytics are pretty great and hes a breakout machine.

At $5M, nearly every team would take him without hesitation.
 
benfranklin said:
lol at referencing a Girard post from 2023 when they've completely changed their tune on him. For someone who doesnt get O zone starts with the top line like Makar/Toews, his analytics are pretty great and hes a breakout machine.

At $5M, nearly every team would take him without hesitation.
Click to expand...

Do you have any evidence? Because while I haven't checked on him this season, his analytics absolutely tanked the last 3 seasons.

Also that's pretty cool and all but he had 18 pts last season? OFD getting minutes and paid 5.0?
 
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I think, after all Sens fans have been through, they'd burn down the arena if that trade happened.

f*** off with that lol
 
Xspyrit said:
Do you have any evidence? Because while I haven't checked on him this season, his analytics absolutely tanked the last 3 seasons.
Click to expand...
Past 3 seasons ES to dissect. Also PK's which is a bonus since some dmen dont lately. If anything I see a solid 1B on many teams/2A on good teams dman, which is exactly what he is.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]TOI[/TD]
[TD]CF%[/TD]
[TD]FF%[/TD]
[TD]SF[/TD]
[TD]SA[/TD]
[TD]SF%[/TD]
[TD]GF[/TD]
[TD]GA[/TD]
[TD]GF%[/TD]
[TD]xGF[/TD]
[TD]xGA[/TD]
[TD]xGF%[/TD]
[TD]SCF[/TD]
[TD]SCA[/TD]
[TD]SCF%[/TD]
[TD]HDCF[/TD]
[TD]HDCA[/TD]
[TD]HDCF%[/TD]
[TD]HDGF[/TD]
[TD]HDGA[/TD]
[TD]HDGF%[/TD]
[TD]PDO[/TD]
[TD]Off. Zone Faceoff %[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-25[/TD]
[TD]Cale Makar[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]418.02[/TD]
[TD]55.08[/TD]
[TD]54.25[/TD]
[TD]224[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]57.58[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]54.29[/TD]
[TD]21.97[/TD]
[TD]15.57[/TD]
[TD]58.52[/TD]
[TD]253[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]61.41[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[TD]71[/TD]
[TD]56.44[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]42.86[/TD]
[TD]0.988[/TD]
[TD]65.77[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-25[/TD]
[TD]Devon Toews[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]375.60[/TD]
[TD]54.24[/TD]
[TD]52.22[/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD]142[/TD]
[TD]55.35[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]46.43[/TD]
[TD]16.85[/TD]
[TD]14.69[/TD]
[TD]53.42[/TD]
[TD]200[/TD]
[TD]144[/TD]
[TD]58.14[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]72[/TD]
[TD]48.2[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]41.18[/TD]
[TD]0.968[/TD]
[TD]62.28[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-25[/TD]
[TD]Samuel Girard[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]428.25[/TD]
[TD]54.07[/TD]
[TD]53.42[/TD]
[TD]192[/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]52.46[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]46.81[/TD]
[TD]18.42[/TD]
[TD]18.22[/TD]
[TD]50.27[/TD]
[TD]211[/TD]
[TD]172[/TD]
[TD]55.09[/TD]
[TD]82[/TD]
[TD]81[/TD]
[TD]50.31[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]33.33[/TD]
[TD]0.971[/TD]
[TD]51.64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23-24[/TD]
[TD]Cale Makar[/TD]
[TD]60[/TD]
[TD]1087.88[/TD]
[TD]56.62[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]645[/TD]
[TD]546[/TD]
[TD]54.16[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]59.14[/TD]
[TD]53.67[/TD]
[TD]41.17[/TD]
[TD]56.59[/TD]
[TD]612[/TD]
[TD]420[/TD]
[TD]59.3[/TD]
[TD]233[/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD]56.28[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]53.85[/TD]
[TD]1.016[/TD]
[TD]63.97[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23-24[/TD]
[TD]Devon Toews[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[TD]1498.82[/TD]
[TD]54.7[/TD]
[TD]54.12[/TD]
[TD]880[/TD]
[TD]761[/TD]
[TD]53.63[/TD]
[TD]79[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]59.4[/TD]
[TD]73.96[/TD]
[TD]58.38[/TD]
[TD]55.89[/TD]
[TD]796[/TD]
[TD]593[/TD]
[TD]57.31[/TD]
[TD]327[/TD]
[TD]272[/TD]
[TD]54.59[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]60.27[/TD]
[TD]1.019[/TD]
[TD]57.85[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23-24[/TD]
[TD]Samuel Girard[/TD]
[TD]76[/TD]
[TD]1387.90[/TD]
[TD]52.57[/TD]
[TD]51.22[/TD]
[TD]759[/TD]
[TD]706[/TD]
[TD]51.81[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]46.22[/TD]
[TD]61.35[/TD]
[TD]58.47[/TD]
[TD]51.2[/TD]
[TD]697[/TD]
[TD]609[/TD]
[TD]53.37[/TD]
[TD]271[/TD]
[TD]280[/TD]
[TD]49.18[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]48.39[/TD]
[TD]0.982[/TD]
[TD]51.29[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22-23[/TD]
[TD]Cale Makar[/TD]
[TD]60[/TD]
[TD]1087.88[/TD]
[TD]56.62[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]645[/TD]
[TD]546[/TD]
[TD]54.16[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]59.14[/TD]
[TD]53.67[/TD]
[TD]41.17[/TD]
[TD]56.59[/TD]
[TD]612[/TD]
[TD]420[/TD]
[TD]59.3[/TD]
[TD]233[/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD]56.28[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]53.85[/TD]
[TD]1.016[/TD]
[TD]63.97[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22-23[/TD]
[TD]Devon Toews[/TD]
[TD]80[/TD]
[TD]1498.82[/TD]
[TD]54.7[/TD]
[TD]54.12[/TD]
[TD]880[/TD]
[TD]761[/TD]
[TD]53.63[/TD]
[TD]79[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]59.4[/TD]
[TD]73.96[/TD]
[TD]58.38[/TD]
[TD]55.89[/TD]
[TD]796[/TD]
[TD]593[/TD]
[TD]57.31[/TD]
[TD]327[/TD]
[TD]272[/TD]
[TD]54.59[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]60.27[/TD]
[TD]1.019[/TD]
[TD]57.85[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22-23[/TD]
[TD]Samuel Girard[/TD]
[TD]76[/TD]
[TD]1387.90[/TD]
[TD]52.57[/TD]
[TD]51.22[/TD]
[TD]759[/TD]
[TD]706[/TD]
[TD]51.81[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]46.22[/TD]
[TD]61.35[/TD]
[TD]58.47[/TD]
[TD]51.2[/TD]
[TD]697[/TD]
[TD]609[/TD]
[TD]53.37[/TD]
[TD]271[/TD]
[TD]280[/TD]
[TD]49.18[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]48.39[/TD]
[TD]0.982[/TD]
[TD]51.29[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21-22[/TD]
[TD]Cale Makar[/TD]
[TD]77[/TD]
[TD]1464.38[/TD]
[TD]55.73[/TD]
[TD]55.3[/TD]
[TD]894[/TD]
[TD]727[/TD]
[TD]55.15[/TD]
[TD]87[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]64.44[/TD]
[TD]71.78[/TD]
[TD]53.52[/TD]
[TD]57.29[/TD]
[TD]807[/TD]
[TD]590[/TD]
[TD]57.77[/TD]
[TD]317[/TD]
[TD]258[/TD]
[TD]55.13[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]62.5[/TD]
[TD]1.031[/TD]
[TD]60.25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21-22[/TD]
[TD]Devon Toews[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[TD]1291.52[/TD]
[TD]57.1[/TD]
[TD]56.48[/TD]
[TD]819[/TD]
[TD]618[/TD]
[TD]56.99[/TD]
[TD]79[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]64.75[/TD]
[TD]63.33[/TD]
[TD]47.83[/TD]
[TD]56.97[/TD]
[TD]707[/TD]
[TD]523[/TD]
[TD]57.48[/TD]
[TD]278[/TD]
[TD]236[/TD]
[TD]54.09[/TD]
[TD]40[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]61.54[/TD]
[TD]1.027[/TD]
[TD]54.55[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21-22[/TD]
[TD]Samuel Girard[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]1227.48[/TD]
[TD]51.66[/TD]
[TD]50.39[/TD]
[TD]687[/TD]
[TD]663[/TD]
[TD]50.89[/TD]
[TD]61[/TD]
[TD]59[/TD]
[TD]50.83[/TD]
[TD]49.86[/TD]
[TD]51.99[/TD]
[TD]48.95[/TD]
[TD]607[/TD]
[TD]552[/TD]
[TD]52.37[/TD]
[TD]216[/TD]
[TD]238[/TD]
[TD]47.58[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]50.82[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]51.91[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
Xspyrit said:
It's weird because I'd swear that the article I linked (which totally exposes Girard) was written by
AJ Haefele...

A.J. Haefele was born in Aurora, Colorado, raised in Katy, Texas and is the Colorado Avalanche beat reporter for DNVR.
Click to expand...
I dont know what up with AJ this season. The whole DNVR crew was shuffled and he only writes now and isnt on the podcasts at all. He is one of the more knowledgable Avs guys, but also can tell he holds grudges if guys dont give him an interview or whatever media wise.
 
Id do it. as Pierce already wrote, when you factor Nuke's off ice problems, this would be a pretty good deal for the Avs. defence would take a hit short term, which is not ideal considering the clowns we have in the net, but I still like it more going forward. bring Gulyayev to substitute Girard and be done with it.
 
Pierce Hawthorne said:
Only because of Nichushkins substance issues would I do this. In a vacuum the value heavily favors Ottawa quite frankly, but once you factor in the Nichushkin off ice stuff it swings in the Avs favor for sure.


Avs would be in a real tough spot without Girard though.
Click to expand...
This is ridiculous.

25 years old "82 game avg" season is 31-36-67. Has played at least 70 games save the Covid season, 3x 30 goal scorer, 2 time 20 goal scorer. He's only scored less than 20 goals once- the Covid season

29 years old "82 game avg" season is 19-25-44 but it's been 9 seasons since he's played as much as 70 games, 0 x 30 goal scorer. 2x 20 goal scorer

Tkachuk has 54 more goals in 57 less games, and 40 more assists.

The off ice doesn't "swing" it in Tkachuk's favor. Tkachuk is far and away better, and Girard and Kovalenko don't bridge the gap. W/o the on ice issues it's fairish value but may not make sense for either.

With the concerns it's a joke of an offer.
 
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Without a guarantee that Nikushkin won’t relapse again, which is a big question mark, this this utterly brutal for Ottawa.

They should do it
 
Assuming a sober Nuke, the value is there and may even tilt in the Sens favor, but c'mon, anything but a big named player of equal star power will not be a "win" in the eyes of Sens fans and i dont blame them.
 
Dr Quincy said:
This is ridiculous.

25 years old "82 game avg" season is 31-36-67. Has played at least 70 games save the Covid season, 3x 30 goal scorer, 2 time 20 goal scorer. He's only scored less than 20 goals once- the Covid season

29 years old "82 game avg" season is 19-25-44 but it's been 9 seasons since he's played as much as 70 games, 0 x 30 goal scorer. 2x 20 goal scorer

Tkachuk has 54 more goals in 57 less games, and 40 more assists.

The off ice doesn't "swing" it in Tkachuk's favor. Tkachuk is far and away better, and Girard and Kovalenko don't bridge the gap. W/o the on ice issues it's fairish value but may not make sense for either.

With the concerns it's a joke of an offer.
Click to expand...

Relevant range?!

Over the last 3 years, Nichushkin has been .8X ppg twice and in the .9s once. Tkachuk is exactly the same. Yes, Brady is younger. But Nichushkin also is a hound defensively and strong on the PK. But Brady makes 8.2 while Nichushkin makes 6.2.

So yeah, if you ignore the off ice problems, the superiority isn’t so clear cut.
 
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Xspyrit said:
IF there was zero baggage with Nichushkin, I'd be all over this. I wouldn't want Girard though.
Click to expand...
if there were no baggage with nichushkin then he wouldnt be available, kind of like if norris never had a bad shoulder. thats why i think it works as is.
 
Hope OP become the new GM for the Sens

That way, the team would be stucked in the basement for ever and than moved to Québec City
 
Take away the issues, I think Nickushkin is the overall better player. But you have risk, age, contract and everything else to consider. I don't see why Sens would do this and take on additions.
 
benfranklin said:
I dont know what up with AJ this season. The whole DNVR crew was shuffled and he only writes now and isnt on the podcasts at all. He is one of the more knowledgable Avs guys, but also can tell he holds grudges if guys dont give him an interview or whatever media wise.
Click to expand...

I don't know about the Avs medias and anything but that would be my analysis too. If you look at the graph below, his game tanked drastically in 2021-22 and 2022-23 both at ES defense and offense (the most important factors for me). He plays against good competition (QoC) but data shows he still has better QoT

Girard-Player-Card.png


Then looking at 2023-24 and this season, out of 13 Avs D-men, he ranks 3rd in 5 on 5 xGF/60 but 10th in 5 on 5 xGA/60, 5th overall for xGF%. Did his role got harder recently? His quality of teammates dropped? He's an undersized D-man making 5 M$ per season, would you like to see a comparison with Erik Brannstrom (regular season only lol)?

After watching my team (stupidly) let go Brannstrom because of a 2.0 QO, I would not claim Girard and his 5.0 AAV

dirtydanglez said:
if there were no baggage with nichushkin then he wouldnt be available, kind of like if norris never had a bad shoulder. thats why i think it works as is.
Click to expand...

Tkachuk too... but there is no IF in his case... Everyone except a few players (McDavid, Mackinnon, Makar, Kaprizov, Stutzle, Hughes, Matthews, etc) should be available for the right return.

Note that I was replying to the initial OP offer. Regarding Norris for Nichuskin, I don't know but I might be tempted as they would need that type of player, and that would allow Pinto as the 2nd line center and maybe unblock him as he is struggling right now. I don't think Ottawa would consider in the real world though because of the potential problem.
 
TheBeard said:
What color is the sky in your world?
Click to expand...
I guess it's the same color Brady sees when the puck is going the other way. I'm not saying you won't find needs that find what Brady brings more valuable to their team, but I think when you look at overall game, Brady is not the better player.
 
Xspyrit said:
I don't know about the Avs medias and anything but that would be my analysis too. If you look at the graph below, his game tanked drastically in 2021-22 and 2022-23 both at ES defense and offense (the most important factors for me). He plays against good competition (QoC) but data shows he still has better QoT

Girard-Player-Card.png


Then looking at 2023-24 and this season, out of 13 Avs D-men, he ranks 3rd in 5 on 5 xGF/60 but 10th in 5 on 5 xGA/60, 5th overall for xGF%. Did his role got harder recently? His quality of teammates dropped? He's an undersized D-man making 5 M$ per season, would you like to see a comparison with Erik Brannstrom (regular season only lol)?

After watching my team (stupidly) let go Brannstrom because of a 2.0 QO, I would not claim Girard and his 5.0 AAV
Click to expand...

The Avs lost a lot of talent off the roster after the Cup win, so I'd say the quality of the guys Girard has been playing with has decreased pretty significantly. Sure, Makar and Toews still get to play a lot of minutes with Mack and Rantanen, but the 2nd line forwards that Girard gets to play with went from being Kadri/Nuke/Burakovsky to Evan Rodriguez, Ross Colton, LOC type of guys. This year, they at least have Mittelstadt at 2C, but with all the injuries, he's been playing with Kovalenko, Kiviranta, LOC, etc., instead of 2 of Drouin/Lehk/Nuke/Rantanen. So, Girard is still mostly playing with guys who should be bottom 6 forwards or AHL call ups. In addition to scoring fewer points, the lesser forwards also don't possess the puck as well, so there's more chances for the other team to counter attack. And with Manson being hurt, he's also had a revolving group of partners, which doesn't help either.
 
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John Mandalorian said:
Relevant range?!

Over the last 3 years, Nichushkin has been .8X ppg twice and in the .9s once. Tkachuk is exactly the same. Yes, Brady is younger. But Nichushkin also is a hound defensively and strong on the PK. But Brady makes 8.2 while Nichushkin makes 6.2.

So yeah, if you ignore the off ice problems, the superiority isn’t so clear cut.
Click to expand...

“If you ignore everything but this one thing they are equal!!!!!”. Holy moly the delulu takes in this thread.
 
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