Proposal: Sens - Avs trade

[benfranklin]

Too many missed games, too much uncertainty with Nichushkin, Sens don't touch this. Kovalenko doesn;t move the needle and Girard is not needed. Sens actually let go a slightly lesser version in Brannstrom (who has better advanced stats and ES production per minute the last 2 years)



Yeah even then, Norris is on pace for 36 goals and is an excellent 2-way center, plays a complete 200 ft game and is good on face-offs. His injuries seem to be behind but who knows

IF there was zero baggage with Nichushkin, I'd be all over this. I wouldn't want Girard though.



You guys really think Girard and Kovalenko have that much value?

The curious case of Sam Girard - DNVR Sports

We're going to talk about Sam Girard today.

thednvr.com

I would NOT pick up Girard on waivers.



Girard has 2 more years at 5.0 AAV, I'm not touching that contract

lol at referencing a Girard post from 2023 when they've completely changed their tune on him. For someone who doesnt get O zone starts with the top line like Makar/Toews, his analytics are pretty great and hes a breakout machine.

At $5M, nearly every team would take him without hesitation.

 

[Xspyrit]

lol at referencing a Girard post from 2023 when they've completely changed their tune on him. For someone who doesnt get O zone starts with the top line like Makar/Toews, his analytics are pretty great and hes a breakout machine.

At $5M, nearly every team would take him without hesitation.

Do you have any evidence? Because while I haven't checked on him this season, his analytics absolutely tanked the last 3 seasons.

Also that's pretty cool and all but he had 18 pts last season? OFD getting minutes and paid 5.0?

 

[57special]

OP is a Sens fan? WTH?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

You guys really think Girard and Kovalenko have that much value?

The curious case of Sam Girard - DNVR Sports

We're going to talk about Sam Girard today.

thednvr.com

I would NOT pick up Girard on waivers.



Girard has 2 more years at 5.0 AAV, I'm not touching that contract

Cool, makes interactions with you a lot easier to deal with

 

[SpezDispenser]

I think, after all Sens fans have been through, they'd burn down the arena if that trade happened.

f*** off with that lol

 

[Xspyrit]

Cool, makes interactions with you a lot easier to deal with

It's weird because I'd swear that the article I linked (which totally exposes Girard) was written by
AJ Haefele...

A.J. Haefele was born in Aurora, Colorado, raised in Katy, Texas and is the Colorado Avalanche beat reporter for DNVR.

 

[benfranklin]

Do you have any evidence? Because while I haven't checked on him this season, his analytics absolutely tanked the last 3 seasons.

Past 3 seasons ES to dissect. Also PK's which is a bonus since some dmen dont lately. If anything I see a solid 1B on many teams/2A on good teams dman, which is exactly what he is.

	Player	GP	TOI	CF%	FF%	SF	SA	SF%	GF	GA	GF%	xGF	xGA	xGF%	SCF	SCA	SCF%	HDCF	HDCA	HDCF%	HDGF	HDGA	HDGF%	PDO	Off. Zone Faceoff %
24-25	Cale Makar	24	418.02	55.08	54.25	224	165	57.58	19	16	54.29	21.97	15.57	58.52	253	159	61.41	92	71	56.44	9	12	42.86	0.988	65.77
24-25	Devon Toews	20	375.60	54.24	52.22	176	142	55.35	13	15	46.43	16.85	14.69	53.42	200	144	58.14	67	72	48.2	7	10	41.18	0.968	62.28
24-25	Samuel Girard	24	428.25	54.07	53.42	192	174	52.46	22	25	46.81	18.42	18.22	50.27	211	172	55.09	82	81	50.31	9	18	33.33	0.971	51.64
23-24	Cale Makar	60	1087.88	56.62	55	645	546	54.16	55	38	59.14	53.67	41.17	56.59	612	420	59.3	233	181	56.28	28	24	53.85	1.016	63.97
23-24	Devon Toews	80	1498.82	54.7	54.12	880	761	53.63	79	54	59.4	73.96	58.38	55.89	796	593	57.31	327	272	54.59	44	29	60.27	1.019	57.85
23-24	Samuel Girard	76	1387.90	52.57	51.22	759	706	51.81	55	64	46.22	61.35	58.47	51.2	697	609	53.37	271	280	49.18	30	32	48.39	0.982	51.29
22-23	Cale Makar	60	1087.88	56.62	55	645	546	54.16	55	38	59.14	53.67	41.17	56.59	612	420	59.3	233	181	56.28	28	24	53.85	1.016	63.97
22-23	Devon Toews	80	1498.82	54.7	54.12	880	761	53.63	79	54	59.4	73.96	58.38	55.89	796	593	57.31	327	272	54.59	44	29	60.27	1.019	57.85
22-23	Samuel Girard	76	1387.90	52.57	51.22	759	706	51.81	55	64	46.22	61.35	58.47	51.2	697	609	53.37	271	280	49.18	30	32	48.39	0.982	51.29
21-22	Cale Makar	77	1464.38	55.73	55.3	894	727	55.15	87	48	64.44	71.78	53.52	57.29	807	590	57.77	317	258	55.13	40	24	62.5	1.031	60.25
21-22	Devon Toews	66	1291.52	57.1	56.48	819	618	56.99	79	43	64.75	63.33	47.83	56.97	707	523	57.48	278	236	54.09	40	25	61.54	1.027	54.55
21-22	Samuel Girard	67	1227.48	51.66	50.39	687	663	50.89	61	59	50.83	49.86	51.99	48.95	607	552	52.37	216	238	47.58	31	30	50.82	1	51.91

 

[benfranklin]

It's weird because I'd swear that the article I linked (which totally exposes Girard) was written by
AJ Haefele...

A.J. Haefele was born in Aurora, Colorado, raised in Katy, Texas and is the Colorado Avalanche beat reporter for DNVR.

I dont know what up with AJ this season. The whole DNVR crew was shuffled and he only writes now and isnt on the podcasts at all. He is one of the more knowledgable Avs guys, but also can tell he holds grudges if guys dont give him an interview or whatever media wise.

 

[Bone Breaker]

Id do it. as Pierce already wrote, when you factor Nuke's off ice problems, this would be a pretty good deal for the Avs. defence would take a hit short term, which is not ideal considering the clowns we have in the net, but I still like it more going forward. bring Gulyayev to substitute Girard and be done with it.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Only because of Nichushkins substance issues would I do this. In a vacuum the value heavily favors Ottawa quite frankly, but once you factor in the Nichushkin off ice stuff it swings in the Avs favor for sure.


Avs would be in a real tough spot without Girard though.

This is ridiculous.

25 years old "82 game avg" season is 31-36-67. Has played at least 70 games save the Covid season, 3x 30 goal scorer, 2 time 20 goal scorer. He's only scored less than 20 goals once- the Covid season

29 years old "82 game avg" season is 19-25-44 but it's been 9 seasons since he's played as much as 70 games, 0 x 30 goal scorer. 2x 20 goal scorer

Tkachuk has 54 more goals in 57 less games, and 40 more assists.

The off ice doesn't "swing" it in Tkachuk's favor. Tkachuk is far and away better, and Girard and Kovalenko don't bridge the gap. W/o the on ice issues it's fairish value but may not make sense for either.

With the concerns it's a joke of an offer.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Without a guarantee that Nikushkin won’t relapse again, which is a big question mark, this this utterly brutal for Ottawa.

They should do it

 

[benfranklin]

Assuming a sober Nuke, the value is there and may even tilt in the Sens favor, but c'mon, anything but a big named player of equal star power will not be a "win" in the eyes of Sens fans and i dont blame them.

 

[John Mandalorian]

This is ridiculous.

25 years old "82 game avg" season is 31-36-67. Has played at least 70 games save the Covid season, 3x 30 goal scorer, 2 time 20 goal scorer. He's only scored less than 20 goals once- the Covid season

29 years old "82 game avg" season is 19-25-44 but it's been 9 seasons since he's played as much as 70 games, 0 x 30 goal scorer. 2x 20 goal scorer

Tkachuk has 54 more goals in 57 less games, and 40 more assists.

The off ice doesn't "swing" it in Tkachuk's favor. Tkachuk is far and away better, and Girard and Kovalenko don't bridge the gap. W/o the on ice issues it's fairish value but may not make sense for either.

With the concerns it's a joke of an offer.

Relevant range?!

Over the last 3 years, Nichushkin has been .8X ppg twice and in the .9s once. Tkachuk is exactly the same. Yes, Brady is younger. But Nichushkin also is a hound defensively and strong on the PK. But Brady makes 8.2 while Nichushkin makes 6.2.

So yeah, if you ignore the off ice problems, the superiority isn’t so clear cut.