Your article is outdated. Here's the google search terms you need since apparently you don't know how to do proper research: "NHL canadian tv deal", "NHL US tv deal" and "Senators regional tv deal". All the numbers are clearly laid out.
Senators Revenue and Operating Income
- Thread starter Sweatred
- Start date
- Jan 28, 2019
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In one post you say future and in the next you say last season of normal attendance. You don't even know what you're talking about. Are you talking about future revenues for the team? Because you chose an outdated article to use as your arguing point and it's clearly wrong.
Beech
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- Nov 25, 2020
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Is the real danger here not the debt and its interest?
If accurate and is at 200 million, that would mean interest this year may be 10 million.
If he lost 30 million last year, what are his losses this year, similar, if not more? and so a further 30 million
Possibly making the debt on June of 2022 at 240 million
we do not know about taxes!! if on top and are per Micklebot's one time suggestion of 4-6 million. That could mean that moving outwards. 12 million in debt interest and 6 million in taxes. Almost 18 million is needed as an addition just to leave the team with 240 million.
the 2022/2023 season may need: player salary + costs + 18 million
so if the team needs 125-130 in revenue to operate at a high enough salary structure. The Sens may need (125 -130) + 18= 143-148 million
If the TV deals are indeed 72 million, it will mean 72 million must come from fans...Is that possible? The Mick once wrote ~ $60 per fan..~ 1.2 million fans are needed.
if regular season only (including preseason) = 27,900 fans
if 6 playoff games = ~ 21,800 fans
ouch..unless the team gets to ECF's pretty consistently, there are not enough games.
So the $60 has to jump to $70 and 6 playoff games ~ 18,700 still unreal
at $80 per fan ~and 6 playoff games ~ 16,400
I know equalization payments help, but how much are they? and how much would he get if his own revenue started climbing?
I have some doubt an 80 Million dollar payroll is possible.
@Micklebot , can you correct the possible taxes and dollar per fan? if higher than what I am remember, let me know.
If accurate and is at 200 million, that would mean interest this year may be 10 million.
If he lost 30 million last year, what are his losses this year, similar, if not more? and so a further 30 million
Possibly making the debt on June of 2022 at 240 million
we do not know about taxes!! if on top and are per Micklebot's one time suggestion of 4-6 million. That could mean that moving outwards. 12 million in debt interest and 6 million in taxes. Almost 18 million is needed as an addition just to leave the team with 240 million.
the 2022/2023 season may need: player salary + costs + 18 million
so if the team needs 125-130 in revenue to operate at a high enough salary structure. The Sens may need (125 -130) + 18= 143-148 million
If the TV deals are indeed 72 million, it will mean 72 million must come from fans...Is that possible? The Mick once wrote ~ $60 per fan..~ 1.2 million fans are needed.
if regular season only (including preseason) = 27,900 fans
if 6 playoff games = ~ 21,800 fans
ouch..unless the team gets to ECF's pretty consistently, there are not enough games.
So the $60 has to jump to $70 and 6 playoff games ~ 18,700 still unreal
at $80 per fan ~and 6 playoff games ~ 16,400
I know equalization payments help, but how much are they? and how much would he get if his own revenue started climbing?
I have some doubt an 80 Million dollar payroll is possible.
@Micklebot , can you correct the possible taxes and dollar per fan? if higher than what I am remember, let me know.
Micklebot
Moderator
- Apr 27, 2010
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The Canadian deals are in Canadian dollars, and the finer details of Tv deals aren't exactly know, we have a general idea though.
TSN regional deal was 400 mil CAD over 10 year, the deal was escalating but the degree to which it escalated is not public to my knowledge. Averages to 40 CAD mil a year or 30 USD but should in theory be higher as we are getting to the end of the escalating deal.
Sportsnet national deal was 5.2 billion CAD over 12 years, likely also escalating though I'm no sure. That should come to about 13.5 CAD mil on average per year, or 10.5 USD.
National US deals are 400 and 225 mil USD a year or roughly 19.5 mil per team. Not sure if that's escalating or flat, but it's up significantly from the roughly 6 mil a year they were getting from NBC.
So roughly 60+ mil USD a year in tv, up from around 47 previously when NBC still had the rights
- Jan 28, 2019
- 13,408
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These are good questions - the answers put how much money we really have for payroll etc.
As much as the US Tv deal helps it also will increase spending of all teams once we are past the Covid recovery years.
Micklebot
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- Apr 27, 2010
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I'm no accountant, and I don't recall estimating the teams tax burden , but it would vary year to year (are you maybe referring to property tax?). I imaging we didn't pay much in tax last year with a -30 mil OI, and I believe they can carry over prior year loses in years where we actually profit in order to reduce the tax burden.
Beech
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Almost a year ago you and I exchange posts. I thought that you had said 4-6 million. This is taxes as it relates to the arena and land. OI taxes, if losses occur would be per your yearly carryover. Which at this rate means the Sens will pay almost nothing in OI taxes.
Is the $60/fan accurate?
Micklebot
Moderator
- Apr 27, 2010
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Ok, so property tax, yeah, I could see it being around there, though that might have been an estimate based on a Downtown arena.
Not sure what you mean by 60/fan, but it sounds like the Forbes metric which is just total revenue divided by metro population. The previous season it nose dived for every team in the league because there were little to no gates relative to normal years
Beech
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I think you may be right.
It would seem that the Sens will max out at 60-65 million in salaries, and the Sens will lose 10 million in a non playoff year, break even by game 4-5 of the playoffs if in (home games only) and make 10 million in an ECF year. Which at 60 - 65 million in salary will not be likely unless another crazy 2017 run occurs.
Ground hog day, we started out here in 2012 or so.
I’ve been using 56M USD for total broadcast revenues knowing it’s conservative due to escalating deals with TSN and Rogers.
- Jan 28, 2019
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yes - that’s about what I see and that assumes normal attendance. The numbers will inflate when escrow recovery stops and with the US TV deal but the floor will go to $65-69+ soon too.
It’s a big ask to get this team to full cap if we don’t
a) improve # of tickets sold and average price per ticket
b) find an owner willing to eat $20-50 million… there aren’t currently many in North America, especially looking to own in cities the size of Ottawa.
Beech
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I have always assumed that :
tickets sold/fans
concession sold/fans
parking sold/fans
merchandize sold/fans
was a readily available number..and if you add sponsorship and so on. A dollar per fan number was available.
Early on, I assumed it to be as high as $100, I remember you correcting me and saying, No its closer to $57. Which surprised me a tad, I thought it was way higher. But then if you take away capital ticket portion and taxes, the team probably only sees 70-80% of every total dollar spent. Food concession contracts, etc. all reduce true revenue.
I have gone the last year plus on the belief of a fan representing ~ $60. It allows for calculating attendance needed.
If indeed at $60 a fan, the Sens don't stand a chance. It has to be around $80..
Doing some projections and back of the napkin math we are likely to see massive jumps in Cap numbers in 2025/26.
Based on 6B HRR
Upper Limit 107M
Floor 80M
Might be a good idea for Eugene to bail now.
Based on 6B HRR
Upper Limit 107M
Floor 80M
Might be a good idea for Eugene to bail now.
The number I have seen published for Ottawa is a few penny’s below 60.00 USD per fan.
That’s not really accurate. The market can bear it under the right conditions IMO. If the Canadian dollar crashes again we are in serious trouble. The US TV deal has changed the impact of the Canadian dollar on overall league revenues. A .60 cent dollar would absolutely crush all Canadian teams outside Toronto and Montreal.
Thanks for the additional context.
The Canadian TV deal does escalate, according to this article, which says the final year of the contract in 2025-26 will be mid-$500 million. So in year 9 (next year) I'm guessing they'd be closing in on $500 million per year - although the currency conversion does leave something to be desired. Also, haven't seen any provisions listed anywhere for re-negotiating based on expansion or some sort of addendum to the deal that includes extra funds in the case of additional teams coming into existence during the lifetime of the deal. Although they do make a point to say there's no riders on currency fluctuation, so they kind of got a little bit f***ed there.
Also, it sounds like the Canadian teams get a larger slice of the pie (estimated around $2.5 million each) due to something called Invasion fees according to Pierre Lebrun. So they might actually be getting closer to $17.5-$19.5 with that piece on top of the escalating yearly payments.
The regional deal definitely escalates and I had seen somewhere that the final years were in the $40-$44 million CAD range but obviously it's hard to pinpoint that exactly so we'll go with something more conservative like $37.5 million.
If we look at the math again and take the more conservative estimates across the board:
ESPN: $19.5 million USD
Rogers: $13.8 million USD
TSN: $29.5 million USD
Total: $62.8 million USD
That total is a far cry from the $41 million Sweatred was running with and proves he's definitively wrong about his calculations no matter how you add up the totals. There's simply no math that gets you to $41 million per year in total TV revenue for the club next year.
Beech
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GCK, look up. See the 10 posts previous. The numbers in them would suggest otherwise.
TV may be 60 plus million. The team might need ~ 140 million (at the low end). That could leave almost 80 million from fans.
Where will that dollar come from?
41 home dates, 2 pre season. From 0 to 16 home playoff dates. The arena is still ~ 18,000 capacity. You are talking $80-$90 per fan (US). So from $60 to possibly $90..We are talking a 50% increase in transferred costs.
Can you see the $12 parking become $18. The $30 becoming $45.
Sweetred's $25.50 has to become $38.25. I shudder to think what a beer will end up costing!!
Wow, lets hope otherwise. Would a good 1/2 dozen teams not collapse?
Golden_Jet
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- Sep 21, 2005
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Sorry to be bearer of bad news, but no chance.
Cap only goes up 1 million a year if HRR is over 4.8 B, until escrow is paid off, and escrow drops to a dumb 6% next year or year after.
Found an article with some projections, I would say your 15-20 million high on the upper limit.
So impossible with 1 million dollar increases.
When will the cap go up?
Micklebot
Moderator
- Apr 27, 2010
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So a ticket on average is $59, I read somewhere they expect another 10-15% in concessions (which I believe that number includes merch), and something like 50k a game in parking. That doesn't include boxes, or luxury seats (club bell, not sure about the molsen life or brookstreet loge).
Club bell is 470 or so seats, and costs about 14-15 k a season, so they get roughly 165-170 k a game off those if they are still selling them all (there was a waitlist prior to attendance tanking, not sure about now though). The the remaining ~17000 seats, if the sell 12000, that's about 700k in gates, another 70k in consecions, and 50k (maybe a bit less because that's a small crowd) in parking. So 800-830k a game, not including boxes. Sell 16k tickets and your around 1 mil plus boxes. Sell out and you probably get to around 1.2 mil
No clue how much they generate from boxes, there are companinies that act as a market place for suite owners to sell unused games, on these sites a suite will run you 3500-7000 depending on demand for that particular game or event. Gives you an idea though.
Things like merchandize is centrally generated revenue unless it's bought at the arena or at the sens store, so don't buy your jersey at Canadian Tire unless you want all 32 teams getting a cut.
Beech
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thanks Mick.
If you read GCK, he may have been the source of the sub $60 per fan(4-5 posts up). My apologies, I did not mean to put you through work.
Golden_Jet
Registered User
- Sep 21, 2005
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STH get 20% off concessions, and discounted parking depending on tenure. free parking after 10 years. So there are some other things to consider as well.
Are concessions still subbed out, like they once were, and contractor pays amount X for concessions to team.?
Are concessions still subbed out, like they once were, and contractor pays amount X for concessions to team.?
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