Confirmed with Link: Senators are for sale - and it’s a Gong Show

[Mingus Dew]

By the way, Ian Mendes and I'm pretty sure Bruce already reported that the bidders were getting frustrated like a month ago.

Fake news. Everything is fine, fine I tell you!

 

[IpsoPostFacto]

You're right, public perception in this situation doesn't really matter. It'll get done when it gets done and the owner will be the new owner. Everyone involved will make a lot of money. The Senators may become a winning organization, or they may not. Who knows!

With that said, "leaks" don't have to be, and usually aren't, made as some sort of strategic calculation or move with an ulterior purpose.

Guys like Friedman know a lot of people. They call and text them. See them for drinks and dinner. They have relationships. Those people talk and vent, because that's what people at any job working on any project do – talk and vent. Guys like Friedman than summarize and report it as things they're "hearing".

I don't think it's some chess game. It's just a bunch of people doing a job and talking about the job.

exactly. There has to be a large number of people involved here and friends of friends tangentially involved in the process.

Don't underestimate the personal value some people will attach to knowing a secret and willing to share it for no particular value.

Maybe it's an admin at the NHL "man, you can't believe how much Heinz Ketchup that Gary is chucking at the wall every time bidder x open his stupid mouth"

 

[SensFan1010]

I love how everyone on here knows better then GSP on the timing and structure of how a billion dollar sale should go down.

These guys are trying to sell an organization for 1 BILLION DOLLARS. It should come to no ones shock that this takes some time

 

[Beech]

We don’t know what team debt is. As reports are all over the map between 200-350 million CDN.
Bids are in US dollars not CDN dollars.

I know, When CDN, I worte CDN. Otherwise USD.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I know, When CDN, I worte CDN. Otherwise USD.

Yes mostly commenting on this, bid being CDN, when it’s US.

The hope is/was, ditto for here... suddenly a line up of carpet baggers... bid 1 B (Canadian),

 

[Beech]

I love how everyone on here knows better then GSP on the timing and structure of how a billion dollar sale should go down.

These guys are trying to sell an organization for 1 BILLION DOLLARS. It should come to no ones shock that this takes some time

it is not a 1 B sale.

it is ~ 900 M (USD) for the team

and ~ 900 M (USD) for a potential new arena development

only a moron would buy the Sens at 900 M USD. Even in the rosiest scenario the team and teh CTC generate ~ 200 M a year... they stand to break even or make a few pennies... How the bleep do you recover your 900 M purchase?????

you don't... you recoup a 1.8 B net package, if the new arena also generates some 100-200 million in extra revenue (namely leases and added events).

ergo the snag.... Lebreton

 

[Flamingo]

if you search on here as recently as 2020.. you would have seen numbers along the line of
team value ~ 550-600 Million
team debt ~ 200 million
after covid team debt became a staggering 300 million.
in that time frame (2020) team revenue was around 125 million

all these numbers were debated by us and in many instances articles and links were provided to substantiate

so in 2022 (mid summer)
team value ~ 600 Million
team debt ~ 300 million
team revenue ~ 110 million....would probably become 130 M since attendance rose in 2022/2023...would probably become 140 M since gambling has increased

How 10 bidders jump in? How did sell price become 850-900 M? How did things spiral upwards so wonderfully?

BULLSHITT...... Real-estate schemes.... wanting the government to pick up the tab.... EDMONTON style... or US style where governments build arenas for teams..

The hope is/was, ditto for here... suddenly a line up of carpet baggers... bid 1 B (Canadian), develop a new arena at 1 b (Canadian). Get the government to pick up the tab for 500-600 M and then commit to leases and long term rentals for million per year...

Only reality is hitting.... the Feds, Province and city are not committing... no cheque cuttings, no lease commitments...

suddenly with no 500-600 M in cash coming and a solid 20-50 M a year in guaranteed leases and rentals... the Sens return to being a 600 M team. And Lebreton becomes a 1 B white elephant.

Why do you think Hollywood boy wanted his 1 month exclusive time to work on Lebreton... he wanted 500-600 M and leases promised and guaranteed. He was no dummy.

If any of these owners plan to lean on government-funded arena development, I hope the door is closed on that immediately, before the sale is done.

 

[Beech]

Yes mostly commenting on this, bid being CDN, when it’s US.

The hope is/was, ditto for here... suddenly a line up of carpet baggers... bid 1 B (Canadian),

the numbers I am working with had the bid at 915 M USD.. I ball parked it at 1 B CDN. You are right, it is closer to 1.15 B cdn.

If teh bid is actually 1 B USD.... the carpet baggers better hope Hollywood boy does influence enough government agencies to commit to leases....wahhh

from 600 M to 1 B..... all hail, ED STELMACH.... the sisters need to send him a gift.

 

[Beech]

If any of these owners plan to lean on government-funded arena development, I hope the door is closed on that immediately, before the sale is done.

Premier Ed Stelmach, Alberta 2010. Lamont AL...20 minutes due north of EDMONTON.

builds them an arena, and the area booms.. government town, so who knows what leases... other developments move in to cater.

On a recent interview on TSN1200... I hear the Oilers generate ~ 220 M a year in real-estate revenue..

And since, Canada has been under the Ed Model.... that is why the 10 year battle in Calgary. They want Ed's model...

It is what they want here!!!! Ed's model.... Justin, Doug and Mark drop 500-600 M and add 30-50 M a year in leases.... Thank you Ed.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Premier Ed Stelmach, Alberta 2010. Lamont AL...20 minutes due north of EDMONTON.

builds them an arena, and the area booms.. government town, so who knows what leases... other developments move in to cater.

On a recent interview on TSN1200... I hear the Oilers generate ~ 220 M a year in real-estate revenue..

And since, Canada has been under the Ed Model.... that is why the 10 year battle in Calgary. They want Ed's model...

It is what they want here!!!! Ed's model.... Justin, Doug and Mark drop 500-600 M and add 30-50 M a year in leases.... Thank you Ed.

I’d say generating 650-700 k a day is a high number. That was a media radio guy that said it.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Fake news. Everything is fine, fine I tell you!

No one is saying everything is fine though.

We just don't know what is going on, assumption that everything is fine or that it is a catastrophe are just that, assumptions.

Benji said we'd find something out tomorrow and that we would be shocked. That's the only bit of hard info from an outsider I'd consider legit.

 

[Masked]

it is not a 1 B sale.

it is ~ 900 M (USD) for the team

and ~ 900 M (USD) for a potential new arena development

only a moron would buy the Sens at 900 M USD. Even in the rosiest scenario the team and teh CTC generate ~ 200 M a year... they stand to break even or make a few pennies... How the bleep do you recover your 900 M purchase?????

This is nonsensical gibberish.

How do you need to generate in excess of $200M to recover the cost of a capital asset with a value of $900M?

assennayo

 

[Beech]

I’d say generating 650-700 k a day is a high number. That was a media radio guy that said it.

jet,

even if the real-estate revenue is 1/2... so say 110 M per year. That pays off ~ 1.5 Billion in initial loan (@5% and 20 years).

granted the 110 M has expenses, so say 55 M is left. That pays ~ 900 M in initial loan at 5% and 20 years.

Not much changes, 30-50 M in government lease commitments and 500-600 M in government money up front.

Less that, this whole house of cards collapses..

 

[Golden_Jet]

This is nonsensical gibberish.

How do you need to generate in excess of $200M to recover the cost of a capital asset with a value of $900M?

assennayo

While I agree somewhat, there will be a big debt load, with big interest payments, after an arena is built, and whatever they leverage for the team in loans.
I don’t think there will be government money, other than infrastructure.

 

[Beech]

This is nonsensical gibberish.

How do you need to generate in excess of $200M to recover the cost of a capital asset with a value of $900M?

assennayo

Tranquilo,

You post is hard to understand. Can you re-write..

 

[Samboni]

Part of the pessimism expressed by some (including me) is the result of the bs put out by the media e.g. “deal should be announced by end of the week or early next”, etc. There’s way too much supposition and guessing on the air, online, or in the press. Stuff is being made up so the talking heads keep their audiences. They pretend that they are privy to inside info but they just make shit up.

 

[Golden_Jet]

jet,

even if the real-estate revenue is 1/2... so say 110 M per year. That pays off ~ 1.5 Billion in initial loan (@5% and 20 years).

granted the 110 M has expenses, so say 55 M is left. That pays ~ 900 M in initial loan at 5% and 20 years.

Not much changes, 30-50 M in government lease commitments and 500-600 M in government money up front.

Less that, this whole house of cards collapses..

Agree with mostly with this part, just don’t think we get a big government investment.

 

[Beech]

Agree with mostly with this part, just don’t think we get a big government investment.

it is where I believe the snag is.

the carpet baggers assumed/lined up for what they assumed was a bucket of cash... that is why I said ED ... he opened a door that they now want to jump through.

if that door is not open?.. this is not a 900 M USD team... not even close. The situation now is; okay how to move forward? Do you take a chance, do you bid 1 B usd (900m to 1 B usd) and hope the arena deal does become as sweet as you hope... or do you start hedging your bets????

Maybe add all sorts of conditions... I will pay 600 M now and a further 400 M if the arena unfolds as I like!!!!!

We went from an overflow of bidders of escalating numbers, to 4 bidders, Hollywood boy dropping out.. delay after delay...

we will see. Once Hollywood boy dropped out and spoke about the exclusivity with the arena...It told me it was not about the hockey team.... but the real-estate.

 

[Masked]

While I agree somewhat, there will be a big debt load, with big interest payments, after an arena is built, and whatever they leverage for the team in loans.
I don’t think there will be government money, other than infrastructure.

That's not talking about an arena, just the franchise itself being worth $900M and needing to generate over $200M a year to not make the owner a moron. Few assets have appreciated as considerably and as reliably as major league sports franchises. The expected capital gains alone have it make sense.

Based solely upon the purchase and sale prices, Melnyk's initial investment in the Senators will have had a 20 year annual rate of return of over 12% if it is sells for around the expected $1B.

Assen na yo!

 

[Golden_Jet]

That's not talking about an arena, just the franchise itself being worth $900M and needing to generate over $200M a year to not make the owner a moron. Few assets have appreciated as considerably and as reliably as major league sports franchises. The expected capital gains alone have it make sense.

Based solely upon the purchase and sale prices, Melnyk's initial investment in the Senators will have had a 20 year annual rate of return of over 12% if it is sells for around the expected $1B.

Assen na yo!

I’m aware of that thanks, I was just adding loan payments will also be a big hit.

 

[Nova Stutzlia]

On "Locked on Senators" (today), Dorian said "Hopefully, at some point in time, over the next 2 or 3 weeks, the decision is made on who'll be the future owner of the Senators"

26:00 - 27:30.

 

[Wondercarrot]

define what you mean by entitled, and why you attach such a negative connotation to it.

I know you’re entitled to your opinion as much as anyone else.

pretty much every owner of a pro sports team, by virtue of owning the team is entitled to operate their franchise as they want…. Explain why being entitled is such negative to you.

Sure but this is the last English class I’m going to give you, next time you don’t understand something feel free to take 5 seconds and look it up.

 

[pt_mck]

Because NHL teams are not public companies, public perception of the process does not matter.

Public perception matters.

Non disclosure agreements work both ways. It protects prospective owners as well from having their laundry aired out in public.

I know everyone would prefer some staged reality show type scenario with all the juicy bits on full display and temper tantrums and such. these things take their due time.

 

[Mingus Dew]

No one is saying everything is fine though.

We just don't know what is going on, assumption that everything is fine or that it is a catastrophe are just that, assumptions.

Benji said we'd find something out tomorrow and that we would be shocked. That's the only bit of hard info from an outsider I'd consider legit.

We're all just anxious and bored. Thus the rampant speculation.

Also I've been part of a good amount of f***ed up deals in my short career so it's fun being on the outside looking in.

 

[coladin]

We're all just anxious and bored. Thus the rampant speculation.

Also I've been part of a good amount of f***ed up deals in my short career so it's fun being on the outside looking in.

Agreed. Many effed up deals that will leave a mark.

I was approached to join the local investor group and was seriously considering it. But my partner and I both agreed that there will be cash calls. A 5M investment is not the scary part. But if this team loses $10-15M a year, what percentage am I paying? I am not shelling out $50-75K a year, hell no. Just got out of one effed up deal that cost ten times that.