Confirmed with Link: Senators are for sale - and it’s a Gong Show

[Do Make Say Think]

So Remington pulled a Melnyk: they thought they had more leverage than they actually had.

Too bad.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Remington didn't want to play according to the rules set out and wanted an unfair advantage over the other bidders by getting an exclusive negotiation window and they were basically using Ryan Reynolds as leverage for that. This not only would've soured the team and league's relationship with the other bidders, it may have exposed the team to a potential lawsuit in the future as well.

"Unfair advantage" isn't really the correct term. The Remington Group's bid hinged on the real estate component. And naturally, they wanted a chance to negotiate with the NCC and city to ensure that the terms of the land deal would justify paying such a high price (i.e. over $1B). As @PlayersLtd pointed out in this thread, "preferred bidder status" doesn't have much value.

My hunch is that Reynolds aligned himself with this group because they were the most bullish on moving downtown. And that's were the story lies. If you watch Welcome to Wrexham, it's not just about buying a soccer team. It's about buying a soccer team and reinvigorating the entire community around it.

I don't think the other serious bids hinge on moving to Lebreton. The groups are likely open to the possibility, but they'd be perfectly content staying in Kanata. For that reason, they're okay with waiting to negotiate with the NCC and seeing how it plays out in the coming years. But for Reynolds, a story of "we bought a hockey team and ran it pretty much the same way as it was run before, and let me tell you about the history of Kanata Centrum..." is not nearly as compelling.

My bet on what happens?

The team is sold to Andlauer and a minority partner (Jeff York + investors) for $700-750M, and they make it clear that while they're open to moving, there's no rush. The CTC is fine. Lots of people live in Kanata. We'll get 5 more years of humming and hawing from them and the NCC, and the team will continue to play out in Kanata for at least the next 10 years. Lebreton will remain a wasteland and embarrassment.

With that said, I don't think Andlauer would be a bad owner for the hockey team. From everything I've read, people think he'd be fantastic. And I don't doubt that he'd be committed to building a good on-ice product, which as a fan, is what I care about.

But for the city as a whole, not getting a downtown rink in the short term will be a massive missed opportunity.

*I don't think there are any bad or nefarious actors in this situation. The Remington Group's request was perfectly reasonable, and it's understandable why they pulled out when it was not granted. I also understand why the NHL would not grant such a request. Declining it, from their perspective, was also reasonable.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Ottawa’s reputation as Silicon Valley north is well-established, it’s not just vanity or our own provincial perspective.

Whatyearisit.jpeg

 

[RyCam]

"Unfair advantage" isn't really the correct term. The Remington Group's bid hinged on the real estate component. And naturally, they wanted a chance to negotiate with the NCC and city to ensure that the terms of the land deal would justify paying such a high price (i.e. over $1B). As @PlayersLtd pointed out in this thread, "preferred bidder status" doesn't have much value.

My hunch is that Reynolds aligned himself with this group because they were the most bullish on moving downtown. And that's were the story lies. If you watch Welcome to Wrexham, it's not just about buying a soccer team. It's about buying a soccer team and reinvigorating the entire community around it.

I don't think the other serious bids hinge on moving to Lebreton. The groups are likely open to the possibility, but they'd be perfectly content staying in Kanata. For that reason, they're okay with waiting to negotiate with the NCC and seeing how it plays out in the coming years. But for Reynolds, a story of "we bought a hockey team and ran it pretty much the same way as it was run before" is not nearly as compelling.

My bet on what happens?

The team is sold to Andlauer and a minority partner (Jeff York + investors) for $700-750M, and they make it clear that while they're open to moving, there's no rush. The CTC is fine. Lots of people live in Kanata. We'll get 5 more years of humming and hawing from them and the NCC, and the team will continue to play out in Kanata for at least the next 10 years.

With that said, I don't think Andlauer would be a bad owner for the hockey team. From everything I've read, people think he'd be fantastic. And I don't doubt that he'd be committed to building a good on-ice product, which as a fan, is what I care about.

But for the city as a whole, not getting a downtown rink in the short term will be a massive missed opportunity.

I don't necessarily disagree with any of this, but you also have to look at it from the POV of the other parties involved. Imagine being one of the other bidders, who has a positive relationship with the league, and then having the rug swept from under your feet when the team announces Remington as the preferred bidder.

I understand Remington's concern, but they still have to play by the rules, everyone knows the risks involved in terms of the real estate deal, everyone is on a level playing field in terms of the process.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I don't necessarily disagree with any of this, but you also have to look at it from the POV of the other parties involved. Imagine being one of the other bidders, who has a positive relationship with the league, and then having the rug swept from under your feet when the team announces Remington as the preferred bidder.

I understand Remington's concern, but they still have to play by the rules, everyone knows the risks involved in terms of the real estate deal, everyone is on a level playing field in terms of the process.

Sure, and that's why they pulled out. There's no bad actor here.

They made a reasonable request considering how they wanted to structure their deal, it was declined, and they pulled out, as was their right.

The NHL declined the request, for as you state, reasonable reasons, and accepted Remington withdrawing.

It's just unfortunate for this city, because it feels like a downtown rink isn't really all that close to being on the horizon, even with new ownership. The situation leads me to be believe that the Remington Group was 100% committed to moving the team DT, and quickly. The other groups are not. They're willing to wait and see how it all plays out after they buy the team. Doesn't mean they won't be good owners, but their bid doesn't hinge on the real estate.

It also leads me to believe that the NHL is skeptical about Lebreton and the NCC, otherwise they probably would have granted to negotiating window. Seems like they feel that the risk of the deal falling apart are high, so they're willing to accept a lower, but non-conditional, bid.

The last thing the NHL or Melnyk family wants is to restart this process if negotiations with the city/NCC go south, and they must think there's a good chance of that happening if they're passing on a, reported, $1B+ offer.

Also, prepare yourself for the pointing and laughing at Ottawa fans and media from other fanbases when the final sale price is quite a bit less than what's been reported and lacks celebrities. "You guys really thought the Senators were worth $1B!?!?"

 

[HoweHullOrr]

The longer a process like this goes on and the more uncertainty the seller creates the less interested bidders are going to be.

Debt markets are already f***ed and now you’ve got the former POTUS (whom ~50% of the population listens to, as do a whole slew of house reps and senators) calling on the United States government to default on its debt service.

Lenders are going to start dropping out and the cost of capital is going to go up dramatically. They need to get something done ASAP.

The financial or money part of this seems to have been overshadowed by focus on the A list celebrity aspect. I could speculate as to why, but won't and would say its just not as interesting as the celebrity focus for some.

 

[IpsoPostFacto]

Sure, and that's why they pulled out. There's no bad actor here.

They made a reasonable request considering how they wanted to structure their deal, it was declined, and they pulled out, as was their right.

The NHL declined the request, for as you state, reasonable reasons, and accepted Remington withdrawing.

It's just unfortunate for this city, because it feels like a downtown rink isn't really all that close to being on the horizon, even with new ownership. The situation leads me to be believe that the Remington Group was 100% committed to moving the team DT, and quickly. The other groups are not. They're willing to wait and see how it all plays out after they buy the team. Doesn't mean they won't be good owners, but their bid doesn't hinge on the real estate.

It also leads me to believe that the NHL is skeptical about Lebreton and the NCC, otherwise they probably would have granted to negotiating window. Seems like they feel that the risk of the deal falling apart are high, so they're willing to accept a lower, but non-conditional, bid.

The last thing the NHL or Melnyk family wants is to restart this process if negotiations with the city/NCC go south, and they must think there's a good chance of that happening if they're passing on a, reported, $1B+ offer.

Also, prepare yourself for the pointing and laughing at Ottawa fans and media from other fanbases when the final sale price is quite a bit less than what's been reported and lacks celebrities. "You guys really thought the Senators were worth $1B!?!?"

*other fan bases = TML. In about 8 hours, I'll be ready for that.

I assume the city would like the rink and ancillary project built downtown in order to give the core a shot in the arm. I wonder if there will be pressure on the city to be a little creative and do more than just offer some land for sale.

 

[Flamingo]

Whatyearisit.jpeg

We're certainly at a years-long inflection point, and it depends on the sector.

old guard Telecom - E/// is investing by basing the entire 5G RAN project in Ottawa, i.e., they're not treating it as a remote dev and marketing shop

new SaaS providers - Shopify and Kinaxis, if they return to growth, could help seed a new footprint growth with local headquarters

Though the absolute numbers don't match Toronto's today, and we don't have any real gaming development footprint like Montreal, we are leading in NA in a couple of measures -- high tech jobs as a % of local workforce, and Gen Z IT workforce immigration.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

We're certainly at a years-long inflection point, and it depends on the sector.

old guard Telecom - E/// is investing by basing the entire 5G RAN project in Ottawa, i.e., they're not treating it as a remote dev and marketing shop

new SaaS providers - Shopify and Kinaxis, if they return to growth, could help seed a new footprint growth with local headquarters

Though the absolute numbers don't match Toronto's today, and we don't have any real gaming development footprint like Montreal, we are leading in NA in a couple of measures -- high tech jobs as a % of local workforce, and Gen Z IT workforce immigration.

Fair enough!

Thanks for the reply

 

[IpsoPostFacto]

Neko Sparks has also offered me to join his bid. I am evaluating my options at the moment and to respect the process i will have no further comments.

uhh, one of us is getting played. I had the same offer and agreed based on you not being invited to join. There's only so many chicken wings in the owner's suite.

 

[Tuna99]

Sens could have consented to that.

Just speculating. It's not uncommon for potential buyers to be prohibited from speaking with the government and/or regulators until they have actual skin in the game.

I do find it weird they are asking for $1 Billion dollars and you get to find out if you can build the stadium after you paid $1 billion.

It's like an arranged marriage - get married first and then meet and figure out if your compatible later

 

[Silencio]

Whatyearisit.jpeg

My JDS Uniphase stocks are going to peak any day now!

 

[Tuna99]

after you make $50+ million per Deadpool movie I think the offer to Mae a TV series isn't appealing - he would need a big chunk of the ownership. Reynolds will make money off his Ottawa Sens series but Reynolds without a cut of the merchandise, ticket sales, increased media revenue - I can't see him being tempted to just get paid to make the series, there just won't be enough money available to him - he needs to be brought into the ownership and things to go his way.

Ryan Reynolds is a brand, Niko Sparks is a rich guy - Reynolds needs big cut or I can't see him joining any group

 

[Masked]

I do find it weird they are asking for $1 Billion dollars and you get to find out if you can build the stadium after you paid $1 billion.

It's like an arranged marriage - get married first and then meet and figure out if your compatible later

That's not the situation at all. They know they can build the arena at LeBreton. What they want to know is how much land around the arena they'll be able to develop.

Assen na yo!

 

[DaveMatthew]

That's not the situation at all. They know they can build the arena at LeBreton. What they want to know is how much land around the arena they'll be able to develop.

Assen na yo!

Gary Bettman hinted a little while ago that the parcel of land currently set aside for the arena at Lebreton is not large enough.

That's why when he was in town, we started hearing about alternate sites like Bayview and Hurdman, and working with the city directly to acquire one of those sites instead of with the NCC.

While I don't doubt that Remington also wanted to develop the adjacent land, the vibes around even just a rink at Lebreton are not strong.

And it sounds like Sutcliffe also wants the buyer to commit to building a replacement "attraction" in Kanata to replace the CTC. Otherwise, he's not all that eager to see the Senators leave. The suburbs got him elected, after all.

So much is in the air, which is why Remington wanted that negotiation window. To get clarity. to make sure the deal was workable. No one is paying $1B+ without that.

So like I said earlier, my bet is Andlauer or Kimel get the team for $700-750M and we're in for several years of "will they or won't they move downtown" articles and think pieces. There'll be veiled threats of relocation and no shortage of political theatre. Those Airbnb owners in Kanata need not worry for a while.

 

[Tuna99]

That's not the situation at all. They know they can build the arena at LeBreton. What they want to know is how much land around the arena they'll be able to develop.

Assen na yo!

The Calgary Stadium, Lansdown park - I mean I could see why if you're putting but $1 Billion you'd want to know the process isn't going to drag out for 14 years and be a nightmare at every stage before charging your credit card

 

[chaser17]

I don't care who owns the team just need somebody who can actually afford to run it and not meddle with hockey ops too much. Pretty much just the opposite of Melnyk.

Reynolds would be good because I feel like he's a guy that would actually give time and effort into seeing that the team succeeds as well. All these other billionaires just see it as an investment oppourtunity.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Sens could have consented to that.

Just speculating. It's not uncommon for potential buyers to be prohibited from speaking with the government and/or regulators until they have actual skin in the game.

Well since the mayor himself said he spoke with some groups including an hour with Reynolds group there is no speculation.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I don't care who owns the team just need somebody who can actually afford to run it and not meddle with hockey ops too much. Pretty much just the opposite of Melnyk.

Yeah I think this is what some people are missing.

I want a mega rich owner who won't care if we spend to the cap each year, even if it costs him a bit of money.

 

[Golden_Jet]

"Unfair advantage" isn't really the correct term. The Remington Group's bid hinged on the real estate component. And naturally, they wanted a chance to negotiate with the NCC and city to ensure that the terms of the land deal would justify paying such a high price (i.e. over $1B). As @PlayersLtd pointed out in this thread, "preferred bidder status" doesn't have much value.

My hunch is that Reynolds aligned himself with this group because they were the most bullish on moving downtown. And that's were the story lies. If you watch Welcome to Wrexham, it's not just about buying a soccer team. It's about buying a soccer team and reinvigorating the entire community around it.

I don't think the other serious bids hinge on moving to Lebreton. The groups are likely open to the possibility, but they'd be perfectly content staying in Kanata. For that reason, they're okay with waiting to negotiate with the NCC and seeing how it plays out in the coming years. But for Reynolds, a story of "we bought a hockey team and ran it pretty much the same way as it was run before, and let me tell you about the history of Kanata Centrum..." is not nearly as compelling.

My bet on what happens?

The team is sold to Andlauer and a minority partner (Jeff York + investors) for $700-750M, and they make it clear that while they're open to moving, there's no rush. The CTC is fine. Lots of people live in Kanata. We'll get 5 more years of humming and hawing from them and the NCC, and the team will continue to play out in Kanata for at least the next 10 years. Lebreton will remain a wasteland and embarrassment.

With that said, I don't think Andlauer would be a bad owner for the hockey team. From everything I've read, people think he'd be fantastic. And I don't doubt that he'd be committed to building a good on-ice product, which as a fan, is what I care about.

But for the city as a whole, not getting a downtown rink in the short term will be a massive missed opportunity.

*I don't think there are any bad or nefarious actors in this situation. The Remington Group's request was perfectly reasonable, and it's understandable why they pulled out when it was not granted. I also understand why the NHL would not grant such a request. Declining it, from their perspective, was also reasonable.

GSP declined it not the NHL.

 

[Silencio]

more like Glacial-oto Sports Partners with the amount of time this process has dragged on

 

[DaveMatthew]

GSP declined it not the NHL.

Sure, same thing though. GSP/Melnyks wouldn't want to select a bid only to have that bidder pull out after negotiations with the NCC and/or city go south.

When they pick a bid, they want to close.

And it's likely they'll accept a lower price if it's not conditional on working out a land arrangement – which indicates that people are skeptical a land arrangement could be worked out quickly.

Yeah I think this is what some people are missing.

I want a mega rich owner who won't care if we spend to the cap each year, even if it costs him a bit of money.

There are no mega-rich people in the running.

Andlauer and Kimel would rank towards the bottom of owners in terms of net worth.

And I don't know much about Kimel, but it sounds like Andlauer would be a committed, but prudent, owner. Not someone who's going to write blank cheques.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

There are no mega-rich people in the running.

Andlauer and Kimel would rank towards the bottom of owners in terms of net worth.

And I don't know much about Kimel, but it sounds like Andlauer would be a committed, but prudent, owner. Not someone who's going to write blank cheques.

Neither Andlauer or Kimels are going at it alone. They're bringing along other investors.

The richest person in the running is Steve Apostolopoulos, who's trying to buy the Washington Commanders for 6 billion.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Andlauer and Kimel would rank towards the bottom of owners in terms of net worth.

Don't know much about Kimel, but it sounds like Andlauer would be a committed, but prudent, owner. Not someone who's going to write blank cheques.

I think Apostolopoulos may be the big money guy in the running.

Was trying to buy the Commanders, which ended up selling for 6 billion, but I expect he would have had significant help from other investors to be able to do it.

 

[Sun God Nika]

if Andlauer and Kimel dont have the funds to go toe to toe with our rivals in MTL and Tor they can f*** off.

Give me Apostolopoulos