Sebastian Aho (CAR) a future HOF’er… or nah?

[tarheelhockey]

What the hell is wrong with some posters around here. It's like most lack basic math skills completely. Aho is sitting at 601 points right now and he's 27 years old. He's missed 18 games and he's in his 9th season. He's one of the more durable players in the league missing on average 2 games per season. The league is softer now and Aho could potentially have at least 13 seasons of hockey left after this. Even if he averages just 50 points per year he'll be good for 1250 points in his career. Everybody who's scored that much is in the hall of fame or will be in the hall of fame unless somebody wants to make a case on why Kopitar won't make the hall of fame. So a healthy Aho would be the highest scoring player to not get into the hall of fame when it's all said and done.

People compare Aho to Marleau in this thread. Marleau had just 491 career points at the end of his 27 year old season. Aho will most likely sit somewere between 630-640 points when this season is over. Others compare Aho to Giroux. Giroux was sitting at 517 career points after his 27 year old season. The best Finnish player of all time Selanne was at sitting at 537 career points after his 27 year old season.

One could say that Aho is an elite compiler. But he's not just picking up easy 2nd assists like some. With 267 goals so fa,r 500+ career goals seems like a sure thing if he stays somewhat healthy. And Aho will be really high in some goal categories when all is said and done. Right now Aho is 22nd all time in career overtime goals, top 10 all time in empty net goals and 102nd in short handed goals (Aho has 18 short handed goals right now, Marchand who's tied 8th all time with 36 had 19 at the same age as Aho).

On top of that Aho also has solid playoff numbers so far and will most likely put up 100+ playoff points as well. The hall is full of players with way worse numbers than a healthy Aho will end up with once his career is over.

Another lens on this:


Ron Francis age 27

• Games played for HAR/CAR franchise - 714
• Top 10 point finishes: 0
• Awards for which he got more than one single vote - Selke (5th place)
• Stanley Cup rounds won: 1

Sebastian Aho age 27

• Games played for HAR/CAR franchise: 643
• Top 10 point finishes: 0
• Awards for which he got more than one single vote: Hart (10th place), Selke (11th, 12th, 14th, 25th, and 28th place)
• Stanley Cup rounds won: 8

I mean… there’s a real case for Aho being the better player to this point in their careers.

So what makes Francis an easy shoo-in HOF’er? After age 27 he went to one of the most stacked offensive juggernauts in league history and feasted on the power play. Then those point totals elevated him to Selke finalist status (ironically). Then he played till 40, compiling big career totals and leadership clout along the way.

There’s no reason Aho won’t play till 40, but he’s not joining the Oilers any time soon. That will likely be the difference between his legacy and that of a Ron Francis. A few years from now, Aho’s a lot more likely to lead his team scoring 82 points than to be a distant third with 119. And that will mean more 10th-12th place Selke finishes instead of 1-2-3. And that will add up to a difference in his HOF profile, even though he’s exactly the same player (and arguably a better one) if he’s the centerpiece on a team that depends on him compared to being a secondary option on a stacked run-and-gun team where he’s the only guy remotely responsible for defending.

 

[The Frying Finn]

Aho is in a weird limbo imo. He's consistently a very good player and the team is good also (partially thanks to him). But, I don't think the team is Stanley cup good. They need the missing link (as in an elite level player to really elevate the team) but such are difficult to get when the team is unlikely to get a high draft number.

That said, Aho himself was a 2nd rounder.

Maybe they'll get Rantanen this summer and Aho will become a 100 points center, and win the cup. One can wish hah!

 

[Mulletman]

Another lens on this:


Ron Francis age 27

• Games played for HAR/CAR franchise - 714
• Top 10 point finishes: 0
• Awards for which he got more than one single vote - Selke (5th place)
• Stanley Cup rounds won: 1

Sebastian Aho age 27

• Games played for HAR/CAR franchise: 643
• Top 10 point finishes: 0
• Awards for which he got more than one single vote: Hart (10th place), Selke (11th, 12th, 14th, 25th, and 28th place)
• Stanley Cup rounds won: 8

I mean… there’s a real case for Aho being the better player to this point in their careers.

So what makes Francis an easy shoo-in HOF’er? After age 27 he went to one of the most stacked offensive juggernauts in league history and feasted on the power play. Then those point totals elevated him to Selke finalist status (ironically). Then he played till 40, compiling big career totals and leadership clout along the way.

There’s no reason Aho won’t play till 40, but he’s not joining the Oilers any time soon. That will likely be the difference between his legacy and that of a Ron Francis. A few years from now, Aho’s a lot more likely to lead his team scoring 82 points than to be a distant third with 119. And that will mean more 10th-12th place Selke finishes instead of 1-2-3. And that will add up to a difference in his HOF profile, even though he’s exactly the same player (and arguably a better one) if he’s the centerpiece on a team that depends on him compared to being a secondary option on a stacked run-and-gun team where he’s the only guy remotely responsible for defending.

NHL.com already has Aho ahead of Francis as a Canes player: Carolina Hurricanes Quarter-Century Teams unveiled | NHL.com
And you never know what will happen. The owners might get tired of BrindAmours mediocre results in the playoffs, so it's not out of the question that he could get fired after 1 or 2 more 2nd round exits. A new coach could bring in a high scoring system...

 

[Mulletman]

Aho is in a weird limbo imo. He's consistently a very good player and the team is good also (partially thanks to him). But, I don't think the team is Stanley cup good. They need the missing link (as in an elite level player to really elevate the team) but such are difficult to get when the team is unlikely to get a high draft number.

That said, Aho himself was a 2nd rounder.

Maybe they'll get Rantanen this summer and Aho will become a 100 points center, and win the cup. One can wish hah!

Rantanen is useless without MacKinnon and Makar. Aho is great but he wouldn't be able to carry Rantanen like MacKinnon and Makar have.
Now if the Canes were smart they would target Laine next year after Montreal tries to lowball him and get him dirt cheap. Would be a nice revenge for the Aho offersheet as well, that Montreal tried to pull a few years back.

 

[bishop12]

Not even close.

 

[Sampe from the 2000s]

Sundin is an apt comparison in the sense that both players impressed even more on international ice than in the NHL. But Sundin is not a weak HHOFer IMO even if his numbers with relatively mediocre NHL linemates may suggest so. When he retired in 2009, he was the second-leading point producer in the history of international best-on-best tournaments (30.18+20=38; Selänne has since overtaken him with 45.22+21=43; Gretzky leads comfortably with 45.20+48=68). Meanwhile Aho, who has so far outplayed e.g. Rantanen on international ice, has yet to even play a best-on-best tournament in his prime due to obvious reasons.

Perhaps an equally close comparison would be Saku Koivu. He was an absolute monster on international ice: 30.9+22=31 in best-on-bests; 89.30+64=94 in all international tournaments; superior leadership and 2-way game compared to linemate Selänne whose totals read 96.54+48=102). To get some idea of how impressive he was, here's Kurri's best-on-best stat line: 26.5+6=11. Here's Ovechkin's: 23.10+5=15. Here's Crosby's: 19.8+12=20. Yet Koivu achieved point-per-game pace in the NHL only once (partially because the knee injury in late '96 slowed him down). As a result, he will always remain in the Hall of very good despite leading the greatest national team line of his generation.

Aho falls somewhere in between. His NHL career so far might be roughly what Koivu could have been capable of without all those injuries (not to mention cancer). But before Aho finally gets to show what he's capable of internationally in the 4 Nations and the next Olympics, I won't bother projecting him.

 

[The Macho King]

Not even close as of now.

 

[SensontheRush]

I hate the whole "he needs a cup" to get in the HOF, it's silly. It's like saying "he needs a team accomplishment to receive an individual honor".

Team accomplishments are the achievements of a group of individuals.

Noteworthy individuals elevate others. Stanley Cup wins are worth considering.

 

[ijuka]

Unlikely, unless he captains the Hurricanes into several cups. Barring that, he's pretty much a lock for "hall of very good."

 

[featherhawk]

all depends on what he does with the rest of his career...

 

[The Abusement Park]

He shouldn't even be considered at this point imo. He's a very very good player, but he's not a HHOF level guy. Some hardware and/or a cup could change things.