Sebastian Aho (CAR) a future HOF’er… or nah?

[5 14 6 1]

Edit: What about Kopitar as a comparison? Aho's arguably a more dependable scorer though Kopitar's prime was in the lower scoring 2010's and Kopi's got the Selke stuff covered quite well.

Kopitar won two cups, won two selkes, two lady byngs and and has captained his team. Not to mention his impressive durability/longevity at 37

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I'd say he's in the Giroux tier; right on the edge, but I hope both get in as a fan.

I think both will get in as long as Aho continues to be good for the next half of his career.

Giroux will be in

 

[Toby91ca]

From what I could gather, Sebastian Aho got exactly ONE vote so far in his career -- a 3rd place vote -- for the year-end all-star team.

For the record, Mats Sundin, who is sometimes perceived as someone who compiled his way to the HHOF because he played most of his career for the Maple Leafs, got 96 of these, and he played his career when there were less voters.

Yes, so far, Aho has had a single end of season, 3rd place vote. In terms of Mullen getting in (as noted earlier), he had 51-3rd place votes, 30-2nd place votes and 48-1st place votes. Aho's top offensive season so far was a 17th place finish. Mullen played in a higher scoring era, so his 51 goal season, 500+ goals, 1,000+ pts and PPG pace aren't that impressive, but he did finish 7th in scoring one year.

For Aho, I won't say no, because he is still young enough that he could accomplish a bunch of things still, but it's a longshot in my mind. I certainly take his PPG pace now and extend it out 7-8 years as it will surely come down as he gets older.

I really don't think there is much point in talking about him at all in terms of HOF at this point. He's compiled a bit where he's no say far behind the 8-ball, but not enough where it warrants discussion.

 

[Kegs]

Is Matt’s Sundin in the hall of fame?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Yes, so far, Aho has had a single end of season, 3rd place vote. In terms of Mullen getting in (as noted earlier), he had 51-3rd place votes, 30-2nd place votes and 48-1st place votes.

Mullen got those votes at RW during a meh era for RWs. It was basically Bossy and Kurri jockeying for #1 and then a big drop to guys like Tim Kerr and Mike Gartner.

If Mullen were up for the center position in the 2020s, on a 5 player ballot I doubt very much that he’d have stolen votes from McDavid/MacKinnon/Matthews/Draisaitl plus Barkov or Eichel or Hughes depending on who’s hottest that year.

To your point, though, about Mullen’s peak season — Aho really hasn’t had that year where he’s on some high flying line that puts up crazy numbers. Mullen’s biggest season was almost 20 points higher than his second-best, and involved a ridiculously stacked Presidents+Cup team. Then he went from that stacked Calgary team to an even more stacked Pittsburgh team, one of the best offensive teams in history. That’s the Mullen that stuck in a lot of people’s minds, rather than the guy who otherwise had pedestrian numbers and little hardware for a HHOF’er. Aho’s case would be hugely enhanced by a season like that, even just a single season.

 

[MXD]

Is Matt’s Sundin in the hall of fame?

Yes he is.
But he's generally perceived as a third quartile HHOFer amongst rational observers, and he's of the all prime and no peak to speak of variety. And he was also significantly better vs his peers than Aho is at same age.

Yes, so far, Aho has had a single end of season, 3rd place vote. In terms of Mullen getting in (as noted earlier), he had 51-3rd place votes, 30-2nd place votes and 48-1st place votes. Aho's top offensive season so far was a 17th place finish. Mullen played in a higher scoring era, so his 51 goal season, 500+ goals, 1,000+ pts and PPG pace aren't that impressive, but he did finish 7th in scoring one year.

For Aho, I won't say no, because he is still young enough that he could accomplish a bunch of things still, but it's a longshot in my mind. I certainly take his PPG pace now and extend it out 7-8 years as it will surely come down as he gets older.

I really don't think there is much point in talking about him at all in terms of HOF at this point. He's compiled a bit where he's no say far behind the 8-ball, but not enough where it warrants discussion.

RW is generally an easier position to get support for (hence why I used the Sundin comparable).

Also, Joe Mullen is considered to be one of the weakest HHOFers whose case is a bit circumstancial (at lot of it rests on him being the first American to reach 500 goals) and is absolutely not the standard a candidate has to meet.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Lots of hockey left to play. Right now, he’s in the Hall of the Very Good. It depends on what he does with what’s left. He’s got a shot.

 

[Kuljeskelen]

Ehhh? Probable Carolina jersey retirer if he plays his contract there, unless he starts shitting gold.

 

[crowi]

Needs 1000+ points and a Cup. Until he has those, it's not worth speculating. He's a great player obviously, but needs more results.

 

[SEALBound]

This. If Aho gets in it will be because he compiled a bunch of points over a long career.

I would agree but also say, if that's going to be the case, he better get going.

 

[Mulletman]

What the hell is wrong with some posters around here. It's like most lack basic math skills completely. Aho is sitting at 601 points right now and he's 27 years old. He's missed 18 games and he's in his 9th season. He's one of the more durable players in the league missing on average 2 games per season. The league is softer now and Aho could potentially have at least 13 seasons of hockey left after this. Even if he averages just 50 points per year he'll be good for 1250 points in his career. Everybody who's scored that much is in the hall of fame or will be in the hall of fame unless somebody wants to make a case on why Kopitar won't make the hall of fame. So a healthy Aho would be the highest scoring player to not get into the hall of fame when it's all said and done.

People compare Aho to Marleau in this thread. Marleau had just 491 career points at the end of his 27 year old season. Aho will most likely sit somewere between 630-640 points when this season is over. Others compare Aho to Giroux. Giroux was sitting at 517 career points after his 27 year old season. The best Finnish player of all time Selanne was at sitting at 537 career points after his 27 year old season.

One could say that Aho is an elite compiler. But he's not just picking up easy 2nd assists like some. With 267 goals so fa,r 500+ career goals seems like a sure thing if he stays somewhat healthy. And Aho will be really high in some goal categories when all is said and done. Right now Aho is 22nd all time in career overtime goals, top 10 all time in empty net goals and 102nd in short handed goals (Aho has 18 short handed goals right now, Marchand who's tied 8th all time with 36 had 19 at the same age as Aho).

On top of that Aho also has solid playoff numbers so far and will most likely put up 100+ playoff points as well. The hall is full of players with way worse numbers than a healthy Aho will end up with once his career is over.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

thru 642 career games, he has 601 points.

let’s say he plays 600 more games (roughly 7 more seasons… he’ll be nearing 35 years old).. if he continues at his current PPG pace, he’s looking at around 1,200 career points, which would surpass ron francis for most points in Hurricanes history by an individual.

70 career playoff points in 74 games, that’s stellar.

has yet to win a cup or any major awards though.

I know there’s a lot of ‘IF’s’ but… what are your thoughts on the Finnish forward making the hall of fame someday? what would it take for him to secure a spot in the HOF? he’s certainly not a lock just yet, right?

not a hurricanes fan in particular, just was curious what your guys’ opinions/thoughts are.

The current lock point threshold sit around 1150 pts right now, where very few, (last time I checked about 5 players) have that and are not in.
he lack a little something to push him over the hill and we need to assume his production stay the same over a little too long.

He out for me currently but close, and it could change on a dime

 

[Spawn]

I'd say he's in the Giroux tier; right on the edge, but I hope both get in as a fan.

Giroux had a stretch where he was challenging for scoring titles and had a few top 4 finishes for Hart voting.

Aho isn’t even close.

 

[MXD]

A relevant complement of information : Amongst players born the same year as him, and who are thus super likely to go directly up against him for enshrinement to the HHOF, Sebastian Aho is 5th in scoring. Of these five players, two are clearly better than him with absolutely no arguments for Aho (Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid) and two others for which the case is at least arguable (Mitch Marner and Matthew Tkachuk -- and I'm probably being VERY generous to Aho WRT Tkachuk). Marner is already nearly a hundred points ahead of Aho, so a two-way "compiler" case for Aho is already hampered by running into a similar two-way compiler who actually compiled more.

There's also three relevant players amongst those with less points than Aho : Two D-Men (Zach Werenski and Charlie McAvoy) who aren't expected to score as much and Kiril Kaprizov, a player who has 300 less games played than Aho.

Fun tidbit : McDavid, a 1997 born, has more assists than anyone other than Mitch Marner born in 1997 has points.

 

[UnSandvich]

Hall of Good atm, has a chance for Hall of Very Good. Don't see HoF there unless something drastic changes. He's not going in off individual hardware, he doesn't have an insane peak, and he's probably about the best player he's going to be.

A Cup, Smythe, or maybe a couple Selkes could tip the scales enough to edge him in.

 

[Lt Dan]

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Not even close. No major accolades. Never been a top 15 player in the league.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

He is not even remotely close but he is still young so anything’s possible

 

[Winston Wolf]

I think there's a few things to consider that will change how this is looked at in the future:

1. Advanced statistics: Statistics about how we measure players' actual impact to the game are still in their infancy. We still have leadership teams in the league who "don't believe" in advanced statistics. A lot of people in the league—and some old-school sportswriters and broadcasters who vote on awards—still focus on traditional stats like goals and assists. There’s even a Silent Generation exec in the NHL who probably cares more about whether players shave than what anything beyond their goals and points numbers look like. In 15 years, this will probably be totally different. We’ll have new ways to measure who’s actually the best, and Aho might come out looking better in those conversations. For now, though, playoff performance and goals/assists are the main things that matter. But you can’t ignore the context Aho plays in. He’s on a team with a system that doesn’t pump up individual stats, and he hasn’t had the chance to play with elite talent. Magically put him in Edmonton instead of Puljujarvi, on a power play with McDavid, and how many points does he score? Ryan Nugent-Hopkins hit 100 in that spot. Are we really saying Aho wouldn’t do that too? Instead, it wasn't too long ago that he was stuck on power plays with guys like a 64-year-old Justin Williams. It’s just not the same situation as other players his age.

2. Media: Media plays a big role in how players are viewed, and it’s hard to say what media will even look like in 15 years. But right now, it’s pretty clear that Aho’s market doesn’t help him. If he were in a bigger hockey city, like Toronto or Boston, he’d probably get way more attention. Look at Patrice Bergeron—he’s celebrated as one of the best two-way players ever, but would people see him the same way if he spent his whole career in Carolina? Aho’s a quiet Finnish guy who doesn’t put up crazy numbers, so it’s easy for people to overlook him in a smaller market.

3. International Play: How has no one mentioned this? Not saying he won’t have an effective NHL case someday, but Sebastian Aho has an amazing international resume to this point. If he has a great Olympics or Four Nations or whatever over the next 10+ years, this will play a factor. He’s always among the top forwards and his competition here has been ridiculous.

I asked ChatGPT (not saying it's perfect or did too much work, but had it break down both regular stats and advanced metrics) who it would take between Marner and Aho, considering everything, and it said Aho. I don’t think anyone would have such a negative reaction to the thought of Marner being there one day.

 

[EXTRAS]

sub-PPG guys are going to look a lot worse at the end of the period of high scoring.

No cups, no top 10 points finishes, no post-season all star team selections, no trophies of any kind.

There’s no chance he gets in unless something changes meaningfully. Giroux is not a good comparison (4x 10 top points, 3x top 3, 2nd team allstar)

Sundin?

 

[Winston Wolf]

A relevant complement of information : Amongst players born the same year as him, and who are thus super likely to go directly up against him for enshrinement to the HHOF, Sebastian Aho is 5th in scoring. Of these five players, two are clearly better than him with absolutely no arguments for Aho (Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid) and two others for which the case is at least arguable (Mitch Marner and Matthew Tkachuk -- and I'm probably being VERY generous to Aho WRT Tkachuk). Marner is already nearly a hundred points ahead of Aho, so a two-way "compiler" case for Aho is already hampered by running into a similar two-way compiler who actually compiled more.

There's also three relevant players amongst those with less points than Aho : Two D-Men (Zach Werenski and Charlie McAvoy) who aren't expected to score as much and Kiril Kaprizov, a player who has 300 less games played than Aho.

Fun tidbit : McDavid, a 1997 born, has more assists than anyone other than Mitch Marner born in 1997 has points.

Dude, Matthews and McDavid will go down as all time greats. Marner is very good and plays with an all time great goal scorer. Tkachuk plays with a Hall of Famer and a great supporting cast. Kaprizov will also be a Hall of Famer unless something terrible happens. Saying that he isn't as good as these players isn't exactly a case against him. Most couple year periods don't have that much talent. No one is saying Aho is getting in first ballot anyways.