Value of: Seattle's 2025 1st Rd. Pick

[PlayMakers]

A difference maker is what I am aiming for, and I haven't seen anything in this thread that would make me want to trade this year's 1st.

Basically, my thinking is that Dunn is not suited to matching up against other teams' top lines. So if we had someone who could play that role, we could move Dunn down to the 2nd pairing while still running the PP.

_______ - Montour
Dunn - Larsson
Evans - _______

Why would anyone give up a proven #1 D for a draft pick that might one day be a #1 D?

I think you need to look at potentials. A potential #1 D or first line forward, who hasn't found his way yet, for the 6th or 7th pick. That's closer to apples for apples, you're just moving the timeline forward 4 or 5 years.

 

[PlayMakers]

Cam York

Yeah, Cam York, Mason Lohrei... those are the types I'd target if I were Seattle. They're already in the league, they've already shown they can do some good things, they just need to develop. Picks are lottery tickets, even high ones.

In the qualifying offer thread, folks think Cody Glass may not get qualified. He was 7th overall.

 

[majormajor]

Yeah, Cam York, Mason Lohrei... those are the types I'd target if I were Seattle. They're already in the league, they've already shown they can do some good things, they just need to develop. Picks are lottery tickets, even high ones.

In the qualifying offer thread, folks think Cody Glass may not get qualified. He was 7th overall.

I get that the average 7th overall pick is not anything special, but you have a real chance of getting an elite player with that pick, and you don't trade that for very middling players. Cam York was a frequent healthy scratch, And Lohrei -43?

 

[tomd]

In the short-term, Seattle probably can't do too much unless they want to make a really bad trade or signing. But in the medium to long term, they definitely need to start balancing their drafts by taking some D in the 1st/2nd rounds. Their propensity to draft almost exclusively forwards in those rounds is coming back to bite them and will continue to do so.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

I could see 17th overall and Andersson. Problem is Andersson is a RD

 

[BKarchitect]

I could see 17th overall and Andersson. Problem is Andersson is a RD

Wrong type of defensemen too IMO. He just seems a bit redundant with Dunn and Montour on the team, especially with those guys locked up into big contracts and RA needing a new one by next year.

IMO in the short term, the Kraken need a big time stopper/eraser type…somebody with size and skating who can provide Larsson with some help in that area (somebody more mobile and younger than Oleksiak). They are covered offensively with Dunn, Montour and Evans and even their prospect pool all leans offensive (Nelson, Price, Dragicevic, etc).

I’d look at trading down more than a pick for player trade - which I don’t think you’re gonna get enough value for. I also don’t think it would be that wild for them to just go ahead and take a Jackson Smith at their pick. People get too caught up in what the composite mocks say…maybe compared to those Smith at 6 or 7 is a few picks too high, but you’re talking about a smooth skating 6-3 defender with a lot of skill. He could absolutely be the long-term guy they need to anchor their defense.

 

[BKarchitect]

I get that the average 7th overall pick is not anything special, but you have a real chance of getting an elite player with that pick, and you don't trade that for very middling players. Cam York was a frequent healthy scratch, And Lohrei -43?

Yeah, 100%. I think there’s a big difference between the conversation of “what does the average #7 pick become” and “on draft day, how does an NHL team evaluate the value of their #7 pick”.

Could the pick end up being anything, even Mason Lohrei (who I actually still really belive in) or Cam York (who I really don’t think is anything great)? Sure. But that doesn’t mean the team with the pick is going to say “our scouts are pretty poor or average, we don’t believe they are going to pick a foundational asset here, so we might as well deal the pick”.

 

[Mr grumpy]

Let's see after the lotto

 

[PlayMakers]

I get that the average 7th overall pick is not anything special, but you have a real chance of getting an elite player with that pick, and you don't trade that for very middling players. Cam York was a frequent healthy scratch, And Lohrei -43?

Fair, maybe you need to upgrade the level of young NHL'er, I'm just saying you can't expect to get a proven impact player for a chance at an impact player.

There has to be risk on your end as well.

 

[PlayMakers]

Yeah, 100%. I think there’s a big difference between the conversation of “what does the average #7 pick become” and “on draft day, how does an NHL team evaluate the value of their #7 pick”.

Could the pick end up being anything, even Mason Lohrei (who I actually still really belive in) or Cam York (who I really don’t think is anything great)? Sure. But that doesn’t mean the team with the pick is going to say “our scouts are pretty poor or average, we don’t believe they are going to pick a foundational asset here, so we might as well deal the pick”.

I don't think it's about confidence in scouts, it's about the reality of drafting 17 year olds.

 

[BKarchitect]

I don't think it's about confidence in scouts, it's about the reality of drafting 17 year olds.

No doubting the facts - but teams aren’t approaching their boards with the idea that their main targets are going to end up being Cody Glass or Nolan Patrick. Approaching or on draft day, a top 10 pick is going to be valued as the potential keys to a franchise player by the team with that pick. Hence the difficulty of a straight up top lotto pick for player type of deal. Feels like when that does happen, it’s because the pick was transferred long before it ended up that high.

I think Seattle’s pick is plenty valuable - it’s going to be around pick #7 in a draft that tiers down probably right after that. It’s just not a draft overflowing with blueline studs after Schaefer (at least from consensus - again who knows on individual team draft boards)…if that’s what Seattle is targeting. Frankly, I think they should still be building with top end prospects, regardless of their free agency forays or position, so they should just keep the pick and grab another blue chip prospect, regardless of position.

 

[Dead Coyote]

Wrong type of defensemen too IMO. He just seems a bit redundant with Dunn and Montour on the team, especially with those guys locked up into big contracts and RA needing a new one by next year.

IMO in the short term, the Kraken need a big time stopper/eraser type…somebody with size and skating who can provide Larsson with some help in that area (somebody more mobile and younger than Oleksiak). They are covered offensively with Dunn, Montour and Evans and even their prospect pool all leans offensive (Nelson, Price, Dragicevic, etc).

I’d look at trading down more than a pick for player trade - which I don’t think you’re gonna get enough value for. I also don’t think it would be that wild for them to just go ahead and take a Jackson Smith at their pick. People get too caught up in what the composite mocks say…maybe compared to those Smith at 6 or 7 is a few picks too high, but you’re talking about a smooth skating 6-3 defender with a lot of skill. He could absolutely be the long-term guy they need to anchor their defense.

You should come join us on the Kraken boards friend! I enjoy your insights. And in this case, you're right.

Seattle has no reason to trade that first unless we're getting really good value. And honestly, we aren't really in the position to trade it anyways. Based on interviews I think Botterill sees that and is unlikely to trade the pick unless it's for a Kakko type of player who they believe in.

 

[bleuetbio]

What about a move down to 16th for Xhekaj brothers (Arber and Florian) + 16th?

 

[kihei]

I hope we keep the pick, and BPA it, regardless of whether the Kraken take a winger or a defenseman. It's not like we aren't in significant need of impact players in both areas. One will do as nicely as the other at the moment.

 

[Quatre Vingt Treize]

can I introduce you to Mike Matheson?

Probably have to include our own first pick.

 

[PlayMakers]

No doubting the facts - but teams aren’t approaching their boards with the idea that their main targets are going to end up being Cody Glass or Nolan Patrick. Approaching or on draft day, a top 10 pick is going to be valued as the potential keys to a franchise player by the team with that pick. Hence the difficulty of a straight up top lotto pick for player type of deal. Feels like when that does happen, it’s because the pick was transferred long before it ended up that high.

I think Seattle’s pick is plenty valuable - it’s going to be around pick #7 in a draft that tiers down probably right after that. It’s just not a draft overflowing with blueline studs after Schaefer (at least from consensus - again who knows on individual team draft boards)…if that’s what Seattle is targeting. Frankly, I think they should still be building with top end prospects, regardless of their free agency forays or position, so they should just keep the pick and grab another blue chip prospect, regardless of position.

I think the guys drafting are realistic. They do their homework and background checks, and are super excited about what the player they chose can become, but at the end of the day, every GM knows that's only IF everything works out according to plan.

The kid still has to put in the work, he still has to improve in all areas, he still has to transition levels, he has to mature physically and mentally, he has to learn how to live on his own, he has to learn how to play with more structure, he has to learn how to deal with the distractions...

A top10 pick is still extremely valuable, it's one of the few places you can get a future #1C or #1D, but I don't think it's as valuable as the real thing.

 

[Jared Dunn]

A difference maker is what I am aiming for, and I haven't seen anything in this thread that would make me want to trade this year's 1st.

Basically, my thinking is that Dunn is not suited to matching up against other teams' top lines. So if we had someone who could play that role, we could move Dunn down to the 2nd pairing while still running the PP.

_______ - Montour
Dunn - Larsson
Evans - _______

Pelech (when healthy at least) actually might be a decent fit in that case, though obviously not at that price. Then draft and try to develop his replacement before the wheels fall off

 

[Jared Dunn]

Probably have to include our own first pick.

If only all it took was Matheson to jump from 16 to 6 lol

 

[Castle8130]

This would be post-lottery. Obviously if we're lucky enough to win the 1st or 2nd overall pick, we likely wouldn't trade it. So 6th or 7th overall is what's on the table.

The biggest need would be LD, not sure who's available.

Preferably on the right side of 30 years old.

note: if the player you're about to offer is not worth a top-10 pick, don't bother

Im sure there are plenty of teams that’d be interested in trading back in the draft. This draft is weak for defensemen and if your team doesn’t have a high grade on Jackson Smith, it might be best to move back and accumulate a lot more capital.

I see the Kraken already have a couple 1sts the next two seasons along with some 2nd round picks. Couldn’t hurt to move back to say 16 and 17 with maybe an extra 2nd round pick as a sweetner from Montreal. From there you can hope for Aitcheson, Fiddler, Hensler, or Boumedienne and possibly double up on defense. If Seattle is drafting 6th, i think 16,17, and 49 should get the job done

 

[Quatre Vingt Treize]

If only all it took was Matheson to jump from 16 to 6 lol

After 5 to 20 or so not much difference in talent. Martin at 16 could be as good as Ekland at 6.

 

[ole ole]

This would be post-lottery. Obviously if we're lucky enough to win the 1st or 2nd overall pick, we likely wouldn't trade it. So 6th or 7th overall is what's on the table.

The biggest need would be LD, not sure who's available.

Preferably on the right side of 30 years old.

note: if the player you're about to offer is not worth a top-10 pick, don't bother

Habs will offer up the 16th and 17th OA pick plus a little something more for the 7th

 

[Gregor Samsa]

Any interest in any players on the Flyers? Philly could add a couple of their late 1st, early 2nds and take a cap dump to even things out if needed

 

[majormajor]

Yeah, 100%. I think there’s a big difference between the conversation of “what does the average #7 pick become” and “on draft day, how does an NHL team evaluate the value of their #7 pick”.

Could the pick end up being anything, even Mason Lohrei (who I actually still really belive in) or Cam York (who I really don’t think is anything great)? Sure. But that doesn’t mean the team with the pick is going to say “our scouts are pretty poor or average, we don’t believe they are going to pick a foundational asset here, so we might as well deal the pick”.

That too, but the point I was making is a little different.

If you look at a set of 4 #7 picks, say:

Lias Andersson
Ivan Provorov
Nazem Kadri
Quinn Hughes

Then the average player of the group is 2nd line / 2nd pair, somewhere in between Provorov and Kadri. That's also the modal result, the most likely level of player you end up with. But the average value of the four is much higher, because Quinn Hughes is worth so much more.

Would you rather have those four players or two of Kadri and two of Provorov? Obviously the four. And that's why these discussions that dwell on the most likely result of the pick miss the point. Your shot at an elite player is not just a tantalizing bias that you have, it's objectively more important.

Pelech (when healthy at least) actually might be a decent fit in that case, though obviously not at that price. Then draft and try to develop his replacement before the wheels fall off

If you want a big puck stopper then gambling on Pelech's health makes more sense. Isles fans think the acquisition cost would be low / negligible. So take on Pelech and spend the draft pick on getting a higher upside piece like Jackson Smith. Jackson Smith is a great target at #6/#7.

Im sure there are plenty of teams that’d be interested in trading back in the draft. This draft is weak for defensemen and if your team doesn’t have a high grade on Jackson Smith, it might be best to move back and accumulate a lot more capital.

I see the Kraken already have a couple 1sts the next two seasons along with some 2nd round picks. Couldn’t hurt to move back to say 16 and 17 with maybe an extra 2nd round pick as a sweetner from Montreal. From there you can hope for Aitcheson, Fiddler, Hensler, or Boumedienne and possibly double up on defense. If Seattle is drafting 6th, i think 16,17, and 49 should get the job done

The Kraken need high end and elite talent at all positions though. They're not set anywhere. It doesn't make any more sense for them to trade back for quantity than it does for the Habs. They need to take a big swing at #6 / #7OA.

 

[Kraken Jokes]

Any interest in any players on the Flyers? Philly could add a couple of their late 1st, early 2nds and take a cap dump to even things out if needed

I looked at Sanheim but he tends to play on the right side, doesn't he?

 

[SundherDome]

Byram, I'll send that paperwork over