GDT: Seattle Kraken Free Agent Frenzy Discussion

[The Marquis]

Kole Lind signs and nobody says a word. Weirdly signs for less.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Kole Lind signs and nobody says a word. Weirdly signs for less.

WIth the depth we have at forward ... again this year ... when does he really get called up? Currently, I would think he is the 14th forward, right? With the top-10 being pretty set, I would think Lind is somewhere behind Bellemare, Yamamoto and Kartye.

This is not counting Wright because I have no idea what happens with him this season. OHL, AHL or NHL?

 

[Hocktopus]

Being a Rockets fan and watching play here his entire junior career, I am certainly rooting for Lind but, at this stage of his career, Lind is a "tweener": too good for the AHL but not good enough for the NHL.

Still, we do have several forwards who will become UFAs in the next 1-2 years (Eberle, Gourde, Tanev, Wennberg) and the Kraken will probably not be able or willing to resign all of them, so perhaps Lind will get his chance to become a permanent NHLer in a season or two.

 

[Fuhrious]

Being a Rockets fan and watching play here his entire junior career, I am certainly routing for Lind but, at this stage of his career, that Lind is a "tweener": too good for the AHL but not good enough for the NHL.

Still, we do have several forwards who will become UFAs in the next 1-2 years (Eberle, Gourde, Tanev, Wennberg) and the Kraken will probably not be able or willing to resign all of them, so perhaps Lind will get his chance to become a permanent NHLer in a season or two.

I'm inclined to agree here; he had a decent cup of coffee with both Vancouver and the Kraken and doesnt seem to have impressed. I suspect he's likely going to be a 13/14F who does really well in the AHL but cant seem to make the jump, similar to McCormick/Poturalski/Limoges.

Would love to see different but the trajectory seems to say otherwise.

 

[Kat Predator]

I'm inclined to agree here; he had a decent cup of coffee with both Vancouver and the Kraken and doesnt seem to have impressed. I suspect he's likely going to be a 13/14F who does really well in the AHL but cant seem to make the jump, similar to McCormick/Poturalski/Limoges.

Would love to see different but the trajectory seems to say otherwise.

He was a bit of a pendulum in the Calder Cup finals. He'd wow you one shift and then flub up the next.

 

[Irie]

Being a Rockets fan and watching play here his entire junior career, I am certainly rooting for Lind but, at this stage of his career, Lind is a "tweener": too good for the AHL but not good enough for the NHL.

Still, we do have several forwards who will become UFAs in the next 1-2 years (Eberle, Gourde, Tanev, Wennberg) and the Kraken will probably not be able or willing to resign all of them, so perhaps Lind will get his chance to become a permanent NHLer in a season or two.

Seattle had possibly the deepest bottom six in the league, so being a rookie and not being able to stick here might say more about the team than Lind. He didn't stand out in limited games in 21-22, but he was completely serviceable in a fourth line role and didn't really hurt the team while making some plays.

Unfortunately for him, he was in the same boat with Appleton, Bastian, Donato, and Geekie, and he was the only one that was waiver exempt.

Looking forward to seeing what he brings to camp this year. I think he ends up in the NHL this season, just not positive it will be in Seattle.

 

[kihei]

WIth the depth we have at forward ... again this year ... when does he really get called up? Currently, I would think he is the 14th forward, right? With the top-10 being pretty set, I would think Lind is somewhere behind Bellemare, Yamamoto and Kartye.

This is not counting Wright because I have no idea what happens with him this season. OHL, AHL or NHL?

For Wright, I think he would have to have a decidedly stellar camp for it to be the NHL, at the start of the season anyway. OHL or AHL, I'd guess the Kraken brain trust probably already have a pretty good idea but obviously see no reason to go public and risk putting undue pressure on Wright.

 

[finnishflash13]

Well, again it was one season and that's a bit small of a sample size.
He also couldn't beat out Justin Schultz for the #1pp spot and didn't play great during the playoffs.

I think that's why we agree in that it wouldn't be the greatest idea to give him a huge deal just yet.



Again, one season.

Where was he listed the years before that?
Also, how many guys finished around the 9 - 12 spot)in past years) in that race and were hardly ever mentioned again?

No one disagrees that he had a very good season last year. It's more about handing him a huge longterm contract after just one season like that.
That's why I brought up the possibiltiy of giving him a shorter deal.




To me Pesce is more of an all around defensively sound RHD.
A bit like Larsson in that regard, IMO.

You realize that for most players their big paydays come after one successful season? He had a career year at the right time.

 

[The Marquis]

You realize that for most players their big paydays come after one successful season? He had a career year at the right time.

I think everybody realizes that, and we have also all seen that most of those players end up not living up to their contracts when they get a big payday after a single career year.

 

[Fuhrious]

You realize that for most players their big paydays come after one successful season? He had a career year at the right time.

Except he could have timed it slightly better and done it just before UFA instead of RFA?

He’ll catch a decent decision from the Arb but not as gaudy as letting dummy GMs shower him with cash in the open market.

So now he gets to deal with “show us it wasn’t a fluke”

 

[RainyCityHockey]

You realize that for most players their big paydays come after one successful season? He had a career year at the right time.

Yeah, it happens quite often.
And like @The Marquis has said quite a few of those who sign after one good year never play up to their contracts.

BTW: Dunn's arbitration hearing is set for July 24th.
Ron has two more weeks to get something done.

2023 Salary Arbitration Tracker

The hearing dates for all 23 player- and team-elected arbitration cases were set Monday by the NHLPA.

www.prohockeyrumors.com

 

[garmonbozia]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but, with player elected arbitration the team gets to decide if they accept the decision for one year, two years, or they can walk away entirely if it's above 4.5m.

I think that plays to the team's favor greatly. It would only be a walk away situation if it's greater than the 9+ left in cap space (assuming they wouldn't use the new buyout period to open a hole elsewhere that late in the offseason). Anything less and Francis takes the two years and keeps him for at least one. Then looks to move him after next offseason if something longer can't get worked out fairly.

It feels like gambling a year of UFA on the arbitrators decision is awfully risky for Dunn. I bet he settles for 8m AAV, give or take 250k, on a 5ish year deal before it gets to the 24th.

 

[Irie]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but, with player elected arbitration the team gets to decide if they accept the decision for one year, two years, or they can walk away entirely if it's above 4.5m.

I think that plays to the team's favor greatly. It would only be a walk away situation if it's greater than the 9+ left in cap space (assuming they wouldn't use the new buyout period to open a hole elsewhere that late in the offseason). Anything less and Francis takes the two years and keeps him for at least one. Then looks to move him after next offseason if something longer can't get worked out fairly.

It feels like gambling a year of UFA on the arbitrators decision is awfully risky for Dunn. I bet he settles for 8m AAV, give or take 250k, on a 5ish year deal before it gets to the 24th.

I am pretty sure that in arbitration, team or player elected, the two year option is only available if the player has two or more RFA years left, so Dunn's ruling would be one year only.

Walking away would be a HUGE loss of an extremely valuable asset. Francis could move Dunn for solid value if he is willing to take some salary back in some other dump on top of whatever the offer, so hopefully walking away is not a realistic option for this front office.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but, with player elected arbitration the team gets to decide if they accept the decision for one year, two years, or they can walk away entirely if it's above 4.5m.

I think that plays to the team's favor greatly. It would only be a walk away situation if it's greater than the 9+ left in cap space (assuming they wouldn't use the new buyout period to open a hole elsewhere that late in the offseason). Anything less and Francis takes the two years and keeps him for at least one. Then looks to move him after next offseason if something longer can't get worked out fairly.

It feels like gambling a year of UFA on the arbitrators decision is awfully risky for Dunn. I bet he settles for 8m AAV, give or take 250k, on a 5ish year deal before it gets to the 24th.

I am pretty sure that in arbitration, team or player elected, the two year option is only available if the player has two or more RFA years left, so Dunn's ruling would be one year only.

Walking away would be a HUGE loss of an extremely valuable asset. Francis could move Dunn for solid value if he is willing to take some salary back in some other dump on top of whatever the offer, so hopefully walking away is not a realistic option for this front office.

Arbitration contracts can be awarded for one or two years and the party that didn't file for arbitration(in this case the Kraken) can decide if the deal should be for one or two years.

And of course the Kraken wouldn't be walking away from the deal cause they, at worst, could trade Dunn for a return of he doesn't want to be with the team anymore/didn't like what was said in hearings.

 

[Irie]

Arbitration contracts can be awarded for one or two years and the party that didn't file for arbitration(in this case the Kraken) can decide if the deal should be for one or two years.

And of course the Kraken wouldn't be walking away from the deal cause they, at worst, could trade Dunn for a return of he doesn't want to be with the team anymore/didn't like what was said in hearings.

Pretty sure this is inaccurate.

From Puckpedia:

Arbitration Rulings

The arbitrator can only award a 1 or 2 year contract. The party that did not elect the arbitration selects the term (if the player selected arbitration, the team selects 1 or 2 year term). Players that are only 1 year away from being a UFA can only have a 1 year contract awarded.


I am too lazy to find it in the CBA, but I believe what Puckpedia has posted is accurate. I think it has been that Arbitration can't cover UFA years for quite a long time, so in Dunn's case, it would only be a single year either way.

 

[garmonbozia]

Pretty sure this is inaccurate.

From Puckpedia:

Arbitration Rulings

The arbitrator can only award a 1 or 2 year contract. The party that did not elect the arbitration selects the term (if the player selected arbitration, the team selects 1 or 2 year term). Players that are only 1 year away from being a UFA can only have a 1 year contract awarded.


I am too lazy to find it in the CBA, but I believe what Puckpedia has posted is accurate. I think it has been that Arbitration can't cover UFA years for quite a long time, so in Dunn's case, it would only be a single year either way.

Fair enough and sensible regarding arbitration not being for UFA years.

On the walk away aspect...wouldn't Francis have to trade Dunn before the hearing if that is the route he was going? After the arbitrator has made his decision the only options are accept or reject, and if rejected, Dunn immediately becomes a UFA? Its not like there is additional term to find a trade. Or is that wrong too?

 

[Irie]

Fair enough and sensible regarding arbitration not being for UFA years.

On the walk away aspect...wouldn't Francis have to trade Dunn before the hearing if that is the route he was going? After the arbitrator has made his decision the only options are accept or reject, and if rejected, Dunn immediately becomes a UFA? Its not like there is additional term to find a trade. Or is that wrong too?

Seattle could trade Dunn before or after the hearing. There are no restrictions. Of course, if he is awarded the bank, trading him after will be much more difficult and his value will be limited with only having one year left until UFA.

The big issue with arbitration is that it can get pretty ugly, and often ruins the player-team relationship. It never feels good to hear the team you play for belittling your contributions and abilities to make a case to pay you less, so most GMs try to avoid it at all costs, and it is why players rarely actually make it to arbitration, even though so many file every year.

*edit* The above scenario is if the team accepts the arbitration, if they reject it, Dunn becomes a UFA immediately, and Seattle no longer would have any rights to trade.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Seattle could trade Dunn before or after the hearing. There are no restrictions. Of course, if he is awarded the bank, trading him after will be much more difficult and his value will be limited with only having one year left until UFA.

The big issue with arbitration is that it can get pretty ugly, and often ruins the player-team relationship. It never feels good to hear the team you play for belittling your contributions and abilities to make a case to pay you less, so most GMs try to avoid it at all costs, and it is why players rarely actually make it to arbitration, even though so many file every year.

*edit* The above scenario is if the team accepts the arbitration, if they reject it, Dunn becomes a UFA immediately, and Seattle no longer would have any rights to trade.

I am not sure Francis wants to get to arbitration either. He has an idea on what Dunn wants, and if there is no agreement reached, I think he should look at moving Dunn before then. Even see if he can do a sign and trade to increase value of Dunn.

Based on how things normally go after arbitration, I would expect the player to fulfil his contract and walk away. Expect the same from Dunn.

 

[majormajor]

I am not sure Francis wants to get to arbitration either. He has an idea on what Dunn wants, and if there is no agreement reached, I think he should look at moving Dunn before then. Even see if he can do a sign and trade to increase value of Dunn.

Based on how things normally go after arbitration, I would expect the player to fulfil his contract and walk away. Expect the same from Dunn.

I think it might be a big mistake to move Dunn. Let's just see if he's still playing like a #1D and make a decision during the year.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I think it might be a big mistake to move Dunn. Let's just see if he's still playing like a #1D and make a decision during the year.

Francis nor any of us can predict the future. Maybe Dunn will be worth it. Maybe not. We have the luxury of looking back and blaming Francis for either giving into Dunn or letting him walk. Francis has to make the call in less than 2 weeks.

Not many of us can argue that losing Dunn will be a step back. But giving in to him sets a precedent for the team and the younger players which he may not want to do.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

Pretty sure this is inaccurate.

From Puckpedia:

Arbitration Rulings

The arbitrator can only award a 1 or 2 year contract. The party that did not elect the arbitration selects the term (if the player selected arbitration, the team selects 1 or 2 year term). Players that are only 1 year away from being a UFA can only have a 1 year contract awarded.


I am too lazy to find it in the CBA, but I believe what Puckpedia has posted is accurate. I think it has been that Arbitration can't cover UFA years for quite a long time, so in Dunn's case, it would only be a single year either way.

Look at that guy trying using facts...so I was two out of three and it would only be a one year deal...

I am not sure Francis wants to get to arbitration either. He has an idea on what Dunn wants, and if there is no agreement reached, I think he should look at moving Dunn before then. Even see if he can do a sign and trade to increase value of Dunn.

Based on how things normally go after arbitration, I would expect the player to fulfil his contract and walk away. Expect the same from Dunn.

Yeah, if you can't come to an agreement you've got to look into moving him.

I think it might be a big mistake to move Dunn. Let's just see if he's still playing like a #1D and make a decision during the year.

Moving him before arbitration would only happen to a team willing to give him a deal he wants, which would net us a better return than just trading him after the season during his final year.

Francis nor any of us can predict the future. Maybe Dunn will be worth it. Maybe not. We have the luxury of looking back and blaming Francis for either giving into Dunn or letting him walk. Francis has to make the call in less than 2 weeks.

Not many of us can argue that losing Dunn will be a step back. But giving in to him sets a precedent for the team and the younger players which he may not want to do.

It would be a bit like the Leafs with their young guys in 2017 and given the rumors of what Matthews, Marner etc. are looking for in ther nexxt deals(not taking less to help the team build a winner) it set a pretty bad example.

But let's just see what actually happens here.

 

[majormajor]

Moving him before arbitration would only happen to a team willing to give him a deal he wants, which would net us a better return than just trading him after the season during his final year.

I don't think trade value should be the biggest consideration here. We're not getting #1D value back (e.g. multiple 1st rounders) for a guy with this limited track record.

 

[rsteen]

I don't think trade value should be the biggest consideration here. We're not getting #1D value back (e.g. multiple 1st rounders) for a guy with this limited track record.

Is there even a team out there who would give him the deal he wants, especially if he wants term? Every GM is going to see the same limited track record. Given his age, he's a win-now asset, but what contending team has cap space to add him?

 

[Kat Predator]

Is there even a team out there who would give him the deal he wants, especially if he wants term? Every GM is going to see the same limited track record. Given his age, he's a win-now asset, but what contending team has cap space to add him?

A tanking team might throw money at him to get to the cap floor. But yeah, a contending team? Not so much.

 

[majormajor]

Is there even a team out there who would give him the deal he wants, especially if he wants term? Every GM is going to see the same limited track record. Given his age, he's a win-now asset, but what contending team has cap space to add him?

I think in free agency right now he'd get close to $8m x 8. The Kraken are seemingly risk averse, but some clubs are willing to take the risk. They need a #1D so they just hope he plays like one. But I don't see those clubs paying much in trade value for him on top of that.