Buffalo Bills Season's End: The Off-Seasons Starts Now

[Jim Bob]

It brought a lot of teams to 4 and 5 losses. the teams above us mainly dropped, and the teams below us caught up. I think most would think that’s good.

But it’s too early to tell what outcomes are actually good or bad!

Personally, the only game that really matters this weekend for the Bills is tonight with Miami having a bye.

The easiest path to the playoffs is just being one game better than Miami the rest of the way.

 

[Jim Bob]

We can't bring Daboll back and he had lots of down moments and shortcomings too, but Dorsey needs to do more than call a cover 2 beater when the defense calls a cover 2 so that the EPA looks good. They need way more of an attacking mentality.

The Daboll love and looking to the past is selective memory. Every time the offense went through lulls under Daboll, people wanted him fired, too. The week after the 9-6 loss to the Urban Meyer led Jags...

And the last 5 games, they have had an attacking mentality. One big issue with the lack of chunk plays over the last 5 games is that Allen has gone from a top 10 deep passer over the first 4 games to a bottom 3 deep passer over the last 5 games.

Him misplacing the deep shot to Harty was a good example. That could have gone for a big play, but the execution wasn't there.

Just like Diggs blamed himself for getting beaten on a jump ball deep shot by a small CB.

One big challenge is that Beane has not invested heavily in the WR position outside of Diggs. And when defenses have shifted, Beane has not been willing or able to replace Davis at WR2 with a guy that is a run after the catch threat. That is what you need with the way that defenses have adapted over the past couple of years.

 

[Jim Bob]

I have been offline since Thursday morning because of my wife's surgery (all went well). I was able to listen to these three podcasts and watch the Ringer video. At the end of the day, like most complex issues, there is no one simple answer to the issues with the Bills offense. But, here is where I think a lot of it lies.

1) There is a shift defensively around the league and you see top offenses with franchise QBs struggling more than a lot would expect. For instance, KC scored 19 & 9 points against a Denver team that gave up 70 to Miami. And KC has failed to score 24 points in 6 out of 9 games. Yet, they are 7-2.

2) The injuries on defense, and uncharacteristically bad special teams, have meant that the Bills have not been creating turnovers and not giving the Bills good starting field position. Bills fans are sick of hearing about complementary football, but the defense and STs are not making things easy for the offense by any stretch.

3) Who knows if it is from Beane, McDermott, or Dorsey, but they have reacted to a lot of the off season talk about Josh running less and taking less hits. That has taken a club or two out of the offensive bag and that makes things harder.

4) People also talked about Allen ADOT of 11+ yards last year was too much YOLO. So, this year his ADOT is below 9 yards and he leads the NFL in Comp% at 71.3%. The problem is that the Bills do not have a lot of receivers that are good at creating after the catch. Shakir is averaging 5.1 YAC/R, Kincaid is at 4.4, and Diggs and Davis are at 3.6. That means that the Bills have nobody in the top 25 in the NFL in YAC/R for WRs & TEs. Cook is 13th for RBs at 8.8 YAC/R. Cook also leads all RBs with a 1.9 ADOT.

5) The one thing that Dorsey lacks are the two or three "surprise" plays a game that Daboll had. Dorsey does stick a little bit too much to his script and rarely has a play that is completely out of nowhere. But, that is sizzle and not the steak for the most part.

6) Allen has been much better in the Red Zone this season than maybe at any time in his career. The challenge is that with the lack of takeaways and the longer drives because of the poor field position and the more efficient offense means that they aren't getting in the Red Zone as many times per game as in the past.

7) The Bills are getting called for more penalties per game than they have since 2019.

8) The Bills have gotten unlucky with INTs this season with almost every bad decision or throw by Allen getting picked off and some have been with lucky bounces going against the Bills.

The rest of the way, I really see this going one of two ways and neither of which are guaranteed to work out.

They can go "Release the Kraken" and lean back into Allen as a dual threat QB and just ride The Josh Allen Experience, for good and for ill, the rest of the way. That could create more offense. It could also create more turnovers and put more pressure on the defense that is just decimated with injuries.

Or, they can just keep doing what they have been doing with being efficient and just hope that they get a little luckier, execute a little better, and take fewer penalties.

 

[kirby11]

Hoping the offense has a get right game. Expecting them to yet again play like crap for the entire first half, score 10 points at the most, and end up in a mess of a dogfight for the second half.

 

[kirby11]

I have been offline since Thursday morning because of my wife's surgery (all went well). I was able to listen to these three podcasts and watch the Ringer video. At the end of the day, like most complex issues, there is no one simple answer to the issues with the Bills offense. But, here is where I think a lot of it lies.

1) There is a shift defensively around the league and you see top offenses with franchise QBs struggling more than a lot would expect. For instance, KC scored 19 & 9 points against a Denver team that gave up 70 to Miami. And KC has failed to score 24 points in 6 out of 9 games. Yet, they are 7-2.

2) The injuries on defense, and uncharacteristically bad special teams, have meant that the Bills have not been creating turnovers and not giving the Bills good starting field position. Bills fans are sick of hearing about complementary football, but the defense and STs are not making things easy for the offense by any stretch.

3) Who knows if it is from Beane, McDermott, or Dorsey, but they have reacted to a lot of the off season talk about Josh running less and taking less hits. That has taken a club or two out of the offensive bag and that makes things harder.

4) People also talked about Allen ADOT of 11+ yards last year was too much YOLO. So, this year his ADOT is below 9 yards and he leads the NFL in Comp% at 71.3%. The problem is that the Bills do not have a lot of receivers that are good at creating after the catch. Shakir is averaging 5.1 YAC/R, Kincaid is at 4.4, and Diggs and Davis are at 3.6. That means that the Bills have nobody in the top 25 in the NFL in YAC/R for WRs & TEs. Cook is 13th for RBs at 8.8 YAC/R. Cook also leads all RBs with a 1.9 ADOT.

5) The one thing that Dorsey lacks are the two or three "surprise" plays a game that Daboll had. Dorsey does stick a little bit too much to his script and rarely has a play that is completely out of nowhere. But, that is sizzle and not the steak for the most part.

6) Allen has been much better in the Red Zone this season than maybe at any time in his career. The challenge is that with the lack of takeaways and the longer drives because of the poor field position and the more efficient offense means that they aren't getting in the Red Zone as many times per game as in the past.

7) The Bills are getting called for more penalties per game than they have since 2019.

8) The Bills have gotten unlucky with INTs this season with almost every bad decision or throw by Allen getting picked off and some have been with lucky bounces going against the Bills.

The rest of the way, I really see this going one of two ways and neither of which are guaranteed to work out.

They can go "Release the Kraken" and lean back into Allen as a dual threat QB and just ride The Josh Allen Experience, for good and for ill, the rest of the way. That could create more offense. It could also create more turnovers and put more pressure on the defense that is just decimated with injuries.

Or, they can just keep doing what they have been doing with being efficient and just hope that they get a little luckier, execute a little better, and take fewer penalties.

Some of it is definitely that defenses have been playing better and Josh is missing throws, but to add on to this--outside of the Davis fake screen/slot wheel route TD against Miami and one missed pass to Kincaid down the sideline vs. Cincy, I'm struggling to recall plays where Dorsey cleanly schemed someone open 15-25 yards downfield. It's not like it happened every single play with Daboll, but I distinctly remember play designs unlocking more open chunk plays in the intermediate areas of the field in 2020 and 2021, both over/near the middle and along the boundary.

 

[TehDoak]

I mean, I see this game as both a must win and a win where the offense has to give us.

We probably don't need 30+ points to beat Denver.

But, we need to score 20+. And we probably have to get up by two scores in the 4th quarter.

 

[Jim Bob]

Some of it is definitely that defenses have been playing better and Josh is missing throws, but to add on to this--outside of the Davis fake screen/slot wheel route TD against Miami and one missed pass to Kincaid down the sideline vs. Cincy, I'm struggling to recall plays where Dorsey cleanly schemed someone open 15-25 yards downfield. It's not like it happened every single play with Daboll, but I distinctly remember play designs unlocking more open chunk plays in the intermediate areas of the field in 2020 and 2021, both over/near the middle and along the boundary.

Part of that is the defenses that the Bills saw in 2020 and 2021 were not playing the same way they are in 2023.

Dan O talked about how offenses need to run more to take defenses out of their two high shells and open up those plays down the field.

With Knox out, one thing the Bills could stand to do more stuff with 21 personnel and Reggie G as the lead FB. With as good as Allen is at play action, 21 personnel with Gilliam and Kincaid out there with Diggs and Davis outside could open things up down the field if there is a real threat that they are going to run the ball down the other team's throat.

But, if they can't run block, then you get fans complaining that they are taking the ball out of Allen's hands...

At the end of the day, there are no guarantees outside of fans bemoaning a lack of results and acting like doing anything different will work.

I mean, I see this game as both a must win and a win where the offense has to give us.

We probably don't need 30+ points to beat Denver.

But, we need to score 20+. And we probably have to get up by two scores in the 4th quarter.

Given how well the Denver defense played against KC, getting 20+ points could be a bigger challenge than anyone wants to admit.

 

[LetsGoBuffalo1126]

I'm on Team "Just Win the Game". I'd love for it to be a boat-racing but the Bills have shown no ability to do that to teams since Week 4. With all of these injuries, I'm just hoping for them to stay healthy and score one more point than Denver!

 

[Jim Bob]

Russini: What I'm hearing on the Panthers, Bijan Robinson, Bill Belichick and more

The Panthers are in need of some positives, while Falcons fans should get clarity soon on their star rookie running back's role.

theathletic.com

What’s going on in Buffalo​

It almost feels like a tradition in Buffalo. Right before we get to Thanksgiving, someone has to be blamed for the Bills’ problems. Right now, the target is on offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Quarterback Josh Allen tried to quiet the noise this past week, showing full support for his coach, explaining that the players need to execute the offense better and make better decisions.

Bills head coach Sean McDermott backed Dorsey when asked if the team has discussed taking away play-calling duties. He replied, “No.”

When I was with ESPN, the Bills were one of the main teams I was assigned to cover, and this all feels very familiar. In 2021, fans were calling for the firing of then-play caller Brian Daboll after the Bills only scored six points against Jacksonville. They went on to reach the AFC divisional round, and Daboll went on to become the New York Giants head coach and AP Coach of the Year in his first season.

In this situation, there is genuine belief and confidence in Dorsey, so I don’t expect any changes. We’ll see how much of this offense improves Monday night, when the Bills host the Denver Broncos. Allen has led the Bills to wins in 82 percent of their games coming off a loss, but how about these stats in favor of Broncos coach Sean Payton:

Since 1992 on Monday Night Football, Payton has a 65.4 percent (17-9) win rate, third only to Mike Tomlin at 84 percent (21-4) and Andy Reid at 66.7 percent (24-12). Payton also owns the best record for head coaches in October at 44-13, or 75.9 percent. New England’s Bill Belichick is next at 71.9 percent (82-32).

 

[Asymmetric Solution]

Was it though?

Currently, there are 11 AFC teams with 5 wins or more.

All today did was bunch the field up, which doesn't help us that much.

I’d rather have less teams separating right now than a bunch of teams solidifying top spots. There will be ways in that chaos over 3-4 teams truly dominating and locking up spots.

I need huge fantasy points from the Bills tonight, including Cook. Hoping for a boat race.

 

[Fezzy126]

The Daboll love and looking to the past is selective memory. Every time the offense went through lulls under Daboll, people wanted him fired, too. The week after the 9-6 loss to the Urban Meyer led Jags...

And the last 5 games, they have had an attacking mentality. One big issue with the lack of chunk plays over the last 5 games is that Allen has gone from a top 10 deep passer over the first 4 games to a bottom 3 deep passer over the last 5 games.

Him misplacing the deep shot to Harty was a good example. That could have gone for a big play, but the execution wasn't there.

Just like Diggs blamed himself for getting beaten on a jump ball deep shot by a small CB.

One big challenge is that Beane has not invested heavily in the WR position outside of Diggs. And when defenses have shifted, Beane has not been willing or able to replace Davis at WR2 with a guy that is a run after the catch threat. That is what you need with the way that defenses have adapted over the past couple of years.

I may have posted a highlight video from Daboll's time here, but my first sentence was literally stating that Daboll had his warts. There is nothing selective about my memory. I also wasn't a person that advocated for his firing, ever. I always acknowledged that Daboll had bad weeks, bad gameplans, and bad playcalls, but that just made him like anyone else. I always thought the overall design of the offensive system was very good.

So bottom line, I believe:

• Daboll had a very good offense that had some bad days
• Dorsey has an average offense that has some good days

I say this as someone that wanted Dorsey, I wanted to keep continuity with the staff for Allen's sake. I also wasn't that hard on Dorsey last year knowing that he's young and has the potential to grow, I've always said this. But we're now firmly in year #2 and his offense still lacks depth, flow, and growth. It's not trick plays for me, it's about building complimentary route combinations and breaking tendencies once teams start figuring you out. It's about using creative alignments and motions to keep the defense off balance and have more of an attacking mentality (when I use the phrase attacking mentaility it does not refer to throws downfield). The Cover 1 guys have done some nice videos breaking things down, but the video from Kollmann that @stealth1 posted the other day was best one I've seen to date. He mentioned these problems specifically affecting the design of the run game, but these same principles apply to the passing game as well.

The example I gave about skill position weapons hits the nail on the head, Daboll made everyone a viable weapon in his offense, while under Dorsey everyone questions the weapons, including Allen! If there's one thing we all should have learned from watching Rivers in San Diego all those years, when people start to question a top 5 QB in the league, it means you have a coaching problem.

I have been offline since Thursday morning because of my wife's surgery (all went well). I was able to listen to these three podcasts and watch the Ringer video. At the end of the day, like most complex issues, there is no one simple answer to the issues with the Bills offense. But, here is where I think a lot of it lies.

1) There is a shift defensively around the league and you see top offenses with franchise QBs struggling more than a lot would expect. For instance, KC scored 19 & 9 points against a Denver team that gave up 70 to Miami. And KC has failed to score 24 points in 6 out of 9 games. Yet, they are 7-2.

2) The injuries on defense, and uncharacteristically bad special teams, have meant that the Bills have not been creating turnovers and not giving the Bills good starting field position. Bills fans are sick of hearing about complementary football, but the defense and STs are not making things easy for the offense by any stretch.

3) Who knows if it is from Beane, McDermott, or Dorsey, but they have reacted to a lot of the off season talk about Josh running less and taking less hits. That has taken a club or two out of the offensive bag and that makes things harder.

4) People also talked about Allen ADOT of 11+ yards last year was too much YOLO. So, this year his ADOT is below 9 yards and he leads the NFL in Comp% at 71.3%. The problem is that the Bills do not have a lot of receivers that are good at creating after the catch. Shakir is averaging 5.1 YAC/R, Kincaid is at 4.4, and Diggs and Davis are at 3.6. That means that the Bills have nobody in the top 25 in the NFL in YAC/R for WRs & TEs. Cook is 13th for RBs at 8.8 YAC/R. Cook also leads all RBs with a 1.9 ADOT.

5) The one thing that Dorsey lacks are the two or three "surprise" plays a game that Daboll had. Dorsey does stick a little bit too much to his script and rarely has a play that is completely out of nowhere. But, that is sizzle and not the steak for the most part.

6) Allen has been much better in the Red Zone this season than maybe at any time in his career. The challenge is that with the lack of takeaways and the longer drives because of the poor field position and the more efficient offense means that they aren't getting in the Red Zone as many times per game as in the past.

7) The Bills are getting called for more penalties per game than they have since 2019.

8) The Bills have gotten unlucky with INTs this season with almost every bad decision or throw by Allen getting picked off and some have been with lucky bounces going against the Bills.

The rest of the way, I really see this going one of two ways and neither of which are guaranteed to work out.

They can go "Release the Kraken" and lean back into Allen as a dual threat QB and just ride The Josh Allen Experience, for good and for ill, the rest of the way. That could create more offense. It could also create more turnovers and put more pressure on the defense that is just decimated with injuries.

Or, they can just keep doing what they have been doing with being efficient and just hope that they get a little luckier, execute a little better, and take fewer penalties.

I agree with a lot here, these are all absolutely reasons for our record - Our offense is not only the reason we are struggling.

However, focusing only on our offense's problems, as Kollmann suggests the run game needs way more creativity. Chan Gailey was tremendous at designing blocking schemes that created advantageous angles for his linemen & TEs, ours is so much more hat on hat, beat your man. The most creative thing I've seen us do is pull our tackle through the middle of the line. Given how big and athletic defenses are these days, no one can succeed with such a vanilla approach. Seriously, if anyone hasn't seen that video it's a must see...

(Happy to hear your wife's surgery went well!)

 

[TageGod]

Bills need to watch some Raven's film on how to scheme up run blocking. Also they can, you know, send the speed back out wide instead of up the middle....and NO MORE SHOTGUN DRAWS UP THE MIDDLE ON SECOND DOWN.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

McAfee to Schefter, "Something's going on in the Buffalo"

Bills need to watch some Raven's film on how to scheme up run blocking. Also they can, you know, send the speed back out wide instead of up the middle....and NO MORE SHOTGUN DRAWS UP THE MIDDLE ON SECOND DOWN.

They should of dumped Kromer this summer.

 

[TageGod]

McAfee to Schefter, "Something's going on in the Buffalo"



They should of dumped Kromer this summer.

By all accounts the O-line is much better this year. Being better in the run game was a bonus, but they aren't utilizing what they have, a common issue with Dorsey.

What I want to see is pre snap motion, and a lot more Harty get him going full speed and snap the ball or do it with cook at least. Just one wrinkle is enough to make a defense think an extra second. They need to throw out their offensive playbook. Defenses know what we are doing every time.

 

[kirby11]

Bills need to watch some Raven's film on how to scheme up run blocking. Also they can, you know, send the speed back out wide instead of up the middle....and NO MORE SHOTGUN DRAWS UP THE MIDDLE ON SECOND DOWN.

The sprint draw out of the gun, in particular, has been abysmal ever since the second half of week 1. They haven't added a single wrinkle to it, so LBers and d-lineman can all sprint downhill at Cook as soon as Allen starts making that lateral shuffle to his side to hand the ball off.

I also have no idea why they've completely removed the jet sweep push pass from the playbook. There were so many times where McKenzie could just scoot around the edge for an easy 5-7 yards. You gotta think Harty could do the same, and as you said, it would at least force defenders to hesitate for a beat as they try to decipher where the ball's going.

 

[Mike McDermott]

I don’t know if it’s the fact that I’m having an incredibly shitty Monday or what but I’m incredibly nervous for tonight. I just have this feeling in the pit of my stomach we are going to shit the bed worse than we have in any other game this season.

 

[Jim Bob]

Opinion: Bills’ offense efficient recently moving the ball, not scoring points

Feels like one matters more than the other

www.buffalorumblings.com

Yards per point: this is a “degree of difficulty” measurement. How many yards does an offense need to get to obtain a point? This is a metric heavily influenced by starting field position. If you have to drive 80 yards to get a touchdown, your probability of doing so is much smaller than if you have to cross 50 yards.

For the entire year, the Bills are seventh-best in yards per point in the NFL (fewer yards per point is better) at 13.9. However, over the last three games, the Bills are 17th best in this same metric (16.2). You might be thinking that 2.3 yards per point on average isn’t much of a deal, but it represents the difference between the 2023 averages for the Dallas Cowboys’ offense (which has been good in 2023) and the Green Bay Packers’ offense (which is sputtering and searching for answers).

 

[ValJamesDuex]

 

[yahhockey]

In case anyone was wondering like I was when I read Norman and another practice squad elevation...per search engine:

Practice squad players can be gameday elevations a maximum of 3 times, at which point they either have to be signed to the active roster or pass through waivers, then be re-signed to the practice squad, at which point they are eligible for another 3 games (regular or postseason)

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Capaccio: Broncos at Bills: Sal’s keys, notes and stats

The Buffalo Bills will be trying to bounce back from last Sunday night’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals when they take on the Denver Broncos on “Monday Night Football” in Orchard Park. Sal Capaccio has his keys to the game:

www.audacy.com

 

[ValJamesDuex]

from SalC

 

[truthbluth]

Expecting the boys to lay an egg. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Bill pregame thinks the Bills nickel tonight will be Rapp and Cam Lewis in.

Denver only has 4 active receivers tonight. They all have pretty good size.

 

[Waterfowlist]

Any news on bernard

 

[Zman5778]

Bill pregame thinks the Bills nickel tonight will be Rapp and Cam Lewis in.

Taron Johnson is healthy. Yes, he's undersized a bit........but he's the nickel.