Scott Wheeler mid season ranking

[FriendlyGhost92]

It would be best if you could post some other prospect lists published fall 2020 and 2021 please so that we can compare. Pointing out some misses on the Wheeler lists really means little without context in terms of what other published opinions were out there.

Other lists are pretty irrelevant to the actual criticism I've made this entire thread, which is that he either badly undervalues defense or is a stat watcher.

If the criticism were "He misses the boat on obvious guys" then yeah, other lists would matter as you could say every other sports journalist ranked them differently from Wheeler. (And everybody has their misses) That's not the criticism. It's that Wheeler particularly has a habit of nonsensically undervaluing a certain type of player.

 

[bossram]

I’ve noticed this too. But I think the biggest change for Pronman is that he either has way more access to trusty NHL scouting sources, or just willingly aligns with those sources he’s had more closely than before. Just seems more “NHL teams are going to bet on this big D man early, and I’ll agree”.

And yeah his writeups are just ass now. Which is why I also like Wheeler outside of his whacky rankings. It’s important to remember that the main job these people have is informing fans on what’s going on with prospects. Of course rankings are going to be super subjective. I care more about absorbing different qualities of a crop of prospects. And I can learn about those very well through Wheeler. And I can get a good sense of how the 1st RD will shake out through Pronman

Yeah, I think Pronman pretty much just ranks players to match with how he thinks the draft will go from his sources. And his write-ups are truly awful. They say nothing other than whether a guy is a good or bad skater and whether he's small and skilled or big and physical. There is no nuance or detail.

People can criticize Wheeler's rankings, but he at least is trying to communicate something to you and accurately describe the attributes and style of a player.

 

[bossram]

Following Wheeler and Pronman over the past two drafts has been fascinating. Both have their favourite types (Wheeler, for instance, loves small skilled players, regardless of position, even if they have a severe flaw) and have pretty significant blind spots. Wheeler is the better writer and has more consistency. Pronman seems to have the better eye for NHL traits and is far better and understanding what teams are looking for.

I like reading both their stuff even if I think Wheeler isn't actually good at picking out NHL traits. They both know far less than they let on, focus heavily on the next draft, and are usually a season behind a prospects development.

I think Wheeler is actually very effective at describing a player's traits. His write-ups are very detailed and nuanced.

It's just the holistic evaluation he seems to get wrong more often.

Pronman is worse. I don't even think he's even ranking players himself this point. He just ranks accordingly from what he hears from his NHL sources, so even if he's wrong, he's wrong in the same direction as NHL teams and looks less stupid. Just trying to cover his ass. I did think he had a better innate evaluation of players, but that seems harder to believe when his write-ups really don't say anything about a player in any level of detail. I think his thought process isn't much more than just, "this guy is big, NHL teams like big guys, I will rank high".

 

[bossram]

Pronman is pretty decent imo but his write ups don’t match his grades which drives me nuts. We see the game slightly different but he actually hustles and sees a lot of these guys live which matters. I respect his work even if I don’t always agree with it.

I just dont get the same vibe with Wheeler. Was it Tyler Boucher he claimed to have watched when Boucher wasn’t even at the event? If you compare how Wheeler writes to HP, Brock Otten, or Pronman... I’m not sure I trust the guy is actually watching as much as he portrays. He really over describes players and can’t keep his eval and projection simple. Idk. Maybe I’m wrong.

This seems to me like a good thing.

A guy like Pronman will just tell you, this guy is a "bad/good/great" skater. That really isn't saying anything. How does he skate? Does he accelerate fast? Straight line speed? More "quick" on his edges and able to make sharp cuts? Strong on his skates? Wheeler actually tries to describe more of these things, which indicates to me he actually watches closer and is trying to communicate something to the reader.

Wheeler's holistic evaluation is more off, I would agree.

 

[Vector]

I think Wheeler is actually very effective at describing a player's traits. His write-ups are very detailed and nuanced.

It's just the holistic evaluation he seems to get wrong more often.

Pronman is worse. I don't even think he's even ranking players himself this point. He just ranks accordingly from what he hears from his NHL sources, so even if he's wrong, he's wrong in the same direction as NHL teams and looks less stupid. Just trying to cover his ass. I did think he had a better innate evaluation of players, but that seems harder to believe when his write-ups really don't say anything about a player in any level of detail. I think his thought process isn't much more than just, "this guy is big, NHL teams like big guys, I will rank high".

Bolded is exactly what I mean when I say Wheeler is a better writer. He also is quite aware that his rankings do not conform to what NHL teams like.

I've mostly only been closely paying attention for the last two drafts and was aware of Pronman prior as someone who was wildly out to lunch with most of his evaluations. Of all the non-Bob rankings, his rankings come closest to how the NHL draft plays out. Which is a silly thing to equate since a personal ranking and the draft are two different things. He was the earliest writer to recognize Reinbacher and Willander and move them up. Was higher on Bystedt and Edstrom. I don't think it's a bad thing to recognize how NHL teams are choosing players and adjust your preferences accordingly. Most of his write-ups aren't informative but I think his final ranking and mock draft are both very well done, though.

 

[Castle8130]

Did Pronman put his rankings out yet? His rankings are pretty good for the most part because they are mostly the rankings of scouts he talks to

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

People gotta stop holding Wheeler to what his lists look like in hindsight. He’s giving his personal opinion on what he thinks. He’s done the work. He doesn’t get to pilot every NHL team though. He differs from NHL teams in what he likes. I disagree with him about things, but I think it’s very dishonest when people try to claim his personal opinions are indication he’s a bad scout when it’s obvious his opinions are things NHL teams are never going to give the chance to play out as he’d want.

 

[jfhabs]

Zayne Parekh at 6 is f***ing insane. He's not having some unrivaled scoring season. He's having a worse scoring season against the competition he faces than Buium, who is playing against better competition and isn't only an OFD.

What is even the scenario where Parekh at 6 gets you the value you hope from that slot? I guess you could say Erik Karlsson, but that'd be like saying you hope to get Bobby Hull out of Eiserman. The 100.0% outcome of a player's career is not in any way what you should be contemplating for a draft pick.

Is it worth it if you get Tyson Barrie or Tony DeAngelo at 6OA? Maybe. I'm open to that argument, but thats the upside of Zayne Parekh. The downside is you get Ryan Murphy or Ryan Merkley. Someone like Adam Boqvist is probably the middle ground.

This is a niche type of role in the NHL. Because of that, these players are inherently riskier. Seems to be leaving out all the risk of Parekh to rank him 6.

Erik Karlsson was a monster, people forget how good he was. If you have a 25%+ chance of getting that out of Parekh, he's worth a 5 - 10 selection

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Erik Karlsson was a monster, people forget how good he was. If you have a 25%+ chance of getting that out of Parekh, he's worth a 5 - 10 selection

25%? I wouldn't say the chances are that high. More like 3%.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Wheeler cares about one thing: offensive skill and flash.

 

[bossram]

Bolded is exactly what I mean when I say Wheeler is a better writer. He also is quite aware that his rankings do not conform to what NHL teams like.

I've mostly only been closely paying attention for the last two drafts and was aware of Pronman prior as someone who was wildly out to lunch with most of his evaluations. Of all the non-Bob rankings, his rankings come closest to how the NHL draft plays out. Which is a silly thing to equate since a personal ranking and the draft are two different things. He was the earliest writer to recognize Reinbacher and Willander and move them up. Was higher on Bystedt and Edstrom. I don't think it's a bad thing to recognize how NHL teams are choosing players and adjust your preferences accordingly. Most of his write-ups aren't informative but I think his final ranking and mock draft are both very well done, though.

I follow him mostly for the mocks (for betting purposes). He clearly is well-connected in the NHL scouting space.

But I think his rankings are more or less pointless now. He basically ranks accordingly with the NHL consensus, (except when he gets a scoop like with Nemec or Carlsson), so there isn't much value add relative to something like Bob's list. And his write-ups don't tell you anything, so there's no value add there. I even find he speaks the same way as his write-ups on his Athletic podcast hits. Really has no value to add.

 

[Peasy]

I follow him mostly for the mocks (for betting purposes). He clearly is well-connected in the NHL scouting space.

But I think his rankings are more or less pointless now. He basically ranks accordingly with the NHL consensus, (except when he gets a scoop like with Nemec or Carlsson), so there isn't much value add relative to something like Bob's list. And his write-ups don't tell you anything, so there's no value add there. I even find he speaks the same way as his write-ups on his Athletic podcast hits. Really has no value to add.

Man just talks in cliches. Hes like an NHL player durin an interview.

 

[bossram]

Man just talks in cliches. Hes like an NHL player durin an interview.

Every time he talks it's just some rehash of, "this guys is a good skater, he's big, he's physical", or "this guy is skilled, but he's smaller so I wonder if he has enough skill to make the NHL". There's basically no other content he provides.

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

That's not a bad point. It seems like he could very well be a top 10 pick. It just makes absolutely no sense to me, and I'd love anyone to explain to me the scenario where it makes sense.

It doesn't need to make sense to you. These are professionals.

 

[jfhabs]

25%? I wouldn't say the chances are that high. More like 3%.

I think it's closer to 3% maybe something like 10. I'm saying of a management group thinks there's a good enough chance, they might pick him 5-10

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Wheeler's Top 25 Drafted Prospects - August 2021:

1. Quinton Byfield
2. Cole Caufield
3. Owen Power
4. Trevor Zegras
5. Cole Perfetti
6. Kent Johnson
7. Brandt Clarke
8. Matty Beniers
9. Lucas Raymond
10. William Eklund
11. Moritz Seider (This was his "promotion" after Wheeler said he was wrong about Seider lol)
12. Alex Newhook
13. Matt Boldy
14. Marco Rossi
15. Bowen Byram
16. Dylan Guenther
17. Jamie Drysdale
18. Alexander Holtz
19. Luke Hughes
20. Anton Lundell
21. Mason McTavish
22. Chaz Lucius
23. Cole Sillinger
24. Simon Edvinsson
25. Arthur Kaliyev

Other notable picks:

27. Jake Sanderson (I suppose that's an improvement from #49)
36. Seth Jarvis (See comment on Sanderson)

Alex Holtz over Luke Hughes OMFG

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

It doesn't need to make sense to you. These are professionals.

What? So because the professional think something it shouldn't be debated on a message board.

 

[thrillhous]

Other lists are pretty irrelevant to the actual criticism I've made this entire thread, which is that he either badly undervalues defense or is a stat watcher.

If the criticism were "He misses the boat on obvious guys" then yeah, other lists would matter as you could say every other sports journalist ranked them differently from Wheeler. (And everybody has their misses) That's not the criticism. It's that Wheeler particularly has a habit of nonsensically undervaluing a certain type of player.

So show me people that did actually see the value in the “certain type of player” you are referencing to back up the assertion that he is a bad talent evaluator of that “certain type of player”. To make that statement you must have done your homework, I would just like to see it. As someone that follows draft lists and prospect lists very closely my instinct is that MOST evaluators miss the boat with that “certain type of player”. Would be interested to learn if I’m wrong about that and it’s just Wheeler.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

So show me people that did actually see the value in the “certain type of player” you are referencing to back up the assertion that he is a bad talent evaluator of that “certain type of player”. To make that statement you must have done your homework, I would just like to see it. As someone that follows draft lists and prospect lists very closely my instinct is that MOST evaluators miss the boat with that “certain type of player”. Would be interested to learn if I’m wrong about that and it’s just Wheeler.

No.