Scott Wheeler mid season ranking

[ViD]

How would anyone put Levshunov above Silayev?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Zayne Parekh at 6 is f***ing insane. He's not having some unrivaled scoring season. He's having a worse scoring season against the competition he faces than Buium, who is playing against better competition and isn't only an OFD.

What is even the scenario where Parekh at 6 gets you the value you hope from that slot? I guess you could say Erik Karlsson, but that'd be like saying you hope to get Bobby Hull out of Eiserman. The 100.0% outcome of a player's career is not in any way what you should be contemplating for a draft pick.

Is it worth it if you get Tyson Barrie or Tony DeAngelo at 6OA? Maybe. I'm open to that argument, but thats the upside of Zayne Parekh. The downside is you get Ryan Murphy or Ryan Merkley. Someone like Adam Boqvist is probably the middle ground.

This is a niche type of role in the NHL. Because of that, these players are inherently riskier. Seems to be leaving out all the risk of Parekh to rank him 6.

 

[57special]

How would anyone put Levshunov above Silayev?

Bob Mac had Silayev # 2, Levshunov #3. Is it really that big of a stretch to have Levshunov ahead?

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

You couldn't pay me to draft Parekh at 6.

I’m guessing he missed the prospects game. Roberts is an HM…. Greentree owned him…

 

[PatrickMcC]

He's really not a stat watcher. If you consistently read Wheeler's stuff you find that his write-ups, descriptions, and level of detail are far more in-depth than most other draft content, including his co-worker at the Athletic, Pronman.

The issue is that he just over/under values certain things, and his overall conclusion on a player becomes way off.

I'd say he identifies specific skills/attributes very effectively. But his instincts on ranking players are can be very off. Pronman is almost the complete opposite now. His scouting reports speak in complete platitudes and hockey-isms, but somehow he innately has a better feel for the complete evaluation of a prospect.

This is a pretty accurate description of the 2 writers. I find that Corey is often more right than he is wrong with his prospect projections. It’s not like Scott is incapable of evaluating these guys like Corey does but he chooses not to. New wave of scouting thinks that the small/skill types are taking over faster than they actually are and evaluators like Scott are trying to get ahead of the curve and get their coup de Grâce.

Zayne Parekh at 6 is f***ing insane. He's not having some unrivaled scoring season. He's having a worse scoring season against the competition he faces than Buium, who is playing against better competition and isn't only an OFD.

What is even the scenario where Parekh at 6 gets you the value you hope from that slot? I guess you could say Erik Karlsson, but that'd be like saying you hope to get Bobby Hull out of Eiserman. The 100.0% outcome of a player's career is not in any way what you should be contemplating for a draft pick.

Is it worth it if you get Tyson Barrie or Tony DeAngelo at 6OA? Maybe. I'm open to that argument, but thats the upside of Zayne Parekh. The downside is you get Ryan Murphy or Ryan Merkley. Someone like Adam Boqvist is probably the middle ground.

This is a niche type of role in the NHL. Because of that, these players are inherently riskier. Seems to be leaving out all the risk of Parekh to rank him 6.

Bobby Mac had Parekh at 9… not that big of a difference.

 

[LilLeeroy]

How would anyone put Levshunov above Silayev?

Maybe because he has scored more than 3 points in his last 40 games?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Bobby Mac had Parekh at 9… not that big of a difference.

That's not a bad point. It seems like he could very well be a top 10 pick. It just makes absolutely no sense to me, and I'd love anyone to explain to me the scenario where it makes sense.

 

[ViD]

Maybe because he has scored more than 3 points in his last 40 games?

Is this some kind of a joke ? He’s a regular in KHL at 17

 

[bossram]

This is a pretty accurate description of the 2 writers. I find that Corey is often more right than he is wrong with his prospect projections. It’s not like Scott is incapable of evaluating these guys like Corey does but he chooses not to. New wave of scouting thinks that the small/skill types are taking over faster than they actually are and evaluators like Scott are trying to get ahead of the curve and get their coup de Grâce.


Bobby Mac had Parekh at 9… not that big of a difference.

The funny thing is Pronman has done a complete 180 in recent years. Back in his Hockey Prospectus and ESPN days, he was all over smaller/high skilled guys. He completely flipped and now he's the #1 hardo for big boyz.

 

[kyle44]

That's not a bad point. It seems like he could very well be a top 10 pick. It just makes absolutely no sense to me, and I'd love anyone to explain to me the scenario where it makes sense.

Yeah, I think Parekh is getting ranked where he is based on his production. I’ve watched the CHL for 30 years, and while his production is relatively historic, when I watch him I see lots of red flags that could impact his pro transition. I've made a point to watch a lot of Saginaw games lately, and while he’s always on the scoresheet, I just don't see the skillset that would warrant a top-10 selection. Dickinson is a much safer pick IMO.

 

[PatrickMcC]

That's not a bad point. It seems like he could very well be a top 10 pick. It just makes absolutely no sense to me, and I'd love anyone to explain to me the scenario where it makes sense.

I think the rationale behind it is that the teams willing to do this believe that his offense is so elite and above every other smallish offensive D and that they’re willing to live with some of his flaws.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Wheeler's Top 25 drafted prospects from October of 2020:

1. Alexis Lafreniere
2. Quinton Byfield
3. Marco Rossi
4. Cole Perfetti
5. Lucas Raymond
6. Alexander Holtz
7. Tim Stutzle
8. Dylan Cozens
9. Trevor Zegras
10. Cole Caufield
11. Alex Newhook
12. Jamie Drysdale
13. Kirill Kaprizov
14. Bowen Byram
15. Alex Turcotte
16. Anton Lundell
17. Arthur Kaliyev
18. Peyton Krebs
19. Nick Robertson
20. Gabe Vilardi
21. Evan Bouchard
22. Moritz Seider
23. Matt Boldy
24. Victor Soderstrom
25. Nils Lundkvist

Other notable flubs:

32. Ryan Merkley (If you need evidence that Wheeler's a stat watcher. Everybody knew Merkley was a black hole defensively)
45. Seth Jarvis
46. Josh Norris
49. Jake Sanderson

Yes. He ranked Ryan Merkley 10 spots below Seider and 17 spots above Sanderson.

Jake Sanderson 49 lol.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think the rationale behind it is that the teams willing to do this believe that his offense is so elite and above every other smallish offensive D and that they’re willing to live with some of his flaws.

Probably either that or NHL teams believe it’s such a weak draft that this type of player with this risk goes higher as a byproduct.

 

[Just Linda]

Something I've pandered for a while.

Wheeler is super busy with TV commitments and radio hits... does he have an intern who does the lists for him?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

That's not a bad point. It seems like he could very well be a top 10 pick. It just makes absolutely no sense to me, and I'd love anyone to explain to me the scenario where it makes sense.

he's obviously an imperfect player, but if you believe his offensive tools are elite then he is worth a top 10 pick. if you think he can influence games like an ek65 type guy, then he is worth a top 10 pick. guys like mateychuk and drysdale are smallish offensive guys who were picked high because clubs thought their skills were high end. his game isn't for everyone.

parekh's vision and passing and offensive instincts are tantalizing though, giving him huge upside. he isn't ever going to be a scott stevens crunching folks, but his defensive game is better than you'd think from the descriptions of so many. he has a really good stick defensively, good feet to mirror the attacker, and a desire to defend (to get the puck back and go on offense moreso than for the sheer joy of defending, but still). and if his team spends most of the time in offensive zone they tend not to get scored on that much.

not saying their isn't risk with him, but i think it's overstated. i have him 10th at present, 4th among d and just ahead of buium. and i could see him going higher than that.

 

[57special]

he's obviously an imperfect player, but if you believe his offensive tools are elite then he is worth a top 10 pick. if you think he can influence games like an ek65 type guy, then he is worth a top 10 pick. guys like mateychuk and drysdale are smallish offensive guys who were picked high because clubs thought their skills were high end. his game isn't for everyone.

parekh's vision and passing and offensive instincts are tantalizing though, giving him huge upside. he isn't ever going to be a scott stevens crunching folks, but his defensive game is better than you'd think from the descriptions of so many. he has a really good stick defensively, good feet to mirror the attacker, and a desire to defend (to get the puck back and go on offense moreso than for the sheer joy of defending, but still). and if his team spends most of the time in offensive zone they tend not to get scored on that much.

not saying their isn't risk with him, but i think it's overstated. i have him 10th at present, 4th among d and just ahead of buium. and i could see him going higher than that.

It's not like Parekh is tiny, either. He's 6'.

 

[Castle8130]

The reason why there are some scouts heavily in favor of Parekh is because players that have a similar production with his skating can really pay-off. You look at comparables like Makar and Hughes. I myself believe he is most like Evan Bouchard. Both have insane OHL seasons, bit of rovers defensively, and pose some serious questions defensively. Bouchard has a bit more size, Parekh has better skating, but very similar everywhere else. I think Parekh could pay-off big time. You are betting on his offensive talent with a great skater and hope everything works itself out like it did for Makar and hughes

 

[Hollel]

The funny thing is Pronman has done a complete 180 in recent years. Back in his Hockey Prospectus and ESPN days, he was all over smaller/high skilled guys. He completely flipped and now he's the #1 hardo for big boyz.

I’ve noticed this too. But I think the biggest change for Pronman is that he either has way more access to trusty NHL scouting sources, or just willingly aligns with those sources he’s had more closely than before. Just seems more “NHL teams are going to bet on this big D man early, and I’ll agree”.

And yeah his writeups are just ass now. Which is why I also like Wheeler outside of his whacky rankings. It’s important to remember that the main job these people have is informing fans on what’s going on with prospects. Of course rankings are going to be super subjective. I care more about absorbing different qualities of a crop of prospects. And I can learn about those very well through Wheeler. And I can get a good sense of how the 1st RD will shake out through Pronman

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think Parekh is a good skater, but where I think the Makar or Hughes comparisons miss the mark is that they are two of the best skaters in the NHL. Parekh skates closer to Barrie or DeAngelo.

EK too was always an elite skater, although I'm sure some of the injuries haven't helped and his skating has taken some type of step back since his prime. I don't think Parekh skates at the same level.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Pronman is pretty decent imo but his write ups don’t match his grades which drives me nuts. We see the game slightly different but he actually hustles and sees a lot of these guys live which matters. I respect his work even if I don’t always agree with it.

I just dont get the same vibe with Wheeler. Was it Tyler Boucher he claimed to have watched when Boucher wasn’t even at the event? If you compare how Wheeler writes to HP, Brock Otten, or Pronman... I’m not sure I trust the guy is actually watching as much as he portrays. He really over describes players and can’t keep his eval and projection simple. Idk. Maybe I’m wrong.

 

[thrillhous]

Seider/Boldy/Jarvis/Sanderson are all pretty rancid rankings for a list from late 2020.

I honestly didn't follow Jarvis too much, but I remember thinking highly of Boldy at the draft, and Sanderson was a Top 5 pick whose only really eyebrow raising question at the time was "Should they have taken him over Drysdale?" Seider was considered a reach in 2019, but his 19-20 AHL season quickly put people in check, to the point that even Button did a quick 180 on his "Carlo 2.0" comparison.

That's a #1D, (Seider) Top pairing D trending toward #1D, (Sanderson) Top 6 all-situations forward, (Jarvis) and another Top 6 forward (Boldy) all flubbed on in one ranking.



It's not really about having periodic misses. Everybody misses. It's the ongoing theme that he appears to be a stat-watcher and can't evaluate defensive ability.

It would be best if you could post some other prospect lists published fall 2020 and 2021 please so that we can compare. Pointing out some misses on the Wheeler lists really means little without context in terms of what other published opinions were out there.

 

[ijuka]

Pronman is pretty decent imo but his write ups don’t match his grades which drives me nuts. We see the game slightly different but he actually hustles and sees a lot of these guys live which matters. I respect his work even if I don’t always agree with it.

The problem with Pronman's ratings system is that it makes no sense. He can have a guy in top 5 with lower ratings than a guy who's like #150. That's absolutely nonsensical.

 

[HoweFan]

I’m a little surprised that Lucas Fischer wasn’t even an honorable mention.

 

[Vector]

Following Wheeler and Pronman over the past two drafts has been fascinating. Both have their favourite types (Wheeler, for instance, loves small skilled players, regardless of position, even if they have a severe flaw) and have pretty significant blind spots. Wheeler is the better writer and has more consistency. Pronman seems to have the better eye for NHL traits and is far better and understanding what teams are looking for.

I like reading both their stuff even if I think Wheeler isn't actually good at picking out NHL traits. They both know far less than they let on, focus heavily on the next draft, and are usually a season behind a prospects development.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

The problem with Pronman's ratings system is that it makes no sense. He can have a guy in top 5 with lower ratings than a guy who's like #150. That's absolutely nonsensical.

Or he’ll call someone an elite skater and the numerical grade is average. Drives me nuts. I don’t even bother with his grading system.