Confirmed with Link: Schmid and Holtz traded to VGK for Paul Cotter and 2025 3rd rounder

[JimEIV]

Bad picks are going to happen... trying to predict how a 17/18 year old is going to progress is witchcraft...when you hear real scouts talk about a player having a baby face so there should be progression, you know a lot of what they're doing is based on hunches.

You miss, you miss whatever.... what's more troubling to me is when you start to miss regularly and I think we have outside of our very high picks.

I think McLeod, Ty Smith and Holtz were all bad misses in the first round... that's a little too frequent in my opinion.

 

[Nubmer6]

Bad picks are going to happen... trying to predict how a 17/18 year old is going to progress is witchcraft...when you hear real scouts talk about a player having a baby face so there should be progression, you know a lot of what they're doing is based on hunches.

You miss, you miss whatever.... what's more troubling to me is when you start to miss regularly and I think we have outside of our very high picks.

I think McLeod, Ty Smith and Holtz were all bad misses in the first round... that's a little too frequent in my opinion.

Smith fell much further than expected. I'm not sure I can blame us much for that.

McLeod and Holtz felt like a draft for need, passing better players.

When's all said and done, McLeod was a disappointment, but he was just finally coming along, and at least was an actual NHLer. I'm not convinced Holtz is, and I vaguely remember him being ranked lower than where we picked him. At least, in my mind I had him lower, and was pretty disappointed when we nabbed him.

 

[JimEIV]

Smith fell much further than expected. I'm not sure I can blame us much for that.

McLeod and Holtz felt like a draft for need, passing better players.

When's all said and done, McLeod was a disappointment, but he was just finally coming along, and at least was an actual NHLer. I'm not convinced Holtz is, and I vaguely remember him being ranked lower than where we picked him. At least, in my mind I had him lower, and was pretty disappointed when we nabbed him.

My thought is those players had obvious weaknesses and they were taken way too high for those deficiencies.

If you couldn't see the lack of offensive ability, the lack of a shot or creativity from McLeod I'm not sure you should be a scout? If you did, and still used a 11/12 overall on that kind of player based on speed or need then you're just dumb. That guy had 4th liner written all over him while he was still in Mississauga. I don't know how you can justify an #11 turned in #12 overall on that player.

Similarity Smith and Holtz had obvious deficiencies , skating being first and foremost. Again were these things missed or overlooked? I don't know but using a #17 and #7 overall on players with these kind of deficiencies is problematic.

 

[My3Sons]

My thought is those players had obvious weaknesses and they were taken way too high for those deficiencies.

If you couldn't see the lack of offensive ability, the lack of a shot or creativity from McLeod I'm not sure you should be a scout? If you did, and still used a 11/12 overall on that kind of player based on speed or need then you're just dumb. That guy had 4th liner written all over him while he was still in Mississauga. I don't know how you can justify an #11 turned in #12 overall on that player.

Similarly Smith and Holtz had obvious decencies, skating being first and foremost. Again were these things missed or overlooked? I don't know but using a #17 and #7 overall on players with these kind of deficiencies is problematic.

Largely agree on McLeod but that 2016 draft featured a lot of mediocre players or guys that took a very long time to round into legit NHL players. You'd love to have gotten Thompson from that draft but he stunk for quite a while as well. The only real slam dunk pick I see in the first couple of rounds is McAvoy. Even Chychrun has turned out to be meh. I know at the time there was disappointment they didn't pick one of the defenders which seems obvious but the forwards as a group were less than stellar.

 

[Mgd31]

My thought is those players had obvious weaknesses and they were taken way too high for those deficiencies.

If you couldn't see the lack of offensive ability, the lack of a shot or creativity from McLeod I'm not sure you should be a scout? If you did, and still used a 11/12 overall on that kind of player based on speed or need then you're just dumb. That guy had 4th liner written all over him while he was still in Mississauga. I don't know how you can justify an #11 turned in #12 overall on that player.

Similarly Smith and Holtz had obvious decencies, skating being first and foremost. Again were these things missed or overlooked? I don't know but using a #17 and #7 overall on players with these kind of deficiencies is problematic.

I seem to recall in the draft previews that Holtz's IQ was listed as a strength.

But that/his ability to process the game ended up being his worst attributes. Seems a lot of scouts missed that

 

[Nubmer6]

My thought is those players had obvious weaknesses and they were taken way too high for those deficiencies.

If you couldn't see the lack of offensive ability, the lack of a shot or creativity from McLeod I'm not sure you should be a scout? If you did, and still used a 11/12 overall on that kind of player based on speed or need then you're just dumb. That guy had 4th liner written all over him while he was still in Mississauga. I don't know how you can justify an #11 turned in #12 overall on that player.

Similarly Smith and Holtz had obvious decencies, skating being first and foremost. Again were these things missed or overlooked? I don't know but using a #17 and #7 overall on players with these kind of deficiencies is problematic.

You would hope that the player isn't a finished product at 18 years old, although developing a goal scoring touch is pretty rare (amazing how Jack did it). Bing a pure playmaker as a center isn't the end of the world either. It's just that there were much better choices at the time, but we were focused on C and refused to draft D.

As for #17, that's beginning to get into the weeds. Lots of picks that late don't pan out, turn into 4th liners/3rd pair, etc.

 

[Bleedred]

I saw Jiri Patera signed somewhere else yesterday (Canucks? Flames?) so it looks like Schmid is 2nd on their depth chart, barring another acquisition.

Or maybe Lehner is coming back?

 

[Nubmer6]

I saw Jiri Patera signed somewhere else yesterday (Canucks? Flames?) so it looks like Schmid is 2nd on their depth chart, barring another acquisition.

Or maybe Lehner is coming back?

Jiri Pantera! Cowboy from Hell!!!

 

[JimEIV]

You would hope that the player isn't a finished product at 18 years old, although developing a goal scoring touch is pretty rare (amazing how Jack did it). Bing a pure playmaker as a center isn't the end of the world either. It's just that there were much better choices at the time, but we were focused on C and refused to draft D.

As for #17, that's beginning to get into the weeds. Lots of picks that late don't pan out, turn into 4th liners/3rd pair, etc.

I don't disagree but when we look at it in total it starts to look like more of a pattern than a one off bad year.

The mistakes look linked in a weird way...like one attribute that they really liked overshadowed all the other red flags.

In totally we're talking about a #7, #11, and #17 and each player had major flaws. Seems to me they are willing to overlook flaws for one strong attribute.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

I didn't like the pick at the time. Scouts are paid to scout. If they're bad at their jobs, get new ones.

If you're just going to go with the "industry consensus" at every selection, why have scouts at all?

I didn’t like the pick at the time either, i wanted Rossi. Lots of very high paid people, including Fitzgerald, would’ve disagreed with us. That’s not a “bad pick,” that’s just differing opinions.

 

[Nubmer6]

I don't disagree but when we look at it in total it starts to look like more of a pattern than a one off bad year.

The mistakes look linked in a weird way...like one attribute that they really liked overshadowed all the other red flags.

In totally we're talking about a #7, #11, and #17 and each player had major flaws. Seems to me they are willing to overlook flaws for one strong attribute.

The flaw I see is focusing on need more than BPA. I mean, yeah, it's hard to define BPA, but there were clearly better players than McLeod, and arguably Holtz.

I've seen it with both Shero and Fitz. Shero went nuts his final draft picking up defensive defensemen like McCarthy, Vukojevic, and Okhotiuk. Just this draft Fitz left skill on the table focusing on big bodied players. They are/were both prone to over-reactions, and I see it as a serious flaw. I mean, you can lean towards one direction, but just let it blind you to better options.

 

[JimEIV]

I also think in each of those drafts something like this was said in the war room

"Fastest skater in the draft"

"One of the highest IQ Defensemen in the draft

"Best shot in the draft"


And with that, the seeds were sown to make a terrible decision.

Need or not if you are basing your decision on one strong attribute and not measuring the flaws equally, you are bound to make lots of blunders.

These things were actually said about these players.

 

[Bleedred]

Yeah, never mind.

Vegas signed Samsonov.

Schmid number three.

 

[Billdo]

Bad picks are going to happen... trying to predict how a 17/18 year old is going to progress is witchcraft...when you hear real scouts talk about a player having a baby face so there should be progression, you know a lot of what they're doing is based on hunches.

You miss, you miss whatever.... what's more troubling to me is when you start to miss regularly and I think we have outside of our very high picks.

I think McLeod, Ty Smith and Holtz were all bad misses in the first round... that's a little too frequent in my opinion.

McLeod, prior to his off the ice transgressions, actually transformed himself into one of the better 4Cs in the league but yeah, you're not taking him in the top half of the fourth line to be that. It sucks.

 

[bossram]

I didn’t like the pick at the time either, i wanted Rossi. Lots of very high paid people, including Fitzgerald, would’ve disagreed with us. That’s not a “bad pick,” that’s just differing opinions.

I disagree. It was a bad pick. I don't, and never did, like picking players whose only "plus" level ability is shooting. It's the least important skill and won't translate to the NHL unless they bring up other areas in their game.

If you're drafting that kind of player, you have to accept the deficiencies or be willing to work around them, or be sure that the shooting talent is truly elite. Fitz and the scouts got this wrong, didn't manage the player correctly, and should own it.

If you're a "highly paid" person in this area, you should be held to a much higher standard than guys on HFboards looking at grainy junior film. If you're getting it more wrong than HFboards people, that's a bad look.

 

[Hisch13r]

Cotter needs to be a great 4th liner for this to not be dumb. If he continues to be anything like he’s shown so far then he’s just some run of the mill guy and you could’ve signed some random guy for scraps

 

[devilsblood]

Cotter needs to be a great 4th liner for this to not be dumb. If he continues to be anything like he’s shown so far then he’s just some run of the mill guy and you could’ve signed some random guy for scraps

No way we could have signed a big physical guy with good speed who put up 25 points last year and 20 goals over the last 2 years for league minimum.

The reason we were only able to get a player of Cotter's level is because the league didn't value Holtz. People need to accept this.

 

[Nico Hischier]

Cotter will be more than just a 4th liner.

Cotter needs to be a great 4th liner for this to not be dumb. If he continues to be anything like he’s shown so far then he’s just some run of the mill guy and you could’ve signed some random guy for scraps

 

[devilsblood]

Cotter will be more than just a 4th liner.

I agree. And he wasn't one in Vegas. Though, one would hope for more production from a 3rd liner then what he produced in Vegas. Really low shooting % though which probably bounces up. Would like to see more SOG's.

 

[Guttersniped]

I seem to recall in the draft previews that Holtz's IQ was listed as a strength.

But that/his ability to process the game ended up being his worst attributes. Seems a lot of scouts missed that

It’s less his hockey IQ and more his style of play, so I do consider it a drafting mistake.

And also bad luck, since no one ahead of us screwed up. It’s not hard to see why they passed over Rossi, so it was Holtz/Quinn/Perfetti.

From the 2020 Black Book:

<cut>

You have to ask how a player is going to score in the NHL. There’s a lot of limitations to his game just in this section.

He couldn’t score with speed, was a perimeter player and his shot creation was iffy.

You have to be a very exceptional scoring winger to get away with slowing down play and trying to find soft ice. And I mean ridiculously exceptional and he’s not that.

Here’s more, the player he is now is all there, it wasn’t a secret. (Lack of agility, good playmaking, etc)

Zetterlund doesn’t have better Hockey IQ, and he has worse on-ice vision, he just plays a meat and potatoes, north/south game that translates much better to the NHL.

Zetterlund’s development obviously went really well, like a dream really, but his play style didn’t fundamentally change much either.

 

[Nubmer6]

And also bad luck, since no one ahead of us screwed up. It’s not hard to see why they passed over Rossi, so it was Holtz/Quinn/Perfetti.

Man, I REALLY, REALLY wanted Quinn.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Day 3 of waiting on @Killing Joke to provide his realistic return value on these trades….

 

[ninetyeight]

Zetterlund’s development obviously went really well, like a dream really, but his play style didn’t fundamentally change much either.

Zetterlund was also buried in the AHL until his D+5 season. Nobody here was expecting much from him and we really only started getting excited after his ppg season in the AHL. Holtz was never given the same amount of patience and time by the staff nor the fans. Yet he has still overperformed Zetterlund in every stage of their careers so far. Z's last season was already his D+7 season, while Holtz will now start his D+6 D+5. So Holtz has still 2 3 full seasons to catch Z's 0.5ppg production. And yeah I know Z does a lot of other things too and Holtz doesn't, I just think it's incredible how much draft position affects on how people rate players. Same with Zacha, had he been a 4th rounder, people would have been very happy with a solid mid6er like him.

 

[Guttersniped]

Zetterlund was also buried in the AHL until his D+5 season. Nobody here was expecting much from him and we really only started getting excited after his ppg season in the AHL. Holtz was never given the same amount of patience and time by the staff nor the fans. Yet he has still overperformed Zetterlund in every stage of their careers so far. Z's last season was already his D+7 season, while Holtz will now start his D+6. So Holtz has still 2 full seasons to catch Z's 0.5ppg production. And yeah I know Z does a lot of other things too and Holtz doesn't, I just think it's incredible how much draft position affects on how people rate players. Same with Zacha, had he been a 4th rounder, people would have been very happy with a solid mid6er like him.

I guess my point wasn’t clear.

This is from the 2017 Blackbook entry on Zetterlund:


This is spot on and you also see a straightforward development path to a NHL player, he just has to get there.

Holtz is trying to achieve something more difficult, there’s a limited number of pure scoring wingers in the NHL. His game had a bunch of limitations that were visible as a prospect, including the things Fitz bitched about.

As I mentioned, I think Zetterlund actually has a worse hockey IQ and vision than Holtz, but he’s unrelentless puck hound with a style that translates easier to a NHL role.

Panarin takes shit for being a perimeter player who slows the game down, and he’s one of the best players in the world.

It isn’t about dwelling on Holtz either, the hope is the team can improve with judging projectable skills.

 

[ninetyeight]

I get what you meant, I was just trying to make my own point. How nobody ever cares what late round draft picks do in the first few years, but are furiously demanding to get rid of first round picks if they aren't working out in the first two years.