Save percentage over time

[JD1]

There was some discussion in the past few days about goalie save percentages and how the average is now around .900

Interesting discussion about east west play being harder for goalies to track and basically being harder on their bodies which is why we don't see guys starting 60+ anymore

Death of the .900 save percentage: Why stopping the puck is so tough for today’s NHL goalies

Save percentage is on track to finish at a 29-year low. What has changed for the masked men?

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[Tuna99]

Ottawa won’t make the playoffs unless both goalies play way better. They have both been bad this year, cost the team points, and the play of both goalies has kept us stuck in the mud

no line combos, veteran leadership. call ups, bad pinches, face off percentage, power play goals, penalty kill efficiency will matter unless the goalies start acting like reliable goalies

Ottawa is going nowhere if these goalies keep this up. It’s really that simple

 

[Xspyrit]

Interesting, yes it has to be kept in mind by fans when discussing goaltending. Hockey is a sport constantly in movement, things happen, things change and statistics are going to vary

 

[Boud]

To be fair I think Forsberg has done his job. He’s a backup and we need to expect backup goaltending from him. Some bad games early on but generally this season he’s been good enough to come in relief of Ullmark.

The problem is Ullmark is not playing like a starter and we acquired him and paid him to be just that. A starter is supposed to give you a chance to win 95% of the time and he just hasn’t been that guy for us.

Happy with Forsberg so far. He looks a lot better than last year. He looks calmer in net, stops the play, in good position majority of the time.

 

[Norris4Norris]

Forsberg has a .903 save percentage which I think is respectable for a backup.

Ullmark has an .890 save percentage which is a steep drop off from years before and one of the worst in the league.

Stolarz for the leafs has a .927 save percentage.

Ullmark might not be the goaltender we all thought he would be. Still time, but good thing it was only a 2 year contract

 

[KingAlfie11]

Ullmark might not be the goaltender we all thought he would be. Still time, but good thing it was only a 2 year contract

Linus Ullmark has consistently proven himself as a top goaltender in the league, maintaining a save percentage of 900 in every season he's played. Such performance doesn't deteriorate overnight. With his solid track record, there's little reason to worry about his capabilities.

 

[Norris4Norris]

Linus Ullmark has consistently proven himself as a top goaltender in the league, maintaining a save percentage of 900 in every season he's played. Such performance doesn't deteriorate overnight. With his solid track record, there's little reason to worry about his capabilities.

I hope you are right.

Matt Murray was a two time Stanley Cup champion. When he came over I thought it would be a golden era.

 

[OD99]

I hope you are right.

Matt Murray was a two time Stanley Cup champion. When he came over I thought it would be a golden era.

He was broken by the time we acquired him.

It's very odd how both Ullmark and Swayman are struggling this year.

 

[Norris4Norris]

He was broken by the time we acquired him.

It's very odd how both Ullmark and Swayman are struggling this year.

Yes, I thought that when we played Boston. Was it the team defence of Boston from previous years that helped prop up the goalies.

It is not like the sens are playing badly in front of Ullmark. The possession time has been much better this year, which has helped fuel a top 5 offence.

Maybe Ullmark got paid just after his prime, yeesh. Sounds like something an Ottawa GM would do.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Yes, basic stats need league wide averages to be taken into account. We are now at a point where a .900 goalie is a good goalie and an .890 goalie is still an NHLer.

With that said, there are more factors at player. Consistency might be just as important as overall performance. You don't want a goalie with with massive peaks and valleys. Backup or number two goalies also usually get the easier games, so they should have a bit of a boost to their save percentage compared to the starter who is getting the top teams.

It goes both ways. People get hyped about a player being PPG, but PPG players are now what 65 point players used to be in terms of how common they are.

 

[KingAlfie11]

It's very odd how both Ullmark and Swayman are struggling this year.

Yes, and it's a different situation when you're designated as the #1 goaltender. In previous seasons, they operated as a tandem and were both comfortable with that arrangement. It will take some time for each to adjust to the role and responsibilities of being the #1 goaltender.

 

[KingAlfie11]

Maybe Ullmark got paid just after his prime, yeesh. Sounds like something an Ottawa GM would do

It's unreasonable to expect a General Manager to predict a goaltender's future performance; they don't possess a crystal ball for foresight. Linus Ullmark remains an elite goaltender, and the current uproar is simply an overreaction.

 

[PlayersLtd]

I hope you are right.

Matt Murray was a two time Stanley Cup champion. When he came over I thought it would be a golden era.

How could you possibly compare the two? You were the only person thinking Matt Murray was going to usher in a golden era.

As others have pointed out, Linus has shown far more consistency and is entering his prime especially so if you measure up his progression. Even if he maintains a .890 save % all season you shouldn't panic. Goalies' careers are defined by ups and downs, it's the nature of the position. One season does not change the innate talent that the good one's possess. Likewise one season (or stretch) does not make a mediocre goalie a star (Stolarz, Skinner, Montembeault, Silovs, Blackwood, Lyon etc...). Something about voodoo...

Also worth noting, Swayman's numbers are absolutely atrocious.

 

[Tuna99]

It's unreasonable to expect a General Manager to predict a goaltender's future performance; they don't possess a crystal ball for foresight. Linus Ullmark remains an elite goaltender, and the current uproar is simply an overreaction.

He’s not elite. The most wins he’s ever had outside of his Vezina season is 26, that’s not elite by any metric

He has played 10 total playoff games, 7 as a starter. That’s one series. He’s 31

I like the guy but basing his reputation all on 1 season without the full body of work is an overreaction. Ullmark isn’t elite. He’s good, although he’s not playing good right now.

 

[Golden_Jet]

He’s not elite. The most wins he’s ever had outside of his Vezina season is 26, that’s not elite by any metric

He has played 10 total playoff games, 7 as a starter. That’s one series. He’s 31

I like the guy but basing his reputation all on 1 season without the full body of work is an overreaction. Ullmark isn’t elite. He’s good, although he’s not playing good right now.

How can you say he’s not elite, when they show during games over the last 2 cumulative seasons he’s first in GAA and save percentage.

 

[PlayersLtd]

His career save % is better than Vasilevksy, Bobrovsky, Demko, Oettinger, Saros, Markstrom, Binnington, Thompson, Swayman and just about everyone else in his cohort other than Shesterkin and Sorokin.

That's pretty elite.

 

[Micklebot]

He’s not elite. The most wins he’s ever had outside of his Vezina season is 26, that’s not elite by any metric

Uh, that's just one metric, by any metric would suggest evaluating him on more than just wins, which is primarily a team metric

He has played 10 total playoff games, 7 as a starter. That’s one series. He’s 31

Played for a basement team most of his career, split duties with another top end goalie the for the only decent team he played for, so not entirely surprising.

I like the guy but basing his reputation all on 1 season without the full body of work is an overreaction. Ullmark isn’t elite. He’s good, although he’s not playing good right now.

His reputation is based on his metrics over the last 5+ seasons, not 1 season, he's got a top 5 sv% since becoming a regular in the NHL back in 2018, and the best sv% since joining the Bruins in 2021.

It's certainly valid to ask if he can handle a heavier workload, but this idea that his reputation is built off just the one season is fiction.

 

[bicboi64]

Forsberg is doing his job as a back up, Ullmark needs to step it up because he's been costing us games this season.

 

[Norris4Norris]

How could you possibly compare the two? You were the only person thinking Matt Murray was going to usher in a golden era.

As others have pointed out, Linus has shown far more consistency and is entering his prime especially so if you measure up his progression. Even if he maintains a .890 save % all season you shouldn't panic. Goalies' careers are defined by ups and downs, it's the nature of the position. One season does not change the innate talent that the good one's possess. Likewise one season (or stretch) does not make a mediocre goalie a star (Stolarz, Skinner, Montembeault, Silovs, Blackwood, Lyon etc...). Something about voodoo...

Also worth noting, Swayman's numbers are absolutely atrocious.

I wasn't the only one who thought Matt Murray was going to play winning hockey.

"Even if he maintains a .890 save % all season you shouldn't panic" What are you talking about?

Ullmark has had a career of well above .900 goaltending, including winning a Vezina, and I shouldn't panic about a season of .890 goaltending? He is getting paid 8 million a year for the next 4 years.

Actually one great season for a mediocre goalie does make that goalie a star. If Stolarz keeps up his play he will be an all-star.

Swayman's numbers being bad has nothing to do with Ullmark's numbers being bad. Unless you are arguing that both goaltenders were uplifted by the defensive play of the bruins from previous years. In that case both goaltenders are now showing their true colours and were never as good as they appeared to be be.

It's not voodoo my man, it's just logic.

 

[bicboi64]

If Ullmark maintains a .890 save percentage it will be absolutely awful.

Like the dude needs to be above .905 to so he doesn't have his worst ever season.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

The difference is Murray's stats had already dived for a season prior to coming to Ottawa and the injuries had been known and alluded to as part of the issue with where his game was at. The cracks were there already.

If Ullmark doesn't get it together, it would be a whole new thing that was basically unpredictable and bucks his whole career to this point.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I wasn't the only one who thought Matt Murray was going to play winning hockey.

"Even if he maintains a .890 save % all season you shouldn't panic" What are you talking about?

Ullmark has had a career of well above .900 goaltending, including winning a Vezina, and I shouldn't panic about a season of .890 goaltending? He is getting paid 8 million a year for the next 4 years.

Actually one great season for a mediocre goalie does make that goalie a star. If Stolarz keeps up his play he will be an all-star.

Swayman's numbers being bad has nothing to do with Ullmark's numbers being bad. Unless you are arguing that both goaltenders were uplifted by the defensive play of the bruins from previous years. In that case both goaltenders are now showing their true colours and were never as good as they appeared to be be.

It's not voodoo my man, it's just logic.

No just ask the Pens, they were happy to see him go, bad signing and got too much money.

 

[Norris4Norris]

It's unreasonable to expect a General Manager to predict a goaltender's future performance; they don't possess a crystal ball for foresight. Linus Ullmark remains an elite goaltender, and the current uproar is simply an overreaction.

I get what you are saying. Ullmark's performance during his tenure in Boston would suggest to any GM that he will continue to be great and should be signed.

Predicting the future performance of any player on the team, not just the goalie, is literally the definition of GM. But, I agree, Ullmark showed no cause for concern with respect to his underlying numbers.

Whether or not Ullmark remains an elite goaltender has yet to be seen and is entirely up to him. An .890 in mid-November is rubbish and Ullmark would be the first to call himself out on it.

 

[Norris4Norris]

No just ask the Pens, they were happy to see him go, bad signing and got too much money.

Right, hindsight is 20-20. The Pens were right to trade him, but Ottawa signed him because he was very young and had already won 2 Stanley cups.

The thinking was that Murray would overcome any problems he had developed and return to form as he matured. It didn't happen, but even Toronto gave us a third and a seventh round pick in hopes of a return to form (we retained 25% salary for two years).

 

[Micklebot]

Since becoming a regular Ullmark has typically been about 6-10 % points above league average in his sv %, that's the range I would set expectations off of.

So, with this years league average sv% being .901 currently, we should set expectations for him in around .907 to .911.

He's clearly underperforming right now, at .011 below league average with a .890 sv%, but I expect that will rebound.