Congrats, Sabres fans! Time for your team to become good so the rest of us can hate you.
SABRES WIN LOTTERY!!!! Will pick #1 overall in the 2018 Draft
- Thread starter 26CornerBlitz
- Start date
I wonder is Andrew Peters will say something stupid tomorrow like Dahlin is not a done deal.
You're making this much harder than it really is. The results are given to us in reverse order, but the drawing for #1 happened first. Nothing taints the first draw, and the first draw odds cemented each team's chance at winning. Once 15-4 was announced, all we can go on from there is knowing how many combos are left, and how many of those combos belong to the three teams left. It's simple math from there, and everything else is a misunderstanding or an over-complication.
After the 15-4 was announced, each of Buf, Mon, and Car DID in fact have their chances increase at winning #1. Buf went from 185/1000 to 185/310. Mon went from 95/1000 to 95/310. Car went from 30/1000 to 30/310. Those odds didn't change at the drawing though, they only changed in retrospect given how the NHL presented the results. With what we had to work with before the final results, the 59.7% crowd is right, and it's not actually that hard to figure out.
TSN Hockey Mock Draft: Post-Lottery Edition
By Craig Button
The 2018 NHL Draft Lottery is in the books with the Buffalo Sabres winning the first-overall selection and taking Rasmus Dahlin.
Buffalo is looking at an elite franchise defenceman. He's to blueliners as what Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews are to centremen and what they were and are to their respective franchises.
A huge jump up to the second-overall selection should see the Carolina Hurricanes land winger Andrei Svechnikov. The Barrie Colts winger has a blend of skill, sense, power and drive that reminds me in style of Marian Hossa. Svechnikov is a factor in all areas of the game and will be in the NHL next season.
The Montreal Canadiens need offence and the third pick should be Filip Zadina of the Halifax Mooseheads. Zadina is an elite scoring winger who is dangerous from the circles down and competes to score inside the dots.
By Craig Button
The 2018 NHL Draft Lottery is in the books with the Buffalo Sabres winning the first-overall selection and taking Rasmus Dahlin.
Buffalo is looking at an elite franchise defenceman. He's to blueliners as what Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews are to centremen and what they were and are to their respective franchises.
A huge jump up to the second-overall selection should see the Carolina Hurricanes land winger Andrei Svechnikov. The Barrie Colts winger has a blend of skill, sense, power and drive that reminds me in style of Marian Hossa. Svechnikov is a factor in all areas of the game and will be in the NHL next season.
The Montreal Canadiens need offence and the third pick should be Filip Zadina of the Halifax Mooseheads. Zadina is an elite scoring winger who is dangerous from the circles down and competes to score inside the dots.
SECRET SQUIRREL
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Gordian Knot
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- Jul 3, 2016
- 1,217
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Really glad it was Buffalo this time! Congratulations!
Just one question: was Eichel sick or something because Botterill was on the stage?
Just one question: was Eichel sick or something because Botterill was on the stage?
It seems likely he will bring up someone like Tkachuk or some ridiculous trade.
Rasmus CacOlainen
The end of the Tank
IMO they are probably happier than we are. And we are quite very happy. Svech is elite and they had really low odds at hitting top2.
Ryan Michaels
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- Mar 21, 2017
- 4,275
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Congrats Buffalo. As a Pens fan I can assure you having two elite superstars is a blast to watch year after year. Enjoy Eichel and Dahleeeeen.
Your fanbase deserves this. Now bring back the goat head jersey so the boys look sharp out on the ice.
Your fanbase deserves this. Now bring back the goat head jersey so the boys look sharp out on the ice.
misterchainsaw
Preparing PHASE TWO!
No. This is wrong. You cannot ignore that the other teams all had winning combinations when #1 was drawn. You cannot simply take out their combinations as if they were not there. I can prove that this method is wrong by using your method in a simplified situation.
Again, consider the case where team A has an 86% chance to win the top pick, and every other team has 1%. In this case, because every other team's chances are the same, we can say that the chances of team A winning the #1 pick is equal to the probability of them being in the top 3 multiplied by the chance of them winning the #1 pick given that they are in the top 3.
The chance of team A staying in the top 3 in this case is, as posted earlier in the thread, equal to (1 - (.14 * (1-[.86/.99]) * (1-[.86/.98])). This equals 99.775%. Because this number is so high, the probability of winning given that they are in the top 3 must be very close to their true winning percentage. However, your method gives us 86% / 88% = 97.72% to win the top pick once they are in the final 3. That percentage is far too high. If that was really their %chance to win given they were in the top 3, their % chance to win would have originally been 99.775% * 97.72% = 97.50%, since another way to state the overall probability is P(#1) = P(chance of top 3) * P(#1 seed given that they are in the top 3). This is a contradiction, since we already stated their chance to win the top pick is 86%. The numbers simply don't work, so the method must be incorrect.
Using the method explained by tripleX and I earlier, however, the numbers work. You get a probability of 86.194% to win the first pick given that team A is in the top 3. 99.775% * 86.194% = 86% (within rounding error - using these rounded values gives you 86.0000635%).
The method of simply "taking out" all of the balls that were there from teams 4-15 because they did not win is simply incorrect. It's a mistake I originally made when thinking about the problem as well, but it is a mistake. The odds of Buffalo winning the first pick were never 60%. You have to take into account that Buffalo's chances to be in the top 3 were much higher than Carolina's in the first place, raising Carolina's odds relative to Buffalo's once it became known that they had both hit their combinations somewhere within the first three draws.
Your method correctly calculates the odds if BUF, CAR, and MON were the only three teams with live combinations at the time of picking the first pick (at scaled odds) but that's not the case. We only know those were the 3 teams that won because of information gathered after the 1st pick was conducted. The fact that there were 15 teams with live combinations when the draw was conducted significantly changes the math.
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Rasmus CacOlainen
The end of the Tank
Id rather have Dahlin for 10+ years than Tlachuk and one legged Karlsson at 10 mil.
DazedandConfused
thanks tips
Walter Sobchak
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- Dec 30, 2015
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Congratulations.
Buffalo is such a great sports town, I look forward to seeing Dahlin develop and Buffalo's young core carrying them back into contention.
Buffalo is such a great sports town, I look forward to seeing Dahlin develop and Buffalo's young core carrying them back into contention.
Congrats guys, I keep trying to convince myself that the Habs deserved to win this lottery more than you guys but I can't. Hope this is a turning point for your franchise.
AustonsNostrils
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- Apr 5, 2016
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Be careful what you wish for son.
Prepare for a lot of this in the not too distant future.
AustonsNostrils
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- Apr 5, 2016
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There is still a lot of remodeling work to do, the culture part probably fixes itself with more winning but we can't be sure of that, I think Botterill is smart that way coming from a sports psychology upbringing. If there are players here who aren't really team players he'll get rid of them.
We need some toughness/grit, none of these Rochester forward prospects have much of it, Bailey could make himself a 10 year NHL career if he'd just develop a little nasty streak but it doesn't seem like it's in his makeup. Fasching does, and I'm not down on him, I only got to watch a handful of Amerks games but I liked him, he's aware he needs to get faster, the Sabres need to find him the skating coach who can improve his speed. It's doable, I wish the Sabres would spend the Pegula bucks to hire full time one of the best skating coaches out there. It seems the entire organization is very high on Sean Malone, I think and hope they are planning to give him a shot at centering the 4th line, he's not a kid, he's 24.
The biggest holes are on the wing, all we really have is Reinhart and Okposo. I'll throw Wilson and Rodrigues in too, both can play up and down the lineup. I would promote Nylander to the NHL for more than one reason - first he again looked better in the NHL than he did in the AHL, he did not look out of place playing in the NHL. Rigid thinkers like Hamilton get all caught up in hockey's conventional wisdom, that Nylander has to earn his place in the NHL by producing in the AHL, again I'll point to Adrian Kempe's development or lack thereof in the AHL. By promoting Nylander one of two things happens, one he's actually pretty good and he scores a fair bit, that is a good thing and it also pumps up his trade value. And if he fails, just cut bait, write him off and trade him for a decent 3rd line NHLer, some team will figure he's worth the risk, that a new start may be what he needs.
We need some toughness/grit, none of these Rochester forward prospects have much of it, Bailey could make himself a 10 year NHL career if he'd just develop a little nasty streak but it doesn't seem like it's in his makeup. Fasching does, and I'm not down on him, I only got to watch a handful of Amerks games but I liked him, he's aware he needs to get faster, the Sabres need to find him the skating coach who can improve his speed. It's doable, I wish the Sabres would spend the Pegula bucks to hire full time one of the best skating coaches out there. It seems the entire organization is very high on Sean Malone, I think and hope they are planning to give him a shot at centering the 4th line, he's not a kid, he's 24.
The biggest holes are on the wing, all we really have is Reinhart and Okposo. I'll throw Wilson and Rodrigues in too, both can play up and down the lineup. I would promote Nylander to the NHL for more than one reason - first he again looked better in the NHL than he did in the AHL, he did not look out of place playing in the NHL. Rigid thinkers like Hamilton get all caught up in hockey's conventional wisdom, that Nylander has to earn his place in the NHL by producing in the AHL, again I'll point to Adrian Kempe's development or lack thereof in the AHL. By promoting Nylander one of two things happens, one he's actually pretty good and he scores a fair bit, that is a good thing and it also pumps up his trade value. And if he fails, just cut bait, write him off and trade him for a decent 3rd line NHLer, some team will figure he's worth the risk, that a new start may be what he needs.
Inside what happened in the 2018 NHL Draft Lottery room - Sportsnet.ca
The first three numbers drawn for the first overall pick were 1, 4, 14, in that specific order. After those three numbers were called, Buffalo, Arizona, Vancouver and Chicago each had two number combinations remaining that could’ve seen them win the top selection, while Ottawa had three potential winning combos. No. 6 was called and that meant it was the Sabres that became the lucky team with the opportunity to draft consensus top prospect Rasmus Dahlin, a player who said he enjoys watching Senators captain Erik Karlsson above all others.
More food for thought for the number crunchers. It all boiled down to a 2 in 11 chance of winning the lottery prior to the last ball being drawn. Chicago, brutal, thank f*** they didn't win.
The first three numbers drawn for the first overall pick were 1, 4, 14, in that specific order. After those three numbers were called, Buffalo, Arizona, Vancouver and Chicago each had two number combinations remaining that could’ve seen them win the top selection, while Ottawa had three potential winning combos. No. 6 was called and that meant it was the Sabres that became the lucky team with the opportunity to draft consensus top prospect Rasmus Dahlin, a player who said he enjoys watching Senators captain Erik Karlsson above all others.
More food for thought for the number crunchers. It all boiled down to a 2 in 11 chance of winning the lottery prior to the last ball being drawn. Chicago, brutal, thank f*** they didn't win.
MayDay
Registered User
Oh god, could you imagine if Chicago had won? After the decade of success they just had?
That would have been the most brutal outcome overall.
Ace
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- Oct 29, 2015
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This article should kill any doubts about the lottery not being rigged for everyone everywhere forever.
They can’t even think to stagger the start times of the only afternoon playoff games on a Saturday by a half hour...but they’re smart enough to rig a four number combination in front of people.
I do not believe so.
- Mar 10, 2010
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Jets Fan dropping by to say congratulations. That is pretty pretty massive for you. Me thinks the Leafs Sabers rivalry will be in full effect now. This is exactly what the Sabers needed.
