Confirmed with Link: Sabres acquire 20th pick in the 2026 draft from SJS for Kesselring + 27

[Chainshot]

You had to take whatever offer you got. Kess couldn’t get in the top 4 here, and he wouldn’t play the bottom pair role. But he’ll be a top 4 in San Jose and probably put up 40 points…if he stays healthy. It’s an extremely low cost bet for SJ to make.

FWIW, The more advanced models have the difference between 27 and 20 Being the equivalent of a late 3rd.

I know last year there was a move from 23OA to 21OA that cost 67OA. Yet there was also a move from 31OA up to 24OA that cost 59OA and a 34OA with 62OA (and a 2027 pick) to get up to 29OA. Going on those, was figuring something around last third of the 2nd round.

 

[Jim Bob]

I know last year there was a move from 23OA to 21OA that cost 67OA. Yet there was also a move from 31OA up to 24OA that cost 59OA and a 34OA with 62OA (and a 2027 pick) to get up to 29OA. Going on those, was figuring something around last third of the 2nd round.

I think there is a gap between historical data of trades that actually happened and then advanced stats about what each pick is worth.

That is probably where the gap is as the historical cost to trade up has been more than what the advanced stats say about the value of the picks involved.

 

[truthbluth]

I know last year there was a move from 23OA to 21OA that cost 67OA. Yet there was also a move from 31OA up to 24OA that cost 59OA and a 34OA with 62OA (and a 2027 pick) to get up to 29OA. Going on those, was figuring something around last third of the 2nd round.

There’s no one true source, and I guess the value is whatever the market is, rather expected career WAR or anything like that. Everything outside the top 10 in the NHL is a straight up roll of the dice anyway. My pref would have been to recoup the 2nd, to have more lotto tickets, but I also do like that a couple of guys I don’t expect to be there at 27 could be there at 20 (I’m looking at you Morozov, Command and Dagenais).

 

[Chainshot]

I think there is a gap between historical data of trades that actually happened and then advanced stats about what each pick is worth.

That is probably where the gap is as the historical cost to trade up has been more than what the advanced stats say about the value of the picks involved.

For sure there seems to be a disconnect there. It also circles back around to what teams make these moves and when - it's not this far out but instead during the final run up to the selection when there is a very specific player they want still available. Two years ago it was Montreal with Hage giving up 26, 57, and 128 to get to 21OA.

 

[Chainshot]

There’s no one true source, and I guess the value is whatever the market is, rather expected career WAR or anything like that. Everything outside the top 10 in the NHL is a straight up roll of the dice anyway. My pref would have been to recoup the 2nd, to have more lotto tickets, but I also do like that a couple of guys I don’t expect to be there at 27 could be there at 20 (I’m looking at you Morozov, Command and Dagenais).

I like the idea of more kicks at the can in a flat third or fourth tier as well. But I also have to give the Sabres scouting staff a solid nod for their work above 40ish OA in the Forton era. They've had one seeming dud in there in Leinonen in 13 picks (I think Strbak at 45OA is still solidly in the mix as a prospect, same with Kleber at 42, Wahlberg at 39).

 

[Jim Bob]

Kesselring trade

I loved the Michael Kesselring pickup by the San Jose Sharks on Wednesday. It cost the Sharks seven spots in the bottom third of the opening round of the draft. That’s not nothing. For sure, the Buffalo Sabres see value in having moved up those seven spots from 27 to 20. They likely get access to a player there that would not have dropped to 27. But for a 26-year-old, right-shot D who is 6-foot-5? That’s the kind of move you look back on in six months, when Kesselring might be thriving on the Sharks’ blue line, and wonder why more teams weren’t in on that.

Per league sources, Kesselring asked for a change of scenery out of Buffalo after a tough year battling knee and ankle injuries and never moving up the lineup. He appeared in only one playoff game. Which is why I get the move from Buffalo’s perspective, as well — especially when one considers that Kesselring is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. He could have gotten a one-year deal in arbitration and bridged himself to UFA next year, in which case Buffalo would no longer have had a tradeable asset.

So the Sabres felt they had to act now.

 

[Der Jaeger]

If he asked out, then that certainly changes things a bit.

 

[Jim Bob]

If he asked out, then that certainly changes things a bit.

Given his Diggs-esque social media posts and his vocal unhappiness with his role, it is completely believable that he asked out in his end of year meeting with Lindy & Jarmo.

 

[Chainshot]

If he asked out, then that certainly changes things a bit.

Eh, PHam mentioned how Kesselring expressed dissatisfaction at not being in the top 4 in his afternoon radio hit on GR yesterday (and previously, but I don't have that one cataloged... memory full ). They tried it, it didn't work out, moving on.

 

[Chainshot]

Rather small potatoes, but I'd feel really good about this deal if we could have upgraded a 5th to a 3rd in addition to the first round upgrade since our pick cache is so weak this year.

As it stands, I'm still ok with the deal. Kess was found money after the year Doan had. And had a rapidly approaching contractual pinch point. Transfer some value into the future via the improved pick and K.I.M. as Tribe said.

Another way of looking at it: we'd have been picking 20th anyway with Peterka and without Doan

I have that in the back of my head always too - can they squeeze an extra late pick out of someone? I guess it was exposure to too much Sam Pollock as a youngster, with him almost always getting additional picks in every trade. With them having been at 27 previously, I certainly had thoughts of them trying the Canes method of trading back in smaller steps to get more picks in the upper half of the draft. *shrug* More of a nice to have than a necessity but I hear ya'.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

NHL rumblings: Checking in on the market for scorers, plus latest on Bobrovsky, Cassidy, more

Also: Shea likely heading to market, Greer could return, Brunette back with the Predators and a Team Canada GM update.

www.nytimes.com

Kesselring trade
I loved the Michael Kesselring pickup by the San Jose Sharks on Wednesday. It cost the Sharks seven spots in the bottom third of the opening round of the draft. That’s not nothing. For sure, the Buffalo Sabres see value in having moved up those seven spots from 27 to 20. They likely get access to a player there that would not have dropped to 27. But for a 26-year-old, right-shot D who is 6-foot-5? That’s the kind of move you look back on in six months, when Kesselring might be thriving on the Sharks’ blue line, and wonder why more teams weren’t in on that.

Per league sources, Kesselring asked for a change of scenery out of Buffalo after a tough year battling knee and ankle injuries and never moving up the lineup. He appeared in only one playoff game. Which is why I get the move from Buffalo’s perspective, as well — especially when one considers that Kesselring is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. He could have gotten a one-year deal in arbitration and bridged himself to UFA next year, in which case Buffalo would no longer have had a tradeable asset.

So the Sabres felt they had to act now.

 

[Browne88]

Having not watched Kesselring before he got here I was excited about the upside based on what I read and heard. He had flashes when he was healthy and injuries hurt his play I'm sure.

With that said, he was looking towards the heavens a lot after missing the net, goalies making relatively easy saves, etc. Combined with the cryptic posts and some of the reports about him being unhappy, it really seems like he's got a higher opinion of what he is as a player than he's shown. In fact, what he showed this year is he's a borderline top six guy.

One year from UFA this is his value unfortunately. Let's say Byram is definitely being moved this offseason. Who looks at his last year and thinks that's the guy to fill a top 4 role? Absolutely not me...

 

[Beerz]

You had to take whatever offer you got. Kess couldn’t get in the top 4 here, and he wouldn’t play the bottom pair role. But he’ll be a top 4 in San Jose and probably put up 40 points…if he stays healthy. It’s an extremely low cost bet for SJ to make.

FWIW, The more advanced models have the difference between 27 and 20 Being the equivalent of a late 3rd.

I can't see anyone moving from 20th to 27th for a 3rd.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I can't see anyone moving from 20th to 27th for a 3rd.

Nope. That's an NFL trade

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Having not watched Kesselring before he got here I was excited about the upside based on what I read and heard. He had flashes when he was healthy and injuries hurt his play I'm sure.

With that said, he was looking towards the heavens a lot after missing the net, goalies making relatively easy saves, etc. Combined with the cryptic posts and some of the reports about him being unhappy, it really seems like he's got a higher opinion of what he is as a player than he's shown. In fact, what he showed this year is he's a borderline top six guy.

One year from UFA this is his value unfortunately. Let's say Byram is definitely being moved this offseason. Who looks at his last year and thinks that's the guy to fill a top 4 role? Absolutely not me...

I want to know who the crazy g/f was that made him want to leave!

 

[EichHart]

Not a fan. So far really dont like anything Jarmo has done besides Carrick.

 

[SharkInABoloTie]

To me, this move screams "I took the first offer and put no thought into any following effects"

 

[5 Minute Major]

Thought of.

He wasn't. And has never been one.

What were you saying about Samuelsson the two years prior to this past one? You have no idea what Kesselring’s future holds.

 

[Beerz]

What were you saying about Samuelsson the two years prior to this past one? You have no idea what Kesselring’s future holds.

I was big Sammy supporter even in his dark years.

You're right I have no idea what his future is..but Samuelsson had pedigree ever since his draft year.

Only thing people have said about Kesselring since his draft year is "right D" "6'5" and can skate.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I'm doing my best to reserve judgement on this trade until I see what comes of it. Do they pick at 20, or do they move it for roster help? That will determine a lot. Secondarily, a question as to whether they spend to the Cap or not.

 

[5 Minute Major]

I was big Sammy supporter even in his dark years.

You're right I have no idea what his future is..but Samuelsson had pedigree ever since his draft year.

Only thing people have said about Kesselring since his draft year is "right D" "6'5" and can skate.

Kesselring had some of the best analytics in the league two seasons ago.

 

[Beerz]

Kesselring had some of the best analytics in the league two seasons ago.

As mostly a 3rd pair guy.

You obviously have a higher opinion of him than me. I didn't like the Peterka trade when it happened. I don't think he has the brains to handle top 4.

 

[5 Minute Major]

As mostly a 3rd pair guy.

You obviously have a higher opinion of him than me. I didn't like the Peterka trade when it happened. I don't think he has the brains to handle top 4.

I guess we’ll see. He also averaged over 17 minutes of ice time in 24-25.

 

[HaNotsri]

I'm doing my best to reserve judgement on this trade until I see what comes of it. Do they pick at 20, or do they move it for roster help? That will determine a lot. Secondarily, a question as to whether they spend to the Cap or not.

If it's Forton's decision I think he deserves the benefit of doubt. Then it's also an ok move by Jarmo listening to the scouts.

 

[LiseL]

Anyone upset over Kesselring has to do it while ignoring one kind of fact or another.

“He could have turned it around!” …. And walked in free agency if he did since the best case realistic scenario was singing his QO to take him to UFA.

“It’s because we didn’t play him.” … He couldn’t beat out anyone for a spot. When Lindy literally tried gifting him one in the playoffs….he lasted four bad minutes.

“He should have had more value” …. What value should the guy beat out by an undrafted rookie, Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn have, exactly? People are quick to tell you how much they hate a couple of those players and refuse to acknowledge he was BEHIND them for a reason.

“I wish we wouldn’t have given up those medium and lower level assets for other guys if they’re all going to be gone now” …. Blame Kesselring for being unplayable. If he could have managed to be their sixth best option they wouldn’t have had to. He couldn’t.

“We could have signed him cheap and rehabbed him” …. Why in the world would he do that? He earned his way to Lindy’s doghouse and can be a UFA in a year. Being trapped here…guy would never have a shot at signing a decent contract in the league. Zero chance he was signing here this offseason to this mythical team friendly deal. What does team friendly for your #7 D before you even make off-season additions look like anyway? Because he isn’t playing above Timmins or Metsa at this point.

I get it. You wanted Kesselring to work and be an answer. We’ve known since pretty much the moment he took the ice that he wasn’t. That’s a lot of months to just ignore the truth and embrace the fantasy.

He was Jacob Bryson here. Finally a GM who doesn’t need to commit to that for the better part of a goddamned decade.

Wasn't he initially acquired to play in the top 4 with Power but Sammy turned it around and Kesselring suffered a high-ankle sprain which can take up to a year to fully heal? Was his bad play due to the injury, being on the 3rd pairing or super rusty and never finding his groove? I guess we'll find out soon as I expect he will be in the top 4 in SJ and his injury should be fully healed. Hopefully Byram extends so they don't have to try to find a top 4 replacement.