Ryan Johansen Saga III

[IHeartZherdev*]

Of course, with his newly muscular, buff, ripped body he will look good doing it! We can't lose focus of how hard he's worked all summer and how good he looks now. LOL

True, people on her keep referring to him has having a low work ethic and are concerned about potential regression so it's good to know he has been training hard and packing on the muscle.

 

[Crede777]

Nathan Horton's contract is more "me me me' than Joey's.

Nathan who?

Although I must say, it's a bit more warranted because of his track record and playoff experience.

 

[CentreKeeper12]

Nathan who?

Although I must say, it's a bit more warranted because of his track record and playoff experience.

don't forget Horton was a UFA and you normally overpay for UFAs who aren't your own

 

[EDM]

Zherdev, how about if you put away your gas bag and respond to the factually arguments set forth in Pete's post. YOU WON'T BECAUSE YOU CAN'T. You have never offered anything other than your own insufferable, layman's opinions. And that is because you have no facts upon which to base anything other than your "belief" about how godlike RyJo is. $3-4 million is not my view of his worth. It is the view of every professional who has evaluated Ryan against the standards of bridge contracts under the CBA. You dispute that? Well, let me borrow a page from your book: PROVE IT. And with prove it with reference to a specific expert who has analyzed the situation and concluded Joey should be getting $6 million on a bridge contract. If you can't do that, stick a pin in your now ego and let the gas out.

 

[CentreKeeper12]

Zherdev, how about if you put away your gas bag and respond to the factually arguments set forth in Pete's post. YOU WON'T BECAUSE YOU CAN'T. You have never offered anything other than your own insufferable, layman's opinions. And that is because you have no facts upon which to base anything other than your "belief" about how godlike RyJo is. $3-4 million is not my view of his worth. It is the view of every professional who has evaluated Ryan against the standards of bridge contracts under the CBA. You dispute that? Well, let me borrow a page from your book: PROVE IT. And with prove it with reference to a specific expert who has analyzed the situation and concluded Joey should be getting $6 million on a bridge contract. If you can't do that, stick a pin in your now ego and let the gas out.

Love this

 

[fox2usp]

Zherdev, how about if you put away your gas bag and respond to the factually arguments set forth in Pete's post. YOU WON'T BECAUSE YOU CAN'T. You have never offered anything other than your own insufferable, layman's opinions. And that is because you have no facts upon which to base anything other than your "belief" about how godlike RyJo is. $3-4 million is not my view of his worth. It is the view of every professional who has evaluated Ryan against the standards of bridge contracts under the CBA. You dispute that? Well, let me borrow a page from your book: PROVE IT. And with prove it with reference to a specific expert who has analyzed the situation and concluded Joey should be getting $6 million on a bridge contract. If you can't do that, stick a pin in your now ego and let the gas out.

Boom!

 

[EpicDegree]

The Seguin and Skinner comps are very useful. I've used the Skinner deal (6 years $34.4 million) as my primary comp.

Why the CBJ management were so stubborn for so long with their $3m/$3.5 bridge deal is a mystery to me. It seems so obvious that the Skinner deal is close to a realistic benchmark for Johansen.

Had team "prove it, earn it, show me" moved toward the Skinner range months ago, this deal would be long done. The negotiating process would have followed a normal give and take process had the starting point been reasonable. The silly and unrealistic low ball bridge offer which the Jackets wouldn't move off of for months is why Johansen is in Vancouver right now.

Being stuck on stupid at a $3 million bridge deal for over 3 months is unfathomable when one looks at the realities of the market and of Johansen and of the Jackets cap room. If the season opens with Johansen on the shelf, it's the duo sitting above section 216 who are responsible, not the agent or the player.

The problem with this viewpoint, if I am understanding you properly, is that you are looking at one factor (money) of a comparable contract without taking into account the others (mainly term). I agree that Skinner is a good comparable player, but you can't just say that means Joey is worth $5m and some change per year on a 2 year contract. On a 6 year deal? Yea, and what CBJ offered on a longer term isn't too far off that if I recall. But based on the facts that many have laid out here and all over the Internet, the CBA doesn't work that way. Would Skinner have gotten $5m+ on a two year deal? Based on the facts given here, unlikely. So, again assuming I am understanding what you are saying, JD/JK should throw out the CBA and past comparable contracts?

 

[KeithBWhittington]

Zherdev, how about if you put away your gas bag and respond to the factually arguments set forth in Pete's post. YOU WON'T BECAUSE YOU CAN'T. You have never offered anything other than your own insufferable, layman's opinions. And that is because you have no facts upon which to base anything other than your "belief" about how godlike RyJo is. $3-4 million is not my view of his worth. It is the view of every professional who has evaluated Ryan against the standards of bridge contracts under the CBA. You dispute that? Well, let me borrow a page from your book: PROVE IT. And with prove it with reference to a specific expert who has analyzed the situation and concluded Joey should be getting $6 million on a bridge contract. If you can't do that, stick a pin in your now ego and let the gas out.

.... Also, Kurt Overhardt is NOT a "specific expert who has analyzed the situation and concluded that Joey should be getting 6 million on a bridge contract."

 

[IHeartZherdev*]

Per Larry Brooks:

"A well-placed source, meanwhile, told Slap Shots that Overhardt submitted a revised two-year proposal at less than $5 million per to Columbus on Thursday. But with Davidson publicly adamant the team would not move off its two-year offer of $3 million per, the team’s ability to compromise and negotiate is in itself compromised."

http://nypost.com/2014/09/20/oilers-pact-isnt-too-slick/

 

[IHeartZherdev*]

Zherdev, how about if you put away your gas bag and respond to the factually arguments set forth in Pete's post. YOU WON'T BECAUSE YOU CAN'T. You have never offered anything other than your own insufferable, layman's opinions. And that is because you have no facts upon which to base anything other than your "belief" about how godlike RyJo is. $3-4 million is not my view of his worth. It is the view of every professional who has evaluated Ryan against the standards of bridge contracts under the CBA. You dispute that? Well, let me borrow a page from your book: PROVE IT. And with prove it with reference to a specific expert who has analyzed the situation and concluded Joey should be getting $6 million on a bridge contract. If you can't do that, stick a pin in your now ego and let the gas out.

Pete's post was fine, his points are very valid as far as what other young players have gotten and the cap percentage. I brought up many of those com parables myself. However, it's 2014 - not 2011 or 2012 and players/agents have players have had years to learn from those deals. So deals that looked great upon signing in 2011 or 2012, like the Seguin deal, look pretty bad for the player and pretty great for the team.

An issue you boys aren't considering is the role of the player. Logan Couture when he signed his deal was on a team with Joe Thorton/Joe Pavelski. Tyler Seguin when he signed his deal had David Krejci/Patrice Bergeron. Jeff Skinner was behind Eric Staal. All three of those players were up and coming young guys, the "future" of the team but not the franchise player, not the team's leading source of offense, not the #1 center. Which is what Ryan Johansen currently is.

Per my post above, Joey isn't demanding "$6 million" a year, they recently submitted a proposal for less than $5 million per. That's per the NY Post, which may not be as reputable as a Fro source. Per usualy, KO and Joey are willing to negotiate and trade offers and our front office isn't and by making it public, don't want to now hurt their egos or appearing as if they "lost" by signing him for anything less than their public stance. A completely unprofessional and terrible negotiation tactic, which is why you don't see any other front offices doing that in the press.

 

[Nanabijou]

Per Larry Brooks:

"A well-placed source, meanwhile, told Slap Shots that Overhardt submitted a revised two-year proposal at less than $5 million per to Columbus on Thursday. But with Davidson publicly adamant the team would not move off its two-year offer of $3 million per, the team’s ability to compromise and negotiate is in itself compromised."

http://nypost.com/2014/09/20/oilers-pact-isnt-too-slick/

It's potentially interesting although I don't have a lot of faith in Brooks' reporting.

Taking a step back from which side I think is 'right', I have a feeling that this is the situation that has now developed:

Overhardt knows he doesn't have a lot of leverage, but his two biggest cards are: 1) an offer sheet and 2) absence from camp. He's on record earlier saying that he was not concerned with Joey missing camp because the pressure switches to management once he starts missing games. Option 1) is unlikely, but the longer he waits, there is still some chance one might appear due to injuries to some other team, etc.

I truly believe that Jarmo does not believe that the pressure balance shifts with Joey skipping camp - in fact, I think he believes its entirely the opposite. His comments throughout the summer have been very consistent on this. He has said repeatedly that Joey will be making a big mistake if he misses camp and there would be little negotiation after that point.

People may assume that this is all standard BS and Jarmo is posturing. But, I actually wonder if the Jackets are done negotiating. It wouldn't surprise me if they say that the time to shoot numbers back and forth is over (and say that could have been done in July) and that Joey can sit at home until he's ready to sign the $3M AAV one.

It's a hard line and I'm not going to use this post to say whether I think it's the optimal one. But, it wouldn't surprise me that the CBJ even would send back a $4M AAV counteroffer at this point.

 

[IHeartZherdev*]

It's potentially interesting although I don't have a lot of faith in Brooks' reporting.

Taking a step back from which side I think is 'right', I have a feeling that this is the situation that has now developed:

Overhardt knows he doesn't have a lot of leverage, but his two biggest cards are: 1) an offer sheet and 2) absence from camp. He's on record earlier saying that he was not concerned with Joey missing camp because the pressure switches to management once he starts missing games. Option 1) is unlikely, but the longer he waits, there is still some chance one might appear due to injuries to some other team, etc.

I truly believe that Jarmo does not believe that the pressure balance shifts with Joey skipping camp - in fact, I think he believes its entirely the opposite. His comments throughout the summer have been very consistent on this. He has said repeatedly that Joey will be making a big mistake if he misses camp and there would be little negotiation after that point.

People may assume that this is all standard BS and Jarmo is posturing. But, I actually wonder if the Jackets are done negotiating. It wouldn't surprise me if they say that the time to shoot numbers back and forth is over (and say that could have been done in July) and that Joey can sit at home until he's ready to sign the $3M AAV one.

It's a hard line and I'm not going to use this post to say whether I think it's the optimal one. But, it wouldn't surprise me that the CBJ even would send back a $4M AAV counteroffer at this point.

If they hadn't come out publicly, they could have accepted or negotiated a $4 million per deal, or one with the first year at $3.5 and the second at $4.5 or something. But now, they have to appear like they "won" because they brought the media involved. So now it's them holding up the deal since KO is clearly still submitting proposals.

Brooksie is pretty reputable. Also, listening to the most recent puck rakers podcast, all 3 of the dispatch guys go out of their way to talk about what a good kid Johansen is. Just more proof against those of you who trash the kid personally with the baseless name calling.

Also - sitting out camp and missing games is huge leverage. The CBJ need Johansen. They lose 60 points without him in the lineup and Jarmo's prize racehorse Horton already out. Someones got to score and make plays, and it ain't going to be S-Hjal.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Per Larry Brooks:

"A well-placed source, meanwhile, told Slap Shots that Overhardt submitted a revised two-year proposal at less than $5 million per to Columbus on Thursday. But with Davidson publicly adamant the team would not move off its two-year offer of $3 million per, the team’s ability to compromise and negotiate is in itself compromised."

http://nypost.com/2014/09/20/oilers-pact-isnt-too-slick/

Wow..That's interesting

 

[Nanabijou]

Brooksie is pretty reputable. Also, listening to the most recent puck rakers podcast, all 3 of the dispatch guys go out of their way to talk about what a good kid Johansen is. Just more proof against those of you who trash the kid personally with the baseless name calling.

Yes, I did listen to the podcast and they raved about Joey. Not all of us are entrenched in a black-and-white position that we either think Joey is a hero or he's a heel. Lots of people can be personable and great to be around, but in their work environment they still might be most productive if they have a boss that pushes them a bit more. That's where I stand on Joey - probably a great team-mate, but I think he needs the stick as much as he needs the carrot if he's going to reach his potential.

They also said in the podcast that they talked to a reputable long-time agent (who is supposedly neutral and doesn't have a vendetta here) who said that a 'fair' price for Joey's AAV on a bridge contract should begin with a '3' in accordance with the CBA and precedents.

 

[pete goegan]

If they hadn't come out publicly, they could have accepted or negotiated a $4 million per deal, or one with the first year at $3.5 and the second at $4.5 or something. But now, they have to appear like they "won" because they brought the media involved. So now it's them holding up the deal since KO is clearly still submitting proposals.

If it's true that the player's team has made an offer of less than $5mil (and I often have seen doubts raised about Brooks), then the FO can still come up with a counter of less than $4mil but more than $3mil and claim that they are being magnanimous to make their player happy. He still won't be, of course, but both sides can save a bit of face in the end.

 

[Crede777]

That's a good quote, IHZ.

I think management is stuck. They feel their offer on Thursday needed to be their final offer. They seem to think if they come up, they are rewarding Johansen for holding out and sending the message that if a player holds out, the team will come up in its offer.

For their worth, they need the message to be that holding out of camp and/or regular season games has no effect.

This puts them at a worse position in my opinion because it removes the ability to compromise at all.

 

[pete goegan]

That's a good quote, IHZ.

I think management is stuck. They feel their offer on Thursday needed to be their final offer. They seem to think if they come up, they are rewarding Johansen for holding out and sending the message that if a player holds out, the team will come up in its offer.

For their worth, they need the message to be that holding out of camp and/or regular season games has no effect.

This puts them at a worse position in my opinion because it removes the ability to compromise at all.

If North Korea can claim to be a heaven on earth, JD can paint a signed contract for $3.75mil as a win for all!

 

[Crede777]

If North Korea can claim to be a heaven on earth, JD can paint a signed contract for $3.75mil as a win for all!

Yeah but do you see Johansen signing for less than $4 million? It'll be interesting to see team dynamics if he does.

 

[Pirate King Luffy]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=462293

REPORT: BLUE JACKETS RFA JOHANSEN TO RECEIVE KHL OFFER

According to TSN's Farhan Lalji, CSKA Moscow will offer Johansen a one-year, $5 million contract on Saturday night.

 

[DJA]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=462293

REPORT: BLUE JACKETS RFA JOHANSEN TO RECEIVE KHL OFFER

CSKA can offer an eleventy-billion dollar contract and it doesn't mean a damn thing.

 

[Crede777]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=462293

REPORT: BLUE JACKETS RFA JOHANSEN TO RECEIVE KHL OFFER

I think the next tweet is important... That he has received about 7 KHL offers before now, although this is the most significant.

 

[db2011]

This was posted by Kashie14:


In August 2011, Logan Couture signed a 2 year bridge for an AAV of $2.875 million. The cap at the time was $64.3M, so Couture got ~4.5% of the cap. With today's cap of 69 million, that translates to $3.105 M.

In June 2012, Duchene signed a 2 year bridge for an AAV of $3.5 million. The cap at the time was projected to be $70.2 million for the upcoming season, however a new CBA was not yet signed. Duchene got ~5% of the cap, which today translates to $3.45 million.

In September 2013, Derek Stepan signed a 2 year bridge for an AAV of 3.075 million. The cap at the time was $64.3M, so Stepan got ~4.75% of the cap, which today translates to $3.275 million.

The highest % of a cap that a 2 year bridge contract has ever been was 2013-14 when Duchene was still getting $3.5M on the newly lowered cap of $64.3 million. That was ~5.5% of the cap, which today translates to $3.795M. Again, this is the highest figure for a bridge, ever.

My hunch is that CBJ offered 3 million on the bridge with the expectation that Overhardt would bring it up to 3.5, maybe even 3.75 during the negotiations. CBJ cannot offer over 4 million dollars without completely obliterating all established bridge contract precedent. That's why Davidson mentioned that they were effectively restricted by the CBA in what they can offer. If they do offer 4.5 million a year, it's a tacit message that all of those prior contracts need to be trashed and a new precedent set. Now, it's perfectly reasonable to think that a new precedent does need to be set. I do remember after pretty much every bridge contract how everyone (on here at least) felt all those contracts were low. However, compared to his peers and the contracts they have signed, Johansen is not being lowballed by being given offers in the 3 million dollar AAV range.

The reason why a 4.5 million dollar offer feels fair is that it splits the dispute in two. It might feel fair, but it isn't, unless you feel that bridge contracts have been categorically too low. One party was close from the get-go, while the other was asking for Jupiter. Split that in half and you're still somewhere around Mars; a far cry from Earth. Giving a 4.5 AAV bridge would be about a 20% increase over the next highest a 2-year bridge has ever been after adjusting for the current cap. Johansen hasn't proven to be 20% better than the players listed above.

Can't vouch for the accuracy of the math, but it's interesting, nonetheless.

This is a good post. You know what's nice about it is that it proves you can prove that Joey can take the position he's taken and not be a greedy, me me me, self centered jerk, as a lot of Blue Jackets "fans" here seem to want to paint him as.

This is a good, dispassionate articulation of where management is coming from. Honestly, it's given me reason to rethink my approach. But I still come away feeling like $4m is the lowest I'd go.

Going by these numbers and this logic, we may as well not even have negotiations for contracts at this point in a player's career. But we do. It's not standardized, it's not formal, it's open to negotiation. Well then, so what if Joey sets a precedent? Someone has to; someone already did. If it were bad form to deviate from previous practice, then the ability to do so wouldn't have been codified in the CBA.

Joey is a stud, a 1C who is the highest scoring player for hist team, by a mile. You have to pay for that. Maybe $5m is too high, under RFA averages, but $3m is still too low IMO. Sorry, JD, but just cause no one's done it before doesn't mean you're not on the hook to do it now. Stop hiding behind the CBA and pay a fair wage for a player you are going to LEAN ON to take you to the next level.

 

[Sore Loser]

If he wants to go ride outdated, notably dangerous airplanes, in a country that is doing everything it can to re-ignite the cold war, for $1 million dollars more than he could reasonably sign for here ... I say farewell.

Enjoy road games in Siberia.

That being said, I don't see him taking that kind of offer. Nobody in their right mind that isn't Russian (and can play in the NHL) would want to go over there right now.

 

[blahblah]

Joey is a stud, a 1C who is the highest scoring player for hist team, by a mile. You have to pay for that. Maybe $5m is too high, under RFA averages, but $3m is still too low IMO. Sorry, JD, but just cause no one's done it before doesn't mean you're not on the hook to do it now. Stop hiding behind the CBA and pay a fair wage for a player you are going to LEAN ON to take you to the next level.

It's the same as it was a few days ago. From the front office this is a discussion about bridge deals and the values associated with them.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Yeah he's going to the KHL

Yes, sarcasm