RW Tyler Boucher - Belleville Senators, AHL (2021, 10th, OTT)

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Yup, apparently Formy is learning how to be a heavy equipment operator these days, so that might be a good move for this kid too since Formy is ten times the player he'll ever be

Well the reason "Formy" is not in the NHL is because he is facing charges for allegedly participating in the gang-rape of a young woman. It's not a skill issue.

 

[Barsky]

Well the reason "Formy" is not in the NHL is because he is facing charges for allegedly participating in the gang-rape of a young woman. It's not a skill issue.

That's irrelevant, my only point was they're both Sens draft picks who are close in age and clearly the NHL isn't a viable option for either of them going forward

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

That's irrelevant, my only point was they're both Sens draft picks who are close in age and clearly the NHL isn't a viable option for either of them going forward

I think its irrelevant and actually a little disturbed to focus solely on hockey skill when one man is facing a rape charge and the other is not.

You are the one who started discussing the skills of an alleged gang rapist in a thread about something it has nothing to do with. Not me.

 

[Barsky]

I think its irrelevant and actually a little disturbed to focus solely on hockey skill when one man is facing a rape charge and the other is not.

You are the one who started discussing the skills of an alleged gang rapist in a thread about something it has nothing to do with. Not me.

Omfg ... I was comparing him to a kid in a similar situation, drafted by the same team, with similar pedigree and vis a vis their age and having lived the past decade assuming pro hockey is in their future which it clearly isn't. You wanna fixate on the other stuff, that's on you

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Omfg ... I was comparing him to a kid in a similar situation, drafted by the same team, with similar pedigree and vis a vis their age and having lived the past decade assuming pro hockey is in their future which it clearly isn't. You wanna fixate on the other stuff, that's on you

Boucher will continue to play pro hockey at some level for a while if he wants to; Formenton will not because he, as someone facing felony rape charges, is in a completely different situation.

It was a very weird thing to bring up. I’m so sorry for bringing up his pending rape charges (i.e why hes not playing) in response to you comparing their futures.

 

[Barsky]

Boucher will continue to play pro hockey at some level for a while if he wants to; Formenton will not because he is in a completely different situation, as someone facing rape charges.

It was a very weird thing to bring up.

I literally just read the article TSN had up from last week about his lawsuit against his agent and how he is now learning to use heavy equipment so he was top of mind, apart from the numerous parallels I just listed. Boucher has been so bad and constantly getting hurt that no, I don't think pro hockey is in his future either, another parallel, now give it a rest.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Omfg ... I was comparing him to a kid in a similar situation, drafted by the same team, with similar pedigree and vis a vis their age and having lived the past decade assuming pro hockey is in their future which it clearly isn't. You wanna fixate on the other stuff, that's on you

It's a pretty dumb comparison because you're saying he's no Formenton and Formenton isn't in the NHL.

... Formenton would be in the NHL if not for his current criminal issues.

 

[Barsky]

It's a pretty dumb comparison because you're saying he's no Formenton and Formenton isn't in the NHL.

... Formenton would be in the NHL if not for his current criminal issues.

But he isn't and won't be and neither will Boucher, I'm done with this

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

It's unclear what Dorion was thinking when he made this pick. You can usually get a player like this in 2nd-3rd at the draft.

I still think he meant to pick Wallstedt in the 1st then Boucher in the 2nd, but someone deleted the top row of his excel sheet with prospects on it.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

But he isn't and won't be and neither will Boucher, I'm done with this

Yes.

For completely different reasons.

A fact that continues to escape you lol.

 

[WarriorofTime]

But he isn't and won't be and neither will Boucher, I'm done with this

take the L, this is embarrassing

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Whatever you say, buddy.

Okay, and I'm right. Sorry if you don't like it.

There were specific teams named that were interested in selecting him in the first round and by far the most reputable publication for giving us an idea of how NHL teams view players rated him as a first rounder.

You may not have liked Boucher. He may not end up good, but no there aren't players like him that can be found in the second or third round. That's simply revisionist history, and you haven't made any argument for your claim.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I guess you have no idea how many Sens fans freaked out at such a reach, myself especially, when there was such a clearly defined top 10 players in that draft. It's not remotely revisionist history, the pick to make was Wallstedt then and still is now, you take the best player available, period, he wasn't it then and sure af isn't now

Then I'll explain it to you since you claim to not understand something I'm sure you know.

If Boucher reached his potential (and he's only 21, so I don't know why people are writing him off so quickly), you are getting a style of player that there are very few of in the NHL. The type of player that teams waste first round picks on as rentals at the trade deadline, and most of those players aren't even fully what Boucher could be. They are lite-versions with some moderate physicality.

Boucher's potential is/was Tom Wilson. Pretty clear why they made the pick. Doesn't guarantee it works out, but there was nothing unclear about why it was made, reach or not.

 

[Leafshater67]

If Boucher reached his potential (and he's only 21, so I don't know why people are writing him off so quickly), you are getting a style of player that there are very few of in the NHL

Boucher's potential is/was Tom Wilson. Pretty clear why they made the pick. Doesn't guarantee it works out, but there was nothing unclear about why it was made, reach or not.

Boucher’s potential was a poor man’s Tom Wilson at best and most of us thought he was at best, a 4th liner in the NHL. There’s tons of physical grinders with decent skating ability in the NHL. The pick was highly controversial from day 1 because of his low ceiling.

And I think it’s more than fair to call him a bust now. He’s only 21 but he’s done nothing. He’s a 4th liner in the AHL and has like 5 points in the last 2 seasons in the minors. I know injuries but at no point has he ever looked good since being drafted. I’ve had more goals in a CHL season than him ffs and I’m an electrician now. Lol

It was called a bad pick at the time and it looks even worse now. I figured he’d be a bottom 6’er in the NHL, not the AHL

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Taking a player with this sort of (non) upside in the top 10 picks of the draft is functionally insane. It was then, it still is now. It was a crazy reach for a guy who maybe should have gone in the 25-35 range.

Then within a year it was pretty obvious he should have gone in the 3rd-4th round.

And the offense is never coming. He's had terrible numbers consistently since being drafted. Right now if he turns into a Mike Brown-type 4th liner it's probably a big win.

Completely disagree. The 10th pick isn't as likely to turn into an impact NHL'er as people think.

Here are the 15 10OA's before Boucher:

2020: Perfetti
2019: Podkolzin
2018: Bouchard
2017: Tippett
2016: Jost
2015: Rantanen
2014: Ritchie
2013: Nichushkin
2012: Koekkoek
2011: Brodin
2010: McIlrath
2009: Paajarvi
2008: Hodgson
2007: Ellerby
2006: Frolik

Of those 15 I'm counting four impact NHLers, Bouchard, Rantanen, Nichushkin, and Brodin. If you get a middle six forward with that pick, you've done okay.

The other thing worth mentioning is they obviously ranked Boucher higher than you did and saw more upside than you did. If you think you're getting Tom Wilson, you absolutely take that player at 10OA. As the previous 10OA's prove, he'd be top 5 10OA's in a 15 year span very easily.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

Boucher’s potential was a poor man’s Tom Wilson at best and most of us thought he was at best, a 4th liner in the NHL. There’s tons of physical grinders with decent skating ability in the NHL.

And I think it’s more than fair to call him a bust now. He’s only 21 but he’s done nothing. He’s a 4th liner in the AHL and has like 5 points in the last 2 seasons in the minors. I know injuries but at no point has he ever looked good since being drafted. I’ve had more goals in a CHL season than him ffs and I’m an electrician now. Lol

It was called a bad pick at the time and it looks even worse now. I figured he’d be a bottom 6’er in the NHL, not the AHL

I agree with @Pavel Buchnevich . At the time, Boucher wasn’t looked at a as poor man’s Tom Wilson. He was looked at as a guy that could potentially be on par with Tom Wilson. That’s a really valuable player. It was a big risk because he didn’t play many games his draft year.

If he hit his potential, he would’ve been certainly worth the pick. I personally felt he was high risk, but I saw the potential reward for sure.

 

[PlayersLtd]

And the reason why people thought he could be on par with Wilson is because his raw athleticism boosted his upside. He was always touted as a very athletic prospect and if you have watched him since being drafted you see why, his hands and skating are impressive. They aren't translating but that doesn't mean they aren't impressive.

 

[BondraTime]

Boucher’s potential wasn’t Wilson.

Sens head scout came out and flatly said he’s not a Tom Wilson

“He’s not Tom Wilson. That’s not fair to the kid.”

Mann on the Team 1200 less than a year after the draft.

 

[bigdog16]

Boucher’s potential wasn’t Wilson.

Sens head scout came out and flatly said he’s not a Tom Wilson

“He’s not Tom Wilson. That’s not fair to the kid.”

Mann on the Team 1200 less than a year after the draft.

When he was 17-18 years old it was

 

[BondraTime]

When he was 17-18 years old it was

That was less than a year after he was drafted. His 18 year old season.

 

[MS]

Completely disagree. The 10th pick isn't as likely to turn into an impact NHL'er as people think.

Here are the 15 10OA's before Boucher:

2020: Perfetti
2019: Podkolzin
2018: Bouchard
2017: Tippett
2016: Jost
2015: Rantanen
2014: Ritchie
2013: Nichushkin
2012: Koekkoek
2011: Brodin
2010: McIlrath
2009: Paajarvi
2008: Hodgson
2007: Ellerby
2006: Frolik

Of those 15 I'm counting four impact NHLers, Bouchard, Rantanen, Nichushkin, and Brodin. If you get a middle six forward with that pick, you've done okay.

The other thing worth mentioning is they obviously ranked Boucher higher than you did and saw more upside than you did. If you think you're getting Tom Wilson, you absolutely take that player at 10OA. As the previous 10OA's prove, he'd be top 5 10OA's in a 15 year span very easily.

I'm well familiar with the numbers. And thinking that a pick is an OK pick if the maximum upside fits in with the average result of that pick is fundamentally not understanding the draft and draft values.

A 10th overall pick has about a 25% chance of being an major impact player and when you take a Tyler Boucher with 15-15-30 middle-6 upside in the top 10 and forfeit the chance to draft a Rantanen or Bouchard ... that's functionally insane.

He also didn't have 'Tom Wilson upside'. If everything went perfectly he could maybe have been Tanner Jeannot.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm well familiar with the numbers. And thinking that a pick is an OK pick if the maximum upside fits in with the average result of that pick is fundamentally not understanding the draft and draft values.

A 10th overall pick has about a 25% chance of being an major impact player and when you take a Tyler Boucher with 15-15-30 middle-6 upside in the top 10 and forfeit the chance to draft a Rantanen or Bouchard ... that's functionally insane.

He also didn't have 'Tom Wilson upside'. If everything went perfectly he could maybe have been Tanner Jeannot.

Ottawa obviously thought he had more upside than you did. That's why they picked him where they did. Seems pretty simple.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

It kind of looks like a couple people with strong opinions on him were wrong and are having a very hard time accepting that lol. I hope you find peace.

 

[MS]

Ottawa obviously thought he had more upside than you did. That's why they picked him where they did. Seems pretty simple.

Wow, there hasn't been a team that made a bad pick in the history of the draft!

 

[WarriorofTime]

If Boucher reached his potential (and he's only 21, so I don't know why people are writing him off so quickly)

Pavel, you're fundamentally missing timelines with draft picks here. Boucher is 21 already, this puts him halfway through his ELC. A draft pick by his second AHL season should be on the doorstep of the NHL and positioning themselves for at the very least callup duty in order to get NHL reps and show the drafting team that they are a player worthy of holding a roster spot open for by the following year. By the third year, an ideal draft pick is already established on the NHL lineup and a regular. This is because by the end of that year, their ELC and often their waiver exemption will expire. This determines what kind of contract you give that player as you structure your team around a salary cap (the very best players extended long-term, more medium players get shorter prove-it 1-way deals, mediocre players receive two-way contracts and the ones that teams write off aren't qualified at all and become unrestricted free agents, often signing 2-way deals, AHL deals or going overseas).

In Boucher's case, nothing screams a player that is on the doorstep of the NHL and making a strong case for callup duties. Barring anything completely unexpected at this point, there is no reasonable possibility of the Senators holding a roster spot open next year specifically for him and he'll need to make a huge leap in order to be an NHL regular by next season.

Even if a player is not in the NHL by the end of their ELC, they could still have an NHL future. However, the typical path here is hanging around NHL Training Camps, being available on the Waiver Wire and bouncing from team to team as a guy to plug in roster holes as necessary. Grinding out a couple hundred career NHL games doesn't make a successful draft pick. We know every team is going to have 18 skaters per night in their lineup. One way or another, it's going to be filled. Just because someone once upon a time used a draft pick on the roster plugs doesn't mean anything successful came out of it. Jack Skille is not a successful 7th overall draft pick because he played 368 career NHL games across five NHL teams.

On rare occasions, there are the players who fit the mold who end up far exceeding the plug expectations. However, if you look around to these sorts of players, it's extremely rare for this to occur all on one team. Often it takes changes of scenery, and a 2nd, sometimes even 3rd team to find the right situation and break out in a big way, usually in their mid-20s and some seven or eight years after being drafted. For the original drafting team, this is simply "one who got away" and not a successful draft pick for that team.

Point being, Boucher does still technically have time to become a successful draft pick. However, not nearly as much time as you make it out to be, and he will need to make a huge leap from where he is at currently.