RW Tyler Boucher - Belleville Senators, AHL (2021, 10th, OTT)

[Goon42]

Seems like a huge reach but he is going to be such a fun player to watch if he pans out (and i hope he does)

 

[Samsquanch]

By no means do I have a comprehensive pulse on the draft prospects (and no one here does) or am I saying Boucher was the right pick at 10 as I only really follow American prospects closely at this stage. But I knew a bunch of people who don't follow the NTDP or USHL would overreact when the pick happened. People are acting like he's Tyler Biggs or something and it's so wildly inaccurate.

They don't know who Boucher is because he missed the U18s and that's where they get their first exposure to the guys who aren't the huge NTDP names during their 2 years with the program. They're stat watching and it's not a good way to scout and project. Boucher has the frame, very good skating, and plenty of skill. And no one with the NTDP '03 team had a better development curve between their U17 and U18 season. The only reason he wasn't a lot higher in draft rankings is he got hurt.

And the Senators know this well. Two of their young studs - Tkachuk and Norris (even though they didn't draft him, they obviously knew his NTDP game very well) - had very similar development progression path with the NTDP as Boucher. Statistically they were just okay in their U17 seasons but the tools and ability were obvious - they just needed time. And all three took huge development leaps in their U18 seasons, albeit Boucher with a smaller sample size. I'm sure the Sens see the similarities there as do I.

No need to sell yourself short, but yes the bolded is exactly why I appreciate your opinion on USHL prospects. Especially the kids from the NTDP. And if you were totally puzzled by this pick (you dont have to agree with him at #10 thats all fine and dandy at this point in time), and you felt like this was another Tyler Biggs - I would be VERY concerned as a fan.

Knowing what this draft year was (ie a complete crapshoot when it comes to scouting accuracy), and that clearly there is much more than meets the eye with this player - a hallmark of most Sens picks - Im far more at ease right now.

It wasnt my pick at #10, but neither were Chabot or Tkachuk when the Sens were taken. And both of these players are tracking to be on my top 5 all-time Senators list as of today. So what the hell do I know, is what Im okay with admitting.

 

[Asquaredx2]

We've made some good off-the-board picks but we've also made some blunders. Hopefully this was the former.

Man though, watching Eklund - Clarke - Guenther go 7-8-9 makes me less happy that we ended the season on a winning streak!

 

[SENStastic]

If you don’t know what you are saying, it’s be better to refrain from commenting. Too many people here don’t have a clue what they are saying.

Boucher is far from a boxer. He’s a skilled power forward. I could see him scoring at a first or second line rate eventually. He missed a lot of time this season, so that hurt his draft stock with the public perception, but he showed good improvement from last season with making more happen from shift to shift. He’s also a huge physical presence. One of the most punishing hitters in any recent draft. I wouldn’t have taken him this high, but I absolutely could see him being the 10th best player in this draft. He’s Tom Wilson 2.0 if he hits his ceiling.

I'm really hoping you are right, this is a ridiculous reach. PD is either going to look a genius or a complete idiot in a few years for at least not trading down. Not a fan of this pick at all but I hope im wrong. What a crappy week for Sens fans, no trades at all to address our needs when every other team seems to be in on one, and a completely off the mark pick. Pretty irritated tbh

 

[Love]

Despite the shock of the pick this could work out really well for the Senators. Risky, but he had a massive toolbox. We’ll see what happens.

 

[William H Bonney]

I'm really hoping you are right, this is a ridiculous reach. PD is either going to look a genius or a complete idiot in a few years for at least not trading down. Not a fan of this pick at all but I hope im wrong. What a crappy week for Sens fans, no trades at all to address our needs when every other team seems to be in on one, and a completely off the mark pick. Pretty irritated tbh

You shouldn't assume that Boucher would have still been there if they traded down very far. The lists for each team are drastically different than the "consensus" rankings and fans put far too much stock into the rankings.

 

[SENStastic]

You shouldn't assume that Boucher would have still been there if they traded down very far. The lists for each team are drastically different than the "consensus" rankings and fans put far too much stock into the rankings.

While true, it still doesn't justify such a huge reach at 10OA when everyone had him deep in the second round. Should've taken the risk and traded down anyways and hoped he was still available

 

[William H Bonney]

While true, it still doesn't justify such a huge reach at 10OA when everyone had him deep in the second round. Should've taken the risk and traded down anyways and hoped he was still available

Everyone who had him deep in the second round isn't determining NHL draft picks. That's not to say their rankings are irrelevant or may not prove to be more accurate in time but they have no bearing on what is or isn't a reach. The most realistic draft rankings are those complied by Bob McKenzie from a sampling of actual NHL scouts. Those rankings had Boucher at 29th and that's with him missing most of the year. If multiple teams had Boucher around 10 on their lists, it'd be hard to claim it was a reach. Boucher going 10th is more indicative of him being a polarizing prospect than a reach.

The "reach" overreactions each draft aren't really any different than the "steal" overreactions and often they're not rooted in anything rational.

 

[SpezDispenser]

While true, it still doesn't justify such a huge reach at 10OA when everyone had him deep in the second round. Should've taken the risk and traded down anyways and hoped he was still available

Why hope he's still there when you can get him?

 

[SENStastic]

Why hope he's still there when you can get him?

Because there is a good chance you can get him and another decent prospect as well if you trade down when he's projected to go much later? It's not the best use of a 10OA pick, that's why

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Why hope he's still there when you can get him?

not like we are talking about a guy who is ever gonna set the league on fire.

The chances of Boucher being the best player from this draft is near zero.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Because there is a good chance you can get him and another decent prospect as well if you trade down when he's projected to go much later? It's not the best use of a 10OA pick, that's why

One of the best scouting teams disagrees with you though.0

 

[William H Bonney]

Because there is a good chance you can get him and another decent prospect as well if you trade down when he's projected to go much later? It's not the best use of a 10OA pick, that's why

NHL teams have a much better understanding of where other NHL teams have players like Boucher projected than the rest of us. They couldn't care less about the draft rankings from "experts."

 

[Senscore]

One way or another, it's picks like this Dorion will be remembered for.

Either he pulls one over on the league or he's the guy who looks like a supreme idiot for wasting a top 10 pick.

 

[Sensfan8448]

Because there is a good chance you can get him and another decent prospect as well if you trade down when he's projected to go much later? It's not the best use of a 10OA pick, that's why

The Rangers were going to potentially take him at 16 (per the New England Hockey journal) and other teams had discussed drafting him between 11-15 as well. They clearly wanted Boucher, and they didn't think they could move back and still get him. While he wouldn't have been my choice at 10 (Sillinger for me), I think the narrative around him being some kind of historic reach is pretty ludacris.

 

[Sensfan8448]

NHL teams have a much better understanding of where other NHL teams have players like Boucher projected than the rest of us. They couldn't care less about the draft rankings from "experts."

I've really enjoyed reading your insights on Boucher. As a Sens fan, I was kind of shocked by the pick but I feel more comfortable now having heard from someone that has watched him develop over the past few years.

 

[William H Bonney]

I've really enjoyed reading your insights on Boucher. As a Sens fan, I was kind of shocked by the pick but I feel more comfortable now having heard from someone that has watched him develop over the past few years.

There's quite a few close NTDP / USHL followers on this board that I'm sure will chime as well with insights beyond those of us who have already. He certainly could bust or prove unworthy of the #10 pick but that's true for most draft picks, even the high ones. I'm personally excited to see how Boucher does at WJC camp and the upcoming season at BU now that he's healthy again. Given his noticeable development leap from his U17 to his (limited) U18 season, I wouldn't be surprised if he starts out in a way that quells some of these concerns.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

This really seemed like Dorion trying to be the smartest guy in the room. We’ll see.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm really hoping you are right, this is a ridiculous reach. PD is either going to look a genius or a complete idiot in a few years for at least not trading down. Not a fan of this pick at all but I hope im wrong. What a crappy week for Sens fans, no trades at all to address our needs when every other team seems to be in on one, and a completely off the mark pick. Pretty irritated tbh

He wasn't going to be there later. Rangers were taking him at 15. It was confirmed by a pretty reliable source. You guys beat us to it. There were probably other teams. Maybe teams before the Rangers at 15 that would've taken him.

I knew this was going to happen with Boucher. He's exactly the type of player that NHL teams covet, and he had very little exposure this season because he barely played due to injury. He was unlikely to appear that high on many initial lists.

But when he played he was really good and looked much improved from the prior season. He was always going to move up in the weeks preceding the draft. I'm a little surprised he went 10th, but there were probably at least a few other teams that would've taken him before 20. I agree it's probably a reach based on his ability, but if you covet a player, you sometimes have to reach for that player.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

A few other things I want to reiterate, and then I'll stop defending this pick.

Boucher is one of the most eventful players you'll find. The guy is instantly noticeable on every shift. If he's not making offensive plays, he will knock guys down with crushing hits. He's the type of player that other players do not want to go up against because he will make their life miserable.

And Boucher is the type of player that will be incredibly polarizing. He's going to get himself suspended a lot, if he keeps up this style of play. I'm not suggesting he'll end up better than a well-rounded center that projects to be a middle six center without much hype, but Boucher plays such a flashy style of play and will generate so much attention that his own fans will love him and everyone else will hate him. The reason why he doesn't yet have that reputation is because fans don't know his game well enough yet.

I think this is exactly the type of pick fans will love as they understand his game better, regardless of if it was the correct draft slot. If all you care about is BPA every pick, it's a slight reach. If you want your team to add some personality and excitement to the team, Boucher is essentially an extinct player. There hasn't been a player like Boucher since Tom Wilson was drafted.

 

[Osakahaus]

Senators did this only because they had so many prospects. Maybe Dorion is smart but this is stupid. I don't get it unless Boucher is magically some sort of savant of forechecking

 

[majormajor]

I think Tyler Boucher has an NHL floor. Someone that strong who hits that hard will play a role. The upside isn't super high but you could get a 20 goal crash and bang guy out of him. Those guys aren't that easy to get and they can become extra valuable in the playoffs.

 

[MrInvidious]

yet there are people who tell me ottawa is good at drafting even though they make trash picks every year

One of the best prospect pools in the league while making horrible draft picks every year.

Impressive if true.

 

[JimmySpaetzle]

Dorion really woke up today and said let me put my job on the line

 

[Samsquanch]

Senators did this only because they had so many prospects. Maybe Dorion is smart but this is stupid. I don't get it unless Boucher is magically some sort of savant of forechecking

He played like 12 games this year - can you honestly say with any confidence what Boucher is?

I think its completely fair to say that hes definitely a gamble versus the better known commodities that were available. But I think its laughable to suggest that you know anything tangible about a player that had an injury, a pneumonia, and had covid in his draft year.

From all indications from those who have followed him, he was poised to have a huge season, and has way more upside than hes being given credit for here. Much like Shane Pinto who went on to have a prolific, award winning college career, and turned pro seamlessly at the end of last year.