Isn't the whole point of scouts getting paid money to watch hockey that they should have some sort of grasp on realistic projections for these players though? I mean, don't get me wrong, you can't predict everything and it's pretty hard to gauge how a player is going to develop sometimes but overall I am very surprised at not only Bjorkstrand but several other players that scouts projected completely wrong where even I, not a hockey expert by any means, could see that those guys would be players. Sure, he's not in the NHL yet and anything can happen still, but he's trending extremely well.
It's just a headscratcher for me personally how scouts a lot of the time seem to value lesser skilled players higher than people who have a ton of hockey sense and skill just because they are "big" or "mean" or "really good defensively". Skill and hockey IQ are the two things you can't teach. Using a skating coach, watching video on how to play defense and a good workout program can take care of pretty much everything else.
Overall I think you have it backwards.
1 - The projections by scouts are realistic, based on the evidence they have at the time - you are judging these scouts in hindsight - by factors that have changed since that time. Even the Blue Jackets scouts drafted FOUR other players before Bjorkstrand. There are a lot of factors about Bjorkstrand (which I already mentioned) which meant that there were 88 other players projected to be better NHL players. You are judging children based upon sets of incomplete analysis and that is the way it will always be. Moving the draft age to 21 would make it more accurate but probably still not 100% so. It is unrealistic to expect it to be so. How development will go is a complete guess and any suggestion that it is otherwise is a mistake. And guesses are just that: guesses.
2 - Firstly skill and hockey IQ is largely taught, learned and practiced - so I think you are wrong that someone like Bjorkstrand came out of the womb with a great wrist shot. Sure, with most players you are able to judge skill levels or potential skill levels by the time players are 17, but not always. And skill isn't the biggest single factor in making an NHL player, its just part of the package. There are plenty of high scoring players in the NHL with very limited skill - because they use other factors, including skating, meanness, grittiness, and size to do so. Heck, I can think of players like Brett Hull and Luc Robitaille who were one skill ponies who did little else. Hall of Famer types.
3 - Skating coaches do not always improve skating to a level good enough for the NHL. The AHL is full of players who cannot keep up to the speed of the NHL, even if they have a ton of skill. The AHL, KHL are full of players with more skill than other players who play 1000 games in the NHL. Skill isn't everything. And while skating isn't everything, it is one of the bigger detriments to a potential NHL career.
4 - Meanness/Toughness is one of the factors that cannot be taught. Its an innate personality trait - some people are just incapable of it. Size is a genetic trait and overall it is a major factor in the NHL. A good workout program is never going to make a 5'10", 150lb player into a 6'2", 225lb'er if the genetics are not there.
5 - Plenty of players are just never big enough to handle the type of play in the NHL. This is a fact. For every Gaudreau that makes it there are hundreds who will not because they cannot handle (or avoid) the physical play against players who average 6'1" + and 205lbs+ and are often much, much larger.
6 - Situation is a major factor which distorts viewing. Players on powerhouse teams easily get overrated because they're playing with other great players. Equally they can get underrated in the same situation. Players may play on weaker teams that hide their potential upside (Monahan) or they might play in an underscouted league or country. They may even be over scouted and have their game nitpicked apart (undrafted players like Tanner Pearson or Mark Giordano for example).
7 - There are 30 NHL teams that wish they could teach defense just by making a player watch a video.
8 - Get a job with the Maple Leafs. They could use you!
EDIT: Personally I think Bjorkstrand has grown tremendously as a player since his draft. This is a more important factor for his rise to prominence, as opposed to the fact that scouts suck.
