RW Matvei Michkov (2023, 7th, PHI) Part 4

[karltonian]

I mean, other than delayed Fedotov arrival, did the political situation affect any of the drafted players at all ?

In retrospect no but it was pretty up in the air at that time as to what was going to happen with Russia on the sporting world stage, from both ends.

Without that context Michkov definitely gets drafted higher.

 

[deejb]

But as he did so often in Sochi, he blew the zone looking for a breakaway pass that never came, because it was in the back of his net, scored by the guy he should have been checking.

Michkov had +- around 0 in awful Sochi team. So, even if he "often blew the zone" (he didn't), it worked. He made a mistake last game, but overall he's OK defensively.

	GP	+-	+- per game
Sochi 22-24	136	-198	-1.45588
Michkov 22-24	74	-5	-0.06757

for comparison

	GP	+-	+- per game
Chicago 23-24	82	-111	-1.35366
Bedard 23-24	68	-44	-0.64706

 

[SaSaShi]

Will Smith over Michkov was an equally dumb pick as he’s not more skilled and he’s not a big center

I agree, all players in the 23 draft save Bedard don't have the ceiling and pedigree of Michkov, but the potential mistake for CLB, ANA and SJ is not as big as it could be for Montreal.

Doesn't help that Montreal was the cheerleader in pointing out flaws of Michkov via their russian scout.

Regarding Bedard/Michkov, I feel they're comparable but I still take Bedard. But would it surprise anyone here if in fact michkov outplays him and becomes the undisputed best player of that draft ? Hell no.

 

[dgibb10]

Will Smith over Michkov was an equally dumb pick as he’s not more skilled and he’s not a big center

You don't need to be big to be an elite center.

 

[Devonator]

You can understand the 4 of the 5 teams who passed on michkov. CLB ,SJ and ANA wanted centers and felt that fantilli/carlsson/smith were comparable to michkov without the russian factor. From

Arizona knew Michkov didn't wanna play for them.

Montreal is the big question mark bc Reinbacher was a reach and the talent level and ceiling difference between the 2 is significant. Montreal also haven't had a potential MVP forward type of player since forever.

Aldo, Michkov would have gladly went to Montreal, because he prioritized hockey cities, none bigger than MTL.

Demidov is gonna save Hughes from the embarassment of this mistake. But imagine having BOTH. This is what Briere was attempting at last year's draft trying to trade for pick no 4.

Demidov-Michkov combo would have been LETHAL.

I was not aware of some of those realities about the other teams passing on Michkov.....but yeah...can you imagine if Montreal had added Michkov....along with their other young talent...their rebuild would essentially have been complete and no doubt a future Stanley cup challenger....

 

[Kshahdoo]

You don't need to be big to be an elite center.

Yeah, but Smith isn't elite, and I doubt he will ever become the one. Solid 1C? Probably. Elite? I very doubt it.

 

[SaSaShi]

I was not aware of some of those realities about the other teams passing on Michkov.....but yeah...can you imagine if Montreal had added Michkov....along with their other young talent...their rebuild would essentially have been complete and no doubt a future Stanley cup challenger....

If montreal had demidov and michkov plus hage, hutson, slaf , etc.

Yikes, would be the envy of the league, as mtl would have secured 2 of the 4 best prospects from the last two drafts.

I would have given up what CLB was wanting from Briere to get Demidov.

 

[Tkachuk4MVP]

In retrospect no but it was pretty up in the air at that time as to what was going to happen with Russia on the sporting world stage, from both ends.

Without that context Michkov definitely gets drafted higher.

I said it on the Sharks board, but I really hope that’s not the reason Grier passed on him. Even at the time it seemed like the Russia stuff was overblown (Fedotov had already got out of his contract by that point). It’s think it’s more likely that Michkov leveraged his situation to end up on a team like Philly that he wanted to play for. Meanwhile, the Sharks were just another Arizona.

 

[FriarChill]

I am not sure why "the russian factor" is still a thing. The russian top prospects all come to NA, at least i can't think of anyone who didnt. There is a way bigger risk involved drafting NCAA players lol
Will Smith got a lot of hype late with his U18 MVP and being probably the best player on one of the best pre draft lines in recent memory. Well Michkov won the MVP at the U18 too but 2 years earlier, still being 16 years old.
I get the Carlsson and Fantilli picks, both will be awesome too. I am a big Carlsson fan too and i think he'll be very tough to play against in a few years. But from a talent point it was Bedard 1A and Michkov 1B then the rest imo.

 

[NatusVincere]

As a GM I would have drafted Bedard, Fantilli and Carlsson before Michkov. The hype about this guys was simply to big. Even as a diehard Michkov fan, with the expectations the fans had I would lose my job almost immediately after the draft for drafting a guy who will arrive in 3 years over prospects who can help the franchise right away. Maybe if Michkov would have played the U20 and outscored Bedard as he did at the U18, we could have talked about him going second (or even 1OA). But it wouldn’t be possible to sell Michkovs 20 KHL points to NA audience to justify the pick. Everything after the top 3 were simply brainfarts from the GMs. And I do believe that at least the Jackets will regret the Fantilli pick, but back then you really couldn’t do otherwise but draft the three over Mich.

 

[AD1066]

As a GM I would have drafted Bedard, Fantilli and Carlsson before Michkov. The hype about this guys was simply to big. Even as a diehard Michkov fan, with the expectations the fans had I would lose my job almost immediately after the draft for drafting a guy who will arrive in 3 years over prospects who can help the franchise right away. Maybe if Michkov would have played the U20 and outscored Bedard as he did at the U18, we could have talked about him going second (or even 1OA). But it wouldn’t be possible to sell Michkovs 20 KHL points to NA audience to justify the pick. Everything after the top 3 were simply brainfarts from the GMs. And I do believe that at least the Jackets will regret the Fantilli pick, but back then you really couldn’t do otherwise but draft the three over Mich.

The bolded is an interesting dilemma for me in sports, in which the goals of a GM aren't necessarily in alignment with the goals of a franchise. GMs want to produce short-term results, or the appearance of results, and keep their jobs. And this sometimes leads to suboptimal decisions in the long-term.

It's how you get George McPhee trading Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat, or an NFL GM taking the 5th best QB following a run on the position instead of a lineman who will provide a decade of pro-bowl level protection.

And since a lot of GMs can't seem to reliably outperform the poll section of this site, maybe we should just scrap the position altogether and let AI do it.

 

[MrGuyPerson]

The russian top prospects all come to NA, at least i can't think of anyone who didnt.

Alexei Cherepanov. In fairness to your overall point though, being Russian is not what prevented him from playing in the NHL. R.I.P. Alexei

 

[MrGuyPerson]

Winger Crosby in the OZ...

I recently came up with comp and would like to know what others think of it.

Currently I would say his game is like a hybrid of Crosby and Matthew Tkachuk.

Part of the reason I'm a little wary of him switching to a work out reg that focuses on adding speed is I am not sure it is a good idea to sacrifice him being a tank. More speed could benefit his transition and skill play, but The Tank build he is currently in allows him to utilize the Tkachuk-ian skillset and make an impact in the dirty areas a lot young skills guys typically do not fare all that well in.

Also this isn't really related to your post, but some people are still chirping his defense. I have been watching him play since he was 16 and this is the best I have seen him play defensively ever. Is he performing at Selke level? No, but he is 19 and defense has never been his best attribute. Expecting him to perform better defensively than the very solid job he is currently doing seems pretty unfair. If he plays defense at the level he currently has been all season I think the likelihood that he ends this season a dash 50 like Bedard or even a dash 20+ like early Hughes and Stutzle is borderline 0. Yeah he flew the zone in OT. It was 3 on 3 man. If that leads to goal against in 5 on 5 we can talk about the poor decision a bit more about it, but pointing to that play in OT feels like begging for anything negative to nitpick

 

[ViD]

To this day there’s still no credible evidence Michkov expressed no desire to play for Montreal.

For all we know, the Habs relied on their Russian scout opinion and made a deliberate decision to not draft him.

 

[FlyguyOX]

To this day there’s still no credible evidence Michkov expressed no desire to play for Montreal.

For all we know, the Habs relied on their Russian scout opinion and made a deliberate decision to not draft him.

It will be a misnomer propagated until the end of time.

 

[SomeDude]

To this day there’s still no credible evidence Michkov expressed no desire to play for Montreal.

For all we know, the Habs relied on their Russian scout opinion and made a deliberate decision to not draft him.

Don’t let the truth get in the way of a good excuse.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

As a GM I would have drafted Bedard, Fantilli and Carlsson before Michkov. The hype about this guys was simply to big. Even as a diehard Michkov fan, with the expectations the fans had I would lose my job almost immediately after the draft for drafting a guy who will arrive in 3 years over prospects who can help the franchise right away. Maybe if Michkov would have played the U20 and outscored Bedard as he did at the U18, we could have talked about him going second (or even 1OA). But it wouldn’t be possible to sell Michkovs 20 KHL points to NA audience to justify the pick. Everything after the top 3 were simply brainfarts from the GMs. And I do believe that at least the Jackets will regret the Fantilli pick, but back then you really couldn’t do otherwise but draft the three over Mich.

20 pts in 27 games . A very different perspective when you account for games played . That’s an outstanding total for a draft eligible player .

Alexei Cherepanov. In fairness to your overall point though, being Russian is not what prevented him from playing in the NHL. R.I.P. Alexei

So your prime example is a dead guy ? Odd take

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Don’t let the truth get in the way of a good excuse.

Grasping at straws trying to wrap their head around the Reinbacher pic .

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Grasping at straws trying to wrap their head around the Reinbacher pic .

Its only habs fans who invented that rumour to cope , management never said that.

The reasons they did give for passing on him are just as dumb tho

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Its only habs fans who invented that rumour to cope , management never said that.

The reasons they did give for passing on him are just as dumb tho

If I remember correctly Lapointe said the contract / unsure nature of when he was coming over in addition to his play away from the puck were the rational behind going another direction . The rest ( problem teammate / picking his team etc ) is totally unfounded .

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

If I remember correctly Lapointe said the contract / unsure nature of when he was coming over in addition to his play away from the puck were the rational behind going another direction . The rest ( problem teammate / picking his team etc ) is totally unfounded .

Yeah basically his size and two way play were into question and something about not having another small player in the top 6 which is crazy because Michkov is probably going to be better than Caufield. I wonder if management regrets the decision , some of these GM's can be pretty hard headed. All is forgiven of course if the guy we took helps the team compete but until then its gonna be question marks all around on why we passed on him for sure

 

[Hockeypete49]

I get it, he's your guy. But getting salty at legitimate criticism doesn't change the fact that he blew it.. He can play responsibly 98% of the time, but if the time he chooses to peel off is when Draisaitl is flying down the middle of the ice on his way to an OT winner, then he needs to be held responsible.

FYI, I've watched most of Philly's games against Calgary and Edmonton, and bits of the game against Vancouver. Considering that encompasses Michkov's entire career so far, your assertion couldn't be any more false. This is his first error that cost them a game, but again, we're only 3 games in. If you want to make the argument that the good outweighs the bad, I'll listen, but if you're going to pretend that there is no bad, well, keep your head in the sand if that's what you want to do - it's your life.

#6 cost them the game.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Yeah basically his size and two way play were into question and something about not having another small player in the top 6 which is crazy because Michkov is probably going to be better than Caufield. I wonder if management regrets the decision , some of these GM's can be pretty hard headed. All is forgiven of course if the guy we took helps the team compete but until then its gonna be question marks all around on why we passed on him for sure

Additionally he’s a lot bigger than Caufield . Is 5’10 190 really that small in today’s nhl ( I understand he weighed less during his draft year but he’s not a Smurf) ?

 

[HanSolo]

The thread has moved on to the barganing stage of depression after putting so many unrelistic expectations and pressure on this kid. Preseason and Russian hockey are totally different thatn what he is experiencing now.

In his defense, not being able to play against the best of his peers has hurt his development. I sitll think sometime in the AHL would do him so good.

FR. Like I don't get it. I'm a self admitted Leo Carlsson homer and even I'm unable to deny Michkov's gifts and am left scratching my head at all this microanalysis and the bizarre expectations being heaped onto the kid. Like this is his first few games playing in a much tougher league on a much smaller ice surface. In a context like this you have to look at the elements of his game that demonstrate future success, not look at his errors and make sweeping generalizations about how he projects out into the future or how he compares to other top U-23s. He's still figuring things out.

But from what I've seen, I have no qualms in thinking that he was a first overall quality prospect available in his draft and has the tools to be a superstar in this league. What level of superstar remains to be seen, but his talents and future potential are extremely evident to me.

 

[MrGuyPerson]

So your prime example is a dead guy ? Odd take

I am actually confused how to interpret your tone. If I am not misreading it, I am pretty certain you misread the tone of my post. From my perspective it seems there is a chance you are interpreting that because I quoted a portion of a post that was overall discussing the Russian factor, that my post was in someway taking a stance or voicing any kind of opinion on it.

In case this what you mean I should clarify, my post was responding to only what was quoted. The poster said they couldn't think of top Russian prospect that did not come. I provided a factual response. Not sure how that is viewed as an "odd take". I even included that the reason he did not come over was because he died. Unless you think I was trying to say drafting Russians means an increased risk of getting a kid year old that dies mid game? That would indeed be an odd take as I don't think that is remotely applicable to the "The Russian Factor".