RW/LW Vasili Podkolzin - SKA-Neva St.Petersburg, VHL (2019, 10th, VAN)

[Caser]

Shouldn't this be concerning? Most these other guys have played at least as many games so far.

Well, it's not only just about the number of games. Again, if we look at it in details, his season started in late June with a rather big training camp before the Hlinka's and also there have been smaller training camps before other internationall tournaments as well. And since one of the goals of these camps is to get a boost of physicality for the tournament, those are also containing some heavy workloads. Particularly I think that the sequence of pre-WJAC camp->WJAC->pre-WJC camp->WJC was the exhausting one.

 

[OldScool]

Just didnt do enough for me to rank him in top 20. Too many question marks at this point. Best vs Best he didnt stick out or produce enough to be that high of a pick IMO.

 

[BlackEye from Xhekaj]

Just didnt do enough for me to rank him in top 20. Too many question marks at this point. Best vs Best he didnt stick out or produce enough to be that high of a pick IMO.

Top 20? Come on now. A month ago he was a top 3-6 pick.. after one 7 game tournament he drops outside of the top 20?

He was on his what, 7th team of the season? I'm pretty sure it can be justified that fatigue had set in for the 17 year old kid.

 

[jibbz]

Pod will easily go top 5, no doubt about it

 

[thelittlecoon]

Pod will easily go top 5, no doubt about it

I think he'll go top 5 too but I'm praying he drops

 

[ijuka]

Top 20? Come on now. A month ago he was a top 3-6 pick.. after one 7 game tournament he drops outside of the top 20?

He was on his what, 7th team of the season? I'm pretty sure it can be justified that fatigue had set in for the 17 year old kid.

No, not just one 7 game tournament. When has he played well enough to be a top 20 pick? The answer is, only at Hlinka. The rest of his season has been mediocre.

The question is, why should a 5 game sample size be worth more than the rest of the season?

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Pod will drop, no doubt about that, if i had to guess i say he goes between 6-9.

 

[jvr32]

No, not just one 7 game tournament. When has he played well enough to be a top 20 pick? The answer is, only at Hlinka. The rest of his season has been mediocre.

The question is, why should a 5 game sample size be worth more than the rest of the season?

He also did well at the WJAC, and 7 games at the WJC didn't do any harm to his #3 ranking either. Not only Hlinka.

 

[archimet]

Steve Yzerman answering questions about Podkolzin after watching him in person at the WJAC:

Question: I’m fishing here a bit in your draft range but watching Podkolzin advance — he’s a wild card. You don’t know when you’re going to get him to the NHL (since he’s under contract in the KHL). How do you weigh the risk?

Yzerman: "What’s the risk?"

Later, Yzerman again: "He’s a really good player. He’s a really good player. He’s a good one."

Question: His status doesn’t scare you off?

Yzerman: "It hasn’t in the past. The really good Russian players all come over. Maybe they wait a year, two years, but eventually you get them. (Evgeny) Kuznetsov, (Vladimir) Tarasenko, Vasilevskiy. (Nikita) Kucherov waited a year. The really good ones are coming over. You have to be prepared, potentially, to wait. I don’t really know what his contract status is."
​

I think Steve Yzerman knows a good player when he sees one. He won't fall far, if he falls at all.

See the article in 'The Athletic" (subscription required)

 

[OldScool]

Top 20? Come on now. A month ago he was a top 3-6 pick.. after one 7 game tournament he drops outside of the top 20?

He was on his what, 7th team of the season? I'm pretty sure it can be justified that fatigue had set in for the 17 year old kid.

Hlinka he was excellent but keep in mind thats not best on best. 8 goals in his Russian league games.....20 goals all season...poor U18 Worlds production. Its just not enough of a sample for me to take a top 20 pick on him. Blame it on injuries, travel, 7 teams, Russian factor of not coming over or whatever but the bottom line for me is he didnt produce enough for me to say he is a lock top pick. Too many question marks. If I am sitting in the war room and I am picking in the top 5 is there enough there to say he is the 5th best player in this draft? I dont think so. Is he top 10? Still dont think so. There are safer picks at those spots.

 

[Peasy]

Steve Yzerman answering questions about Podkolzin after watching him in person at the WJAC:

Question: I’m fishing here a bit in your draft range but watching Podkolzin advance — he’s a wild card. You don’t know when you’re going to get him to the NHL (since he’s under contract in the KHL). How do you weigh the risk?

Yzerman: "What’s the risk?"

Later, Yzerman again: "He’s a really good player. He’s a really good player. He’s a good one."

Question: His status doesn’t scare you off?

Yzerman: "It hasn’t in the past. The really good Russian players all come over. Maybe they wait a year, two years, but eventually you get them. (Evgeny) Kuznetsov, (Vladimir) Tarasenko, Vasilevskiy. (Nikita) Kucherov waited a year. The really good ones are coming over. You have to be prepared, potentially, to wait. I don’t really know what his contract status is."
​

I think Steve Yzerman knows a good player when he sees one. He won't fall far, if he falls at all.

See the article in 'The Athletic" (subscription required)

Meh, Tampa was notoriously bad at drafting in the first round under Yzerman.

 

[Jacob]

Is Podkolzin expected to be in the KHL full time next season or no?

 

[Peasy]

Is Podkolzin expected to be in the KHL full time next season or no?

Dunno about the KHL but he has two more years on his deal with SKA.

 

[BlackEye from Xhekaj]

Hlinka he was excellent but keep in mind thats not best on best. 8 goals in his Russian league games.....20 goals all season...poor U18 Worlds production. Its just not enough of a sample for me to take a top 20 pick on him. Blame it on injuries, travel, 7 teams, Russian factor of not coming over or whatever but the bottom line for me is he didnt produce enough for me to say he is a lock top pick. Too many question marks. If I am sitting in the war room and I am picking in the top 5 is there enough there to say he is the 5th best player in this draft? I dont think so. Is he top 10? Still dont think so. There are safer picks at those spots.

Safer picks absolutely.. but his potential upside outweighs safe in my books. Looking at say Cozens.. you're safely looking at an NHL player (whether that's a 3C or a 1C is yet to be determined.. but he's a safe bet to make it). Turcotte/Dach are safe North American players that you know want to be in the NHL asap. Does that mean that I'd take them over Podkolzin.. personally no, but the argument can be made.

I don't think he'll go 3rd, but I'm the top 10 for sure.

Hughes
Kakko
Dach
Turcotte
Byram
Podkolzin
Zegras
Cozens

Not specifically in that order.. but those are the top 8 players I'd take. Caufield, Boldy, Krebs, Newhook are all good, and maybe safe in terms of being North American.. but I easily take Pods before any of them. Probably 5th or 6th at this point.

 

[OldScool]

Safer picks absolutely.. but his potential upside outweighs safe in my books. Looking at say Cozens.. you're safely looking at an NHL player (whether that's a 3C or a 1C is yet to be determined.. but he's a safe bet to make it). Turcotte/Dach are safe North American players that you know want to be in the NHL asap. Does that mean that I'd take them over Podkolzin.. personally no, but the argument can be made.

I don't think he'll go 3rd, but I'm the top 10 for sure.

Hughes
Kakko
Dach
Turcotte
Byram
Podkolzin
Zegras
Cozens

Not specifically in that order.. but those are the top 8 players I'd take. Caufield, Boldy, Krebs, Newhook are all good, and maybe safe in terms of being North American.. but I easily take Pods before any of them. Probably 5th or 6th at this point.

I get it. I saw him at Hlinka and was very impressed but havent seen him like that since. He seems like a boom or bust pick and if I have a top 10 pick I want a safer pick that has a better chance of producing at the NHL level. Maybe a player with not as high ceiling as Podz but also a higher floor than Podz. Caufield had 70+ goals this season...Podz had 20...type thinking.

 

[tigervixxxen]

He also did well at the WJAC, and 7 games at the WJC didn't do any harm to his #3 ranking either. Not only Hlinka.

Yeah this is conveniently forgotten. He tied for the tourney lead with 8 points in 6 games at the WJAC.

There's also never been a mythical standard set for this MHL production that he's supposed to achieve. 8 points and 6 goals in 12 games in which 75% of that occurred in September is somehow is so terrible it's a cross he has to bear for the rest of his career. He even had the magical PPG in the playoffs with 3 points and 2 goals in 3 games!

As far as the U18, I'd rather have the guy who damn near won the gold medal himself than the guys who padded stats in garbage time and on the pp against weak opponents. But sure, if you want your team to refuse to take a guy because he didn't get 5 points against Slovakia then fine, never mind he had 11 SOG against Belarus and shot 3% at the tourney.

Podkolzin has questions to answer like all the other prospects do but the ridiculous narratives that follow him around primarily because he didn't spend the year in a traditional system with one team and holds a passport which is considered scary and a risk are unfortunate.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Yeah this is conveniently forgotten. He tied for the tourney lead with 8 points in 6 games at the WJAC.

There's also never been a mythical standard set for this MHL production that he's supposed to achieve. 8 points and 6 goals in 12 games in which 75% of that occurred in September is somehow is so terrible it's a cross he has to bear for the rest of his career. He even had the magical PPG in the playoffs with 3 points and 2 goals in 3 games!

As far as the U18, I'd rather have the guy who damn near won the gold medal himself than the guys who padded stats in garbage time and on the pp against weak opponents. But sure, if you want your team to refuse to take a guy because he didn't get 5 points against Slovakia then fine, never mind he had 11 SOG against Belarus and shot 3% at the tourney.

Podkolzin has questions to answer like all the other prospects do but the ridiculous narratives that follow him around primarily because he didn't spend the year in a traditional system with one team and holds a passport which is considered scary and a risk are unfortunate.

Do you want Colorado to pick Podkolzin at 4?

 

[docbenton]

I watched one of his VHL games and I thought he was very good, always around the puck and made plays, looked quick and dangerous. Also scored a goal which doesn't hurt. I imagine actual scouts watched him play in Russia and liked what they saw also, which contributed to his high ranking throughout the season, not just because of Hlinka.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Do you want Colorado to pick Podkolzin at 4?

I do

 

[SotasicA]

I think Steve Yzerman knows a good player when he sees one

Except he doesn't.

 

[Rico Suave]

i would say more top 10,dont see him going top 5

 

[zharkenby]

Except he doesn't.

Please elaborate ...

 

[d rake]

Please elaborate ...

In terms of high picks under Yzerman Tampa wasn't great (They were great in the later rounds however were talking about immediate top end talent).

They picked Koekkoek, Drouin, and Connolly within the top 10 (where Podkolzin could go).

They were really only great in the later parts of the draft.

Vasilevskiy was a tremendous pick however.

 

[BlackEye from Xhekaj]

In terms of high picks under Yzerman Tampa wasn't great (They were great in the later rounds however were talking about immediate top end talent).

They picked Koekkoek, Drouin, and Connolly within the top 10 (where Podkolzin could go).

They were really only great in the later parts of the draft.

Vasilevskiy was a tremendous pick however.

Anybody would have taken Drouin and Connolly in the top 10. Drouin isn't a bad pick at all.

 

[Goulet17]

Do you want Colorado to pick Podkolzin at 4?

Personally, I am ambivalent. I have come around on any wait for Podkolzin and the so-called Russian factor. I think most of the prospects after Hughes-Kakko are likely best served not playing in the NHL for a couple of years in any event.

I do have a positional bias that high in the draft toward centers and defensemen, rather than wingers. The Avs have also drafted a number of wingers in the first round recently (Rantanen, Kaut, and perhaps even Jost). I think that catches up with an organization eventually.

I know that Podkolzin had a disappointing U18 in terms of offensive production, but he had some positive moments and he was excellent in the the gold medal game against Sweden.

The Avs have seemingly been successful in terms of their first round draft picks in recent years, so I would definitively give them the benefit of the doubt.