RW Bruno Osmanis - IF Björklöven, HockeyAllsvenskan (2025 Draft)

[Eye of Ra]

There is a small difference between Latvian and Slovakian in terms of how the scouts look at them, since, well, both countries simply suck at the NHL level currently. This is why just by the logic of probability, a NHL team will draft a no-name Swede (~70 NHLers) out of the swedish u18 league, but not the Latvian who might objectively be the better player.

A country has more NHLers - > the junior gets a slight edge. I also remember how TSN undervalued slovak teams on WJC, but things changed after the famous drafts, beating USA and playing close games with Canada.

Claiming that if Osmanis was slovak would dramatically help his draft stock is extremely unfortunate and funny at the same time. Out of all, you pricked the country that has the exact same problem as you thing Latvia is having. We ALWAYS get less drafted players that we expect (no, it is not homer-ism), because NHL teams just do not like drafting them. That is the truth. Instead of a player that should get drafted, we see waves of random Swedes and Czechs. in the late round of course. So in case of this problem, I would merge Latvia and Slovakia into the same category. Even the ranking that you were basing on has our best prospect in 4th-5th round.

Osmanis's problem is that he plays on a weak team, so it is harder to get noticead and also has not done anything that special yet apart from the respectable Allsvenskan production. If he manages to keep up with this production and has a good WJC, he will get ranked higher. For now though I'd rank him at least a 4-5th round prospect

High iq post

 

[Namejs]

There is a small difference between Latvian and Slovakian in terms of how the scouts look at them, since, well, both countries simply suck at the NHL level currently. This is why just by the logic of probability, a NHL team will draft a no-name Swede (~70 NHLers) out of the swedish u18 league, but not the Latvian who might objectively be the better player.

A country has more NHLers - > the junior gets a slight edge. I also remember how TSN undervalued slovak teams on WJC, but things changed after the famous drafts, beating USA and playing close games with Canada.

Claiming that if Osmanis was slovak would dramatically help his draft stock is extremely unfortunate and funny at the same time. Out of all, you pricked the country that has the exact same problem as you thing Latvia is having. We ALWAYS get less drafted players that we expect (no, it is not homer-ism), because NHL teams just do not like drafting them. That is the truth. Instead of a player that should get drafted, we see waves of random Swedes and Czechs. in the late round of course. So in case of this problem, I would merge Latvia and Slovakia into the same category. Even the ranking that you were basing on has our best prospect in 4th-5th round.

Osmanis's problem is that he plays on a weak team, so it is harder to get noticead and also has not done anything that special yet apart from the respectable Allsvenskan production. If he manages to keep up with this production and has a good WJC, he will get ranked higher. For now though I'd rank him at least a 4-5th round prospect

Not sure how I missed all of these golden nuggets!

Let's start by undressing the first one.

Your first point about 'logic of probability' is pure conjecture not based on reality. B tier prospects don't always even get the chance to play for Sweden at WJC. If you look up their WJC roster, it's all draftees and some role players. They have so much depth they can choose and pick, shape their roster to their liking with tactics in mind, lefties, righties, all of that sweet stuff.

If you're a Swedish B- tier prospect and you don't make the national team, you might be buried in J20 Nationell with a few Allsvenskan (or even Hockeyettan) games under your belt on the 4th line on a shoddy team. To imply that you would magically have better draft stocks than a Slovakian with 14 points in 7 WJC games is completely absurd and incorrect.

And who the hell gets drafted from the Swedish U18 league? No one gets drafted from the J18s. That alone proves you're just making up stuff as you go.

My little '#10' comment was clearly sarcastic. It went wooosh over everyone's head. Do you think I believe Osmanis is a No. 10 pick in this draft class? Are you insane?

I have went through this multiple times and this part is getting a little boring. You guys don't learn. This has nothing to do with Slovakia. Slovakia is simply in that sweet spot where their depth of players is limited but good enough to make a deeper play-off run from time to time.

Instead of Slovakia it could be any other country in those same type of circumstances. It could be Norway, Latvia or Kyrzbekistan. It just so happens that Slovakia is currently in that spot where they get overhyped every 5 years or so. It has nothing to do with Slovakia. The cognitive bias is blind and does not see.

Also, as for Osmanis, he has an elite set of mittens and reminds me a lot of Balcers. Slightly undersized dangly forwards have to really showcase themselves to get picked in the top 2 rounds, but I am confident that Osmanis will not drop below the 3rd.

 

[kudla]

Not sure how I missed all of these golden nuggets!

Let's start by undressing the first one.

Your first point about 'logic of probability' is pure conjecture not based on reality. B tier prospects don't always even get the chance to play for Sweden at WJC. If you look up their WJC roster, it's all draftees and some role players. They have so much depth they can choose and pick, shape their roster to their liking with tactics in mind, lefties, righties, all of that sweet stuff.

If you're a Swedish B- tier prospect and you don't make the national team, you might be buried in J20 Nationell with a few Allsvenskan (or even Hockeyettan) games under your belt on the 4th line on a shoddy team. To imply that you would magically have better draft stocks than a Slovakian with 14 points in 7 WJC games is completely absurd and incorrect.

And who the hell gets drafted from the Swedish U18 league? No one gets drafted from the J18s. That alone proves you're just making up stuff as you go.

My little '#10' comment was clearly sarcastic. It went wooosh over everyone's head. Do you think I believe Osmanis is a No. 10 pick in this draft class? Are you insane?

I have went through this multiple times and this part is getting a little boring. You guys don't learn. This has nothing to do with Slovakia. Slovakia is simply in that sweet spot where their depth of players is limited but good enough to make a deeper play-off run from time to time.

Instead of Slovakia it could be any other country in those same type of circumstances. It could be Norway, Latvia or Kyrzbekistan. It just so happens that Slovakia is currently in that spot where they get overhyped every 5 years or so. It has nothing to do with Slovakia. The cognitive bias is blind and does not see.

Also, as for Osmanis, he has an elite set of mittens and reminds me a lot of Balcers. Slightly undersized dangly forwards have to really showcase themselves to get picked in the top 2 rounds, but I am confident that Osmanis will not drop below the 3rd.

All I was trying to say is that if you have 2 prospects that are roughly on same level - one being from Slovakia/Latvia/anyone near this tier and the other one from Sweden, the Swede has the better chance to be drafted.
Or even if the player is better that the Swede and worthy a 5-7th round pick, NHL team might rather choose someone with average stats in swedish, finnish or whatever league. Of course that someone who is dominating the WJC, as you said, will not have a smaller chance to get drafted than some B prospect. Not sure why I even have to explain this.

 

[Namejs]

He could be a 2-4th round probably. Clearly a talent worth mentioning. Thing is, you exaggerate very often.
You are good at problematizing when comparing how you, yourself would see and think regarding Estonian prospects for an example. But the thing is you go all the way and handle these scenarios with a complete black or white perspective in your eagerness of making a point. Also, you seem to think or believe that everyone else would share your subjective thoughts about prospects or other things.

You did the same with Vilmanis. I get it, Latvia are finally producing some interesting talent and that's fun. But you come off as bitter when, and cynical with your statements with a bit too much of this or the highway kind of reasoning. Which makes it difficult to take you serious. Have a good one.

Edit: Also, last but not least. Murnieks is a clear and good example of you being wrong. Very interesting prospect and he's already known and recognized since way back and he will most likely be a 1-2 rounder. And why then? Because of his own talent, career decisions and performances. With decisions I mean what? Of course the fact he went to NA or left Latvia because most likely there aren't competition enough for him to take the next step there. You need to evaluate, see and take your opportunities as well and he did. Good for him.
Whilst you on the other hand? Reason in a way like everything should be served for you (him) in some strange way... Very rare does anything work like that in a result oriented world. And if does, then it's because of corruption.

He is a 2nd to 4th round prospect, correct. Currently underrated due to systemic bias and could be ridiculously overrated if Latvia medals in the U18s and he racks up a dozen points.

Glad we agree on that.

The rest of the post is really cringey, but let's dissect it anyway.

What is the NHL draft? Effectively, it's a collective, quantifiable assessment of a specific pool of hockey players in a given age cohort.

Being assessed (i.e., drafted) does not promise anyone anything. Being assessed incorrectly can be a big deal, but usually it's not, as long as you get into that top 225 or w/e. Sometimes, though, being drafted lower brings you down in the pecking order to the point of it affecting your chances of even having a shot at proving yourself. Sometimes you don't even get drafted, and that can be a big deal for your future career.

Osmanis will get drafted and he will have a shot at proving himself. So being underrated is not really that big of a deal in his case.

What rocks my boat is how obvious the systemic bias is and how oblivious a lot of hfboards regulars are about it. NHL franchises are not effective at making player selections in the lower rounds and some players get so overhyped it's ridiculous. There's literally nothing black or white about this, it's a multi-factorial issue with a whole array of biases skewing the player selections in one way or the other.

The WJC/U18 thing is just one of many such biases. Some of the more popular ones concern size, date of birth, etc.

I have no idea how Vilmanis relates to any of this. Vilmanis is not underrated, he just has an ELC, so it's not financially wise for the Panthers to get someone waived because of him. He clearly would have already played for the Panthers if he had a one-way contract. A Latvian defenceman literally played 4th line wing a number of games for them just now because of it.

As for Murnieks, again, I have no idea what you're trying to tell me. Honestly, no clue. Was that supposed to be a jab at me? You're just talking random weird shit by this point. Can you rephrase that part and maybe present a coherent argument about, well, anything? What is the point you're trying to counter?

Every single Latvian prospect leaves Latvia early, usually earlier than 16. Every single one.

Everything should be served for him? Corruption? What the f***.

 

[Namejs]

All I was trying to say is that if you have 2 prospects that are roughly on same level - one being from Slovakia/Latvia/anyone near this tier and the other one from Sweden, the Swede has the better chance to be drafted.
Or even if the player is better that the Swede and worthy a 5-7th round pick, NHL team might rather choose someone with average stats in swedish, finnish or whatever league. Of course that someone who is dominating the WJC, as you said, will not have a smaller chance to get drafted than some B prospect. Not sure why I even have to explain this.

Can you list 5 examples of that happening?

 

[kudla]

Can you list 5 examples of that happening?

Off the top of my head, Samuel Bucek, Oliver Okuliar, Marko Stacha, Niks Fenenko had a decent chance to get drafted considering their club, international showings and physical attributes. Even a guy like Darels Uljanskis despite being drafted in 7th, was on a no-draft list for at least 22 NHL teams. I am not gonna list the players I think were worse than them in their draft years, you can search for them in every draft, It won't take long if you begin from the last round.

 

[SoundAndFury]

At least on paper, on the 1st line today and with assist already.

 

[Vikz]

At least on paper, on the 1st line today and with assist already.

And on a goal of none other than former Dinamo Riga quarterback Mathew Maione. I just love it when you check a random game scoresheet because of one player, and find other familiar names. Had no idea he still plays in a competent league, good for him.

 

[Namejs]

Off the top of my head, Samuel Bucek, Oliver Okuliar, Marko Stacha, Niks Fenenko had a decent chance to get drafted considering their club, international showings and physical attributes. Even a guy like Darels Uljanskis despite being drafted in 7th, was on a no-draft list for at least 22 NHL teams. I am not gonna list the players I think were worse than them in their draft years, you can search for them in every draft, It won't take long if you begin from the last round.

Sorry, buddy, that's not how this works.

You countered my point and made an entire deal about *Swedish* prospects being overrated and being drafted straight out of U18s. None of the players you named are Swedish. None of them fit any of the criteria you mentioned.

I did not ask you for underrated Latvian or Slovakian prospects. I asked you to back up your claims with facts and evidence. You have provided none so far.

As for the players you listed, Bucek went 0.61 PPG in the Q as a winger. Q is the highest scoring and the weakest of CHL leagues and it is not uncommon for PPG players not to get drafted out of there. Same for Okuliar.

I have no idea why Stacha should have been drafted.

Fenenko scored at a higher rate than both of the Slovakian forwards. As a prototypical shutdown defenceman. He doesn't belong with the rest of them there.

 

[Namejs]

At least on paper, on the 1st line today and with assist already.

I watched most of the game, Osmanis seems to be getting a tiny bit more ice time, but this was no 1st line duty. 7 minutes of ice time.

5 points in 9 games with about 5 minutes of ice time on average. That's a pretty crazy stat sheet considering usage.

 

[kudla]

Sorry, buddy, that's not how this works.

You countered my point and made an entire deal about *Swedish* prospects being overrated and being drafted straight out of U18s. None of the players you named are Swedish. None of them fit any of the criteria you mentioned.

I did not ask you for underrated Latvian or Slovakian prospects. I asked you to back up your claims with facts and evidence. You have provided none so far.

As for the players you listed, Bucek went 0.61 PPG in the Q as a winger. Q is the highest scoring and the weakest of CHL leagues and it is not uncommon for PPG players not to get drafted out of there. Same for Okuliar.

I have no idea why Stacha should have been drafted.

Fenenko scored at a higher rate than both of the Slovakian forwards. As a prototypical shutdown defenceman. He doesn't belong with the rest of them there.

I think my point is evident and clear. Even you have to understand that I was referring to the top 6 countries, not only Sweden, which was just an example. And the U18 was an overstatement, yes, but you get the idea. I never meant to say some prospects are overrated, but preferred. Put it that way. At this point I am done with this conversation.