RW Bruno Osmanis - IF Björklöven, HockeyAllsvenskan (2025 Draft)

SoundAndFury

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May 28, 2012
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First Allsvenskan point today. 8 minutes of ice time but still, the kid just turned 17.

Becomes the third 2025-eligible draftee to record a point in the league this season.
 
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kayhud

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I’m very, very high on Osmanis. He’s one of my top under the radar breakout picks and I could see him going early first round or late second round if his season goes well.

He may be undersized but his hockey IQ and speed leave him with a tremendous upside.
 
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Vikz

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Dec 26, 2021
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I’m very, very high on Osmanis. He’s one of my top under the radar breakout picks and I could see him going early first round or late second round if his season goes well.

He may be undersized but his hockey IQ and speed leave him with a tremendous upside.
Have You seen him play? I admit - I haven't seen him a lot. But just by statwatching, I'm not as optimistic.

First of all, he is December - born. Which means that he will be significantly older than most other draftees, and, while it may give him an edge during the season, more will be expected from him.
This also means that he will not be able to participate in the upcoming U18 worlds - that's one less highly scouted tournament for him to participate in.
His last U18 worlds were this spring, and it wasn't anything special - 2 points in 5 games is even less, that Murnieks's 3 points, who is actually a projected middle first round pick. But Murnieks is 1.5 years younger.
His size also may also be a concern.

On the other hand, he already sniffed Allsvenskan, and if he is able to build on this success, spend a full season there and score come points, this will definitely help. Allsvenskan is a really good and highly scouted league, and, lets say, 0.25 ppg might get him in to top 3 rounds in the draft.
Its also good that his U20 team, apparently, got promoted to J20 Nationel. Which means that even if something does not click in the main team, he will still play in one of the best, and also highly scouted junior league.

Dont get me wrong, he is a really good prospect by Latvian standards. We had only two top 100 selections in the last 10 years, and he definitely has top 100 potential, especially if he puts on some weight and scores some points in Allsvenskan. But first - second round? Doubt that.
 
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Kalv

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Have You seen him play? I admit - I haven't seen him a lot. But just by statwatching, I'm not as optimistic.

First of all, he is December - born. Which means that he will be significantly older than most other draftees, and, while it may give him an edge during the season, more will be expected from him.
This also means that he will not be able to participate in the upcoming U18 worlds - that's one less highly scouted tournament for him to participate in.
His last U18 worlds were this spring, and it wasn't anything special - 2 points in 5 games is even less, that Murnieks's 3 points, who is actually a projected middle first round pick. But Murnieks is 1.5 years younger.
His size also may also be a concern.

On the other hand, he already sniffed Allsvenskan, and if he is able to build on this success, spend a full season there and score come points, this will definitely help. Allsvenskan is a really good and highly scouted league, and, lets say, 0.25 ppg might get him in to top 3 rounds in the draft.
Its also good that his U20 team, apparently, got promoted to J20 Nationel. Which means that even if something does not click in the main team, he will still play in one of the best, and also highly scouted junior league.

Dont get me wrong, he is a really good prospect by Latvian standards. We had only two top 100 selections in the last 10 years, and he definitely has top 100 potential, especially if he puts on some weight and scores some points in Allsvenskan. But first - second round? Doubt that.
I don't get your logic. December born is not "significantly" older than others. It's just not. It's mostly the perception because of U18/U20 ineligibility but it's just a bit earlier than most prospects which seem to be jan-apr born.

And sure he will miss U18 but he should get a glimpse in U20 which is highly scouted as well.

Not sure about his potential in the draft but I don't see him being at a disadvantage or anything
 

SoundAndFury

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Dont get me wrong, he is a really good prospect by Latvian standards. We had only two top 100 selections in the last 10 years, and he definitely has top 100 potential, especially if he puts on some weight and scores some points in Allsvenskan. But first - second round? Doubt that.
As with most prospects before the draft year, these projections can be wrong (someone like Bruno Idzan who fell off the cliff and then some) but at this point, if Osmanis can produce double digits (or close to it) in points in the Allsvenskan, which seems possible if not likely, he is your prototypical high-scoring undersized offensive winger that goes in the late first or (more likely) early 2nd round.

Even the part about adding weight, while to most kids that age it happens naturally, is very much secondary. Strength is not really the tool that ultimately makes him successful.

"Latvian prospect who is highly touted despite not possessing the physique of a woodcutter? Not possible" :laugh: Hey, once in 30 years someone just might be talented enough.
 
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Vikz

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if Osmanis can produce double digits (or close to it) in points in the Allsvenskan, which seems possible if not likely, he is your prototypical high-scoring undersized offensive winger that goes in the late first or (more likely) early 2nd round.
The problem for me is that I haven't seen this "high-scoring offensive winger" yet. Sure, even playing in Allsvenskan in D-1 year is a fantastic result, but having 1 assist in 15 games does not show his offensive potential. As well as his 2 points in 5 games in the last U18 worlds.

Plus, in both J20 and J18 leagues he was playing in the second tier. As I see it, if he is such an offensive threat, he should have produced better than 1 ppg in J18 Region, which is a tier bellow Nationel and where other players are at most a year older than him. His results in J20 were much better, but there is still not a single drafted player found in the top 100 scorers of this league.

If we compare him to Brandsegg-Nygard, he already had 3 points in twice less games in Allsvenskan at the same age, plus 1 ppg + in J20 Nationel. In his draft year, Brandsegg-Nygard had 5 points in the WC and 0.5 ppg in Allsvenskan. All this while being a 95 kg power forward. I know that nobody in their sound mind would compare those two, but I just dont see Osmanis being only slightly (10-20 draft positions) worse than Brandsegg-Nygard.

Osmanis is yet to produce at any level higher than Swedish 2nd tier juniors, and that's not good when producing is his main strength.
 
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kudla

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As with most prospects before the draft year, these projections can be wrong (someone like Bruno Idzan who fell off the cliff and then some) but at this point, if Osmanis can produce double digits (or close to it) in points in the Allsvenskan, which seems possible if not likely, he is your prototypical high-scoring undersized offensive winger that goes in the late first or (more likely) early 2nd round.

Even the part about adding weight, while to most kids that age it happens naturally, is very much secondary. Strength is not really the tool that ultimately makes him successful.

"Latvian prospect who is highly touted despite not possessing the physique of a woodcutter? Not possible" :laugh: Hey, once in 30 years someone just might be talented enough.
I'd doubt it.
 

SoundAndFury

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Osmanis is yet to produce at any level higher than Swedish 2nd tier juniors, and that's not good when producing is his main strength.
Certainly, this is a showcase season for him and as I mentioned in the earlier post, a lot depends on projection. Just like on draft day, some people see it, others don't. I agree that your concerns are completely valid but at the same time, there are reasons explaining more or less all of it.
 
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Namejs

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He did stand out at the U18s and I remember going "oh, this guy's good" while being fixated on every move Murnieks made who was centering him.

But I never realized he's so highly tauted by some. It does make sense, but 2nd round to early 3rd would be more realistic.

I can't wait to see how he does in Allsvenskan. Especially after reading this thread.
 

kayhud

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Jun 9, 2024
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Have You seen him play? I admit - I haven't seen him a lot. But just by statwatching, I'm not as optimistic.

First of all, he is December - born. Which means that he will be significantly older than most other draftees, and, while it may give him an edge during the season, more will be expected from him.
This also means that he will not be able to participate in the upcoming U18 worlds - that's one less highly scouted tournament for him to participate in.
His last U18 worlds were this spring, and it wasn't anything special - 2 points in 5 games is even less, that Murnieks's 3 points, who is actually a projected middle first round pick. But Murnieks is 1.5 years younger.
His size also may also be a concern.

On the other hand, he already sniffed Allsvenskan, and if he is able to build on this success, spend a full season there and score come points, this will definitely help. Allsvenskan is a really good and highly scouted league, and, lets say, 0.25 ppg might get him in to top 3 rounds in the draft.
Its also good that his U20 team, apparently, got promoted to J20 Nationel. Which means that even if something does not click in the main team, he will still play in one of the best, and also highly scouted junior league.

Dont get me wrong, he is a really good prospect by Latvian standards. We had only two top 100 selections in the last 10 years, and he definitely has top 100 potential, especially if he puts on some weight and scores some points in Allsvenskan. But first - second round? Doubt that.
I've seen most of Osmanis' games in Allsvenskan. Even with limited ice time last season, he stood out for his agility, skating, and speed, and made plenty of creative passes and plays in the offensive zone. Yes, he's no Brandsegg Nygard at the moment, certainly not with physicality, but that tantalizing upside is there even if he has a lower floor. I wasn't saying I think he's already in that 1st/2nd pick range, I have him ranked in the 120s, I was saying it's more than possible with his upside if he breaks through this year. He also holds up defensively, even though physicality is still a big weakness of his when playing among men. His height is fine, 5'11", so if he can gain the weight then it might not be a big concern in a couple years.
 
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Namejs

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Good for him. Certainly not sustainable pace for 6 minutes per game, but a few more points or a disappointing teammate performance and who knows - he might move up in the line up. And then all these talks about 2nd round might not be as crazy as I thought. I would be glad to be wrong.
What about 8 minutes a game? Another primary assist and I'm kind of starting to get on the bandwagon.

I saw Osmanis last game - the talent, the hands and the hockey iq is right there, but he's still raw around the edges and needs to add some muscle.

It would be great if he could get more ice time and maybe some PP opportunities towards the end of the season
 
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SoundAndFury

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More TOI is not really realistic considering he is playing on the most stacked team in the league, especially in his position. They have Lenni Killinen, a Liiga regular his entire career, playing on the 4th line. The fact that he is making the most of his opportunities which will get him in the lineup continuously is a big win in itself.

However, contrary to his impressive 3 points in 4 games stat line, one of those points is fake as Allsvenskan, for whatever reason, credits a player who scored a winner in the shootout with an actual goal. Which for all real intents and purposes, it isn't. While having a nice-looking stat line is a win in itself, he hasn't been quite that effective.
 
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kudla

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More TOI is not really realistic considering he is playing on the most stacked team in the league, especially in his position. They have Lenni Killinen, a Liiga regular his entire career, playing on the 4th line. The fact that he is making the most of his opportunities which will get him in the lineup continuously is a big win in itself.

However, contrary to his impressive 3 points in 4 games stat line, one of those points is fake as Allsvenskan, for whatever reason, credits a player who scored a winner in the shootout with an actual goal. Which for all real intents and purposes, it isn't. While having a nice-looking stat line is a win in itself, he hasn't been quite that effective.
I thought it works like this in other leagues too?
 

SoundAndFury

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I thought it works like this in other leagues too?
I have never even considered this could be the case as I find it completely ridiculous but after checking 7 or 8 world's biggest leagues it does work the same way in the SHL and DEL (therefore likely lower-tier German leagues as well). Everyone else seems to be on the sane side.

I know IIHF taxes goalies on the losing side of the shootout with additional goal allowed, before today that was the quirkiest thing about shootout statistics I knew.
 
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Namejs

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I have never even considered this could be the case as I find it completely ridiculous but after checking 7 or 8 world's biggest leagues it does work the same way in the SHL and DEL (therefore likely lower-tier German leagues as well). Everyone else seems to be on the sane side.

I know IIHF taxes goalies on the losing side of the shootout with additional goal allowed, before today that was the quirkiest thing about shootout statistics I knew.
I'm pretty sure this was the way it worked everywhere a few years ago. And by a few I mean about 20 or 25.

More TOI is not really realistic considering he is playing on the most stacked team in the league, especially in his position. They have Lenni Killinen, a Liiga regular his entire career, playing on the 4th line. The fact that he is making the most of his opportunities which will get him in the lineup continuously is a big win in itself.

However, contrary to his impressive 3 points in 4 games stat line, one of those points is fake as Allsvenskan, for whatever reason, credits a player who scored a winner in the shootout with an actual goal. Which for all real intents and purposes, it isn't. While having a nice-looking stat line is a win in itself, he hasn't been quite that effective.
That goal was sweet af and you're not taking it away from him.
 

Namejs

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Bruno Osmanis included in the NHL Central Scouting preliminary list as a 6th-7th rounder. Looks to be the only Latvian included.
It's way too early to take it seriously. The WJC will improve his stocks, but at the same time you have to account for an element of systemic bias against B tier prospects of smaller hockey nations.

If he was Slovakian, he would go #10.
 

Namejs

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What do you mean?
a) U18 Worlds and WJC have an outsized value for such a small sample of games
b) if you're on the top line of a winning team, your individual productivity is going to have an outsized boost due to usage×ice time×quality of linemates.

This is especially true if you don't play in a very scout-saturated market. The lower the tier of your prospect, the fewer eyes assess you professionally, the more these WJC-type tournaments affect their draft stock.

To better illustrate the point, let's have a little thought experiment.

We have 3 forwards born at the same time who are identical carbon copies of each other. Their only difference is in their citizenship.

Player 1 was born in Sweden.
Player 2 was born in Slovakia.
Player 3 was born in Latvia.
2025 is their draft year.

Player 1 will not make the cut for the Swedish U20 WJC squad. He does make the U18 Worlds, but plays on the 3rd line wing to balance out the lines.

Player 2 makes the U20 WJC and plays in a top 6 role. He is the leading player of the Slovakian U18 team with competent and draft-worthy linemates, all of whom will become major pro players. He gets a spot on PP1 with plenty of ice time.

Player 3 has been the leading player on the Latvian U20 and U18 team already since he was an underager. He has one draft-worthy linemate, but the top pairing defencemen will never play pro hockey. He systematically generates most of the scoring chances, but their line scores less than a goal per game.

Player 1 has 7 points in 7 games.
Player 2 has 14 points in 7 games.
Player 3 has 4 points in 5 games.

Playing on an average, but competitive team can make you look like a better player. In fact, in the right circumstances, that's recipe for getting extremely overhyped.

Playing on a below average team not able to keep up with the pack -- that is going to make you look worse than you actually are. Especially if you lose 1:12.

It's a type of cognitive bias and all of us succumb to it from time to time. The guys doing play-by-play on TSN don't even bother to learn the names of Latvian prospects, the whole team is just an afterthought to them.

I do the same thing watching, say, Estonian juniors. They probably all suck, right?

That's what I mean.
 
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kudla

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a) U18 Worlds and WJC have an outsized value for such a small sample of games
b) if you're on the top line of a winning team, your individual productivity is going to have an outsized boost due to usage×ice time×quality of linemates.

This is especially true if you don't play in a very scout-saturated market. The lower the tier of your prospect, the fewer eyes assess you professionally, the more these WJC-type tournaments affect their draft stock.

To better illustrate the point, let's have a little thought experiment.

We have 3 forwards born at the same time who are identical carbon copies of each other. Their only difference is in their citizenship.

Player 1 was born in Sweden.
Player 2 was born in Slovakia.
Player 3 was born in Latvia.
2025 is their draft year.

Player 1 will not make the cut for the Swedish U20 WJC squad. He does make the U18 Worlds, but plays on the 3rd line wing to balance out the lines.

Player 2 makes the U20 WJC and plays in a top 6 role. He is the leading player of the Slovakian U18 team with competent and draft-worthy linemates, all of whom will become major pro players. He gets a spot on PP1 with plenty of ice time.

Player 3 has been the leading player on the Latvian U20 and U18 team already since he was an underager. He has one draft-worthy linemate, but the top pairing defencemen will never play pro hockey. He systematically generates most of the scoring chances, but their line scores less than a goal per game.

Player 1 has 7 points in 7 games.
Player 2 has 14 points in 7 games.
Player 3 has 4 points in 5 games.

Playing on an average, but competitive team can make you look like a better player. In fact, in the right circumstances, that's recipe for getting extremely overhyped.

Playing on a below average team not able to keep up with the pack -- that is going to make you look worse than you actually are. Especially if you lose 1:12.

It's a type of cognitive bias and all of us succumb to it from time to time. The guys doing play-by-play on TSN don't even bother to learn the names of Latvian prospects, the whole team is just an afterthought to them.

I do the same thing watching, say, Estonian juniors. They probably all suck, right?

That's what I mean.
There is a small difference between Latvian and Slovakian in terms of how the scouts look at them, since, well, both countries simply suck at the NHL level currently. This is why just by the logic of probability, a NHL team will draft a no-name Swede (~70 NHLers) out of the swedish u18 league, but not the Latvian who might objectively be the better player.

A country has more NHLers - > the junior gets a slight edge. I also remember how TSN undervalued slovak teams on WJC, but things changed after the famous drafts, beating USA and playing close games with Canada.

Claiming that if Osmanis was slovak would dramatically help his draft stock is extremely unfortunate and funny at the same time. Out of all, you pricked the country that has the exact same problem as you thing Latvia is having. We ALWAYS get less drafted players that we expect (no, it is not homer-ism), because NHL teams just do not like drafting them. That is the truth. Instead of a player that should get drafted, we see waves of random Swedes and Czechs. in the late round of course. So in case of this problem, I would merge Latvia and Slovakia into the same category. Even the ranking that you were basing on has our best prospect in 4th-5th round.

Osmanis's problem is that he plays on a weak team, so it is harder to get noticead and also has not done anything that special yet apart from the respectable Allsvenskan production. If he manages to keep up with this production and has a good WJC, he will get ranked higher. For now though I'd rank him at least a 4-5th round prospect
 
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Svedu

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It's way too early to take it seriously. The WJC will improve his stocks, but at the same time you have to account for an element of systemic bias against B tier prospects of smaller hockey nations.

If he was Slovakian, he would go #10.
He could be a 2-4th round probably. Clearly a talent worth mentioning. Thing is, you exaggerate very often.
You are good at problematizing when comparing how you, yourself would see and think regarding Estonian prospects for an example. But the thing is you go all the way and handle these scenarios with a complete black or white perspective in your eagerness of making a point. Also, you seem to think or believe that everyone else would share your subjective thoughts about prospects or other things.

You did the same with Vilmanis. I get it, Latvia are finally producing some interesting talent and that's fun. But you come off as bitter when, and cynical with your statements with a bit too much of this or the highway kind of reasoning. Which makes it difficult to take you serious. Have a good one.

Edit: Also, last but not least. Murnieks is a clear and good example of you being wrong. Very interesting prospect and he's already known and recognized since way back and he will most likely be a 1-2 rounder. And why then? Because of his own talent, career decisions and performances. With decisions I mean what? Of course the fact he went to NA or left Latvia because most likely there aren't competition enough for him to take the next step there. You need to evaluate, see and take your opportunities as well and he did. Good for him.
Whilst you on the other hand? Reason in a way like everything should be served for you (him) in some strange way... Very rare does anything work like that in a result oriented world. And if does, then it's because of corruption.
 
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