a) U18 Worlds and WJC have an outsized value for such a small sample of games
b) if you're on the top line of a winning team, your individual productivity is going to have an outsized boost due to usage×ice time×quality of linemates.
This is especially true if you don't play in a very scout-saturated market. The lower the tier of your prospect, the fewer eyes assess you professionally, the more these WJC-type tournaments affect their draft stock.
To better illustrate the point, let's have a little thought experiment.
We have 3 forwards born at the same time who are identical carbon copies of each other. Their only difference is in their citizenship.
Player 1 was born in Sweden.
Player 2 was born in Slovakia.
Player 3 was born in Latvia.
2025 is their draft year.
Player 1 will not make the cut for the Swedish U20 WJC squad. He does make the U18 Worlds, but plays on the 3rd line wing to balance out the lines.
Player 2 makes the U20 WJC and plays in a top 6 role. He is the leading player of the Slovakian U18 team with competent and draft-worthy linemates, all of whom will become major pro players. He gets a spot on PP1 with plenty of ice time.
Player 3 has been the leading player on the Latvian U20 and U18 team already since he was an underager. He has one draft-worthy linemate, but the top pairing defencemen will never play pro hockey. He systematically generates most of the scoring chances, but their line scores less than a goal per game.
Player 1 has 7 points in 7 games.
Player 2 has 14 points in 7 games.
Player 3 has 4 points in 5 games.
Playing on an average, but competitive team can make you look like a better player. In fact, in the right circumstances, that's recipe for getting extremely overhyped.
Playing on a below average team not able to keep up with the pack -- that is going to make you look worse than you actually are. Especially if you lose 1:12.
It's a type of cognitive bias and all of us succumb to it from time to time. The guys doing play-by-play on TSN don't even bother to learn the names of Latvian prospects, the whole team is just an afterthought to them.
I do the same thing watching, say, Estonian juniors. They probably all suck, right?
That's what I mean.