IMO "something else".
Keefe - fire
I'd lean towards firing Keefe. I actually think his systems are a pretty good fit for the team (we defend well and control the well puck with him), but I have 2 major concerns:
1) Watching the "All or Nothing" doc, I couldn't get over his lack of connection with the players. He'd be up there talking and just getting zero feedback/reaction. Have seen plenty of other "behind the scenes" NHL stuff, never seen such poor engagement with the coach - the players just didn't seem like they were bought in to what Keefe was saying. I think this is on both the coach and the players, but it's much easier to change the coach.
2) I think he's a bit too slow and stubborn to make adjustments in the playoffs. For example sticking with Holl against Tampa even when they were really, really exposing him game after game. Or barely touching the forward lines despite 7 straight games of the team scoring just 2 goals/game - we stuck pretty heavily with Matthews/Marner line 1, JT/Nylander line 2, and ROR centring line 3, why not try mixing it up when we're struggling to score? e.g. JT on the wing centred by ROR, swapping Marner/Nylander, etc.
Dubas - keep
I'd keep Dubas. He made some huge mistakes early on (JT signing and Kadri trade, plus poor negotiation in the Matthews and Marner deals), but he was a rookie GM, and that was all in his first year or so. Since then he's made a lot of good moves IMO, and few significant mistakes. He's become a very good GM after a rocky start - maybe it was a mistake to give him the reigns at first, when he was so inexperienced, but now that he has the experience, letting go of him would be a mistake IMO.
Core 4 - keep, unless we can trade JT (but that's unlikely)
Matthews, Marner and Nylander aren't perfect, but they're very, very good, and still quite young. If we can re-sign all of them, we should. That's how we stay a contender, and staying a contender is key. There's a lot of luck in hockey, you wanna stay contending every year, tweak until you break through. Maybe you never break through (e.g. Sharks, Canucks), but maybe you do (Caps, Blues, Avs), continuing to go for it for as long as possible maximizes our chances. Ovie has been with the Caps 18 years, they've been a contender most of those years, but have only made it past round 2 once. That one time was during his 13th season with the Caps, and ... they won the cup. If we can keep Matthews/Marner/Nylander as career Leafs, they've got a shot to do the same.
JT, I would definitely trade if we could. He's still a very good PP player, but he's so incredibly mediocre at ES. He's decent offensively at ES, but nothing special, and a bit of a liability defensively. He's just too slow, and it makes his overall ES impact that of a mediocre middle 6er, not a start. An $11 mil 2C should be an elite, line carrying centre, not someone you need to find soft minutes for, who you have to prop up with a top winger.
However ... JT has a full NMC, and I can't see him waiving it. Can't even blame him for that, he's a die hard Leafs fan himself and it's his dream to win a cup here, I respect that. It would be best for the team to deal him, but ultimately, he negotiated that NMC, and if he wants to use it, we're shit outta luck.
All other plays - open to trades in the right deal
Don't blow it up just for the sake of blowing it up, but I'd be open to all sorts of moves, if we think it'll improve the team. The guys I'd most like to keep (other than Matthews/Marner/Nylander) are:
- Rielly
- Lily
- Schenn
- Knies
- Acciari
- ROR
But open to dealing even them (at least, the non-UFA guys who we can deal), depending on the deal.
