Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part X

[jokesondee]

What a ridiculous strawman. Rentals have minimal impact, and thus they are very rarely worth paying high picks for. For every rental that worked out, there are a bunch of those who didn't.

Minimal impact like the 100's of draft picks each year that never play a game in the NHL? Even 1st round picks that actually go on to have careers in the NHL are around the 40% mark. Both are crap shoots. The Jets will never lure high end FA's to come here. We can draft and develop until the cows come home but that alone is not enough for a small market team who will never land the high end FA's. Chevy has drafted INCREDIBLY well but if he started whiffing on a few picks we would be ****ed. At some point you've gotta add high end skill to get over the mountain with the hope you can re-sign them. 3+ months of a proven player that can make a difference and maybe help win you a cup and possibly be re-signed is more valuable than a 40% dart throw.

 

[Maukkis]

Minimal impact like the 100's of draft picks each year that never play a game in the NHL? Even 1st round picks that actually go on to have careers in the NHL are around the 40% mark. Both are crap shoots. The Jets will never lure high end FA's to come here. We can draft and develop until the cows come home but that alone is not enough for a small market team who will never land the high end FA's. Chevy has drafted INCREDIBLY well but if he started whiffing on a few picks we would be ****ed. At some point you've gotta add high end skill to get over the mountain with the hope you can re-sign them. 3+ months of a proven player that can make a difference and maybe help win you a cup and possibly be re-signed is more valuable than a 40% dart throw.

And because we won't have that luxury of adding good free agents, there's all the more reason to hold on to our draft picks. You said it yourself: Chevy has done very well with them so far. Why not stick to what you're good at?

If you whiff on a rental, you won't have anything to show for it. Nothing. That is the highly likely scenario. You'll get years of organisational depth out of a draft pick. You'll get trade value, however much or little that is. Those things are pretty much always given.

 

[GNP]

I think Chevy will try very hard to "resign" Hayes, if he keeps working out the way he has been of late. Chevy knows he needs a 2nd line center, and I think he'll try everything he can to keep him here with the Jets.

Would Hayes sign here ? -- a lot of people do not think so, however if he really clicks with the team, forms some good friendships, and the team has a very deep playoff push, or even a Stanley Cup appearance, he could well be very tempted. The New York papers said he wanted to stay in New York, and would have signed for $ 6 mil per year, over a long term deal. If Chevy offered him $ 6.5 to $ 7mil over 6 years, Hayes just may sign here. Stastny would have signed here, if the deal was right.

I would not at all be surprised to see Hayes resign with the Jets. On the other hand , he just may want to test out the free agent market, and it's still possible the Jet's could sign him. If they do that, the Jet's would want to deal off Little as soon as they can. He has a no move clause that's restricted to a certain amount of teams, after a certain length of time. Also if Trouba doesn't sign here, the Jet's just may throw some money at Hayes, for what they would have given Trouba.

I should add, that signing Hayes, would be a way better deal than signing Stastny, because Hayes is only 26 years old, and Stastny was 33 when they were trying to resign him.I'm glad they didn't sign him
as I think he was to old--Hayes is a better fit IMO.

You can clearly see the improved difference with Hayes in as # 2 center over Bryan Little.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How do you make up for losing Perreault? You don't with anything that is already in the organisation, so good luck shopping for another top 6 playdriving forward.

Kulikov has nothing to offer to this hockey club. Move on from him.

Perreault plays in the bottom 6, in fact usuyally on the 4th line. I'm expecting Vesalainen to be the replacement, or possibly Appleton. Though Appleton may replace Roslovic.

Kulikov is a perfectly serviceable 3rd pair D. You continue to ignore the cost of moving him. You insist he is terrible. Not just for his money but replacement level or below. If you are correct, what makes you think anyone is going to take him on?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Kulikov and Perreault can both go.

How do you get rid of Kulikov? Then how do you replace him?

 

[jokesondee]

And because we won't have that luxury of adding good free agents, there's all the more reason to hold on to our draft picks. You said it yourself: Chevy has done very well with them so far. Why not stick to what you're good at?

If you whiff on a rental, you won't have anything to show for it. Nothing. That is the highly likely scenario. You'll get years of organisational depth out of a draft pick. You'll get trade value, however much or little that is. Those things are pretty much always given.

Both are huge maybes. Draft picks are currency. Chevy has proven to also be good at rentals. Stastny was arguably the best trade deadline pick up last year and was on nobody's radar while Hayes has proven to be very good so far. By all accounts we were very close to signing Stastny but McPhee ****ed us once again, and what happens with Hayes is yet to be seen. Its the bird in hand scenario when it comes to picks vs deadline deals. You've gotta give to get. We still have a decent prospect pool. If we had kept our last two 1st round picks we'd still be rolling with Little as our #2 center and his ZERO chemistry with Laine and Connor. We also probably get bounced by Nashville last year and by the time those 2 picks make it to the NHL(if ever) Buff, Wheeler, Little are either gone or in steep decline. Heck maybe some of the young studs want out too because they dont like the direction of the team. Thankfully Chevy is being proactive and going all in to win and showing the players he is willing to do it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Minimal impact like the 100's of draft picks each year that never play a game in the NHL? Even 1st round picks that actually go on to have careers in the NHL are around the 40% mark. Both are crap shoots. The Jets will never lure high end FA's to come here. We can draft and develop until the cows come home but that alone is not enough for a small market team who will never land the high end FA's. Chevy has drafted INCREDIBLY well but if he started whiffing on a few picks we would be ****ed. At some point you've gotta add high end skill to get over the mountain with the hope you can re-sign them. 3+ months of a proven player that can make a difference and maybe help win you a cup and possibly be re-signed is more valuable than a 40% dart throw.

Except that you are assuming that your 3+ months player is better than a 40% dart throw chance. The history of TD rentals is below 40%, I believe.

You are completely ignoring the rest of the price. There are adds to those 1sts.

You are also ignoring the effect of even half-vast competent drafting with those late 1st rd picks. If you delete the obvious bad picks that anyone can see should not have been taken that high your hit rate goes up well beyond 40%. Guys who are drafted above their skill level because they are big.

Specifically, we have 1 year's experience with a traded 1st. That 1st coulda/shoulda/woulda been Joe Veleno. The guy who was probably the 2nd best C in his draft class. The guy who was widely rated between 10-15 OA but who fell for some unknown reason. The guy DRW fans are now saying is almost untouchable. The guy who just happens to project to be the guy we keep spending assets for a rental of. The guy who might be ready as soon as next year, or late next year.

Who knows what this year's draft loss will be?

 

[jokesondee]

Except that you are assuming that your 3+ months player is better than a 40% dart throw chance. The history of TD rentals is below 40%, I believe.

You are completely ignoring the rest of the price. There are adds to those 1sts.

You are also ignoring the effect of even half-vast competent drafting with those late 1st rd picks. If you delete the obvious bad picks that anyone can see should not have been taken that high your hit rate goes up well beyond 40%. Guys who are drafted above their skill level because they are big.

Specifically, we have 1 year's experience with a traded 1st. That 1st coulda/shoulda/woulda been Joe Veleno. The guy who was probably the 2nd best C in his draft class. The guy who was widely rated between 10-15 OA but who fell for some unknown reason. The guy DRW fans are now saying is almost untouchable. The guy who just happens to project to be the guy we keep spending assets for a rental of. The guy who might be ready as soon as next year, or late next year.

Who knows what this year's draft loss will be?

Like Logan Stanley? We dont get past Nashville last year without Stastny. So youre saying you'd trade in all the excitement/revenue/publicity, etc of last years playoff run for Joe Veleno? You think Chevy could sell that to Buff, Wheeler, Schiefele? No rental is good unless we win a cup?

 

[Duke749]

Too many “what if’s” being thrown around and people acting like there’s only one exact way to manage a roster. The reality is there are too many variables at play in too many scenarios. I like the idea of leaning on percentages but you have to balance things. Sometimes you have to have a little guts and try and make something happen even if the percentages suggest not too because all it takes is things working out once. All it takes is one fortunate move and suddenly you’re the Champs.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Like Logan Stanley? We dont get past Nashville last year without Stastny. So youre saying you'd trade in all the excitement/revenue/publicity, etc of last years playoff run for Joe Veleno? You think Chevy could sell that to Buff, Wheeler, Schiefele? No rental is good unless we win a cup?

Yes, exactly like Stanley.

We may or may not get by Nashville last year without Stastny. You don't know. He improved our chances, no doubt. But lots of rentals fail. Probably a higher fail rate than that of late 1st rd picks. Don't forget that we only got Stastny last year because McPhee screwed us out of Brassard. Do we get by Nashville with Brassard?

All of your pro-rental arguments assume that the rentals always work out like Stastny. Most do not. Stastny bought us 1 shot at a cup. Veleno buys us 7-10. Or might, just like the rentals might. So that is the math, 7:1.

Going all in to win the Cup in any one year is like going all in on 649. You can empty your bank account and buy thousands of tickets. Maybe you win. But the odds in that lottery are 14 million to 1. TD rental odds aren't that bad but the concept is the same.

 

[Fastfrde]

I think the business side in this also gets downplayed. If the organization thinks that trading some future means gaining an extra couple of playoff home games and the revenues associated, there is going to be pressure to make that happen. Draft and develop being the plan, doesn’t mean there won’t be deviations to fit opportunities.

 

[Duke749]

I think the business side in this also gets downplayed. If the organization thinks that trading some future means gaining an extra couple of playoff home games and the revenues associated, there is going to be pressure to make that happen. Draft and develop being the plan, doesn’t mean there won’t be deviations to fit opportunities.

You have to show the guys in the room you’re committed to them as well. You can’t just always lean on “futures”. Reality is the future is on the team.

 

[KingBogo]

I think the business side in this also gets downplayed. If the organization thinks that trading some future means gaining an extra couple of playoff home games and the revenues associated, there is going to be pressure to make that happen. Draft and develop being the plan, doesn’t mean there won’t be deviations to fit opportunities.

You have to show the guys in the room you’re committed to them as well. You can’t just always lean on “futures”. Reality is the future is on the team.

Agree with both these points. There is so much more to it then the endless debate of is a rental worth the long term value of what a late 1st and B prospect ultimately become. First and foremost playoff runs are really good for business and I'm guessing the extra $10 million or so TNSE cleared due to their long run was worth the cost to the ownership group even if it is never precisely known how much Stastny contributed towards it. This year with True North square ready to open shop Chipman is no doubt looking forward to another long run even if it falls short. The additional revenues this season could spin off in a lot of different directions for TNSE. There is also the softening of the ST base by those that are financially stretch and playoff runs are really good for boosting corporate support that fills this gap.

In terms of the players they could give a rats a** about a late round pick. Buff is never likely to share the ice with whoever is selected at #31 this draft. IMO you keep swinging until you can't swing no more and then rebuild from the ground up with the high first round picks that are needed to contend.

 

[Board Bard]

I think the business side in this also gets downplayed. If the organization thinks that trading some future means gaining an extra couple of playoff home games and the revenues associated, there is going to be pressure to make that happen. Draft and develop being the plan, doesn’t mean there won’t be deviations to fit opportunities.

I sure hope accountants and car salesmen aren't making roster decisions. Although if it relieves Maurice of the responsibility, maybe that's good.

 

[JetsFan815]

Minimal impact like the 100's of draft picks each year that never play a game in the NHL? Even 1st round picks that actually go on to have careers in the NHL are around the 40% mark. Both are crap shoots. The Jets will never lure high end FA's to come here. We can draft and develop until the cows come home but that alone is not enough for a small market team who will never land the high end FA's. Chevy has drafted INCREDIBLY well but if he started whiffing on a few picks we would be ****ed. At some point you've gotta add high end skill to get over the mountain with the hope you can re-sign them. 3+ months of a proven player that can make a difference and maybe help win you a cup and possibly be re-signed is more valuable than a 40% dart throw.

In addition to great arguments made by @Mortimer Snerd and @Maukkis what some pro-rental people are missing is that that it's not a binary choice between trading for a rental or drafting a player who may or may not turn into anything. Those are not the only 2 choices- 1st round picks can be used as part of packages to acquire a player signed long term who may help the team across multiple seasons as opposed to 20 games + playoffs. I really hope Chevy can find a way to sign Hayes to make losing those assets worth it, if Hayes walks then I can't help but imagine if that 1st + Lemeiux could have been used in a package to acquire a dman to replace Trouba.

Practically speaking there's a middle ground between "never trade a 1st" and "move the 1st for a rental if can help your team everytime in your contention window". I'll defend the Stastny trade all day as that was like having a very good poker hand and betting a decent amount, Hayes trade not so much as that was like having an OK hand and still betting the same amount. I am hoping it works out for us but a bit too bold and risky for my liking.

Agree with both these points. There is so much more to it then the endless debate of is a rental worth the long term value of what a late 1st and B prospect ultimately become. First and foremost playoff runs are really good for business and I'm guessing the extra $10 million or so TNSE cleared due to their long run was worth the cost to the ownership group even if it is never precisely known how much Stastny contributed towards it. This year with True North square ready to open shop Chipman is no doubt looking forward to another long run even if it falls short. The additional revenues this season could spin off in a lot of different directions for TNSE. There is also the softening of the ST base by those that are financially stretch and playoff runs are really good for boosting corporate support that fills this gap.

To counter to the ownernship thing you have the Anaheim Ducks, an ownership group way poorer and arguably more money conscious than TNSE. They have traded their 1st just 1 time in their decade of contention and even that was conditional on making the Conference finals and they managed to re-sign the player. If the goal is to optimize playoff games for the coffers than it can be argued that it might be more prudent to extend your window and get multiple kicks at the can as opposed to go all in for a couple of years and risk shortening the window.

 

[GNP]

Agree with both these points. There is so much more to it then the endless debate of is a rental worth the long term value of what a late 1st and B prospect ultimately become. First and foremost playoff runs are really good for business and I'm guessing the extra $10 million or so TNSE cleared due to their long run was worth the cost to the ownership group even if it is never precisely known how much Stastny contributed towards it. This year with True North square ready to open shop Chipman is no doubt looking forward to another long run even if it falls short. The additional revenues this season could spin off in a lot of different directions for TNSE. There is also the softening of the ST base by those that are financially stretch and playoff runs are really good for boosting corporate support that fills this gap.

In terms of the players they could give a rats a** about a late round pick. Buff is never likely to share the ice with whoever is selected at #31 this draft. IMO you keep swinging until you can't swing no more and then rebuild from the ground up with the high first round picks that are needed to contend.

______________________________________________________

Really great post by Bogo here, and I was going to post something similar, but he did it for me. I don't think the Jet's care about a 1st round # 28 pick at this time, when their cupboards are full of guys like this right now. Guys like Roslovic, and Vesalainen, Appleton etc can't even get on the ice, on a regular basis.

Fans only think of the Stanley Cup, but fail to look at the business side. That extra $ $10,000,000 million that the Jet's make from a deep playoff run, as Bogo says, is huge for TNSE, and they need that extra gate revenue, to stay profitable. They could also use it to lessen the expense of signing an expensive UFA like Hayes, or a guy like Trouba.

I was reading an article wherein Mario Lemieux has been trying to sell the Penns for the last 3-4 years, but he and his partner can't agree on an accepting price. Mario Lemieux also stated the Penns "only make money"-- if they "get in the playoffs", and if they don't -- they "lose money." Playoff runs are critical to a teams revenue base. $$$$

I understand fans want to win the Cup, and that's great to have a passionate fan base, but they also have to consider the "business" side of things, and TNSE is an entertainment business first. Of course they would like a Stanley Cup contender, but fans must appreciate who pays the bills, and how the money is generated to pay them. The Jet's really need to make the playoffs, to make real good money --that goes a long way to the Club's longevity. Remember we're a small market franchise.

 

[KingBogo]

In addition to great arguments made by @Mortimer Snerd and @Maukkis what some pro-rental people are missing is that that it's not a binary choice between trading for a rental or drafting a player who may or may not turn into anything. Those are not the only 2 choices- 1st round picks can be used as part of packages to acquire a player signed long term who may help the team across multiple seasons as opposed to 20 games + playoffs. I really hope Chevy can find a way to sign Hayes to make losing those assets worth it, if Hayes walks then I can't help but imagine if that 1st + Lemeiux could have been used in a package to acquire a dman to replace Trouba.

Practically speaking there's a middle ground between "never trade a 1st" and "move the 1st for a rental if can help your team everytime in your contention window". I'll defend the Stastny trade all day as that was like having a very good poker hand and betting a decent amount, Hayes trade not so much as that was like having an OK hand and still betting the same amount. I am hoping it works out for us but a bit too bold and risky for my liking.



To counter to the ownernship thing you have the Anaheim Ducks, an ownership group way poorer and arguably more money conscious than TNSE. They have traded their 1st just 1 time in their decade of contention and even that was conditional on making the Conference finals and they managed to re-sign the player. If the goal is to optimize playoff games for the coffers than it can be argued that it might be more prudent to extend your window and get multiple kicks at the can as opposed to go all in for a couple of years and risk shortening the window.

Those late 1st round picks will have a lot less to do with keeping open a contention window, then the aging out of players like Buff and Wheeler. And making decisions on what current star players we can afford to keep and which ones need to be moved due to cap constraints. Our window is open now, and we will never likely be in a spot again where so much of our talent is paid under market rates.

And as I mentioned earlier TNSE will want to start show casing it's 1/4 billion investment in True North Square. Cup fever and spring weather will be very good for business both in the short and long term.

 

[Fastfrde]

From what I can see, revenues for the Jets are in the $115 - $120 MUSD range over the last few years with last year peaking with the playoffs around $135 MUSD. Last year the operating income was reported at $11 MUSD, I think that shows how important playoffs are to a small market team like the Jets. Of course, this is a very simplified income statement and is before taxes and any league revenue sharing. (data from Statistica and Forbes)

 

[ps241]

Yes, exactly like Stanley.

We may or may not get by Nashville last year without Stastny. You don't know. He improved our chances, no doubt. But lots of rentals fail. Probably a higher fail rate than that of late 1st rd picks. Don't forget that we only got Stastny last year because McPhee screwed us out of Brassard. Do we get by Nashville with Brassard?

All of your pro-rental arguments assume that the rentals always work out like Stastny. Most do not. Stastny bought us 1 shot at a cup. Veleno buys us 7-10. Or might, just like the rentals might. So that is the math, 7:1.

Going all in to win the Cup in any one year is like going all in on 649. You can empty your bank account and buy thousands of tickets. Maybe you win. But the odds in that lottery are 14 million to 1. TD rental odds aren't that bad but the concept is the same.

Joe I notice you use Veleno allot was their a rumor Jets wanted/liked him?

 

[BigZ65]

How do you get rid of Kulikov? Then how do you replace him?

If we can’t replace him we’re in huge trouble. I’d hope Poolman and Niku could replace bottom pairing dreck by next season.

Likely have to dump him on a team that needs to make the floor and add some sweetener like a mid round pick.

 

[Heldig]

Chevy has done a masterful job building a team that should be a legit contender for several years. Got close last year. This year is not looking great but maybe they still do well. Prospect pool is weakening and not many picks to rebuild it.

My main issue with Chevy is - after demoting Little at last year's trade deadline - signs him to a big new contract -then demotes him AGAIN at this year's trade deadline.

Not stoked by the deal sending Armia away to rid themselves of a contract. Disappointed that Lemiuex was traded (I think the team needs his kind of grit). Giving away Petan was puzzling.

This summer is his biggest challenge...dealing with Trouba; re-building the D; finding a second line C (Hayes or otherwise); signing Laine, Connor, Copp + Tanev; balancing the Cap with Perrault and Little (and Myers)...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Joe I notice you use Veleno allot was their a rumor Jets wanted/liked him?

I don't know about any rumours but he was BPA by a wide margin and he plays the position of greatest need. So either drafting by need or by BPA he was the obvious choice. No one else was even close.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If we can’t replace him we’re in huge trouble. I’d hope Poolman and Niku could replace bottom pairing dreck by next season.

Likely have to dump him on a team that needs to make the floor and add some sweetener like a mid round pick.

Poolman and Niku are both RD. Even if Niku plays the left side we still need another LD and someone in the PB. Start wit JMo and Buff, add Poolman and Niku. You need 3 more D men. How is Kulikov not one?

If Kuli is gone, we retained 2 mil to get him moved. If you spend 2 mil on a replacement, that replacement needs to be better than Kuli or we haven't gained a thing. What term does that replacement player get? If it is more than 1 year he is in the way.

I just do not understand how anyone can see moving Kulikov as being better than simply letting him walk after 1 more year. It isn't worth giving up anything at all to move his cap hit for only 1 year. The fact it is only 1 year is key in this evaluation. We can carry him for that year and he can contribute for that year. What's the problem here?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the business side in this also gets downplayed. If the organization thinks that trading some future means gaining an extra couple of playoff home games and the revenues associated, there is going to be pressure to make that happen. Draft and develop being the plan, doesn’t mean there won’t be deviations to fit opportunities.

That still isn't the point. It is just about getting a little now or a lot long term. That's it. Nothing else.

An extra 2 home dates this year are not worth giving up an extra 2 home dates every year for the next ten years.

Best chance to win a Cup? Long window of contention.
Best chance to win multiple Cups? Long window of contention.
Best chance of long window of contention? Make good value decisions with assets.

 

[buggs]

Chevy has done a masterful job building a team that should be a legit contender for several years. Got close last year. This year is not looking great but maybe they still do well. Prospect pool is weakening and not many picks to rebuild it.

My main issue with Chevy is - after demoting Little at last year's trade deadline - signs him to a big new contract -then demotes him AGAIN at this year's trade deadline.

Not stoked by the deal sending Armia away to rid themselves of a contract. Disappointed that Lemiuex was traded (I think the team needs his kind of grit). Giving away Petan was puzzling.

This summer is his biggest challenge...dealing with Trouba; re-building the D; finding a second line C (Hayes or otherwise); signing Laine, Connor, Copp + Tanev; balancing the Cap with Perrault and Little (and Myers)...

I might not be reading it right but the contract was signed before Statsny was brought in I thought. So the issue of "needing" a 2C was something that came up after the contract. Making it perfectly valid to be upset with Chevy about the contract from that perspective, but let's get the timeline to be accurate.

I've defended Little a ton but I can see issues that are there. I'm not entirely certain they should be placed on Little's shoulders alone but they do exist. Another way of looking at it is the draft picks the Jets have acquired to play alongside Little don't mesh well with him. Not that you're going to do anything about Laine and Ehlers at the expense of improving Little's line, quite the opposite. So yeah, there are issues with Little in playing with Laine and Ehlers but I remain unconvinced that Little isn't capable of playing at a 2C level (which his numbers both this year and last show he is), rather that he's a poor fit with 27/29, which he clearly is.

Regardless of that I don't entirely hate the Little contract, especially if we can get move Perreault out and slide Little into Perreault's role. I tend to think of the dollar value of Little's current contract as an updated Perreault contract (relative to the cap). It's expensive for a 3rd line player but that's the same thought I had of the Perreault contract at the time it was signed. We do need a different 2C to play with 27/29 as it shouldn't be Little. But he still has substantial value. Were he willing I expect there are teams that would trade for him. You won't get a kings ransom in return but it might be possible (but for the NMC).

I also think the Little contract is part of the Jets effort to show that they value the players that play for them and will take care of them. It's an artifact of the market we're in. No matter how I or anyone might feel about Winnipeg the perception out there is that it's far from a desirable market to play in with respect to living there. Whether the reasons are accurate or not is irrelevant, the perception exists. So I think Chevy is doing his utmost to show that the management is top quality versus some of the other teams. There's a price associated with that and the Little, Buff and potentially Wheeler contracts will show that in time. But it may pay dividends when you're trying to sign a Connor, Ehlers, Laine when they don't know what the other markets fully offer or what other management is like. They do know that the management will do its best to take care of its players. Won't ever matter to a player with a mercenary mindset but it seems to have worked a bit with Ehlers and Scheifele thus far.

As for Petan? What exactly had he done in Winnipeg and what was Winnipeg doing for him by keeping him in the press box? That was as much a mercy trade as anything. The Jets didn't see a fit and moved Petan to somewhere that was willing to give him a shot. Odd that it was Toronto that would give him that shot but it is what it is. He had no future in Winnipeg. And I don't dislike Petan at all, he just didn't end up fitting.