Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part X

[Mortimer Snerd]

You have to show the guys in the room you’re committed to them as well. You can’t just always lean on “futures”. Reality is the future is on the team.

Doesn't change the equation at all. The best way to get Scheifele a Cup, or Ehlers, Connor or Laine is to get max value for assets that extends the window of contention.

The problem here, IMO is that pro-rental people are overestimating the value of these rentals - by a massive margin. Most rentals don't end up making a big difference. Posters here keep saying that late 1sts are only a 40% chance of a hit. Are the chances of expensive rentals even that good? Look at Duchene, Dzingel, Simmonds, Gudbranson, Johansson, Granlund. Those are just this year. Look at Brassard last year. The list goes on and on. Many rentals contribute little or nothing.

Then look at the time factor. Rentals are short term by definition. The assets traded away are usually for a minimum of 7 years, often much longer. It just isn't even close. The only thing the rentals offer is immediacy.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agree with both these points. There is so much more to it then the endless debate of is a rental worth the long term value of what a late 1st and B prospect ultimately become. First and foremost playoff runs are really good for business and I'm guessing the extra $10 million or so TNSE cleared due to their long run was worth the cost to the ownership group even if it is never precisely known how much Stastny contributed towards it. This year with True North square ready to open shop Chipman is no doubt looking forward to another long run even if it falls short. The additional revenues this season could spin off in a lot of different directions for TNSE. There is also the softening of the ST base by those that are financially stretch and playoff runs are really good for boosting corporate support that fills this gap.

In terms of the players they could give a rats a** about a late round pick. Buff is never likely to share the ice with whoever is selected at #31 this draft. IMO you keep swinging until you can't swing no more and then rebuild from the ground up with the high first round picks that are needed to contend.

You are still making your evaluation based on a false premise. On avg, the rentals don't increase your PO run because some are good and some are bad. You are assuming that all are good. I suggest that there are more bad than good. And you are ignoring the fact that the assets given up have the chance to increase your PO run far more times.

 

[DRW204]

Chevy has done a masterful job building a team that should be a legit contender for several years. Got close last year. This year is not looking great but maybe they still do well. Prospect pool is weakening and not many picks to rebuild it.

My main issue with Chevy is - after demoting Little at last year's trade deadline - signs him to a big new contract -then demotes him AGAIN at this year's trade deadline.

Not stoked by the deal sending Armia away to rid themselves of a contract. Disappointed that Lemiuex was traded (I think the team needs his kind of grit). Giving away Petan was puzzling.

This summer is his biggest challenge...dealing with Trouba; re-building the D; finding a second line C (Hayes or otherwise); signing Laine, Connor, Copp + Tanev; balancing the Cap with Perrault and Little (and Myers)...

The Little contract was signed Sept 2017, the Fall prior to Stastny being brought in. I don't think Little is a bad player, 5.3M probably buys you a player of equivalent ilk on the open market but the lack of chemistry with Laine is concerning. I agree with your points though.

I thought Little had been playing better this season, prior to the Hayes addition. He's been non-existent on Lowry's line though.

Up until 2-25-19
Little; 62 gp, 776 mins 5v5, 2.01 5v5 pts/60 (behind Scheif, Lemieux, Wheeler) and 26 5v5 pts total (behind Scheifele and Wheeler). He was in the 40s in league-wide C rankings for total 5v5 points in that time which is average production for a 2C.

I just find it a bit frustrating that Maurice did not even try once to unite X-Little-Wheeler & X-Scheifele-Laine. Exhaust your options, find alternatives, EXPERIMENT - just to see if they can get the top 6 clicking at a more efficient rate prior to Chevy moving a 1st+prospect for a rental. The answer could have been in-house and we would still have a 1st+Lemieux perhaps. It's not like Laine has been producing at 5v5 since the TDL either.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Those late 1st round picks will have a lot less to do with keeping open a contention window, then the aging out of players like Buff and Wheeler. And making decisions on what current star players we can afford to keep and which ones need to be moved due to cap constraints. Our window is open now, and we will never likely be in a spot again where so much of our talent is paid under market rates.

And as I mentioned earlier TNSE will want to start show casing it's 1/4 billion investment in True North Square. Cup fever and spring weather will be very good for business both in the short and long term.

Following that strategy means keeping aging players past their best before dates - and paying them big money at the same time - as well as moving young assets in order to please those aging players.

It may or may not prove to be a recipe for a Cup, but it will be a recipe for a short window. It means the team you watched last night is our best hope for a Cup in this window of contention. We may get 1 more shot next year, if we hang on to Trouba and if we trade assets at the TD to go for it one more time. Or we don't do those things and our window closes this year. We will remain a PO team for several years, but will we be able to contend with Trouba gone and Little, Wheeler and Buff showing their age? The assets that could have been used to extend that window will be gone.

As Scheifele, Ehlers, Connor, Morrissey and Laine age what are we going to do to impress them with our commitment to winning them a Cup? How will it help TNSE's bottom line if we get only a few home PO dates each year? What will that do for TN Square? TD rentals are just betting against the house.

 

[ps241]

At the end of the day it seems Chevy is going to rent higher end talent when he feels the time is right which has been the last two years. He said as much a few years back when he was asked if he would spend to rent at any point and he referenced the organization getting two extra first round picks (Stanley and Roslo) so they had room to deal firsts when needed. I found that interesting at the time because it indicated they didn’t have the “ridged” D&D model I had built up in my mind and it was obviously much more flexible. In Chevy’s asset managment strategy rental players are obviously part of it as contentious as that seems to be.

 

[ps241]

I don't know about any rumours but he was BPA by a wide margin and he plays the position of greatest need. So either drafting by need or by BPA he was the obvious choice. No one else was even close.

Well I sure would like him but one has to wonder why he dropped that far if the choice was that obvious? Maybe he wasn’t TNSE’s choice?

 

[BigZ65]

Doesn't change the equation at all. The best way to get Scheifele a Cup, or Ehlers, Connor or Laine is to get max value for assets that extends the window of contention.

The problem here, IMO is that pro-rental people are overestimating the value of these rentals - by a massive margin. Most rentals don't end up making a big difference. Posters here keep saying that late 1sts are only a 40% chance of a hit. Are the chances of expensive rentals even that good? Look at Duchene, Dzingel, Simmonds, Gudbranson, Johansson, Granlund. Those are just this year. Look at Brassard last year. The list goes on and on. Many rentals contribute little or nothing.

Then look at the time factor. Rentals are short term by definition. The assets traded away are usually for a minimum of 7 years, often much longer. It just isn't even close. The only thing the rentals offer is immediacy.

Rentals in isolation aren't bad. The problem with the Jets now is that they've burned a lot of assets for basically nothing. Unlikely Hayes stays here, lost Stastny, traded Armia to dump Mason, so we're down a cheap winger relative to his contribution and two first-round picks, plus some mid-round picks for nothing. And we keep buying the same thing at the deadline, 2nd line centre and defensive depth. Why not address these holes in the summer?

The alternative is to use those assets on the trade market to add guys under team control and maybe some futures. Buying rentals isn't terrible, but can't do it every year if we can't retain those guys reasonably long-term. I'd like to see Chevy much more active in June and July, not February.

 

[buggs]

Rentals in isolation aren't bad. The problem with the Jets now is that they've burned a lot of assets for basically nothing. Unlikely Hayes stays here, lost Stastny, traded Armia to dump Mason, so we're down a cheap winger relative to his contribution and two first-round picks, plus some mid-round picks for nothing. And we keep buying the same thing at the deadline, 2nd line centre and defensive depth. Why not address these holes in the summer?

The alternative is to use those assets on the trade market to add guys under team control and maybe some futures. Buying rentals isn't terrible, but can't do it every year if we can't retain those guys reasonably long-term. I'd like to see Chevy much more active in June and July, not February.

Do you think we'd have bought defensive depth to the same extent without injury to Buff and Morrissey?

 

[BigZ65]

Do you think we'd have bought defensive depth to the same extent without injury to Buff and Morrissey?

This year yes, but I think even if they were healthy they likely would have added a Beaulieu or someone like that, much like Morrow last year. At least the price on that was lower this year.

 

[Pongs21]

Rentals in isolation aren't bad. The problem with the Jets now is that they've burned a lot of assets for basically nothing. Unlikely Hayes stays here, lost Stastny, traded Armia to dump Mason, so we're down a cheap winger relative to his contribution and two first-round picks, plus some mid-round picks for nothing. And we keep buying the same thing at the deadline, 2nd line centre and defensive depth. Why not address these holes in the summer?

The alternative is to use those assets on the trade market to add guys under team control and maybe some futures. Buying rentals isn't terrible, but can't do it every year if we can't retain those guys reasonably long-term. I'd like to see Chevy much more active in June and July, not February.

The higher the need the higher the price. It would be nice to address the 2C hole this summer (if possible). I don't get the sense Hayes is staying either, just my gut feeling with the words he uses during his interviews doesn't sound like a guy who's given much thought to sticking around. I've had no issues with the moves Chevy made at the deadline these past 2 years, however at the same time isn't sustainable moving forward.

 

[DRW204]

Rentals in isolation aren't bad. The problem with the Jets now is that they've burned a lot of assets for basically nothing. Unlikely Hayes stays here, lost Stastny, traded Armia to dump Mason, so we're down a cheap winger relative to his contribution and two first-round picks, plus some mid-round picks for nothing. And we keep buying the same thing at the deadline, 2nd line centre and defensive depth. Why not address these holes in the summer?

The alternative is to use those assets on the trade market to add guys under team control and maybe some futures. Buying rentals isn't terrible, but can't do it every year if we can't retain those guys reasonably long-term. I'd like to see Chevy much more active in June and July, not February.

agree with you on the 2C hole
disagree with the def depth

how many Morrow's, Beaulieu's, Bogdan's should they carry for the full year? they buy defenders for low prices at the TDL for injury insurance during the POs not to address holes

 

[Whileee]

I think Chevy and the Jets thought long and hard before giving up picks for rentals this year and last. They are using a wider set of facts than we are, chiefly the likely plans with Trouba. If they need to move Trouba for futures then you could see the added emphasis on maximizing the roster these last couple of seasons while they have Trouba, while also realizing that they will soon be adding additional prospects and picks from a Trouba trade. If Trouba is on his way out they might even be looking at a longer horizon to hit the same level on D when their young players like Samberg and Niku are ready for top roles, while retaining a strong young forward core and goalie that bridges to a rebuilt defense.

One factor that has been clear is their recognition of the flattening of the value curve for draft picks when you are looking at around 27-60. There is a much more gradual drop off in pick value in that range than between the top 10 and late 1st round. You will always find players you missed with a later pick, but there are always later picks that you might pick up at 55-60 that can transform the franchise. It's just that the probability is somewhat lower.

 

[780il]

What would you guys want for Trouba in the summer?

He's probably gonna want to leave and we'd need to ask him if he's willing to sign long term in Edmonton first. If he is I'd like to make a move.

Only things off the table are McDrai.

I see he has 44 points rn, is he a good #1pp option and can he move the puck up? Ik he's a stud defensively.

Klefbom + 2nd? Maybe our 1st?

 

[mondo3]

IMO if Trouba was fine with playing in Edmonton and signing an extension, then he'd be worth more than what looks like around the 9th overall pick.

 

[DRW204]

What would you guys want for Trouba in the summer?

He's probably gonna want to leave and we'd need to ask him if he's willing to sign long term in Edmonton first. If he is I'd like to make a move.

Only things off the table are McDrai.

I see he has 44 points rn, is he a good #1pp option and can he move the puck up? Ik he's a stud defensively.

Klefbom + 2nd? Maybe our 1st?

Does Klef play the right side at all? How would you rank him as far as a league-wide archetype? ie: 1D, 2D, 3d etc (league-wide not EDM specific). Can he carry a pairing by himself? What kind of player is he best paired with? And he also has had a laundry list of injuries if i recall.... sorry for all the questions haven't watched him much this year

let's say the 1st is outside the top 10, would you do 1st+Bouchard for Trouba(+?)

 

[tbcwpg]

What would you guys want for Trouba in the summer?

He's probably gonna want to leave and we'd need to ask him if he's willing to sign long term in Edmonton first. If he is I'd like to make a move.

Only things off the table are McDrai.

I see he has 44 points rn, is he a good #1pp option and can he move the puck up? Ik he's a stud defensively.

Klefbom + 2nd? Maybe our 1st?

I'd say that there would be a lot of disappointed Jets fans if Trouba isn't traded for at least a 1st. I'm alright with a 2nd depending on the guy coming back. I'm not familiar enough with Klefbom to make that decision, but I'd be looking at any defenceman with some NHL experience being offered up in a trade for Trouba as suspicious. Why would the Oilers want to trade him for Trouba, if he doesn't have a bigger upside than Trouba?

Obviously, you're gonna hear a lot of Bouchard from fans here, at least I know that's off the table so don't paint us all with that brush

Also, if Trouba is unwilling to sign in Winnipeg, I'd say Edmonton is also likely off the table. Our cities are the two most often to appear on no-trade clauses.

 

[780il]

Does Klef play the right side at all? How would you rank him as far as a league-wide archetype? ie: 1D, 2D, 3d etc (league-wide not EDM specific).

let's say the 1st is outside the top 10, would you do 1st+Bouchard for Trouba(+?)

Klefbom is a good #2d. He's a rock in his own zone and can chip in offensively a decent bit. His contract is fantastic so idk if we'd move him. He plays only on the left. Maybe you guys would be interested in Larsson +? He gives you the same type of guy as Trouba (shutdown RHD) but he's just not as good but has a good contract.

The 1st with a minor add like Bear or even a 2nd I'd do. 1st + Bouchard is way too much imo.

 

[780il]

I'd say that there would be a lot of disappointed Jets fans if Trouba isn't traded for at least a 1st. I'm alright with a 2nd depending on the guy coming back. I'm not familiar enough with Klefbom to make that decision, but I'd be looking at any defenceman with some NHL experience being offered up in a trade for Trouba as suspicious. Why would the Oilers want to trade him for Trouba, if he doesn't have a bigger upside than Trouba?

Obviously, you're gonna hear a lot of Bouchard from fans here, at least I know that's off the table so don't paint us all with that brush

Also, if Trouba is unwilling to sign in Winnipeg, I'd say Edmonton is also likely off the table. Our cities are the two most often to appear on no-trade clauses.

Yeah it's pretty unlikely he would but I did say if he agreed to sign here long term..

Bouchard off the table, looking back at it Klefbom might be as well cause his contract is so good.

What do you think of Larsson + Bear + 2nd?

 

[snowkiddin]

What would you guys want for Trouba in the summer?

He's probably gonna want to leave and we'd need to ask him if he's willing to sign long term in Edmonton first. If he is I'd like to make a move.

Only things off the table are McDrai.

I see he has 44 points rn, is he a good #1pp option and can he move the puck up? Ik he's a stud defensively.

Klefbom + 2nd? Maybe our 1st?

I unfortunately don’t see much of a fit with Edmonton. Trouba seems to be very picky about where he is gonna play, and I can’t imagine Edmonton is much higher on his list than Winnipeg.

If Trouba is traded, he’s likely going to a place he wants to be.

 

[tbcwpg]

Yeah it's pretty unlikely he would but I did say if he agreed to sign here long term..

Bouchard off the table, looking back at it Klefbom might be as well cause his contract is so good.

What do you think of Larsson + Bear + 2nd?

Not too interested in that package, to be honest.

 

[DRW204]

Klefbom is a good #2d. He's a rock in his own zone and can chip in offensively a decent bit. His contract is fantastic so idk if we'd move him. He plays only on the left. Maybe you guys would be interested in Larsson +? He gives you the same type of guy as Trouba (shutdown RHD) but he's just not as good but has a good contract.

The 1st with a minor add like Bear or even a 2nd I'd do. 1st + Bouchard is way too much imo.

Who is better between Bear and Jones? What's the floor/ceiling/expected outcome of both of them?

What would need to be added to Trouba to get 1st (outside top 10)+Bouchard?

I have trouble imagining Trouba signing with Edmonton if he wont re-sign with Winnipeg so all could be moot. But just gaging value

 

[780il]

Who is better between Bear and Jones? What's the floor/ceiling/expected outcome of both of them?

What would need to be added to Trouba to get 1st (outside top 10)+Bouchard?

I have trouble imagining Trouba signing with Edmonton if he wont re-sign with Winnipeg so all could be moot. But just gaging value

Jones is a good bit better than Bear and we don't want to move him. He's the complete package. Smooth skater, good pass, nice shot, and he's rock solid in his own zone. His and Bear's upside is probably that of a #3 with a floor of #6dman.

You'd need to add a lot to get the 1st and Bouchard. I'm talking like Trouba and Ehlers or something. We value Bouchard very highly so it's gonna take a lot to pry him away along with a top 10 pick.

And yeah, this could be all moot. Trouba most likely wouldn't sign here.... But you never know, just gauging value and seeing potential deals if he would.

 

[Huffer]

Jones is a good bit better than Bear and we don't want to move him. He's the complete package. Smooth skater, good pass, nice shot, and he's rock solid in his own zone. His and Bear's upside is probably that of a #3 with a floor of #6dman.

You'd need to add a lot to get the 1st and Bouchard. I'm talking like Trouba and Ehlers or something. We value Bouchard very highly so it's gonna take a lot to pry him away along with a top 10 pick.

And yeah, this could be all moot. Trouba most likely wouldn't sign here.... But you never know.

Nonsense. You're not getting a signed top pair RHD, and a top line winger both young and proven in the NHL for a top 10 pick and Bouchard who are both maybes. It doesn't matter how much Oiler fans want to pin more hopes on Bouchard, he's not worth a signed Trouba, and Ehlers is already a young top 10 pick that's proven he can play on the 1st line. O chance that's anywhere close to value for the Jets.

 

[780il]

Nonsense. You're not getting a signed top pair RHD, and a top line winger both young and proven in the NHL for a top 10 pick and Bouchard who are both maybes. It doesn't matter how much Oiler fans want to pin more hopes on Bouchard, he's not worth a signed Trouba, and Ehlers is already a young top 10 pick that's proven he can play on the 1st line. O chance that's anywhere close to value for the Jets.

I never said the Jets should so it or that it's fair for both sides. Obviously it doesn't make sense for a contending team to trade impact players rn for some really good question marks.

Just said that's what it would take to pry away 2 blue chip young pieces...

 

[DRW204]

Jones is a good bit better than Bear and we don't want to move him. He's the complete package. Smooth skater, good pass, nice shot, and he's rock solid in his own zone. His and Bear's upside is probably that of a #3 with a floor of #6dman.

You'd need to add a lot to get the 1st and Bouchard. I'm talking like Trouba and Ehlers or something. We value Bouchard very highly so it's gonna take a lot to pry him away along with a top 10 pick.

And yeah, this could be all moot. Trouba most likely wouldn't sign here.... But you never know, just gauging value and seeing potential deals if he would.

sounds good, thanks for the replies. don't think anyone would go that far for a 1st+Bouchard. I don't know enough about Jones or Bear to say it's a good deal or not.