Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19 - Part IV

[Say What]

Maybe part of the reason Trouba has battled over $ is because he's been one of the top 30 5v5 point producers in the NHL over the past three seasons. He's also the 6th highest 5v5 point producer relative to ice time and the 33rd highest WAR.

The situation with Jacob Trouba has no basis, in regards to his market value. In my opinion, the area of concern has been stated multiple times by his representatives. The Winnipeg Hockey Club (TNSE) has expressed the desire to keep Jacob on multiple occasions. To each their own.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I love that Trouba's value is sky high right now. It will bring back a lot in a trade. He, however, clearly doesn't want to be here.

 

[DRW204]

Sorry for invading, does this move the needle as the base for a trade ?

Maatta + Brassard
for
Roslovic + Perreault

Think Perreault or Roslovic could be dynamite as the type of RW Sid thrives with and either also could be a good 3C for us.

Honestly I love Olli, but GMJR signed JMFJ for five years. Olli would really thrive out in the West too. He and Laine could be best buds. Would also not be surprised if Brass could well resign in WPG too. He really just wants to win, as long as he's paid fair and is a valued piece of a team.

don't need Brassard at all anymore. Last year was a different scenario. Our coach stubbornly wanted to make Ehlers-Little-Laine a line and it was pretty much fitting a square peg in a round hole. Chevy went out to get a C that could play and thrive with Ehlers and Laine at the TDL in Stastny. Maurice FINALLY decided to break ELL up this year and Little has started to bounce back. No way we'd re-sign Brassard as well. Id be surprised if the team moved a 1st+ again this TDL for a C

Roslovic is the most valuable piece here from a Jets POV. Would rather see what we have in Niku than acquire a top 4LD at this juncture, given the acquisition costs. You guys can take Perreault in the offseason perhaps for pick(s)

 

[Daximus]

Wouldn’t it be interesting if every team could take the Vegas deal, forfeit your share of expansion fee and keep your team intact?

I wonder how many teams would do that...probably none.

Big money teams would easily take it. Especially Toronto.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't know about that.

Roslovic still gets protected by Maurice. And we have for centre depth L. Shaw, Griffith and Suess, which is a fall off from Scheifele and Little.

Ehlers-Scheif-Wheeler
Connor-Little-Laine
Perreault-Brassard-Roslovic
Tanev-Lowry-Copp
Petan

With Appleton fitting on a couple of lines in reserve.

PKers we have

Tanev-Lowry
Copp-Little
Wheeler-Scheif
Connor

Are all able PKers. Roslovic should get some reps.

Where I think Brassard helps is that 2nd PP. He's a pretty good shot

----------------( )---------------
Roslovic

Ehers Perreault Brassard

Morrissey/Trouba

Keep Little fresh for extensive PK duty.

I think Brassard would make it so that every player on the forward lineup has an internal replacement. And centre is the one position that you can have plenty of, and still use them as wingers.

For defense we might have

Morrisey-Buff
Niku-Trouba
Chiarot-Myers
*5 of the d-men are PK stalwarts
-------------------
Kulikov-Poolman
Morrow-Nogier

Niku is the wild card. If he grows over the year, the need for a d-man is reduced. If he doesn't then there is another hole to fill.

There's not a lot of centres on the market this year, I think Brassard, Brock Nelson, Jimmy Hayes, and maybe Anisimov are available.

Brassard was brought in to Pitt to be a 3rd line centre, but he's not a checker. And we have 3 reliable defensive centres. He went within one game of the Stanley Cup finals as the #2 centre, with Turris and Pageau in Ottawa, so he has some game.

I'd be interested at the right price. You can always improve your team.

Like all situations it depends on his cost.....likely too much

^This.

I'd do Lemieux for Brassard, not a lot more. Some team will pay too much for him.

I think that if anything is brewing with the pens it is more likely Maatta is the target. Same thing applies. It depends on the price. Apparently he manages to be effective defensively despite poor skating. I don't like the sound of the criticism of his skating but I think he would be an upgrade at 2LD. I'd be interested if the price was right.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Trouba is currently #35 in cap hit among D, so his arbitration award seems in line with his WAR impact.

I've advocated for a salary in the $8 million range for him, which would put him tied for #3 among D. $7.5M, which would be easier to manage under the cap, would put him at #8 among D.

He isn't among the top 8 Dmen in the league. So 7.5 is already an overpay - although there will probably be more players get to that level next off-season. I could see swallowing that much overpay to solve the problem on our D corps.

If the cap goes to 83 next year, 8 mil = 9.64%. That % of this year's 79.5 would be 7.66 mil. I wonder which Dmen got 9.64% of cap when they signed? Hmmm - quick look shows Keith, Seabrook, Vlasic & Giordano between 9-10%. 7.5 mil is 9% of 83 mil. That brings Shattenkirk, Yandle and Fowler into the comparison between 8.7-8.9. At 8.6 we have OEL and ..... Tyler Myers.

I think those comparables say that 7.5 is an overpay, even with 83 mil cap - but not out of sight. My concern is the effect it might have on others, particularly Morrissey. If Trouba gets 7.5x5-6 years, what will Morrissey need to get for 7-8 years? I think that makes 8 the starting point. It also might spill over to some of the F's, although a less direct relationship.

 

[Board Bard]

Remember how Chevy said he'd been looking at Brian Strait for several years before he got him? (Cue face palms.) I hope he doesn't do that with Brassard.

 

[Belzebob]

Trading him we get a lot.

there is no evidence that we will get anything comparable back.

Mr Trouba has made his intention clear. he wants to play in the states to be closer to his family and girlfriend.

no team is going to trade for him this off-season if he has no intention of signing a contract with said team.

if it is down to 3 or 4 teams that suit trouba……..

we will probable not get back his worth.

 

[HannuJ]

Remember how Chevy said he'd been looking at Brian Strait for several years before he got him? (Cue face palms.) I hope he doesn't do that with Brassard.

remind us how many NHL games Strait played for us

 

[SLAYER]

Remember how Chevy said he'd been looking at Brian Strait for several years before he got him? (Cue face palms.) I hope he doesn't do that with Brassard.

Remember how Brian Strait was signed for AHL depth and only ended up playing 5 games with the Jets due to injuries?

 

[SLAYER]

there is no evidence that we will get anything comparable back.

Mr Trouba has made his intention clear. he wants to play in the states to be closer to his family and girlfriend.

no team is going to trade for him this off-season if he has no intention of signing a contract with said team.

if it is down to 3 or 4 teams that suit trouba……..

we will probable not get back his worth.

So we should give him away for nothing?

 

[Board Bard]

remind us how many NHL games Strait played for us

So a waste of time then.

 

[Adam da bomb]

there is no evidence that we will get anything comparable back.

Mr Trouba has made his intention clear. he wants to play in the states to be closer to his family and girlfriend.

no team is going to trade for him this off-season if he has no intention of signing a contract with said team.

if it is down to 3 or 4 teams that suit trouba……..

we will probable not get back his worth.

No. But the higher he's worth the higher the lesser player as well. If he's worth a 100 the return is higher than if he was worth 75.
Also the higher he's worth the more we can get a TD.

 

[Belzebob]

So we should give him away for nothing?

we will never give him away for nothing.

but him limiting the teams he will play for, will impact the type of player or players we get back.

or best option is finding a team to trade him to for his last year before ufa.

but as I said it will have to be a team that trouba will sign an extension with.

this position is like trading a player with an ntc.

it can be done, but the player has to agree to the trade

 

[Hunter368]

^This.

I'd do Lemieux for Brassard, not a lot more. Some team will pay too much for him.

I think that if anything is brewing with the pens it is more likely Maatta is the target. Same thing applies. It depends on the price. Apparently he manages to be effective defensively despite poor skating. I don't like the sound of the criticism of his skating but I think he would be an upgrade at 2LD. I'd be interested if the price was right.

Agreed on Brassard

Maatta - My concerns with him are his skating and I question do we really want a solution with such long term. My point is we have Niku, Samberg and Stanley all developing nicely with top 4 LHD potential. So do we really want to lock ourselves into a guy with such long term which also costs more to trade for and a risk during his term with his skating possibly getting worse.

 

[HannuJ]

So a waste of time then.

your previous post or the Strait signing?

he was depth that wasn't needed. nor did he affect out cap in a negative way.

really nothing lost nor gained...nor worth bringing up, IMO

 

[CaptainChef]

I'm interested in the Brassard rumours. Because I think that makes us very strong down the middle. I think there would be some apprehension on Maurice's part to have Roslovic at centre to start the playoffs, on account of inexperience. With him on the wing, he's a lot more versatile. A guy who could play on Lowry's wing, in Armia's role, and increase the possession potential of the line. His apprenticeship as a centre increases his versatility.

If Scheifele goes down at any time, our options at 1C are Little, Roslovic or Wheeler, and I think Wheeler would prefer to play as winger. Brassard was a #1C for the Rangers 3 seasons ago, 3 teams ago. I don't know if he's fallen off or hasn't fit since then.

I think the Pens regretted trading Reaves for him. Because the East has some big hitters, and that's where the Pens have fallen behind the times.

Lemieux I could see being showcased as that type of player, maybe we give up our 2nd as Brassard won't be worth a 1st again. I'd like to keep Petan as the 13th forward. Appleton becomes a depth player, which is necessary for a run. Could have Veselainen on the other wing as depth in April. And then Dano is always around. Logan Shaw can play in the NHL if needed too.

I suppose Brassard would be OK, but he's not really a need. An experienced LHD is a need right now and Pitts has a stable full of LDs. At 4.0 Maatta might be a tad pricey for what we can afford, but clear Myers & Chiarot off the books next year & going with Maatta/Buff as our second pairing, and a host of young guys to chose from for our third, I thinks we're in decent shape going forward.

 

[CaptainChef]

Trouba is currently #35 in cap hit among D, so his arbitration award seems in line with his WAR impact.

I've advocated for a salary in the $8 million range for him, which would put him tied for #3 among D. $7.5M, which would be easier to manage under the cap, would put him at #8 among D.

I really don't think its salary that's keeping Trouba from signing with us, but #3 among d-men in the league (8 mill) is too much. 7.5 seems reasonable.

 

[voyageur]

I suppose Brassard would be OK, but he's not really a need. An experienced LHD is a need right now and Pitts has a stable full of LDs. At 4.0 Maatta might be a tad pricey for what we can afford, but clear Myers & Chiarot off the books next year & going with Maatta/Buff as our second pairing, and a host of young guys to chose from for our third, I thinks we're in decent shape going forward.

Yeah I could see there being some interest in Maata. He's a bit of a reclamation project. The Pens may be just trying to clear cap space to move for other pieces, so depending on the price he's not a bad fit. If we could get them to take Kulikov back I'd be pretty happy.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed on Brassard

Maatta - My concerns with him are his skating and I question do we really want a solution with such long term. My point is we have Niku, Samberg and Stanley all developing nicely with top 4 LHD potential. So do we really want to lock ourselves into a guy with such long term which also costs more to trade for and a risk during his term with his skating possibly getting worse.

We have Niku and Samberg. Stanley really does not belong on that list at all. Not yet. Maybe in another year or 2 but it is some kind of fantasy to mention him as a possibility right now. Chisholm is a lot closer to the NHL than Stanley is at this point.

Niku and especially Samberg are still very much unproven at this point. Niku might be ready, or near ready to take over 3LD but we need a 2LD. Maata is only under contract for 4 years. It could easily be that long before Niku or Samberg are ready for 2nd pair minutes. We may only get 1 NHL player out of the pair and that one may be 3rd pair level.

I think there has been a lot of counting unhatched chickens with our D prospects lately. We have been spoiled by an unsustainable success rate, IMO.

I share the concern with Maatta's mobility. Maybe that can be worked on although, at 24 I wouldn't count on that. The thing is that he has managed to be effective enough in spite of it. I have to wonder if it is really as bad as it is made out to be? Or does he just manage to compensate by anticipating well? Whatever the answer, he is a solid step up from Chiarot. If our prospects pass him by in a couple of years the last couple of years of his contract would be moveable.

So then, I think it just comes down to the price.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I love that Trouba's value is sky high right now. It will bring back a lot in a trade. He, however, clearly doesn't want to be here.

Most likely, yes. But there is still a small chance that money will get it done. If that is the case we should try to keep him even if it costs a little more than he should be worth. Paying him an extra mil beats the alternative of trying to replace him.

 

[Adam da bomb]

We have Niku and Samberg. Stanley really does not belong on that list at all. Not yet. Maybe in another year or 2 but it is some kind of fantasy to mention him as a possibility right now. Chisholm is a lot closer to the NHL than Stanley is at this point.

Niku and especially Samberg are still very much unproven at this point. Niku might be ready, or near ready to take over 3LD but we need a 2LD. Maata is only under contract for 4 years. It could easily be that long before Niku or Samberg are ready for 2nd pair minutes. We may only get 1 NHL player out of the pair and that one may be 3rd pair level.

I think there has been a lot of counting unhatched chickens with our D prospects lately. We have been spoiled by an unsustainable success rate, IMO.

I share the concern with Maatta's mobility. Maybe that can be worked on although, at 24 I wouldn't count on that. The thing is that he has managed to be effective enough in spite of it. I have to wonder if it is really as bad as it is made out to be? Or does he just manage to compensate by anticipating well? Whatever the answer, he is a solid step up from Chiarot. If our prospects pass him by in a couple of years the last couple of years of his contract would be moveable.

So then, I think it just comes down to the price.

It always comes down to price.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Most likely, yes. But there is still a small chance that money will get it done. If that is the case we should try to keep him even if it costs a little more than he should be worth. Paying him an extra mil beats the alternative of trying to replace him.

As you said it always comes to price and return. You are probably right.

 

[Hunter368]

We have Niku and Samberg. Stanley really does not belong on that list at all. Not yet. Maybe in another year or 2 but it is some kind of fantasy to mention him as a possibility right now. Chisholm is a lot closer to the NHL than Stanley is at this point.

Niku and especially Samberg are still very much unproven at this point. Niku might be ready, or near ready to take over 3LD but we need a 2LD. Maata is only under contract for 4 years. It could easily be that long before Niku or Samberg are ready for 2nd pair minutes. We may only get 1 NHL player out of the pair and that one may be 3rd pair level.

I think there has been a lot of counting unhatched chickens with our D prospects lately. We have been spoiled by an unsustainable success rate, IMO.

I share the concern with Maatta's mobility. Maybe that can be worked on although, at 24 I wouldn't count on that. The thing is that he has managed to be effective enough in spite of it. I have to wonder if it is really as bad as it is made out to be? Or does he just manage to compensate by anticipating well? Whatever the answer, he is a solid step up from Chiarot. If our prospects pass him by in a couple of years the last couple of years of his contract would be moveable.

So then, I think it just comes down to the price.

Just a point of clarification:

I stated Niku, Samberg and Stanley all have top 4 potential and they do......albeit a couple of them have a better chance then the third one. Plus I never stated when they would be ready other then eluding to the fact one or more would be ready for top 4 duties within four years (Maatta term).

Totally agree I highly doubt all three make it to their potential..... more like one top 4, one 3rd pairing and one bust/depth guy. Time will tell.

My concern with Maatta as I stated is his skating getting worse over the next four years. Real effort would have to be made to improve or maybe even maintain it over those four years. IMO

Depends on Maatta cost, he would be a nice insurance blanket for 3-4 years but he isn’t a great piece either.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Just a point of clarification:

I stated Niku, Samberg and Stanley all have top 4 potential and they do......albeit a couple of them have a better chance then the third one. Plus I never stated when they would be ready other then eluding to the fact one or more would be ready for top 4 duties within four years (Maatta term).

Totally agree I highly doubt all three make it to their potential..... more like one top 4, one 3rd pairing and one bust/depth guy. Time will tell.

My concern with Maatta as I stated is his skating getting worse over the next four years. Real effort would have to be made to improve or maybe even maintain it over those four years. IMO

Depends on Maatta cost, he would be a nice insurance blanket for 3-4 years but he isn’t a great piece either.

I still don't agree with Stanley on your list at this point. I don't think he has shown top 4 upside yet. I don't think he has shown 3rd pair upside yet, or even AHL upside yet. None of that is saying that he won't eventually. But he is still such a long term project that his potential and probability of success are both just blank at this time. We probably have 3-4 other guys who would be 3rd on your list ahead of Stanley - at this time.

That means you are expecting Niku and Samberg to give us a 3-4 and a 5-6. They still may give us no one at all, or only 1. That 1 might be 2nd pair or 3rd. There is also still the possibility that they exceed your hopes for them. It is just unknown at this point.

Niku is the safer bet of the 2 right now and he doesn't look to be quite ready yet. I would lean toward keeping him now and playing him instead of Morrow. Not because Niku is kicking the door down but because the competition is weak. We live with Niku learning on the job because, even with his inexperience he is at least as good as Morrow, maybe better.