Rumor: Rumors & Trade Proposals Thread | Post Mortem '23-24 Season: Who Should Stay, Who Should Go & Who Should We Bring In?

[Oilers88]

Conspiracy theory time:

Oilers were OK trading away their first next season because they are expecting to get a first back in another trade within the next few days.

That crossed my mind as well. We have no first or second rounder next year, which means that as it currently stands we have next to nothing of value to trade at the deadline. I'm hoping something happens in the next few days to elucidate why they thought that was ok. Options could be:

i) We're somehow getting a late first or early second back in a different trade. I honestly have no idea what that could be, but maybe it's tied to the cap dump Stauffer alluded to; or

ii) They're getting some business done this summer and are comfortable not being players at the deadline this year. I get the sense they hoped to do something bigger at this past year's deadline, but with the way the season played out it was a pretty mediocre market. If they're able to clear some cap space and sign a Debrusk or Arvidsson, maybe they're ok with that being their move to put them over the top?

Even if those two things are true, I probably would still have erred on the side of keeping next year's first just in case. I'm hoping I'll see what Jeff Jackson was thinking on this one in a few days, because right now I don't see it.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

Nurse’s cap hit would be a cap dump and some GM would pony up a 1st. I don’t think Kane would get a 1st back.

 

[Cloned]

That crossed my mind as well. We have no first or second rounder next year, which means that as it currently stands we have next to nothing of value to trade at the deadline. I'm hoping something happens in the next few days to elucidate why they thought that was ok. Options could be:

i) We're somehow getting a late first or early second back in a different trade. I honestly have no idea what that could be, but maybe it's tied to the cap dump Stauffer alluded to; or

ii) They're getting some business done this summer and are comfortable not being players at the deadline this year. I get the sense they hoped to do something bigger at this past year's deadline, but with the way the season played out it was a pretty mediocre market. If they're able to clear some cap space and sign a Debrusk or Arvidsson, maybe they're ok with that being their move to put them over the top?

Even if those two things are true, I probably would still have erred on the side of keeping next year's first just in case. I'm hoping I'll see what Jeff Jackson was thinking on this one in a few days, because right now I don't see it.

Nurse’s cap hit would be a cap dump and some GM would pony up a 1st. I don’t think Kane would get a 1st back.

Nurse for Kotkaniemi + 1st

Oilers gain a pick and shed some cap while taking on a bad, but more manageable contract.

Carolina sheds a bad contract and gets the promise of a top pairing defender to replace Skjei. You hope Brind’Amour and his system can make Nurse a better defender.

 

[Spawn]

I doubt Stamkos moves to the west but imagine Stamkos on Draisaitl's wing

Biggest question would be does he take Nuge's spot on the top unit PP. Imagine Drai on one side and Stamkos on the other as one-time options with McDavid doing his typical rovering.

 

[WaitingForUser]

Biggest question would be does he take Nuge's spot on the top unit PP. Imagine Drai on one side and Stamkos on the other as one-time options with McDavid doing his typical rovering.

Drool we would run close to 50/50 the whole season I swear

 

[Hemsky4pm2]

Kane has a NMC until later this coming season. If he is interested in moving along, I could easily see him being open to Washington, New Jersey, Carolina, Boston or Tampa. 4/5 made the playoffs last year and Boston, Carolina and Tampa are all in contender territory. I can see a trade coming to free up some space for the Oilers and then them turning around and adding a W like Arvidsson as a UFA. Close pal of Ekholm. Boston makes a lot of sense for Kane but all teams are waiting for free agency to play out so I do not think anything will get done before mid July.

 

[McTonyBrar]

On TSN, Chris Johnston said that Oilers are still talking about trading Jack Campbell. But if it doesn’t happen, they are willing to buy him out on Sunday.

 

[TheNumber4]

On TSN, Chris Johnston said that Oilers are still talking about trading Jack Campbell. But if it doesn’t happen, they are willing to buy him out on Sunday.

Looks like we buying him out. Interested GMs would want him cheap and free. Unfortunately for the Oil.

 

[Hemsky4pm2]

Campbell at 50% retained does not really help the Oilers. A buyout makes the most sense. Take the medicine and move on.

 

[M Ace]

Stamkos-Bouchard-Draisaitl
Shot opps from everywhere….

 

[Hollywood55]

So is it kane who wants to be traded or the oilers trying to trade him

 

[Fishy McScales]

Campbell at 50% retained does not really help the Oilers. A buyout makes the most sense. Take the medicine and move on.

This is incorrect. A 50% retention trade is vastly preferable.

A buyout would gain them about a million in cap space this year, then years two and three are about the same, then you get three years of dead cap. Years two and three are where they need cap for Drai, Bouch and McDavid.

Besides, a trade at 50% with the other team doing the buyout is also better than the Oilers buying him out themselves.

The only caveat is we don't know the cost to move him at 50%.

 

[WaitingForUser]

This is incorrect. A 50% retention trade is vastly preferable.

A buyout would gain them about a million in cap space this year, then years two and three are about the same, then you get three years of dead cap. Years two and three are where they need cap for Drai, Bouch and McDavid.

Besides, a trade at 50% with the other team doing the buyout is also better than the Oilers buying him out themselves.

The only caveat is we don't know the cost to move him at 50%.

If the tea leaves and tin foil hats are correct perhaps a 2nd round pick being as we just essentially picked in the second round? Campbell and 2nd 50% retained could get some interest if there is guy a team likes.

 

[Sanderson]

Drool we would run close to 50/50 the whole season I swear

I'd think the powerplay would actually get worse, not better. The powerplay depends on how a unit plays as a whole, not on the individual strengths of the players. Stamkos is still a very good trigger-man, but that might not be the best fit to what the rest of the unit already has to offer.

People thought Gretzky and Hull would light it up together like no other, they didn't. Plenty of people said that Heatley would score 60 next to Joe Thornton after being traded to San Jose, he didn't even reach 40. Great abilities aren't necessarily a great match.

 

[WaitingForUser]

I'd think the powerplay would actually get worse, not better. The powerplay depends on how a unit plays as a whole, not on the individual strengths of the players. Stamkos is still a very good trigger-man, but that might not be the best fit to what the rest of the unit already has to offer.

People thought Gretzky and Hull would light it up together like no other, they didn't. Plenty of people said that Heatley would score 60 next to Joe Thornton after being traded to San Jose, he didn't even reach 40. Great abilities aren't necessarily a great match.

True I just look at as the more options Connor and Leon have to use or to fake too the better.

 

[Paralyzer]

Stamkos-Bouchard-Draisaitl
Shot opps from everywhere….

You do realize how many Canucks fans will be getting so salty and jealous of that were to happen? They are already upset with the Quinn Hughes < Bouchard in the playoffs LOL

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

I'm not feeling Debrusk as an option, he gives me Andre Burakovsky vibes, can look great at times and does impressive things, but there is a lack of consistency, his play away from the puck isn't the greatest, and he doesn't touch enough aspects of the game, like I don't see him out there defending a lead in the final minute, he just started getting a regular role on the PK, I don't see him bringing the 2nd unit PP to new heights, he's not a possession driver, he can't carry a line.

I'm hearing $6M-ish for this guy and it seems to come with a level of hopefulness that he is right about to find that next level, I think the right line in the sand for Debrusk is in the mid-$4M's and if given the option I would take Duchene over him, probably Arvidsson as well

 

[Heavy Dee]

I'm not feeling Debrusk as an option, he gives me Andre Burakovsky vibes, can look great at times and does impressive things, but there is a lack of consistency, his play away from the puck isn't the greatest, and he doesn't touch enough aspects of the game, like I don't see him out there defending a lead in the final minute, he just started getting a regular role on the PK, I don't see him bringing the 2nd unit PP to new heights, he's not a possession driver, he can't carry a line.

I'm hearing $6M-ish for this guy and it seems to come with a level of hopefulness that he is right about to find that next level, I think the right line in the sand for Debrusk is in the mid-$4M's and if given the option I would take Duchene over him, probably Arvidsson as well

I would rather Arviddson. He is a competitive sob with some bite.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

I would rather Arviddson. He is a competitive sob with some bite.

I mostly look at it from the perspective of what makes a Draisaitl line successful based on prior examples, the key things between his lines that posted the most crooked goal differential is he had someone who could help him with zone entries, generally a pesky forecheck or a great board battle player, the lines tended to be good at generating turnovers and sustained zone time.

I absolutely like Arvidsson cause he's a pretty north south player who is tenacious on the forecheck and Duchene is great at helping with zone entries a high skill level and invariably we always have moments where we load up a McDavid & Drai line and in those moments the Nuge line always suffers, he can't be the primary guy driving offense and Duchene helps with that issue as well.

 

[Hemsky4pm2]

This is incorrect. A 50% retention trade is vastly preferable.

A buyout would gain them about a million in cap space this year, then years two and three are about the same, then you get three years of dead cap. Years two and three are where they need cap for Drai, Bouch and McDavid.

Besides, a trade at 50% with the other team doing the buyout is also better than the Oilers buying him out themselves.

The only caveat is we don't know the cost to move him at 50%.

Right, so in years 2-3 they still have Campbell on the books for 2.5M. The cost to move Campbell would be significant. That is why the buyout is better for the next 3 years, in particular next year which is probably the best opportunity to win given the AAVs of Bouchard and Drai.

 

[Fishy McScales]

Right, so in years 2-3 they still have Campbell on the books for 2.5M. The cost to move Campbell would be significant. That is why the buyout is better for the next 3 years, in particular next year which is probably the best opportunity to win given the AAVs of Bouchard and Drai.

Exactly, the cap is the same in years 2-3. In your buyout scenario we add three years of dead cap.

The cost to move Campbell is, in fact, unknown. However, with 50% retention at least we know the price would come down.

Buyout is an option, but it is a last resort, not the preferable option as you put it. It probably ends up being what we'll have to live with unfortunately.

 

[McDrai]

I think Jeff Jackson is looking at Sean Walker and thinking “This guy can replace Nurse at half the cost”.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I wonder if a $7M Nurse convinces anyone. I know retaining $2.25M isn't perfect, but if it helps facilitate a deal, I should be explored

 

[Hemsky4pm2]

Exactly, the cap is the same in years 2-3. In your buyout scenario we add three years of dead cap.

The cost to move Campbell is, in fact, unknown. However, with 50% retention at least we know the price would come down.

Buyout is an option, but it is a last resort, not the preferable option as you put it. It probably ends up being what we'll have to live with unfortunately.

I will be more explicit: Trading Campbell with retention would be too expensive a proposition. This is why the buyout will be necessary and will not be the end of the world. I am personally frustrated by successive Oilers managers handing out terrible contracts that lead to buyouts and dead cap situations. Three years of 1.5M in dead cap will be unfortunate. It adds pressure to sign better value contracts.

 

[StoveTopStauffer]

I will be more explicit: Trading Campbell with retention would be too expensive a proposition. This is why the buyout will be necessary and will not be the end of the world. I am personally frustrated by successive Oilers managers handing out terrible contracts that lead to buyouts and dead cap situations. Three years of 1.5M in dead cap will be unfortunate. It adds pressure to sign better value contracts.

James Neal's dead cap space comes off next year so that will (sort of, not ideal) off set the buy out of Campbell.