Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Y'all Got Any Good Goalies?

[Burnt Biscuits]

It's actually hilarious when you look at the goaltending a player like Ovechkin got in his playoff stretches

11-12 .935 (Holtby)
12-13: .922 (Holtby)
14-15: .944 (Holtby)
15-16: .942 (Holtby)
16-17: .909 (Holtby)
17-18: .922 Holtby (won Cup Finally)
18-19: .914 (Holtby) Ovy don't do repeats


Mother f***er, Connor would have 3 or 4 Cups with goaltending like that.

Oilers in the McDavid Era By comparison

16-17: .924 (Talbot)
19-20: .889 (Smith)
20-21: .912 (Smith)
21-22: .913 (Smith)
22-23: .883 (Skinner)
23-24: .901 (Skinner)



Six times in the playoffs, 1/6 times he's had really strong goaltending. Why do anything different.

Added context the NHL average save percentage in 2011-12 was 0.914 drastically different then the modern NHL (average 0.900) where goal scoring is up and save percentages are down.

Secondly Holtby's career playoff save percentage is 0.926.

Contrast that against the career save percentage's of Brodeur 0.919, P. Roy 0.918, and Hasek 0.925

Ovechkin had better playoff goaltending than the 3 most prominent HOF goaltenders and still only made it past the 2nd round a single time in his career, McDavid has already done that twice, kind of defeats your whole argument that goaltending is this singular thing that will make all the difference in the world and the only thing you talk about.

A realistic good goalie upgrade would be a 0.910 sv% that's well above average and quite solid, apply that upgrade to Skinner's total shots against last playoffs and that theoretical good goalie replacement allows 5 less goals against with that upgrade in save percentage.

Then you contrast that against 5 on 5 results alone, not even special teams and you have McLeod, Foegele, Desharnais, and D. Ryan each allowing 8 more GA than GF , Ceci a -6 goal differential, and Nurse a whopping -11 goal differential.

Nurse is playing some of the best hockey of his career this season, so maybe the issue is already half fixed, but very obviously we had significant issues with out 3rd/4th lines and 2nd pairing D that were on paper more impactful than goaltending.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

The D upgrade I've got me eye on is Brandon Carlo and failing that Nick Jensen.

 

[Scrapin Ice]

Matt Murray (no not Toronto's Matt) now playing for NASHville/Milwaukee Admirals continuing to provide evidence he is ready for another shot at the show.
Goalie for those who don't know, Played for Spruce Grove. St. Albert boy. Played for UMass and then Texas Stars.
Lets blow out Colin and give them a B prospect.

Both Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey pushing the bubble for NJD. Simon already has 80 games in the NHL. Agent likely jumping up and down. Soon New Jersey will make a move ...before February is my guess.

 

[Scrapin Ice]

The D upgrade I've got me eye on is Brandon Carlo and failing that Nick Jensen.

Brandon Carlo would be ideal but is a fantasy. Bruins need a top line center desperately. You have one of those to throw around?
Or they will take a top 10 1st+ maybe. We dont have our '25.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Since there's a couple of days til the next game... so I did a little stats crunching using the stats over at naturalstatrick.

What I did was looked at every game that Skinner and Pickard have played this season vs every opponent they have faced.

I looked at what every opponent the Oilers have faced so far currently have in terms of High danger shooting %, Medium danger shooting % and Low danger shooting % and then looked at how many of those types of shots were faced by both Pickard and Skinner in each of their games vs each opponent.

So this is basically a way to calculate expected save pct and expected goals against when adjusted for the level of shooting % each opponent has in terms of their HD, MD and LD shooting % so far this season. In theory this should better show how each goaltender has done taking into account the strength of opposition they have actually faced.

So here's the numbers as of now:

Pickard has an expected save pct of 91.251% based on the opposition he has faced and the number of HD, MD and LD shots + other shots he has faced from each opponent in each appearance he's made.

Pickard's actual save pct is 90.079%
That's an underperformance of 1.172% below what would be expected by looking at the number and types of shots faced as well as the quality of shooting % (HD%, MD%, LD%) of the competition he faced.


Skinner has an expected save pct of 89.785% based on the opposition he has faced and the number of HD, MD and LD shots + other shots he has faced from each opponent in each appearance he's made.

Skinner's actual save pct is 89.184%
That's an underperformance of 0.601% below what would be expected by looking at the number and types of shots faced as well as the quality of shooting % (HD%, MD%, LD%) of the competition he faced.


So the takeways imo are that Skinner indeed does face tougher competition... basically the opponents he has faced are ~1.47% better on average in terms of their finishing abilities on the HD+MD+LD shots they take than Pickard has faced.

Both goalies are underperforming though... Skinner by about .60% and Pickard by about 1.17%.

That works out to Pickard allowing 25 goal against when the numbers show that expectations are that he should have allowed 22.0478 goals... so essentially he has cost the team 3 goals against.

Skinner has allowed 61 GA when the numbers show he should have allowed 57.6126 GA... so he's cost the team ~3 goals against as well.

So an extra combined 6 goals against because of below average goaltending may not sound like a lot but it isn't insignificant when you project those numbers over a full season. Projects out to ~17 more goals against because of the below average goaltending on the team (if they continue to play at the overall level they've played so far this year).


There is good news though...

Skinner in the last 4 games has had 12 GA vs an expected 14.273 GA and in the previous set of 4 games to those... 9 GA vs an expected 10.807 GA... so he is playing better. It just remains to be seen whether that improvement will continue.

Pickard showing moderate improvement as well... last 4 games he allowed 9 GA vs an expected 10.438 and in the previous set of 4 games to those... 8GA vs an expected 7.587... ie just a bit worse than expected.

I found these stats a little interesting when done this way because most of the "expected" stats out there don't really take into account the actual quality of the competition (shooting % of each actual opponent in terms of HD, MD and LD shots) that each goalie actually faces over the course of a season.

 

[McDNicks17]

A marginal upgrade? Over Stecher? Since moving to Montreal Matheson has put up .7 points per game. He had 62 points last year alone. It has taken Stecher the past 7 years to put up that many points. A marginal upgrade is a little bit pessimistic.

That's why he's a waste of assets. You're paying a huge price for a 62 point guy who only got there because he was playing Bouchard-esque PP minutes.

Matheson had 21 5v5 points last year. One more than Cody Ceci. He isn't going to be playing 3+ minutes of PP per game here, so that's what you'll be getting from him.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Brandon Carlo would be ideal but is a fantasy. Bruins need a top line center desperately. You have one of those to throw around?
Or they will take a top 10 1st+ maybe. We dont have our '25.

I see no practical reason why the cost would be that high. Even with Hampus Lindholm injured he's averaging less than 20 mins a night. on the season and hasn't played more than 20 mins a night since 2019/20.

Obviously the Bruins have some desire to re-tool given the season they've had.

So the norm would be trade your UFA's (not named Marchand), but outside of that who are the most expendable pieces?

While they may already have buyer's remorse on their off-season signings, you rarely see guys who signed for 6,7, or 8 years get moved in the first season of their multi-year deals. Then who are the next most expendable pieces who also have potential market out there for them, I'd say there first expendable name would be Charlie Coyle and then after that it's probably either Peeke or Carlo.

 

[Jumptheshark]

That's why he's a waste of assets. You're paying a huge price for a 62 point guy who only got there because he was playing Bouchard-esque PP minutes.

Matheson had 21 5v5 points last year. One more than Cody Ceci. He isn't going to be playing 3+ minutes of PP per game here, so that's what you'll be getting from him.

What montreal are doing with MM reminds me what SJ with EK. MM won't get the same amount of ice time with the oilets. Also for me, he has all the problems that Bouchard has and having two of them would cause us heart attacks.

 

[McDrai]

Bob Stauffer says the Oilers won’t be making a change in net but they will be adding a top 4 defender. He also says the bottom six needs a new dimension and is talking about switching players

Oilers not making a change in net means no cup. It’s simple as that and I am quite baffled that management doesn’t see this as a weakness.

 

[jukon]

I'd be happy with Matheson and Montembeault. Near impossible tho

 

[Wewillrise]

I’m fairly confident that this team with an upgrade on D is a cup contender. Luck is the biggest add and no one has control over that. A healthier crew going into the final than last season would be enough to put them over the top.

Looking around the league the chance of them getting a top 4 D that will move the needle enough is slight. I think depth is their best chance, if that involves a backup upgrade so be it. Slight improvement to D, backup and 4c gives them a fighting chance. Having both Drai and MCD gives them the edge no other team has.

I understand my want to have a for sure winner but that doesn’t ever happen. It’s been fun to read this fan base over the last 20ish years and all of its expectations. It’s taught me a lot of what’s important and what’s not. This is the time to enjoy and watch the best hockey of my fandom.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Bouchard was really left in no man's land on that goal. Zero outlet options with two forecheckers and his D partner under pressure as well. One of the worst line changes I've ever seen because Skinner kept bitching about the non-call.

No clue how people can keep defending Bouchard over and over.

 

[CupofOil]

Skinner is trending up, but he always starts off in the depths of hell

October - 0.872%
Novemebr - 0.898%
December - 0.906%

Took him 3 whole months to just get to average/barely above You can't have your goalie tank the start of your year. Just normal with Skinner though. October was the "easy" month too.

Woof

Here are Blackwoods numbers on a shitty SJ team

October- Also below average - 0.894
November - 0.916
December - 0.935

Yup, as people here say, this guy would not have been an upgrade......LMAO

What were their respective save percentages the 3 seasons prior? Post those, lmao
I await your reply

We lost to the exact same team we lost to in the SCF just a few months ago in a similar way (horrible defensive mistakes, horrible goaltending, no accountability from the coaching staff). Florida is the Everest and there's every sign they'll be back to the ECF again if not the Finals. It doesn't matter if we beat Joe Blow team- we need to beat the Panthers to win a Cup, and last night made it obvious we're no closer than we were in June. That's what is driving people crazy, along with being completely predictable given we kept the main suspects the same.

I guess I have to ask, are you okay with never winning a Cup during McDrai's prime? Because that's what we're going to do if Bowman continues to f*** around with the edges of the roster rather than addressing its weakest parts.

They lost by 1 goal to them, a goal late in the 3rd after destroying Minnesota and Vegas and being one of the hottest teams in the league. The overreactions around here are absurd even for HFOil standards.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I was talking to a few people and as of right now this seems like a likely outcome. Goaltending stays the same.

Nuge Mcdavid Hyman
Podkolzin Drai Arvidsson
Kane Henrique ?????
????? Bjugstad ?????

Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Kulak
????? Emberson/Stecher

Perry
Janmark
Brown
Kappanen
Skinner
Ryan

Where do these players fit on the question marks above?

It seems like we will add a mobile LHD and a 4C with size. Right now Bjugstad seems to be a top target if Utah isn't in the hunt. I believe we weren't able to trade for him last year, but this year we can.

They know that Ryan ain't the answer. Who would the other 4C be that we would target?

 

[VeteranPresence]

That's why he's a waste of assets. You're paying a huge price for a 62 point guy who only got there because he was playing Bouchard-esque PP minutes.

Matheson had 21 5v5 points last year. One more than Cody Ceci. He isn't going to be playing 3+ minutes of PP per game here, so that's what you'll be getting from him.

This paired with Stauffer's (and therefore the org's) insistence everything is Gucci in net should concern every fan. Bowman and Jackson are seeing a VERY different team than the one we are if their belief is that all we need to compete is another puck moving D and maybe a scrappy bottom six forward. That's an assessment completely divorced from reality and I don't know how you "fix" that.

They lost by 1 goal to them, a goal late in the 3rd after destroying Minnesota and Vegas and being one of the hottest teams in the league. The overreactions around here are absurd even for HFOil standards.

But we didn't beat them, and in fact lost the same way we lost the series. Again, no other team really matters.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

No clue how people can keep defending Bouchard over and over.

Yet you bash him and call him a low IQ player.

Weird, just because a goal happens with him on the ice, doesn’t mean it’s always his fault

 

[Scrapin Ice]

I see no practical reason why the cost would be that high. Even with Hampus Lindholm injured he's averaging less than 20 mins a night. on the season and hasn't played more than 20 mins a night since 2019/20.

Obviously the Bruins have some desire to re-tool given the season they've had.

So the norm would be trade your UFA's (not named Marchand), but outside of that who are the most expendable pieces?

While they may already have buyer's remorse on their off-season signings, you rarely see guys who signed for 6,7, or 8 years get moved in the first season of their multi-year deals. Then who are the next most expendable pieces who also have potential market out there for them, I'd say there first expendable name would be Charlie Coyle and then after that it's probably either Peeke or Carlo.

It is for these same reasons i proposed chasing Carlo about a month ago but came to the conclusion(s) that we don't really have what Boston needs. They will retool as you say, they have tried UFA and failed. I think its likely they want/NEED a very high first and I think there are potential sellers.
Seattle could use a Carlo quite badly. 11 and 17 overall would be quite attractive to Montreal and Ottawa. Roger McQueen has got to the type of asset Sweeney will prize.
What have we got that Boston would value highly, especially Sweeney who kinda thinks Edmonton is like dirt on his boot? If your thinking RV, or J Skinns or even Kane, Sweeney knows the value of his asset.

 

[CupofOil]

Matheson's metrics over the past three seasons are actually way worse than Ceci's haha.

Like we're talking bottom 10 in the league bad if it weren't for Ducks/Sharks players.

He won't be playing 25 minutes a night here and it won't be on a terrible team where he has to do all the heavy lifting. That needs to be taken into account when looking at his defensive metrics that he's playing a role that he's ill equipped to handle. We should be well versed in seeing players that fail here time and time again during the DoD and do better in other places with a more suitable role.

 

[Old Boys Club]

I was talking to a few people and as of right now this seems like a likely outcome. Goaltending stays the same.

Nuge Mcdavid Hyman
Podkolzin Drai Arvidsson
Kane Henrique ?????
????? Bjugstad ?????

Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Kulak
????? Emberson/Stecher

Perry
Janmark
Brown
Kappanen
Skinner
Ryan

Where do these players fit on the question marks above?

It seems like we will add a mobile LHD and a 4C with size. Right now Bjugstad seems to be a top target if Utah isn't in the hunt. I believe we weren't able to trade for him last year, but this year we can.

They know that Ryan ain't the answer. Who would the other 4C be that we would target?

No to giving up assets for Bjugstad again, already made that mistake and he wasn't particularly good. Let him stay on US teams like he wants.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

He won't be playing 25 minutes a night here. That needs to be taken into account when looking at his defensive metrics that he's playing a role that he's ill equipped to handle. We should be well versed in seeing players that fail here time and time again during the DoD and do better in other places with a more suitable role.

He also won’t be playing over 3 minutes a game on the powerplay inflating his stats making him seem like a “puck moving defense man”

 

[CupofOil]

But we didn't beat them, and in fact lost the same way we lost the series. Again, no other team really matters.

It was a toss up regular season game against the Cup champs, it's not the end of the world.
Also, it wasn't the same exact way, all their losses to the Panthers in the SCF were due to lack of scoring which was not the case this time.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I assume NJ keeps him, but make calls

 

[McDNicks17]

He won't be playing 25 minutes a night here and it won't be on a terrible team where he has to do all the heavy lifting. That needs to be taken into account when looking at his defensive metrics that he's playing a role that he's ill equipped to handle. We should be well versed in seeing players that fail here time and time again during the DoD and do better in other places with a more suitable role.

He's playing less minutes against elites per game and less 5v5 minutes per game than Kulak this season.

He isn't playing some impossible role. He just plays 6.5 minutes of special teams per game.

 

[McJadeddog]

Oilers not making a change in net means no cup. It’s simple as that and I am quite baffled that management doesn’t see this as a weakness.

Yup, this is the full answer, and the only answer that really matters. Without a new goalie, we don't win a cup, barring some miracle.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

No to giving up assets for Bjugstad again, already made that mistake and he wasn't particularly good. Let him stay on US teams like he wants.

Seems like Bjugstad or some other big 4C is happening regardless of if we like it.