Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Y'all Got Any Good Goalies?

[Burnt Biscuits]

It's actually hilarious when you look at the goaltending a player like Ovechkin got in his playoff stretches

11-12 .935 (Holtby)
12-13: .922 (Holtby)
14-15: .944 (Holtby)
15-16: .942 (Holtby)
16-17: .909 (Holtby)
17-18: .922 Holtby (won Cup Finally)
18-19: .914 (Holtby) Ovy don't do repeats


Mother f***er, Connor would have 3 or 4 Cups with goaltending like that.

Oilers in the McDavid Era By comparison

16-17: .924 (Talbot)
19-20: .889 (Smith)
20-21: .912 (Smith)
21-22: .913 (Smith)
22-23: .883 (Skinner)
23-24: .901 (Skinner)



Six times in the playoffs, 1/6 times he's had really strong goaltending. Why do anything different.

Added context the NHL average save percentage in 2011-12 was 0.914 drastically different then the modern NHL (average 0.900) where goal scoring is up and save percentages are down.

Secondly Holtby's career playoff save percentage is 0.926.

Contrast that against the career save percentage's of Brodeur 0.919, P. Roy 0.918, and Hasek 0.925

Ovechkin had better playoff goaltending than the 3 most prominent HOF goaltenders and still only made it past the 2nd round a single time in his career, McDavid has already done that twice, kind of defeats your whole argument that goaltending is this singular thing that will make all the difference in the world and the only thing you talk about.

A realistic good goalie upgrade would be a 0.910 sv% that's well above average and quite solid, apply that upgrade to Skinner's total shots against last playoffs and that theoretical good goalie replacement allows 5 less goals against with that upgrade in save percentage.

Then you contrast that against 5 on 5 results alone, not even special teams and you have McLeod, Foegele, Desharnais, and D. Ryan each allowing 8 more GA than GF , Ceci a -6 goal differential, and Nurse a whopping -11 goal differential.

Nurse is playing some of the best hockey of his career this season, so maybe the issue is already half fixed, but very obviously we had significant issues with out 3rd/4th lines and 2nd pairing D that were on paper more impactful than goaltending.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

The D upgrade I've got me eye on is Brandon Carlo and failing that Nick Jensen.

 

[Scrapin Ice]

Matt Murray (no not Toronto's Matt) now playing for NASHville/Milwaukee Admirals continuing to provide evidence he is ready for another shot at the show.
Goalie for those who don't know, Played for Spruce Grove. St. Albert boy. Played for UMass and then Texas Stars.
Lets blow out Colin and give them a B prospect.

Both Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey pushing the bubble for NJD. Simon already has 80 games in the NHL. Agent likely jumping up and down. Soon New Jersey will make a move ...before February is my guess.

 

[Scrapin Ice]

The D upgrade I've got me eye on is Brandon Carlo and failing that Nick Jensen.

Brandon Carlo would be ideal but is a fantasy. Bruins need a top line center desperately. You have one of those to throw around?
Or they will take a top 10 1st+ maybe. We dont have our '25.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Since there's a couple of days til the next game... so I did a little stats crunching using the stats over at naturalstatrick.

What I did was looked at every game that Skinner and Pickard have played this season vs every opponent they have faced.

I looked at what every opponent the Oilers have faced so far currently have in terms of High danger shooting %, Medium danger shooting % and Low danger shooting % and then looked at how many of those types of shots were faced by both Pickard and Skinner in each of their games vs each opponent.

So this is basically a way to calculate expected save pct and expected goals against when adjusted for the level of shooting % each opponent has in terms of their HD, MD and LD shooting % so far this season. In theory this should better show how each goaltender has done taking into account the strength of opposition they have actually faced.

So here's the numbers as of now:

Pickard has an expected save pct of 91.251% based on the opposition he has faced and the number of HD, MD and LD shots + other shots he has faced from each opponent in each appearance he's made.

Pickard's actual save pct is 90.079%
That's an underperformance of 1.172% below what would be expected by looking at the number and types of shots faced as well as the quality of shooting % (HD%, MD%, LD%) of the competition he faced.


Skinner has an expected save pct of 89.785% based on the opposition he has faced and the number of HD, MD and LD shots + other shots he has faced from each opponent in each appearance he's made.

Skinner's actual save pct is 89.184%
That's an underperformance of 0.601% below what would be expected by looking at the number and types of shots faced as well as the quality of shooting % (HD%, MD%, LD%) of the competition he faced.


So the takeways imo are that Skinner indeed does face tougher competition... basically the opponents he has faced are ~1.47% better on average in terms of their finishing abilities on the HD+MD+LD shots they take than Pickard has faced.

Both goalies are underperforming though... Skinner by about .60% and Pickard by about 1.17%.

That works out to Pickard allowing 25 goal against when the numbers show that expectations are that he should have allowed 22.0478 goals... so essentially he has cost the team 3 goals against.

Skinner has allowed 61 GA when the numbers show he should have allowed 57.6126 GA... so he's cost the team ~3 goals against as well.

So an extra combined 6 goals against because of below average goaltending may not sound like a lot but it isn't insignificant when you project those numbers over a full season. Projects out to ~17 more goals against because of the below average goaltending on the team (if they continue to play at the overall level they've played so far this year).


There is good news though...

Skinner in the last 4 games has had 12 GA vs an expected 14.273 GA and in the previous set of 4 games to those... 9 GA vs an expected 10.807 GA... so he is playing better. It just remains to be seen whether that improvement will continue.

Pickard showing moderate improvement as well... last 4 games he allowed 9 GA vs an expected 10.438 and in the previous set of 4 games to those... 8GA vs an expected 7.587... ie just a bit worse than expected.

I found these stats a little interesting when done this way because most of the "expected" stats out there don't really take into account the actual quality of the competition (shooting % of each actual opponent in terms of HD, MD and LD shots) that each goalie actually faces over the course of a season.

 

[McDNicks17]

A marginal upgrade? Over Stecher? Since moving to Montreal Matheson has put up .7 points per game. He had 62 points last year alone. It has taken Stecher the past 7 years to put up that many points. A marginal upgrade is a little bit pessimistic.

That's why he's a waste of assets. You're paying a huge price for a 62 point guy who only got there because he was playing Bouchard-esque PP minutes.

Matheson had 21 5v5 points last year. One more than Cody Ceci. He isn't going to be playing 3+ minutes of PP per game here, so that's what you'll be getting from him.