Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Y'all Got Any Good Goalies?

[McDNicks17]

Drowns him with usage? Hes the 3rd most 5on5 minutes.

I don't think many people realize he's playing a minute less of 5v5 per game than Kulak.

And that he has 2 more 5v5 points than Stecher.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

How are Brobergs fancies? The more I watch him the more I think he doesn’t look very good.

 

[iCanada]

How are Brobergs fancies? The more I watch him the more I think he doesn’t look very good.

Not great.

His possession metrics are all in the low to mid 40s.

His on ice goals metrics suck - 13.9 xGF, 15.8 xGA, 47.48 xGF%. He gets caved in scoring chances - 147 for, 184 against. He does well in in high danger scoring chances at 63 for to 58 against.

He's propped up by a 1.044 PDO, which largely comes from an impressively large on ice save percentage of 97.8% that I've never really seen before and I'd call an artifact of luck.

He's also getting the biggest offensive zone push on his team.

 

[McHelpus]

Bob Stauffer says the Oilers won’t be making a change in net but they will be adding a top 4 defender. He also says the bottom six needs a new dimension and is talking about switching players

Jeff Skinner gotta go

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Drowns him with usage? Hes the 3rd most 5on5 minutes.

I mean, yes.

24:30/game is 15th overall among all defenceman
3:30/game on the PK is 5th overall among all defenceman
3:00/game on the PP is 24th overall among all defenceman

And it's not like his partner is providing much support, unless you're super high on the rookie/sophomore Hutson/Guhle or the corpse of David Savard.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Not great.

His possession metrics are all in the low to mid 40s.

His on ice goals metrics suck - 13.9 xGF, 15.8 xGA, 47.48 xGF%. He gets caved in scoring chances - 147 for, 184 against. He does well in in high danger scoring chances at 63 for to 58 against.

He's propped up by a 1.044 PDO, which largely comes from an impressively large on ice save percentage of 97.8% that I've never really seen before and I'd call an artifact of luck.

He's also getting the biggest offensive zone push on his team.

This is a misrepresentation of what's going on in St. Louis and looking at Broberg in a vaccuum without context. He is actually leading Blues top 4 defenders by quite a bit in most possession metrics as seen in the chart below. His is also one of the only players on the entire team with an >50% HDCF differential. And the other defenders tend to do better with Broberg on the ice than without. The reality is that the Blues are an absolute disaster of a team and when your teammates suck and your system is nonfunctional, you're not gonna have pretty shot metrics (even McDrai had bad raw possession numbers during the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons because they were stuck with linemates who belonged nowhere near a top 6 NHL lineup like Chiasson/Neal/Kassian etc and had poor support from bad defensemen like Adam Larsson).

He is also most certainly not being propped up with gratuitous offensive zone deployment and in fact he's actually being deployed more often in the defensive zone both on an absolute and relative to teammates basis. He's 3rd on the team in quality of competition, so while he's not exactly being deployed like 2021-22 Darnell Nurse or 2022-24 Moritz Seider, he's not exactly sheltered either.

His plus minus and points pace are indeed being propped up by PDO and he will probably not be scoring over 50 points and going +30 this year. But he is without question the best defenseman on the St. Louis Blues both in terms of possession metrics and the eye test (I've watched way too many Blues games this season than what is mentally healthy) and would do even better on a superior system with better teammates like the Oilers.

 

[jukon]

As much as I want us to trade for a better backup than Picard, it's wasted assets unless we fire Schwartz.

Do you think the Oilers would ever do a video on Schwartz?

 

[iCanada]

As much as I want us to trade for a better backup than Picard, it's wasted assets unless we fire Schwartz.

Do you think the Oilers would ever do a video on Schwartz?

They have done video on Schwartz. It was laughable.

 

[VeteranPresence]

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and don't believe Schwartz is some sort of Rasputin power to doltify the organization's leadership group and team. Jackson has been an interventionist CEO immediately upon the organization so he's not afraid to make big changes.

But you've soundly hit the nail on the head right here- despite Jackson shaking up nearly every other area in the short time since being hired, he hasn't touched goaltending. The same held true for Chiarelli and Holland, who were also brought in after Schwartz. Did all three men come to the same baffling conclusion that Dustin is the best possible hire? Or is something else at play here?

Reality is Jackson has actively promoted building a modern NHL organization that is information based in its decision making. Knoblauch is also an analytic fluent coach. So I have to believe they are comfortable with Skinner and the head coach has called him their best player several times in recent games. I doubt either or Bowman either who's analytically inclined would blindly defer to Schwartz if their information, likely far deeply than public, tells another story.

Here's where your argument falls apart: if this group's decision making was based purely on analytics, Skinner would've been replaced before last year's playoffs even began. He was 42nd in SV% above expected, 46 in GAA above expected, and 36th in Goals Saved above expected during the 2023-24 regular season. He's worse in all those areas this season, including 78th in Goals Saved above expected right now.

This is backed up by the actual numbers that do matter (GAA and SV%) as well as the plain old eye test. Skinner looks and performs like the second-best goalie on the ice most nights because he objectively is. IF there are proprietary analytics at play here, they are DEEPLY flawed and need to be revisited right away. That also doesn't explain why we've kept the same coach, if all he's doing is coaching the position. Something clearly isn't right here, and reflected as such with his previous pupils too. This isn't a new problem.

Goaltending has been an after thought (other than the Campbell debacle spend) for a decade - at the NHL level recycling deeply baked veteran goaltenders other than a good run by Talbot (who's largely been a short-term journeyman since) and opting needle in the haystack volume lottery ticket approach which has only netted Skinner as an NHL level goalie.

And yet other teams in the past ten years have seen fit to try and change the environments in which their goaltenders develop, the techniques they use, and so on. Except us. Why? It defies logical explanation. That leaves only some other external factor at play here.

I really wish it wasn't the case, because there's no fixing it if the org is allowing friendships/relationships to dictate their decision making. But to go back to your opening point, how do three separate and allegedly intelligent hockey executives all land on the same conclusion about Schwartz that isn't backed up by data or performance? The answer is, they don't, which means we're f***ed until things are allowed to change.

 

[CanadasTeam99]

As much as I want us to trade for a better backup than Picard, it's wasted assets unless we fire Schwartz.

Do you think the Oilers would ever do a video on Schwartz?

This guy probably makes Schwartz look like a used car salesman

Leave it to the Oilers org to not even try changing the goalie coach. Change nothing.

 

[Soundwave]

But you've soundly hit the nail on the head right here- despite Jackson shaking up nearly every other area in the short time since being hired, he hasn't touched goaltending. The same held true for Chiarelli and Holland, who were also brought in after Schwartz. Did all three men come to the same baffling conclusion that Dustin is the best possible hire? Or is something else at play here?



Here's where your argument falls apart: if this group's decision making was based purely on analytics, Skinner would've been replaced before last year's playoffs even began. He was 42nd in SV% above expected, 46 in GAA above expected, and 36th in Goals Saved above expected during the 2023-24 regular season. He's worse in all those areas this season, including 78th in Goals Saved above expected right now.

This is backed up by the actual numbers that do matter (GAA and SV%) as well as the plain old eye test. Skinner looks and performs like the second-best goalie on the ice most nights because he objectively is. IF there are proprietary analytics at play here, they are DEEPLY flawed and need to be revisited right away. That also doesn't explain why we've kept the same coach, if all he's doing is coaching the position. Something clearly isn't right here, and reflected as such with his previous pupils too. This isn't a new problem.



And yet other teams in the past ten years have seen fit to try and change the environments in which their goaltenders develop, the techniques they use, and so on. Except us. Why? It defies logical explanation. That leaves only some other external factor at play here.

I really wish it wasn't the case, because there's no fixing it if the org is allowing friendships/relationships to dictate their decision making. But to go back to your opening point, how do three separate and allegedly intelligent hockey executives all land on the same conclusion about Schwartz that isn't backed up by data or performance? The answer is, they don't, which means we're f***ed until things are allowed to change.

Asset management 101 brought to you by the Oilers.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Asset management 101 brought to you by the Oilers.

Don't forget paying a 1st for a glorified 4th line center and then paying him 3 million a year so you can't keep two vastly superior young forwards.

 

[Soundwave]

Don't forget paying a 1st for a glorified 4th line center and then paying him 3 million a year so you can't keep two vastly superior young forwards.

You know that masterstroke left even Chiarelli in awe. Also said player is 34 turning 35 years old, lol.

 

[Oilhawks]

OR maybe, just maybe things aren't as bad as HFoil doomers think.

Truth is usually in the middle. Oilers Reddit is delusional.

Skinner isn’t the worst goalie ever and he has good streaks, but he’s also not nearly as good as his fans suggest

 

[K1984]

Well, it's consistently bad results and an obviously poor defensive skill set that would keep me miles away from Matheson. His decision making is always at a "bad Nurse" level.

If you're giving up premium assets, you might as well as actually target someone that's a good fit. More terrible defensive hockey IQ is kind of the last thing this team needs. It's already their achilles heel on most night when Skinner isn't letting in every other shot.

Depends on what you think we need.

I think we need a player that can skate and is an adept puck mover. Last night especially underscored the need to move the puck faster. I don’t think it’s possible to acquire an “all of the above” player that is fast, can pass, can play both sides, and can push/join the rush AND be amazing defensively. I think we need more of the former, not the latter.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Not great.

His possession metrics are all in the low to mid 40s.

His on ice goals metrics suck - 13.9 xGF, 15.8 xGA, 47.48 xGF%. He gets caved in scoring chances - 147 for, 184 against. He does well in in high danger scoring chances at 63 for to 58 against.

He's propped up by a 1.044 PDO, which largely comes from an impressively large on ice save percentage of 97.8% that I've never really seen before and I'd call an artifact of luck.

He's also getting the biggest offensive zone push on his team.

Makes sense. Im always wondering how he isn’t a minus player but the insane goalie sv% when he’s on the ice explains that.

 

[iCanada]

Makes sense. Im always wondering how he isn’t a minus player but the insane goalie sv% when he’s on the ice explains that.

Basically his on ice save percentage is like if every the you scored on Skinner, instead of getting a goal, you got to take a shot on a real goaltender.

It's kind of absurd.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

haven't heard anyone complain about Ryan McLeod lately

wonder if his 0g-3a-3pts in his last 14 games had anything to do with it

 

[belair]

Asset management 101 brought to you by the Oilers.

You were one of Broberg's biggest critics a year ago. You have to appreciate the irony.

Are you suggesting that the Oilers should keep the defense as is? Because what Colorado paid for Blackwood isn't exactly'a dime'. And a comparable return would've included Skinner, the guy that's started 50+ games for us the past two seasons along with the necessary capital. That doesn't necessarily improve your team.

 

[VeteranPresence]

I wonder what it would cost us to acquire UPL? Buffalo has clearly quit on the season and Levi is the future, so no need for them to pay $4.75M into eternity on a starter who will be washed by the time they're relevant again (see: Gibson, John).

Stu is probably enough of a wildcard that Adams would go "eh, why not?" if we packaged him with one or two more interesting pieces. Makes even more sense if we can nab Jokiharju or Clifton in the same deal.

 

[Soundwave]

You were one of Broberg's biggest critics a year ago. You have to appreciate the irony.

Are you suggesting that the Oilers should keep the defense as is? Because what Colorado paid for Blackwood isn't exactly'a dime'. And a comparable return would've included Skinner, the guy that's started 50+ games for us the past two seasons along with the necessary capital. That doesn't necessarily improve your team.

So Stuart Skinner is roughly the equivalent of ... Georgeiv according to you?

Good luck ever winning anything with shit like that in net.

If that's too hard to upgrade on, the Oilers management can just go sit and cry in a corner and say it's too hard. Poor babies. There are 31 other teams that would give their left nut to have one of McDavid and Draisaitl, let alone both of them while this franchise dithers around the edges.

 

[Dirk Dangler]

Bouchard was really left in no man's land on that goal. Zero outlet options with two forecheckers and his D partner under pressure as well. One of the worst line changes I've ever seen because Skinner kept bitching about the non-call.

This is true. But, Bouchard should be at a point in his career that he realizes there are intelligent times to take an icing.

 

[belair]

So Stuart Skinner is roughly the equivalent of ... Georgeiv according to you?

Good luck ever winning anything with shit like that in net.

If that's too hard to upgrade on, the Oilers management can just go sit and cry in a corner and say it's too hard. There are 31 other teams that would give their left nut to have McDavid and Draisaitl while this franchise ditters around the edges.

As in he's the current underperforming starter and offsetting contract? Yes. When those goalies are on, they're similarly solid tenders. And when they're off, they're off.

You can't guarantee that another mid-tier starter is going to thrive in a new situation, regardless of the stats you've got available to you. It's a shot in the dark.

The Oilers can be certain that an add of a 20 minute a night D, or a stronger two-way C than we currently have available to us in Derek Ryan is going to make a tangible impact on how competitive the team is. You don't have the same certainty that Goalie x makes a save that Goalie y didn't.

 

[Soundwave]

 

[On The Prowl]

I am choosing to believe they are just posturing about not wanting a goalie, as soon as it becomes common knowledge they actually are desperately pursuing one the price increases.