Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | With Klingberg in the Mix Who Are Our 7D After the Deadline?

[Oilhawks]

I feel like this was a pretty informative breakdown of how it’s not a sure fire thing that Gibson would immediately be the savior here like many think. Two very specific scenarios that he struggles with that hypothetically would have resulted in 19 more goals against versus the tandem that’s currently here. It’s also a bit of insight into how much deeper of analytics actual teams have over what JFresh and Rono print into easily readable cards that are essentially clickbait.

Woodley knows his stuff when it comes to goaltenders and like Bobo pointed out, teams have far more information and data to chart their moves. I’m not opposed to Gibson but it has to be minimal cap and asset spend to mitigate the risk and they better be damn sure it’s going to be a net positive if you’re replacing a guy who you went to game 7 of the final with last year in favour of a guy who hasn’t played a meaningful game in 8 years.

Yes, there is risk. It exists for any goalie they could potentially bring in (ex: how well will they do in the team's system). But what we do know is Skinner has a history of not being consistent enough to 'bet the farm' with. He has had more poor series than good ones IMO. Could this change? Sure. Do the Oilers have time to waste worrying about that? Not really

Ideally they need to do what a lot of the Cup-winning teams have done the past while; have a tandem that you are confident playing either of them as a starter if the other falters. They currently do not have that. No secret that I'm not a fan of Skinner, but I think their best bet is to keep him and upgrade on Pickard with a sure-fire veteran tandem goalie that can take some pressure off Skinny. Pickard is a solid backup and there are things I like better about him, but clearly the org is not confident enough in him to give Skinner more a rest and split the starts more.

 

[Dirk Dangler]

I feel like this was a pretty informative breakdown of how it’s not a sure fire thing that Gibson would immediately be the savior here like many think. Two very specific scenarios that he struggles with that hypothetically would have resulted in 19 more goals against versus the tandem that’s currently here. It’s also a bit of insight into how much deeper of analytics actual teams have over what JFresh and Rono print into easily readable cards that are essentially clickbait.

Except that’s not quite what he says in that clip. In the clip he points out the two very specific situations that are worst parts of Gibsons game and extrapolates that the averages of those micro stats multiplied by the amount of those opportunities the oilers gave up it could be 19 more goals. But only in those exact circumstances.

He also mentions very quickly near the end of the clip that the team needs to look at all their data. And the missing data is everything else. What about the things Gibson is the best at? What about the things he does better than our goalies? These things could more than offset the 19 goals and end up with a reduction in goals against.

I mean, you wouldn’t just look at mcdavids two worst micro stats and say he’s no good because of them. You would have to weigh those two bad stats against all the things he does well and better than anyone else in the world to figure out his true value.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Yep he’s been racking up those playoff wins. He’s been in that net, in that room with those guys.

I’m not saying they don’t bring in an insurance policy if the right deal is out there but a lot of you guys are going to have to get right with Skinner because he’s their guy and he’s not going anywhere.

No thanks but you can accept bad goaltending all you want. I have a feeling he won’t be the guy come playoffs.

The Oilers are a wagon of a team but goaltending is the chink in the armour. Flat out guarantee every single team knows this.

 

[Soundwave]

Anaheim basically gave away Fowler for nothing and retained a big chunk of his salary (2.5 million) basically as they channeled that money into Trouba.

This wouldn't be that dissimilar, they let Gibson go to us in exchange for getting some money off their books which then goes into paying part of Dostal's raise essentially.

They very clearly have an internal cap, when someone gets a raise, money has to come off their books, Fowler had to go to make room for Trouba.

They're so cheap they didn't even let Fowler get to the 1000th game milestone there or whatever it was and shipped him out.

 

[ManOfSteelI]

I can't help but feel that they are exploring more than one goalie option, but we have only heard about Gibson so far. With the projected cap increases, they could consider going true 1A.. it's certainly more feasible than it was previously.

I keep coming back to thinking Saros would be the most realistic 1A option available. I would also think that if they are seriously considering making a goalie trade, they would want to do it during this break. Give themselves plenty of time to acclimate.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I can't help but feel that they are exploring more than one goalie option, but we have only heard about Gibson so far. With the projected cap increases, they could consider going true 1A.. it's certainly more feasible than it was previously.

I keep coming back to thinking Saros would be the most realistic 1A option available. I would also think that if they are seriously considering making a goalie trade, they would want to do it during this break. Give themselves plenty of time to acclimate.

I would almost guarantee they aren’t looking at goaltending at all.
The Gibson rumor is about where he would want to go, not what teams would want him.

 

[ManOfSteelI]

I would almost guarantee they aren’t looking at goaltending at all.
The Gibson rumor is about where he would want to go, not what teams would want him.

Call it wishful thinking if you want. We all hope that this is the management group that finally decides to address what has been staring all of their predecessors in the face. They bolstered their analytics team and they can only ignore all of the warning signs for so long.

There's never been a time that it has been more likely. Up to this point, there has never been so much as a whisper they would dare consider betraying Skinner.

It's not much, but there is a feeling in the air that it may be something they are at least thinking about.

---

I would also hope they are also noticing that Connor is struggling out there. He may very well not be able to replicate the historic playoff run he had last year again. Which is probably not an unrealistic expectation.

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure he's still be great. It's just hard not to think that run was likely his peak in terms of performance. Which would give all the more reason to focus on strengthening the weakest link.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

I can't help but feel that they are exploring more than one goalie option, but we have only heard about Gibson so far. With the projected cap increases, they could consider going true 1A.. it's certainly more feasible than it was previously.

I keep coming back to thinking Saros would be the most realistic 1A option available. I would also think that if they are seriously considering making a goalie trade, they would want to do it during this break. Give themselves plenty of time to acclimate.

I can't see Trotz trading their cornerstone goalie before the contract he committed to him even starts. That's a Vegas move, I don't see it as a Trotz move

 

[McBooya42]

Yikkkkkkkkkkkes. I mean, good on the man, but this tells me there's a severe disconnect between the higher ups in the org. Bowman is content to sit on his hands outside of waiver claims, Katz seemingly won't let anyone touch Schwartz, and Dusty will go to bat until the bitter end for his protege since it would be career suicide to admit his prized pupil sucks. That leaves the coach in a very tough spot, especially when his GM comes out just hours before and proclaims to the media that Stu is super awesome when all the evidence says otherwise.

We're in year ten of McDavid. Stop being muppets and get a f***ing real goalie and/or goalie coach no matter whose ego or friendships it hurts. This isn't rocket appliances.

You have no clue what Stan has planned and neither do we. Spare us your couchside assumptions, and sky is falling rants please. It's exhausting.

 

[ManOfSteelI]

I can't see Trotz trading their cornerstone goalie before the contract he committed to him even starts. That's a Vegas move, I don't see it as a Trotz move

Crazier things have happened

 

[BarDownBobo]

Except that’s not quite what he says in that clip. In the clip he points out the two very specific situations that are worst parts of Gibsons game and extrapolates that the averages of those micro stats multiplied by the amount of those opportunities the oilers gave up it could be 19 more goals. But only in those exact circumstances.

He also mentions very quickly near the end of the clip that the team needs to look at all their data. And the missing data is everything else. What about the things Gibson is the best at? What about the things he does better than our goalies? These things could more than offset the 19 goals and end up with a reduction in goals against.

I mean, you wouldn’t just look at mcdavids two worst micro stats and say he’s no good because of them. You would have to weigh those two bad stats against all the things he does well and better than anyone else in the world to figure out his true value.

You’ve basically just expanded on what I was saying though. There’s waaay more that goes into it than is publicly available, and the org will have to look into all of that data. But what the clip does do is show a peek behind the curtains on some of those numbers and that it isn’t necessarily a slam dunk that Gibson would be this monumental improvement on what’s here like a lot of people in this thread are saying. Of course he’s also got the best aspects to his game that would counteract the negative shown here, but it’s a matter of by how much.

 

[foshizzle]

Call it wishful thinking if you want. We all hope that this is the management group that finally decides to address what has been staring all of their predecessors in the face. They bolstered their analytics team and they can only ignore all of the warning signs for so long.

There's never been a time that it has been more likely. Up to this point, there has never been so much as a whisper they would dare consider betraying Skinner.

It's not much, but there is a feeling in the air that it may be something they are at least thinking about.

---

I would also hope they are also noticing that Connor is struggling out there. He may very well not be able to replicate the historic playoff run he had last year again. Which is probably not an unrealistic expectation.

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure he's still be great. It's just hard not to think that run was likely his peak in terms of performance. Which would give all the more reason to focus on strengthening the weakest link.

It’s not only McDavids historic run, it’s Bouchard’s, the PP’s, and the PK’s. They also won a series with a historic low save % of .833. Never has a team done that.

 

[foshizzle]

You’ve basically just expanded on what I was saying though. There’s waaay more that goes into it than is publicly available, and the org will have to look into all of that data. But what the clip does do is show a peek behind the curtains on some of those numbers and that it isn’t necessarily a slam dunk that Gibson would be this monumental improvement on what’s here like a lot of people in this thread are saying. Of course he’s also got the best aspects to his game that would counteract the negative shown here, but it’s a matter of by how much.

Yes- they will look into all those microstats- but at the end of the day- it will always come down to is the goalie making the saves he is supposed to? Woodley is looking at high danger only- which Stu isn’t too bad in. Where Stu kills you is in the low danger/mid danger chances. The two situations highlighted by Woodley didnt cover the “along the ice slapshots from the blue line” or “wrist shots with no screen from just inside the blue line”. Those are killers in the playoffs

 

[5 14 6 1]

I'm on the get Gibson train

 

[Oilhawks]

You’ve basically just expanded on what I was saying though. There’s waaay more that goes into it than is publicly available, and the org will have to look into all of that data. But what the clip does do is show a peek behind the curtains on some of those numbers and that it isn’t necessarily a slam dunk that Gibson would be this monumental improvement on what’s here like a lot of people in this thread are saying. Of course he’s also got the best aspects to his game that would counteract the negative shown here, but it’s a matter of by how much.

Ideally they add Gibson while keeping Skinner (and maybe even Pickard to AHL). Having a guy like Gibson will (properly) push Skinner, perhaps he ends up reaching his potential and they have the 'problem' of deciding who to keep when Skinner is up for a raise.

It would be great to have appropriate goaltending depth for a run this year. 1A Gibson, 1B Skinner and Pickard as a solid #2 for injury insurance etc.

 

[Fourier]

It's not about the cap, it's about the actual money. How much do you think Pat Verbeek wants to suggest to his ownership that it's a great idea spending north of $14m on a longtime employee NOT playing there? It's unrealistic.

Anaheim, as a franchise, is ready for stability. They're trying to improve. And i don't think they're necessarily pushing Gibson out the door, even if he's verbalizing his preference to compete.

Gibson is a guy with a 10 team NTC that's probably even smaller considering the actual market. And Verbeek is known to be a ruthless negotiator. If the Ducks don't end up getting the deal they want, there's a very good chance that Gibson finishes his contract in Anaheim.

There is more than one way to look at the money issue though. Let's suppose that Dostal is their guy and they expect him to be starting 50+ games for them over the next few years. Then you have to ask should we be paying $6.4M for a back-up or should we go out and sign a decent vet for say $1.5M while eating an addition $3.2M if the difference might be 1 or 2 wins on the season, especially if we could use the assets from the deal to recoup those wins later on when we are ready to compete? You are actually saving $1.7M per year in this scenario.

This is the unique challenge with paying big money for a goalie. A $6.4M forward who fades as a top 6 guy can often still be used effectively in other roles. But a goalie that is not your top dog sits on the bench and does not help you in any way in the majority of games your team plays.

Now Anaheim may well not be at a point where they are fully committed to Dostal. Right now Gibson is still getting an equal share or even slightly more of the games. So they may not be at that place where eating $3.2M makes sense relative to what Gibson brings to the team if he stays. But my guess is that once Dostal is making big dollars the decision to keep two guys will be a lot more of a challenge.

 

[McSuper]

I always defended Skinner. I like home grown talent. Having said that I don't think Skinner can handle a full work load of a 1A goalie. His bad game are AHL bad, his good games are NHL elite. Not sure how we fit Gibson in under the cap unless Skinner goes the other way. Does this team want to bet on an often injured Gibson and Pickard ? The thing about Gibson he seem to get better with a high work load Skinner falters. Management should talk to Gibson and tell him he is starter and will get 55 to 60 games a year.

Ducks may take Henrique back and Pickard. RNH can play 3rd line C or we can go after a 3rd C

 

[McDNicks17]

I feel like this was a pretty informative breakdown of how it’s not a sure fire thing that Gibson would immediately be the savior here like many think. Two very specific scenarios that he struggles with that hypothetically would have resulted in 19 more goals against versus the tandem that’s currently here. It’s also a bit of insight into how much deeper of analytics actual teams have over what JFresh and Rono print into easily readable cards that are essentially clickbait.

I'm not sure Kevin Woodley is the right guy to pump tires over analytics. He's the guy that said the Oilers have by far the best goaltending in the division based on those numbers haha.

Then Steve Valiquette, who has access to those numbers too, posted that Skinner has the worst SV% in the league over the past three years against rush shots with left-right movement.