Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Where's The Beef?

[bucks_oil]

I believe it was. His wife doesn’t like us anymore.

Well in fairness, some days I'm not a huge fan of all y'all either

Also needs one of these...

And a few....

 

[TheNumber4]

Where are you getting $9M. That was the theoretical max at the start of the season if:
1) Kane remained out - has their been a material update on this?
2) We stayed with a lean, 21-man roster... but my understanding is that we carried 22 for most of Nov/Dec, so we didn't accrue as much.

Anyone have a trustworthy cap projection site? CapFriendly is gone and I'm not sure PuckPedia accounts for <22-man rosters... it's projecting us to only have $1M TDL-space before accounting for Kane.

I say $9Mish.

Yeh assuming we operated out of LTIR and had minimal call ups, we would have accrued around $4Mish. But that changes with call ups and stuff. So call it, $3-4Mish?

And with Kane, indications are he's back at the earliest in March and maybe even sitting the whole year. So there's an extra $5.25M to spend there.

This article and the puck pedia tweets within it, lay it out better:

Math Shows Best Way for Oilers to Manage Kane's Injury and Salary Cap

The Edmonton Oilers might have a couple of options to deal with Evander Kane's injury, but the math points to the best option.

nhltradetalk.com

 

[bucks_oil]

That's BS in my books. But apparently it's pretty hard to pull off and very rare. This is the first time salary deferral has been used on multiple years to reduce the cap him near 1.5M. Shouldn't really blame Oilers management for not doing it, since no other teams do it too at this level anyways. But I wouldnt mind if the Oilers f***ed around with the cap like this.

I read this explainer here:

https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/deferred#:~:text=Deferred%20compensation%20in%20NHL%20contracts,players'%20preference%20for%20immediate%20earnings.

I think it's pretty great.

I played around with the PuckPedia calculator... for those in a financial field, it's pretty much a straight time value of money / NPV calculator, with no adjustment in the coupon (interest) rate for risk or desired IRR.

Just playing around with it...

If Bouchard were to accept 8 years at $10M + $2M deferred and paid out annually beginning the year he expects to retire (say beginning in year 12, 4 years after the contract is up), the cap hit for us would be $11.120M rather than $12M.

Benefits to the team are obvious, but to Bouchard he also gets a significant tax advantage as he'll be taxed a much lower rate on that $2M when it is his only income vs when it is the last $2M of a $12M salary...

 

[TB12]

Yeah, I sometimes wonder if the "do something now" crowd appreciates the nuance of this argument. It should be obvious after the Oilers management has suffered through less than ideal roster situations all season in pursuit of this goal of maximizing cap at the deadline.

Like.

 

[K1984]

Yeah, I sometimes wonder if the "do something now" crowd appreciates the nuance of this argument. It should be obvious after the Oilers management has suffered through less than ideal roster situations all season in pursuit of this goal of maximizing cap at the deadline.

Other than maybe feeling better or needing something to talk about, I can't for the life of me figure out the argument to "do something now" regardless of the cap situation.

It isn't like we're losing games because of one issue that NEEDS to be addressed like the Avalanche had with their goaltending. We're clicking along and winning games, so there is no reason to go all out now only for probably dozens of players to come available closer to the deadline that aren't at the moment.

There are currently probably only about 4-6 true sellers that know they're going to miss and know they're going to sell. Those teams also don't have a lot of guys that are enticing to acquire. Once the Rangers, Islanders, Red Wings, Canadiens, Blue Jackets of the world truly realize that they're toast there will be a lot more to go after on the market.

 

[TheNumber4]

I think it's pretty great.

I played around with the PuckPedia calculator... for those in a financial field, it's pretty much a straight time value of money / NPV calculator, with no adjustment in the coupon (interest) rate for risk or desired IRR.

Just playing around with it...

If Bouchard were to accept 8 years at $10M + $2M deferred and paid out annually beginning the year he expects to retire (say beginning in year 12, 4 years after the contract is up), the cap hit for us would be $11.120M rather than $12M.

Benefits to the team are obvious, but to Bouchard he also gets a significant tax advantage as he'll be taxed a much lower rate on that $2M when it is his only income vs when it is the last $2M of a $12M salary...

Don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE if the Oilers used it to reduce long term contracts for our core players. But realistically, it's a tall ask of the player. Still, the Oilers would be negligent not to try for it. Here's hoping.

 

[McAsuno]

Here's free 2 months for Oilers+ for anybody that's interested

 

[Canovin]

I think it's pretty great.

I played around with the PuckPedia calculator... for those in a financial field, it's pretty much a straight time value of money / NPV calculator, with no adjustment in the coupon (interest) rate for risk or desired IRR.

Just playing around with it...

If Bouchard were to accept 8 years at $10M + $2M deferred and paid out annually beginning the year he expects to retire (say beginning in year 12, 4 years after the contract is up), the cap hit for us would be $11.120M rather than $12M.

Benefits to the team are obvious, but to Bouchard he also gets a significant tax advantage as he'll be taxed a much lower rate on that $2M when it is his only income vs when it is the last $2M of a $12M salary...

The Oilers are going to be in a world of hurt if Bouchard is signing for 10M and on top of that 2M deferred? lol

 

[McTonyBrar]

Ya I think Stecher is going to “lead us to a final.” Lol oh lord because that’s even close to what I said.

I do think we need to add a D to get through the western conference but the Oilers have played cup level defence this season and that’s just a fact. You can whine about Stecher all you want but he hasn’t been a problem…

I Agree with you that we have been good defensively and I agree that Stecher isn't the problem. I'm not whining about him nor am I worried about Stecher if he plays as a #6. I'm worried that, if we get an injury on our right side, Josh friggin Brown is in our defence core.

Plus, I'm not worried about our season. I'm worried about when the real show begins (Playoffs)

He went into the season hating Stecher before even watching him really play.

And now hes continuing it and hoping he fails.

Stecher has been getting scored on at the 2nd lowest rate on the Oilers.

Seems decent

I'm not even hating on him. Read my most recent post. An injury on our right side, without having any good depth, puts Josh Brown into the D core. Why do you always have a problem with me?

 

[Fourier]

Yeh none of us do. Were all just trying it out on educated guesses right. I think use Markstrom as the base example of the deal then add/subtract based on varying factors. So detract cause his track record is not as good, although current year its good, and detract cause he wants out. But then add cause we need retention. Ballpark, I think with retention were probably looking at a similar or slightly less than the Markstrom deal. Which is kind of expensive for a team that's not that desperate.

No chance I would want to see them use their 1st on Gibson even at 50%.

 

[McTonyBrar]

An update but not really an update from Bobfather on Oilers Now.

When it comes to a trade on defence or the bottom six, a text came in to ask him if he sees it happening at the deadline or before.

He said all he's going to say is that the Oilers have options so it could happen at any time. He also hinted that Oilers may make cost effective moves maybe when it comes to the bottom six (He's mentioned Drew O'Connor a lot lately and Mike McCarron)

 

[FlameChampion]

An update but not really an update from Bobfather on Oilers Now.

When it comes to a trade on defence or the bottom six, a text came in to ask him if he sees it happening at the deadline or before.

He said all he's going to say is that the Oilers have options so it could happen at any time. He also hinted that Oilers may make cost effective moves maybe when it comes to the bottom six (He's mentioned Drew O'Connor a lot lately and Mike McCarron)

I don’t get why were upgrading the bottom 6. The weakness lies in the middle 6.

Furthermore I don’t know why they can’t give some games to Philp, Rodrigues and Savoie to see what they got

 

[Fourier]

That's BS in my books. But apparently it's pretty hard to pull off and very rare. This is the first time salary deferral has been used on multiple years to reduce the cap him near 1.5M. Shouldn't really blame Oilers management for not doing it, since no other teams do it too at this level anyways. But I wouldnt mind if the Oilers f***ed around with the cap like this.

I read this explainer here:

https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/deferred#:~:text=Deferred%20compensation%20in%20NHL%20contracts,players'%20preference%20for%20immediate%20earnings.

The press does a very poor job of explaining this. As @bucks_oil says it is a pretty basic calculation for anyone with any finance background. In the end this is not really some big cap circumvention scheme. Teams are effectively charged for the full amount that they are spending on the player. The player simply receives future value of a dollar invested years down the road so as to potentially better manage their taxes.

Think of it this way. I could give you $.59 today or "invest" it for you at 5.5% and give you $1 10 years from now. In reality I am only spending $.59 today so that is what I should be charged on the cap.

I doubt we see a lot of this to be honest. But it could be an excellent tool in the right situation.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I don’t get why were upgrading the bottom 6. The weakness lies in the middle 6.

Furthermore I don’t know why they can’t give some games to Philp, Rodrigues and Savoie to see what they got

Half of the middle 6 is the bottom 6. We could use a better 3C option (move Henrique to wing) and more physicality in the bottom 6 as well.

I imagine Philp and Savoie will see some games soon. Rodrigue won't see any time unless its an emergency callup. No sense in losing him through waivers. Let him fight for the backup role next season.

 

[TheNumber4]

The press does a very poor job of explaining this. As @bucks_oil says it is a pretty basic calculation for anyone with any finance background. In the end this is not really some big cap circumvention scheme. Teams are effectively charged for the full amount that they are spending on the player. The player simply receives future value of a dollar invested years down the road so as to potentially better manage their taxes.

Think of it this way. I could give you $.59 today or "invest" it for you at 5.5% and give you $1 10 years from now. In reality I am only spending $.59 today so that is what I should be charged on the cap.

I doubt we see a lot of this to be honest. But it could be an excellent tool in the right situation.

I get the time value of money. And it all might make sense for the player from a tax management standpoint. BUT are they are still not offering the Player $18M of Value, which should translate to $6M per year, but only accounting for $4.5M on the Cap?

 

[FlameChampion]

Half of the middle 6 is the bottom 6. We could use a better 3C option (move Henrique to wing) and more physicality in the bottom 6 as well.

I imagine Philp and Savoie will see some games soon. Rodrigue won't see any time unless its an emergency callup. No sense in losing him through waivers. Let him fight for the backup role next season.

Yeah I consider Henrique middle 6. A lot of the guys making 2+m have been disappointing other than McDavid/Draisitl and maybe Hyman.

I think the bottom 6 guys or guys making less than 1.5 like Brown, Janmark, Podkolzin, Perry, Kapanen etc have done their jobs minus Ryan.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

The press does a very poor job of explaining this. As @bucks_oil says it is a pretty basic calculation for anyone with any finance background. In the end this is not really some big cap circumvention scheme. Teams are effectively charged for the full amount that they are spending on the player. The player simply receives future value of a dollar invested years down the road so as to potentially better manage their taxes.

Think of it this way. I could give you $.59 today or "invest" it for you at 5.5% and give you $1 10 years from now. In reality I am only spending $.59 today so that is what I should be charged on the cap.

I doubt we see a lot of this to be honest. But it could be an excellent tool in the right situation.

Yeah this won't be a tool we are likely to see used on elite players like McDavid.

I think you're most likely to see it on 2nd line forwards, top pair dmen etc. Guys who wont get a huge payday, but could make more this route through teams tight against the cap and going for it.

Arvidsson is an example of the type of player we could have tried this on (not saying he would have said yes). But offer him say 2.9 per year, and then give him 575K per year for 8 years starting 2035.

 

[K1984]

The press does a very poor job of explaining this. As @bucks_oil says it is a pretty basic calculation for anyone with any finance background. In the end this is not really some big cap circumvention scheme. Teams are effectively charged for the full amount that they are spending on the player. The player simply receives future value of a dollar invested years down the road so as to potentially better manage their taxes.

Think of it this way. I could give you $.59 today or "invest" it for you at 5.5% and give you $1 10 years from now. In reality I am only spending $.59 today so that is what I should be charged on the cap.

I doubt we see a lot of this to be honest. But it could be an excellent tool in the right situation.

Vatrano's situation also uniquely fits this scheme in a way that makes it attractive to the player.

He probably likes playing in Anaheim, and maybe he and his agent decided that they were going to pay the most as well. From there?

American? Check.

Currently plays in a high tax state? Check.

Future of living in a low tax state? Check.(I'm assuming Florida based on his past career there)

You kind of need to know with certainty where you're going to retire for this to work, and you can't move off of it. I've seen Bouchard's name bandied about as a guy to try this on, but unless he's already decided with certainty where he is going to retire this just doesn't work. Also doesn't work because he'll have more than 8 years left on his career.

 

[McDNicks17]

An update but not really an update from Bobfather on Oilers Now.

When it comes to a trade on defence or the bottom six, a text came in to ask him if he sees it happening at the deadline or before.

He said all he's going to say is that the Oilers have options so it could happen at any time. He also hinted that Oilers may make cost effective moves maybe when it comes to the bottom six (He's mentioned Drew O'Connor a lot lately and Mike McCarron)

O'Connor makes almost zero sense as a bottom six add.

He plays the Podkolzin role in PIT. Trading for a guy who plays with Malkin and Crosby and then throwing him on the 4th line is just a waste of assets.

 

[Shizuka]

Not sure if this has been brought up or not, but this is a direct quote from Matheson's mailbag article today:

Right now, the projected cap space for the Oilers at the March trade deadline is almost $3.5 million as they look for a veteran D (right or left shot) and maybe a bigger, right-shot fourth-line centre.

How is it they are looking externally at the trade deadline for this kind of player, WHEN THEY HAVE HIM PLAYING IN BAK CURRENTLY. How does this not spell Philp? Why the hell would they need to look outside when he's here in the organization? This kind of stupid shit is exactly why the front office remains a sad, bush league joke. Aside from the money it's no surprise Holloway and Broberg left for better opportunity.

 

[VeteranPresence]

Not sure if this has been brought up or not, but this is a direct quote from Matheson's mailbag article today:

Right now, the projected cap space for the Oilers at the March trade deadline is almost $3.5 million as they look for a veteran D (right or left shot) and maybe a bigger, right-shot fourth-line centre.

How is it they are looking externally at the trade deadline for this kind of player, WHEN THEY HAVE HIM PLAYING IN BAK CURRENTLY. How does this not spell Philp? Why the hell would they need to look outside when he's here in the organization? This kind of stupid shit is exactly why the front office remains a sad, bush league joke. Aside from the money it's no surprise Holloway and Broberg left for better opportunity.

Amen. This org is straight garbage at giving opportunities to young guys who earn them. It sets a horrendous example for future players so expect more offer sheets if we keep that up.

 

[Fourier]

I get the time value of money. And it all might make sense for the player from a tax management standpoint. BUT are they are still not offering the Player $18M of Value, which should translate to $6M per year, but only accounting for $4.5M on the Cap?

No they are not. The value is the present value of the money they pay him. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar promised in 10 years.

 

[TheNumber4]

Not sure if this has been brought up or not, but this is a direct quote from Matheson's mailbag article today:

Right now, the projected cap space for the Oilers at the March trade deadline is almost $3.5 million as they look for a veteran D (right or left shot) and maybe a bigger, right-shot fourth-line centre.

How is it they are looking externally at the trade deadline for this kind of player, WHEN THEY HAVE HIM PLAYING IN BAK CURRENTLY. How does this not spell Philp? Why the hell would they need to look outside when he's here in the organization? This kind of stupid shit is exactly why the front office remains a sad, bush league joke. Aside from the money it's no surprise Holloway and Broberg left for better opportunity.

"$3.5M"

Nice. Then Kane on LTIR would be $4.35M so 7.85M to spend. But maybe that accrual gets whittled down a bit more with call ups, so lets say the number armchair GMs wanna use is $7Mish conservatively. Still plenty to upgrade at the TDL.

Well what you quoted did say "maybe" they are looking for that. Which I think is ridiculous for the mere fact that we traded for 2 centers last year and resigned one as it is. But none of what you quoted confirms that the door is closed on Philp. We could very well see him as an internal option. I'd much rather that then spend assets on a Sam Carrick type that might not even be better than Derek Ryan.

 

[TB12]

Other than maybe feeling better or needing something to talk about, I can't for the life of me figure out the argument to "do something now" regardless of the cap situation.

It isn't like we're losing games because of one issue that NEEDS to be addressed like the Avalanche had with their goaltending. We're clicking along and winning games, so there is no reason to go all out now only for probably dozens of players to come available closer to the deadline that aren't at the moment.

There are currently probably only about 4-6 true sellers that know they're going to miss and know they're going to sell. Those teams also don't have a lot of guys that are enticing to acquire. Once the Rangers, Islanders, Red Wings, Canadiens, Blue Jackets of the world truly realize that they're toast there will be a lot more to go after on the market.

Like.

 

[TheNumber4]

No they are not. The value is the present value of the money they pay him. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar promised in 10 years.

I get the present value of money I studied finance too. But is that how contracts and AAVs are worked out? It's based on the PV of the money as opposed to just the total money given out? I guess so, if that's how the CBA has it.