Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Where's The Beef?

[foshizzle]

Weirder things have happened this season. Jacob Trouba not only didn't cost assets or retention to dump, he actually somehow returned a draft pick.

There's no shot you seriously think Jeff Skinner is playing at a 3 million dollar level, let alone underpaid. The guy is barely playing above a league minimum level.

I think a player on pace to score 15 goals will net you 3M in this league. I think a player on pace for 15 goals should be able to be moved without giving up assets- especially if that player was sought after in the off-season.

If you keep scrolling up- my response was to a poster saying he is PTO material and Oilers would need to give up assets to move- which I believe not to be the case.

 

[TheNumber4]

I didn’t say he didn’t suck and wasn’t a black hole on this team. The original response was the idea he is PTO material and Oilers would have to give up assets to move him this year which I don’t think they would. GMs are stupid and will look at his pace of scoring. Side note- Henrique and Skinner signing in lieu of Holloway looks worse every day


His numbers were better than Stu’s on a much worse teaM

He had one good year, the year after he got paid. Afterwards, below league average save percentage for 2 years before we dropped him (.899 vs. .908 and .903 vs .907). Stu was above league average (.914 vs. .904, and .905 vs .903) and this year it is still to be determined, but he's trending back up to League average and will probably finish above.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

You think the Oilers can move an severely underperforming 3M cap hit without adding?

I don't think it's that difficult to get a pick or even find a hockey trade for him.

Both BOS and OTT are needing a top 6 winger; Same with NYR, who now have a Kaapo Kakko sized hole on their LW. I can see all 3 being willing to do something similar to the Tatar to Seatle trade from last year.


There are also a few other teams. who have their own 2 to 3 mil player that's hasn't fit in this season and could be up for a change of scenery trade. Think of someone like Bjugstad, who's had a slow start in Utah.


Personally, a move I like is something like Skinner for a 5th and Max Jones from Boston (basically what Tatar went for). Jones played his way off the Bruins to start the year and at this point is just an AHL/NHL tweener. But he does have the size (and willingness to use it) to replace some of Kane's impact, plus he'd also bring some size to Bakersfield, who are missing a physical PF up front.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

And yet is on pace for 15 goals not playing with McDavid or Draisiatl and no PP time


Yep. And still is on pace for 15 goals playing minimal mins

At 7 minutes a night and rapidly heading to press box territory he’s getting nowhere near 15 goals with this team. Add in the fact he’s a -10, and a guy who’s supposed to be in the 30-40 goal mark, a PTO is a possibility as at 34 where he will be near the end of next season, you usually decline in ability.

 

[foshizzle]

He had one good year, the year after he got paid. Afterwards, below league average save percentage for 2 years before we dropped him (.899 vs. .908 and .903 vs .907). Stu was above league average (.914 vs. .904, and .905 vs .903) and this year it is still to be determined, but he's trending back up to League average and will probably finish above.

lol- those numbers are pretty similar. Biggest difference, Kosko’s teams didn’t have anywhere close to the structure this team plays with. The teams Kosko played on leaked high danger chances against.

At 7 minutes a night and rapidly heading to press box territory he’s getting nowhere near 15 goals with this team. Add in the fact he’s a -10, and a guy who’s supposed to be in the 30-40 goal mark, a PTO is a possibility as at 34 where he will be near the end of next season, you usually decline in ability.

He is 32 now- so not sure how he will be 34 at the end of the year. I guess we will just have to see what the trade market looks like

I don't think it's that difficult to get a pick or even find a hockey trade for him.

Both BOS and OTT are needing a top 6 winger; Same with NYR, who now have a Kaapo Kakko sized hole on their LW. I can see all 3 being willing to do something similar to the Tatar to Seatle trade from last year.


There are also a few other teams. who have their own 2 to 3 mil player that's hasn't fit in this season and could be up for a change of scenery trade. Think of someone like Bjugstad, who's had a slow start in Utah.


Personally, a move I like is something like Skinner for a 5th and Max Jones from Boston (basically what Tatar went for). Jones played his way off the Bruins to start the year and at this point is just an AHL/NHL tweener. But he does have the size (and willingness to use it) to replace some of Kane's impact, plus he'd also bring some size to Bakersfield, who are missing a physical PF up front.

Totally agree

 

[TheNumber4]

lol- those numbers are pretty similar. Biggest difference, Kosko’s teams didn’t have anywhere close to the structure this team plays with. The teams Kosko played on leaked high danger chances against.


He is 32 now- so not sure how he will be 34 at the end of the year. I guess we will just have to see what the trade market looks like


Totally agree

Kosko played for a worst team, sure. So let's look at GsaX, and I know you love that stat. Same years from before:

Kosko:
-6.8
-10.2

Stu:
+6.8
+2.0

 

[AddyTheWrath]

I like how people speak in absolutes about skinner. As if any of us know what he’s thinking right now

 

[TheNumber4]

I like how people speak in absolutes about skinner. As if any of us know what he’s thinking right now

My prediction, he’s thinking: “I’m going to score some f***in goals and show this town who I really am. Cause I’m Jeff f***in Skinner and I score f***in goals and always have.”

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I still think if we want to go a certain direction lower in the lineup, we call Columbus and see what the cost of Olivier is on his own, and with something like Provorov. Olivier is more than a face puncher.

Olivier would check a LOT of boxes in the bottom 6. I'm almost afraid to ask what the ask from Columbus would be.

My big question if you’re looking to add a forward who’s coming out? When the team gets healthy you’ve already got 14 forward on the roster, 10 of which are probably locks to be in the lineup game 1 of the playoffs(McDavid Drai RNH Hyman Kane Arvidsson Janmark Henrique Podkolzin Brown). Kapanen is doing a great job of fitting so far carving out a niche and if he continues to do so he’ll earn a spot in that lineup, plus you’ve got the vets Perry and Ryan and the wildcard in Skinner. Ideally they need to bring in a 4C who could very well already be in house with Philp, but outside of that I’m not sure the need to bring in more up front is really there.

Ryan is the obvious one, Arvidsson is a band-aid and Skinner may or may not want out. Kapanen has done enough to stick around IMO.

Al
Always like Hathaways game

The type of player you hate playing against but love on your team.

 

[McTedi]

Olivier would check a LOT of boxes in the bottom 6. I'm almost afraid to ask what the ask from Columbus would be.

Ryan is the obvious one, Arvidsson is a band-aid and Skinner may or may not want out. Kapanen has done enough to stick around IMO.

The type of player you hate playing against but love on your team.

I’d like them to shake up the bottom 6 and still want to see more of Philp. Just not sure how Bowman can accomplish the moves. Ideally you’d like to see J Skinner and Ryan get sent but both are unattractive pieces. Brown and Janmark have their moments and were awesome at clutch times in the playoffs.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

I’d like them to shake up the bottom 6 and still want to see more of Philp. Just not sure how Bowman can accomplish the moves. Ideally you’d like to see J Skinner and Ryan get sent but both are unattractive pieces. Brown and Janmark have their moments and were awesome at clutch times in the playoffs.

From what I've heard Philp has not warranted a call up since he's gone back down to Bako. Sounds like the adrenaline has warn off and his conditioning has caught up to him from taking the year off.

 

[Scrapin Ice]

From what I've heard Philp has not warranted a call up since he's gone back down to Bako. Sounds like the adrenaline has warn off and his conditioning has caught up to him from taking the year off.

Its very nice that you have heard something.

 

[Fourier]

You think the Oilers can move an severely underperforming 3M cap hit without adding?

Skinner makes $3M not $9M though. He is 334th on the pay scale in the NHL. That means on average he is the 11th highest paid palyer on a team. Factoring in top end ELCS he is actually being paid like a low end 3rd liner.

Regardless of what the expectations are with the Oilers in the big scheme of things from a production perspective he is not really underperforming that deal by much if any. He is on pace for 15 goals and 30 points playing mostly in the bottom six and with virtually no real pp time. To put this in perspective last year only 141 forwards had 15 ES goals. That is an average of just over 4 per team. So far this year only 121 forwards have more ES goals. And his sh% is still significantly under his historical average. If he was at that average he would have 9 goals. Even in the bottom six he is still getting shots on goal.

I am not suggesting that he will get a big return or even that it might not cost something to move him. But if it did it would not be much. He is on an expiring deal that at the deadline would have about $750K left in actual money. The biggest obstacle here is that he has a full NMC. He may well want to waive it rather than being relegated to 4th line roles but who knows. He may feel like a shot at the playoffs is worth the trouble.

 

[brentashton]

Yes. 15 goals at 3M is not underperforming

Where are you getting 15 goals from? Extrapolate all you want, that isn’t happening. Its like people who think a player scoring in the first game off the season is expected to score 82 goals.

He’s getting less and lessmice time as the season progresses and is playing down the line up. His production is headed toward a big stop (I won’t say decline, because it’s already in that territory). Farcical really.

 

[brentashton]

. He is on pace for 15 goals and 30 points playing mostly in the bottom six and with virtually no real pp time. To put this in perspective last year only 141 forwards had 15 ES goals. That is an average of just over 4 per team. So far this year only 121 forwards have more ES goals. And his sh% is still significantly under his historical average. If he was at that average he would have 9 goals. Even in the bottom six he is still getting shots on goal.

His Ice time is dwindling and he is playing lower and lower in the the lineup each game, his SOG declined by a 1/3 each month Oct -Dec, yet you believe it’s realistic to extrapolate his production from the start of the year? That math doesn’t seem plausible.

I highly doubt he’s a 15 goal,scorer for the Oilers at year end, other teams will see the decline as well. Someone may take a chance on him, perhaps, but most likely it will have to be sweetened to do so.,I dont believe it will be a one for one deal.

 

[Fourier]

His Ice time is dwindling and he is playing lower and lower in the the lineup each game, his SOG declined by a 1/3 each month Oct -Dec, yet you believe it’s realistic to extrapolate his production from the start of the year? That math doesn’t seem plausible.

I highly doubt he’s a 15 goal,scorer for the Oilers at year end, other teams will see the decline as well. Someone may take a chance on him, perhaps, but most likely it will have to be sweetened to do so.,I dont believe it will be a one for one deal.

You have to look at the reason for the extrapolation. It's not to predict what he will end up with if he stays with the Oilers. He may well not maintain that pace if he plays the year out on the Oilers. But what is being discussed is a possible trade. In such a scenario you assess what he has produced relative to his salary at the time he is dealt. The extrapolation just gives perspective on what he has done so far offensively at a $3M salary.

I doubt any team trades for him to be a 4th liner so his lack of production in that role is not so relevant. They would be looking at his potential to score in their top six. So far he has shown that he is still able to do this at a pace that is consistent or better than his current pay grade. That said it is worth noting that while his shots have gone down with his reduced ice time his production has not really faltered. I could see a team like Chicago taking him for essentially free. They trade Hall with retention for assets and bring in Skinner for free. Now would Skinner waive to go to Chicago? Its not clear, but they do have a reputation for treating players very well. It is close to his home. And he could get some pp time.

The point is that even if he is a disappointment on the Oilers. For what he is paid he is not underproducing relative to others around the league.

 

[brentashton]

You have to look at the reason for the extrapolation. It's not to predict what he will end up with if he stays with the Oilers. He may well not maintain that pace if he plays the year out on the Oilers. But what is being discussed is a possible trade. In such a scenario you assess what he has produced relative to his salary at the time he is dealt. The extrapolation just gives perspective on what he has done so far offensively at a $3M salary.

I doubt any team trades for him to be a 4th liner so his lack of production in that role is not so relevant. They would be looking at his potential to score in their top six. So far he has shown that he is still able to do this at a pace that is consistent or better than his current pay grade. That said it is worth noting that while his shots have gone down with his reduced ice time his production has not really faltered. I could see a team like Chicago taking him for essentially free. They trade Hall with retention for assets and bring in Skinner for free. Now would Skinner waive to go to Chicago? Its not clear, but they do have a reputation for treating players very well. It is close to his home. And he could get some pp time.

The point is that even if he is a disappointment on the Oilers. For what he is paid he is not underproducing relative to others around the league.

I appreciate your perspectives and knowledge, as always Fourier. I will politely disagree with you on this matter and move on.

PS, I find it interesting that you are suggesting that CHI is an org that treats its players “very well”. Recent events and the mistreatment of their storied alumni for decades might suggest otherwise. I know they are working to be better, but I couldn’t put them in that category. Great sports town though.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

lHe is 32 now- so not sure how he will be 34 at the end of the year. I guess we will just have to see what the trade market looks like

He is 33 shortly, he will be 34 at the end of next season which in 2026 which is what I said, not at the end of the year per your quote above.

 

[AM]

My prediction, he’s thinking: “I’m going to score some f***in goals and show this town who I really am. Cause I’m Jeff f***in Skinner and I score f***in goals and always have.”

Sounds good to me.

 

[Fourier]

I appreciate your perspectives and knowledge, as always Fourier. I will politely disagree with you on this matter and move on.

PS, I find it interesting that you are suggesting that CHI is an org that treats its players “very well”. Recent events and the mistreatment of their storied alumni for decades might suggest otherwise. I know they are working to be better, but I couldn’t put them in that category. Great sports town though.

No problem. It is absolutely possible that the Oilers might need to add something to move Skinner especially if he is picky on where he will go.

I wish I could find Perlini's description of how Hawks players were treated. Things like gourmet meals on all flights etc. But in the end they were just an example.

 

[Mr Positive]

Skinner makes $3M not $9M though. He is 334th on the pay scale in the NHL. That means on average he is the 11th highest paid palyer on a team. Factoring in top end ELCS he is actually being paid like a low end 3rd liner.

Regardless of what the expectations are with the Oilers in the big scheme of things from a production perspective he is not really underperforming that deal by much if any. He is on pace for 15 goals and 30 points playing mostly in the bottom six and with virtually no real pp time. To put this in perspective last year only 141 forwards had 15 ES goals. That is an average of just over 4 per team. So far this year only 121 forwards have more ES goals. And his sh% is still significantly under his historical average. If he was at that average he would have 9 goals. Even in the bottom six he is still getting shots on goal.

I am not suggesting that he will get a big return or even that it might not cost something to move him. But if it did it would not be much. He is on an expiring deal that at the deadline would have about $750K left in actual money. The biggest obstacle here is that he has a full NMC. He may well want to waive it rather than being relegated to 4th line roles but who knows. He may feel like a shot at the playoffs is worth the trouble.

He hasn't got to see playoffs yet. I'm okay with trying to trade him but it has to be a team headed to the playoffs with certainty.

Skinner will want to hang on. He may get a long look in the top six if we get a couple injuries, and maybe he's willing to keep toiling in the bottom six and working on his game to earn his way up there.

What I don't buy at all is that he would want to go to any team that would give him top six and PP time, just so he could pad his stats for his next contract. He already had earned all the money he wants. He wants playoffs. Also, I don't think him padding his stats on an awful team will earn him much extra money.

And btw it is too early to write off Skinner. Look at how long Brown took to find his game. He became an important playoff performer. Skinner would notice that too and aim for that. I'd guess management and coaching feels the same. They have enough to worry about besides paying someone to take Skinner, and probably believe his talent will eventually redeem him

 

[Fourier]

He hasn't got to see playoffs yet. I'm okay with trying to trade him but it has to be a team headed to the playoffs with certainty.

Skinner will want to hang on. He may get a long look in the top six if we get a couple injuries, and maybe he's willing to keep toiling in the bottom six and working on his game to earn his way up there.

What I don't buy at all is that he would want to go to any team that would give him top six and PP time, just so he could pad his stats for his next contract. He already had earned all the money he wants. He wants playoffs. Also, I don't think him padding his stats on an awful team will earn him much extra money.

And btw it is too early to write off Skinner. Look at how long Brown took to find his game. He became an important playoff performer. Skinner would notice that too and aim for that. I'd guess management and coaching feels the same. They have enough to worry about besides paying someone to take Skinner, and probably believe his talent will eventually redeem him

I don't really disagree with any part of your post.

 

[TheNumber4]

Yeh no way Skinner is moving. And the Oilers ain’t dumping him.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

I think a player on pace to score 15 goals will net you 3M in this league. I think a player on pace for 15 goals should be able to be moved without giving up assets- especially if that player was sought after in the off-season.

If you keep scrolling up- my response was to a poster saying he is PTO material and Oilers would need to give up assets to move- which I believe not to be the case.

Kailer Yamamoto paced for 15 goals pretty much every year of his Oilers career. Went from being a nice solid contributor to a team pariah the second he went from 1 million per year to 3 and Yamamoto is a vastly superior defensive player to Skinner and played with far more grit and effort. 15 goals can net you 3 million if you do other useful things like good defense, forechecking, winning puck battles etc, none of which Skinner can do. Players in that ~15 goal pace range who get 3 million and are actually worth it are more guys like Evan Rodrigues and Nicolas Roy.

I do agree that he's not PTO material and his past history of multiple 30 goal seasons, plus only one year left on the deal, means we wont have to give up many assets to get rid of him, if any.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

My prediction, he’s thinking: “I’m going to score some f***in goals and show this town who I really am. Cause I’m Jeff f***in Skinner and I score f***in goals and always have.”

I’m not sure Jeff thinks that way. He’s sinking down the depth chart faster than the Titanic in the North Atlantic.