A person with a functioning brain that actually understands analytics in context.
Refreshing.
Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | The Oilers Biggest Roster Need Is?
- Thread starter Bryanbryoil
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A person with a functioning brain that actually understands analytics in context.
Refreshing.
Freeaaakinnnn nummbers guys takin over the world. The real problem is they can prove it 42.287 percent of the time.
Behind Enemy Lines
Registered User
Just need to see complete information before making declarative statements. As well laying of information which I suspect much is beyond the public realm.
The paired with McDavid phenomenon is real as far as impact on analytics goes.
Nurse being on the 5 man unit with McDavid for basically the entirety of the lockout year is pretty much why he's making $9M today.
ChaoticOrange
Registered User
Haven’t we been gushing about how good Kulak has been this year? That’s reflected in the numbers. Kulikov and Sandin have been great so far. See the rest of the list where there’s perennial Norris finalists? It’s a small sample size. What separates “shit” and great is the ability to do it over a whole season and long sustained stretches. Like Bouchard did last year. And most of this year.
Just you. And I called you a goober. Because you’re being one. One with zero evidence aside from having watched a few bad plays while evidently ignoring all of the good ones.
Oilhawks
Over Old Hills
- Nov 24, 2011
- 28,899
- 52,561
As “bad” defensively as Bouchard has been at times, he does his job. Skinjob? Doing his job is the exception, not the rule.
I can't help but laugh at the last sentence. "Zero evidence! Well other than the bad plays he's been making I guess."
Look above and you'll see how a non-idiot looks at analytics.
He isn't even "bad" defensively, he just has major, preventable brain fart moments at too high of a clip at the moment. It's like his timing and reads are off 5-10% in most parts of his game and it's leading to some bad games and bad moments.
He'll be good for 59 minutes, but wash a lot of it out with the abysmal 1 other minute some of the time.
I'm glad our team is good now haha.
I'm liking other names out there. Hopefully we can get a solid top 4!
I'm liking other names out there. Hopefully we can get a solid top 4!
oXo Cube
Power Play Merchant
I'm not a subscriber to EvolvingHockey so I can't reply to the direct subject here(GAR) but Bouchard's advanced metrics don't really decline that much away from McDavid. he drops from a ~60% xG player to 58(still elite).
The red flag you're describing with Nurse doesn't exist with this player and never has.
CantHaveTkachev
Cap Space > NHL players
Most teams have secondary assets that are better than the Oilers primary assets. Better prospects, current 1sts, better future 1sts, better expendable roster players. The Oilers just don't have the assets to pull off a trade for a top prospect which usually requires another top prospect and/or high draft picks of which the Oilers have very little of.
McFlash97
Registered User
- Oct 10, 2017
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- 6,921
ChaoticOrange
Registered User
I don't pay for the patreon, but it's offered here if you'd like to view it.
GAR assumes league average goaltending, which Edmonton hasn't gotten.
So how come Bouchard's on ice save percentage goes up without Ekholm, and Ekholm's goes down without Bouchard?
ChaoticOrange
Registered User
Right, so you want doctoral theses on advanced mathematics and statistics presented while you sit there and throw out "BOUCHARD SHIT" like a sub-average chimpanzee? Wonderful. I'll get right on that.
Bouchard makes mistakes, absolutely. He also makes dozens of excellent plays every game. This isn't as difficult to understand as you're determined to make it look.
CantHaveTkachev
Cap Space > NHL players
please read most PGT's this year
heck read this:
Player Discussion - Evan Bouchard
If he stays healthy and on the first PP unit all year, he will blow that out of the water. Yep, he certainly may hit 80, or even higher. I still wish he had the other stuff. But then, what would we do with two $9.5M dmen. :D
and this: (it's nonsense btw)
Proposal: - Trade Bouchard...
I rarely post trade proposals or start threads for that matter. Deperate times... I think we need to move on from Bouchard. His defensive funk is more than just a sophomore/3rd year dip. His lazy play has already cost Campbell and Woody their jobs. Yes, I said it. Nobody is saying that...
oXo Cube
Power Play Merchant
My favorite Bouchard stat sample, the 2024 NHL Playoffs:
The Oilers were one game away from winning the Stanley Cup and when #2 was on the bench they were flat out bad. McDavid or otherwise.
The Oilers were one game away from winning the Stanley Cup and when #2 was on the bench they were flat out bad. McDavid or otherwise.
CantHaveTkachev
Cap Space > NHL players
- Ekholm doesn't play on the PP as much as Bouchard
- Bouchard doesn't PK at all
- small sample size
Skinner could shoot 10 pucks into his own net and he’d still blame the defense
Some posters are just looking for confirmation bias so they see the few bad plays and point to that while ignoring the dozens of good plays he does
Oh ok.
So how come the effect is even more pronounced at 5v5?
It's also not statistically that small a sample - it's like 45 minutes apart vs 368 minutes together. Around 12.5%.
Behind Enemy Lines
Registered User
Thanks for the link. But without only half of the puzzle it's hard to make any declarative statements. On the Oilers deployment is a consideration with McDavid driving NHL elite offensive zone time and limited defensive zone time. Add that in real production terms McDavid and Draisaitl (who all coaches lean into playing together as Break In Case of Emergency situations) have produced 24 goals of the team's 58 goals.
I don't pay for the patreon, but it's offered here if you'd like to view it.
GAR assumes league average goaltending, which Edmonton hasn't gotten.
The Oil Stack Five is an elite chance driver and producer historically but with a speed bump this year with the wingers.
Juxta Position
Registered User
- Jul 2, 2006
- 2,361
- 1,978
ChaoticOrange
Registered User
Well you could also look at Bouchard’s numbers away from McDavid, which are easy enough to dig up. Theyre elite with the likes of Henrique, Brown, Perry and Janmark too.
ya, it's only "1 game"
that's why many people have been ripping on him all year about his uneven play FFS
thing with with analytics is they don't account for critical errors at key times...Bouchard is prone to them more often than actual Norris trophy winners
that requires you to watch hockey games instead of spreadsheets
How do you actually know this though? Are you watching every game of every team every night?
You think Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar aren’t also making mistakes out there?
It’s what tends to happen when offensive dmen have the puck on their stick a lot.
Behind Enemy Lines
Registered User
Are you talking x-stats or actual production or both? What I'd like to see is the x-GAR argument you made with context to actual production results. Wonder if anyone here has the paid subscription content to let us look at the complete picture of your statement.
