Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Savoie Gets an Audition With the Trade Deadline Looming

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He wasn’t at fault for the loss
He did have fault in the loss though. He let in an awful goal that turned into the game winning goal. Coaches tell players to push shooters to the outside and the goalie will stop it. From the position the shot came from, he should have had it. The Oilers not scoring enough in game 7 doesn't absolve Skinner from letting in a crappy gwg.

The very real problem is that we should not be talking about game 7 anymore and I’m not sure why people are focused on that when Skinner has been truly awful this season.
This. Skinner was up and down in the playoffs last year, but he hasn't had the ups this year that he needs to
 
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This is where you would be massively wrong. Fans generally use these stats to satisfy their own bias, not to quantify.
Rarely are they interpreted properly or objectively. These stats when also represented in a vacuum (which happens 99.9% of the time), end up being highly influential in public opinion and sway common sense, logic and facts(see JFresh)

Look no further than this teams Marancin, Yak and JP to name a few. Or remember when this fanbase was convinced Hamonic was as good as Hedman and Seabrook b/c 5v5? Simply cuz it made him more appealing to acquire?

Currently these "stats" are being used to "quantify" goaltending. Goaltending is the hot topic nowadays, just like center depth was the trump card in years prior, speed before that, and size before that.

People use these these stats to omit all sorts of truths. A great example would be Skinner in the month of January. Despite being a major factor in 5 wins that month, it was all ignored and argued that he was terrible infact...cuz the so called "stats" say so....or quantified

Advanced analytics aren't nearly as complicated as people think. The bigger problem is that people either don't understand the impact or are unable to properly analyze what the data is saying to draw the appropriate conclusions.

I don't think anyone on here ever argued that Hamonic was ever as good as Hedman or Seabrook. I would imagine the argument was that they had better defensive metrics - which needs to account for quality of competition and can be skewed in a limited sample size. This is where fans try to skew the data in a way that supports a ridiculous argument like you are saying. When the eye test doesn't match what the analytics say, the answer isn't to ignore the analytics. Rather, you likely need to do a deeper dive.

The analytic community right now likes to talk about GSAx because it's more of an individual stat than something like GAA or SV% which are more of a team stat. We've seen this for years on teams like Los Angeles or Minnesota where the team in front of the goaltender doesn't give up much defensively. Context is obviously important and should used in conjunction with common sense. The data itself is unbiased.

Not every analytical model is equal. It's important to look a variety of different ones and if they are all saying the same thing - it's not a coincidence. Analytics are just a tool you can use and like any other tool, it needs to be used properly.

Skinner in January is the perfect example. The Pro-Skinner people will omit the rest of the year and say, "He's been one of the best goalies in the league since November 23rd", knowing that he was terrible before that time. Meanwhile the anti-skinner people will point out how terrible he was before that. The answer is actually somewhere in between. If you look at the data in its entirety it's obvious that Skinner is incredibly inconsistent and that on the whole, he hasn't been good enough relative to the rest of the team.
 
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He did have fault in the loss though. He let in an awful goal that turned into the game winning goal. Coaches tell players to push shooters to the outside and the goalie will stop it. From the position the shot came from, he should have had it. The Oilers not scoring enough in game 7 doesn't absolve Skinner from letting in a crappy gwg.


This. Skinner was up and down in the playoffs last year, but he hasn't had the ups this year that he needs to
Well yes, of course he’s to blame..but the lack of scoring was the biggest reason they lost
 
If Tuch's actually available, he would be a massive add to the team. I would run a Skinner-Draisaitl-Tuch line given how Skinner has developed some chemistry with Draisaitl and already knows Tuch.
I like the idea of Tuch. He would be a great add. That said, I can't imagine Buffalo firesaling a core guy for futures ... at least in the case of the Oilers a late 1st round pick a year from now and additional secondary picks. Adams who should be fired (especially after his coup to get the last guy fired) has to turn their NHL assets into NHL bodies that can carry out a culture change.

The Buffalo market is well beyond bodies for more hope and pray three to five year down the road moves. We saw that with the McLeod Savoie deal. So what would an Oilers package have to look like and how could it beat other teams likely better resourced?
 
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The very real problem is that we should not be talking about game 7 anymore and I’m not sure why people are focused on that when Skinner has been truly awful this season.
This is a very good point. Good or not last playoffs… Are we expecting him to magically turn it around come playoffs this season when the competition ramps up?
 
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I’ll try to be objective here.

Skinner can have stretches where he stops lots of high danger chances.

The problem is (as we all know) consistency.

But also the problem is the types of high danger chances he stops:

If you put Skinner in place of Binnington yesterday, he probably stops a lot of the shots too. The issue is that when two good teams face each other (like last night or in a SCF), the margins are usually very thin between winning and losing. So while Skinner stops a lot of the same shots, the ones he wouldn’t stop are the difference between winning and losing.

Which ones wouldn’t he stop? A good portion of the chances where he has to be athletic and move laterally very quickly. In OT I don’t think he makes the first save on Matthews and if he somehow does I don’t think he makes the second save on Tkachuk. There’s a chance he doesn’t stop the 2 on 1 in the third period too. Canada needed ALL those saves to win because the margin was so thin.

So while you can say both Binnington and Skinner did their jobs in these big games, it’s clear one goalie had a bigger impact. And it just shows that even great teams need great goaltending sometimes to win it all. Saying the rest of the team should be strong enough to completely mask any goaltending weaknesses is unrealistic.
I have tried to make this point many times. When people look at the goals the Oilers give up and try to assess blame they are only looking at half the story, or maybe less. One should hope that an NHL starter seldom gets beat by a goal that he should absolutely stop. So the vast majority of goals should be someone else's fault to some degree, or perhaps mostly someone else's fault. In a league where 2 shots in 100 determine the difference between a Vezina winner and an also ran its is probably how many shots that he is not really expected to stop that he does that determines who is the best goalie. This is why I have tome for the xG models. While not perfect over a season they can help one to quantify this.
 
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Can you imagine game 1 of the playoffs with:

Hyman - McDavid - Tuch
Kane - Draisaitl - Savoie
Arvidsson - Nuge - J. Skinner
Podkolzin - Janmark - C. Brown
You don't even have Henrique in there lol. I'd probably play him as a fourth line center with Janmark on the LW. Pod and Perry as the extra skaters- that's an insane amount of depth.
 
I recall a few weeks ago there was a Pronger interview and he stated that in the playoffs your top 6 basically cancels out and it’s your bottom 6 where the difference is magnified. I’ll agree with the hall of famer on this one.
This is not relevant to a discussion about an individual game but it is actually not true statistically. Generally, teams whose best players play the best win most often. It's not absolute, but it is typically true.
 
Well yes, of course he’s to blame..but the lack of scoring was the biggest reason they lost

I do agree that the Oilers could have used more offensive depth last year with the injuries they had, but it wasn't because of McDavid and Draisaitl. McDavid won the Conn Smyth and Draisaitl is the best playoff perform of our generation.

Among all playoff teams last year, Edmonton had the 3rd highest GF/60 with 3.44. Overall, they scored 86 goals which was 13 more than the panthers did.

1740179086125.png


These offensive numbers didn't drop a whole lot in the finals (down to 3.29). The PK was a net 104.8% and the PP struggled but still considerably better than the panthers. Overall, the Oilers outscored the panthers 23-18 in the finals. The problem was that one of those games was an 8-1 win.

1740180150025.png


Overall, the Oilers scorers performed better offensively in last years playoffs than the Panthers did.

1740179324434.png


The problem is that the playoffs are slog. By the time you get to the finals, you need your depth players stepping up.

Draisaitl, Nuge and Kane were all injured by the finals. I don't know how you can blame any of them. You need your depth guys to come in and bring some energy, life and offense.

Meanwhile McDavid was still the best skater of the series:

1740179652296.png


By the time we made it to the finals, we just didn't have enough left in the tank. Florida saw the same thing when they played Vegas. At the time they blamed the loss to the knights to injuries. Edmonton could do the same thing but instead we went out and tried to find more offensive weapons in the off-season. That's why we added Arvidsson and Skinner (which both aren't cutting it right now).
 

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The advance stats discussion carries on. Pursuit of new insight to understand, enhance decision making, and search out hidden value is awesome.

I like this article How the right kind of sports analytics can transform business thinking. which uses an example of posing a question and then following through with an increasingly deeper dive to test and refine conclusions: "Let’s examine LeBron James’ shooting patterns while highlighting the importance of analyzing data from multiple perspectives. In 2017, the Crumpled Jumper blog examined LeBron’s shooting during the 2016–17 regular season, noting that after making one shot and missing the next, he moved an average of 5 feet closer to the basket on his following attempt."

Now this deep dive process is also supported through highly reliable, direct data source via the NBA tracking
"Modern NBA games can be analyzed with unprecedented precision using NBA tracking data. For over a decade, the league has employed cameras mounted in stadium rafters to record the ball’s location and every player’s position on the court 25 times per second. Additionally, three-dimensional coordinate data is provided for the ball. This level of detail allows analysts to address questions that were once nearly impossible to answer."

Now hockey is an even more complex system with high speed, collisions and a ton of randomness within virtually every activity. The NHL Edge model is still in early adoption so the data source still falls into subjectivity by public and private users. There's variances within models with regard to interpretations of actions and results on ice. There was an article posted months back that suggested the variance was as high as 20% on public models used to parse out advance stats.

There's great value to looking at enhanced data and patterns that it reveals within this complex high chaos game. However like the LeBron example of this article hypothesis need to be more deeply explored into to uncover 'truth'.

I find too often high level advance stats get wielded as 'truth' by some without the thoroughness, rigor and deeper dive analysis required to stump definitive conclusions.
 
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This is not relevant to a discussion about an individual game but it is actually not true statistically. Generally, teams whose best players play the best win most often. It's not absolute, but it is typically true.
I’m not sure I agree, McD and Bouchard set offensive records, Hyman had a truckload of goals yet Florida won the Cup. I think the bottom 6 needed to bring more.
 
I imagine the Bowman interview will go as follows:

1. Oilers are happy with their team.
2. Looking at the market to see what makes sense.
3. Mediterranean Chicken Pizza
4. Know more about Kane and Klingberg by the deadline.
5. Canada beat the USA yesterday.

Yeah I Nailed it.
 
Skinner was 11th in goals saved above expected in the playoffs. There wasn’t more good than bad. He was one of the worst goalies in the playoffs this past year, and has been the worst in the cap era


I said the same thing to my buddies. He is going back to the US as soon as he can


I said it earlier in the thread (or maybe the last thread) the Oilers are oddly proud of the below average goaltending they get at rock bottom prices.
Yes, standards are standards.

Scottie Pippen was criminally underpaid. Does that give him a reason to suck? lol. He was great. Almost won a championship without Jordan.

It should never be ok to be bad with your peers.

skinners momma has some account here.
 
I’m not sure I agree, McD and Bouchard set offensive records, Hyman had a truckload of goals yet Florida won the Cup. I think the bottom 6 needed to bring more.
The Oilers got to game 7 of the final. They did not do that because the Oilers bottom 6 outplayed the bottom six of LA, Vancouver and Dallas. They did it in good part because their top players outplayed the top players of those teams. This is why the Oilers have won more playoff games over the last three years than every other team except Florida. Now as I said it is not absolute. Even if your best players are great you do still need the rest of the team to at least hold their own. Depth does matter. But in general it is the top players that make the most difference.
 
The Oilers got to game 7 of the final. They did not do that because the Oilers bottom 6 outplayed the bottom six of LA, Vancouver and Dallas. They did it in good part because their top players outplayed the top players of those teams. This is why the Oilers have won more playoff games over the last three years than every other team except Florida. Now as I said it is not absolute. Even if your best players are great you do still need the rest of the team to at least hold their own. Depth does matter. But in general it is the top players that make the most difference.
Fair enough and your entitled to your opinion but like I said earlier I’ll agree with the hall of famer.
 
Well enjoy life in the echo chamber, homie. Blaming the best players in the world is a stupid, lazy, "point at scoreboard" take. Skinner is a bad goalie and you are constantly pimping for him while bringing down Connor and Drai. Almost like scoring goals is a HELL of a lot harder than putting up a .900 in the playoffs. Your boy stinks and your takes are incomprehensibly stupid on this topic. It's very embarrassing to see you continue to beat this drum. We are all laughing at you.
It is LAUGHABLY embarassing how this guy simps for him.
 

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