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Fourier said:
The source I use is Natural stats trick. The ES data does include EN goals as well as 4 vs 4 and 3 vs 3. But they explicitly have data for 5 vs 5 which does not include EN goals unless they happen when the teams are 5 vs 5. In this case his 5 vs 5 scoring rate is by far the highest of of his last 5 years, double last years and just a shade off the best of his career. But his 5 vs 5 S% is by quite a bit higher than it has ever been.

For the record OV's EN goal total is higher than normal at 8 but he scored 9 only 3 years ago and he had 6 two years ago so EN goals are not a huge distortion on these stats. The puck is just going in for him 5 vs 5 this year at a much higher rate than in the past. (Interestingly enough his pp numbers are actually down compared with the past). And for a volume shooter like OV, a guy who has many of the highest shot totals in history, that really matters.

There other stats that are tracked that is relevant here like iSCF iHDCF. These are a measure of how many (high danger) scoring chances OV has himself 5 vs 5.. His numbers are down historically and even with respect to the last few years. OV's ixG is usually lower that his actual goal total as is to be expected for a great shooter. Typically in the 20-30% range with some years a but higher. But this year his actual goal total 5 vs 5 is 80% higher than his ixG total. Again, these are not driven by EN goals.

OV does seem more motivated and I suspect the record chase is very much driving him. But its not like he never played with good players. He was stapled to Backstrom for most of his career, a guy who was certainly one of the best pure playmakers of his generation. And if you look at 2021-22 through 2023-24 his most common linemates by far were Kuznetzov, Wilson, and Strome, with Carlson on defense and Sheary and Oshie thrown in from time to time. This year it is Strome and Protas with Chychrun and Carlson on defense. Those are the guys on the ice when the vast majority of his goals at 5 vs 5 happen so while Washington as a team is better, its not like his linemates are more skilled than in the past.
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Thank you for the reply Fourier. As much as the Goal scoring/60 rate is high this year I'd like to contrast that the G/G rate is not high at all, and factoring in the ENG the shooting % this season isn't that far off what has even been recent averages in past seasons in which OV commonly enough is shooting 15% or over.

But back to the rates. They can sometimes be misleading, and we even see that here because playing say OV, Drai, or McD big minutes can be counter productive. So that what one often enough see's is that playing a superstar say 20mins gets the same production value, and quality of game out of a superstar than if you overplay them to say 25min rage. OV for the first time in awhile this season happens to be on a deep team where the minutes and offense can be spread out. He's also playing on a team now with several other production weapons so that the coverage can be spread out. He' also been injured and have time off from the grind and 82 game seasons are always a grind. So that the player that plays say 60 games in a season is more rested than one who has played full season. Per 60 rates can be misleading in lieu of these types of values.

But as we agree of course the Gretzky chase is HUGE in OV scoring stats this season and its one of the factors I stated, and it isn't due to PDO as I stated. Its a generational scorer bearing down on all of his shots as he can, and bringing even more focus and commitment for the thrill of the chase. Indeed watcing OV this season he's playing the best maybe since the cup time frame.

As to your point of course OV has played with good/great players. But this is certainly the deepest team he's been on since the Cup win. But again my further point that in Washington now they just have so many weapons, so many guys to shutdown now. So that teams have had trouble trying to cover everything.
 
CupofOil said:
Yes there's a McDrai factor but Bouchard doubled Chychrun in points last year, had one of the best playoff performances of all time and even in a down year has 55 points to Chychrun's 44 and plays 23+ minutes a night compared to 20+ minutes a night for Chychrun. Bouchard could get quite a bit more than $9m/yr.
Not to take away from Chychrun who has been fantastic this year but the numbers are what bring in the bacon and Bouchard has a significant numbers advantage.

Also, I know about his defensive warts and they've been very glaring this year but offense brings in the big bucks and he's been a top 5 offensive defenseman the last two years. Another big playoff and sky's the limit on his next contract.
It's a conundrum because his defensive game this year has been scary bad and while he drives offense at an elite level, that's going to be a real scary contract. He's going to get paid as a top 5 Dman and he's playing like a 25-30 Dman this year.
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Theres no comparison between the players. Booch offensively is elite for D but Chychrun has all the tools. Shutdown, offense, great skate, coverage, anticipation. Years ago somebody here, Reverend Oiler (great forgotten poster) said to me Pronger was the best "snowball catcher" he ever saw. What is meant by that is somebody having the precision to catch every rush coming at him. It king of transcended my view on Pronger and what he was gold at. Now I'm not making any comparison but the amount of good plays, decisions, seals, closures I see Chychrun making this year impresses me. As much as I like Booch Chychrun is the full meal deal.
 
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Drivesaitl said:
Theres no comparison between the players. Booch offensively is elite for D but Chychrun has all the tools. Shutdown, offense, great skate, coverage, anticipation. Years ago somebody here, Reverend Oiler (great forgotten poster) said to me Pronger was the best "snowball catcher" he ever saw. What is meant by that is somebody having the precision to catch every rush coming at him. It king of transcended my view on Pronger and what he was gold at. Now I'm not making any comparison but the amount of good plays, decisions, seals, closures I see Chychrun making this year impresses me. As much as I look Booch Chychrun is the full meal deal.
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Chychrun was the guy I would have liked the Oilers to pick up instead of Henrique last deadline. I don't think he would be that far off offensively if he switched roles with Bouchard. He's a guy I would say is good enough at everything.
 
Canovin said:
Chychrun was the guy I would have liked the Oilers to pick up instead of Henrique last deadline. I don't think he would be that far off offensively if he switched roles with Bouchard. He's a guy I would say is good enough at everything.
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Yeah. The way to describe is he's making the plays that either or both of Booch and Ekholm can. Should definitely be in Norris convo.
 
Canovin said:
It's not lying. It's load management at this point and you want McDrai as great shape as possible.
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You do, but you also need to head into the playoffs on a good position.
Now it’s sounding like Frederic is a few weeks away from even skating with the team. Not even returning. So there is a very good chance he doesn’t even play a regular season game for us.
This trade keeps me laughing because of it.
We even paid extra for retention on a player that could have been on LTIr this whole time.
 
CycloneSweep said:
You do, but you also need to head into the playoffs on a good position.
Now it’s sounding like Frederic is a few weeks away from even skating with the team. Not even returning. So there is a very good chance he doesn’t even play a regular season game for us.
This trade keeps me laughing because of it.
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They likely won't finish atop the division and now they might not even have home ice in round one... McDrai can't be rushed back but at the same time if the team goes into a tailspin...
 
CycloneSweep said:
You do, but you also need to head into the playoffs on a good position.
Now it’s sounding like Frederic is a few weeks away from even skating with the team. Not even returning. So there is a very good chance he doesn’t even play a regular season game for us.
This trade keeps me laughing because of it.
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Would it have been better to get some retention on Max Jones insetad? Frederic will be LTIR and not a cap impact for the rest of the year...

Jones is still under contract next season for $1M. Ideally he came at a discount rate as our 13th forward next season. Similar to paying Stetcher minimum salary to be the 7th defenseman. Take any savings you can.
 
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popo said:
Would it have been better to get some retention on Max Jones insetad? Frederic will be LTIR and not a cap impact for the rest of the year...

Jones is still under contract next season for $1M. Ideally he came at a discount rate as our 13th forward next season. Similar to paying Stetcher minimum salary to be the 7th defenseman. Take any savings you can.
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It would have been better than paying for double retention on a guy who won’t play a regular season game…and who we didn’t even use the cap the retention saved us.
 
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Jimmi McJenkins said:
I guess, I just assume that Knoblauch isn't a doctor lol.
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People bitch regardless. Connor comes back early from previous injuries and people lose their minds that we are rushing himm back. Get told guys are week to week and if it last any amount of time past a couple weeks then there is backlash.

Nobody is lying, certain injuries can linger. No point right now rushing guys back to play banged up.
 
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joestevens29 said:
People bitch regardless. Connor comes back early from previous injuries and people lose their minds that we are rushing himm back. Get told guys are week to week and if it last any amount of time past a couple weeks then there is backlash.

Nobody is lying, certain injuries can linger. No point right now rushing guys back to play banged up.
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The best is when it dovetails into a criticism of how the injury is/was being handled by trainers, the org, whatever based on absolutely no real information whatsoever.
 
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Drivesaitl said:
Thank you for the reply Fourier. As much as the Goal scoring/60 rate is high this year I'd like to contrast that the G/G rate is not high at all, and factoring in the ENG the shooting % this season isn't that far off what has even been recent averages in past seasons in which OV commonly enough is shooting 15% or over.

But back to the rates. They can sometimes be misleading, and we even see that here because playing say OV, Drai, or McD big minutes can be counter productive. So that what one often enough see's is that playing a superstar say 20mins gets the same production value, and quality of game out of a superstar than if you overplay them to say 25min rage. OV for the first time in awhile this season happens to be on a deep team where the minutes and offense can be spread out. He's also playing on a team now with several other production weapons so that the coverage can be spread out. He' also been injured and have time off from the grind and 82 game seasons are always a grind. So that the player that plays say 60 games in a season is more rested than one who has played full season. Per 60 rates can be misleading in lieu of these types of values.

But as we agree of course the Gretzky chase is HUGE in OV scoring stats this season and its one of the factors I stated, and it isn't due to PDO as I stated. Its a generational scorer bearing down on all of his shots as he can, and bringing even more focus and commitment for the thrill of the chase. Indeed watcing OV this season he's playing the best maybe since the cup time frame.

As to your point of course OV has played with good/great players. But this is certainly the deepest team he's been on since the Cup win. But again my further point that in Washington now they just have so many weapons, so many guys to shutdown now. So that teams have had trouble trying to cover everything.
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/60 numbers are far from perfect because things are not linear. I fully acknowledge this and have made exactly that case many times. But that is generally a bigger issue for comparing different players more so than comparing a player year over year which is what I did. Sometimes these numbers are the best ones available. In this case I chose them over G/Gm because OV's role has changed. His ES TOI is only 13:30 per game which is about 2 1/2 minutes less than he typically played a decade ago. On its own this could be dismissed as him being more efficient playing less, but all the other metrics I stated seem to point towards a much higher than normal conversion rate. If it was only about being fresher this should not have been the case.

Regardless, OV's numbers are exceptional for a guy his age. But I am still not sure if Washington isn't riding the sort of wave Boston was on a few years ago. A lot of guys are out performing their norms. We will see in the playoffs and next year if it is real or a sugar high. But until then it is what it is.
 
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Oilhawks said:
I haven't read the article...but greatest German talent and he goes undrafted? Seems odd
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Not a lot of info on the guy.

However, I was bitxhing the other day that we need to do more signings like this to stock pile our prospect pool, so I’m happy they are looking. Might turn out to be garbage, but you gotta take some swings
 
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Canovin said:
It's not lying. It's load management at this point and you want McDrai as great shape as possible.
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Yeh no reason to risk "pulling a Nico Harrison" and aggravating an injury because you're desperate to get your star player back on the ice. McDrai should rest as much as they need. We're comfortably in a playoff spot and I personally don't want to win the division because that means we might have to play the team that owns our souls in Minnesota instead of beating up on LA again.
 
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Trafalgar Sadge Law said:
Yeh no reason to risk "pulling a Nico Harrison" and aggravating an injury because you're desperate to get your star player back on the ice. McDrai should rest as much as they need. We're comfortably in a playoff spot and I personally don't want to win the division because that means we might have to play the team that owns our souls in Minnesota instead of beating up on LA again.
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Looking at LA’s home record starting there on the road isn’t a good idea.
 
joestevens29 said:
Not a lot of info on the guy.

However, I was bitxhing the other day that we need to do more signings like this to stock pile our prospect pool, so I’m happy they are looking. Might turn out to be garbage, but you gotta take some swings
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Oh I agree, they need to grab as many scratch tickets via signings as they can
 
Fourier said:
Different situation though. Nurse's contract has been an issue in most part because of timing. It happened just before the cap went flat for a half decade. The preseason you bridge Bouchard for two years is to give yourself room when the McDavid and Draisaitl new deals happen. After that your cap opens up immensely barring another covid like shock. You could easily have him jump from $8M to $12M without it impacting your cap much. And this would only happen if he actually earned it. You would have virtually a clean slate beyond McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Nuge and Nurse.
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It wouldn't be as bad as Nurse, but given the cap jump I could see Bouchard coming in at 14M after a bridge deal. And that would be closing in on the final years of McDavid & Draisaitl.

I'd much rather lock him up at ~10M now and save that $4M for key additions when we need to completely rebuild our roster.
 
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