Rumors Proposals Thread Post Deadline Apocalypse 3rd Times A Charm Stu Stu Stupider Management May the Schwartz be with You

[Drivesaitl]

Keep marching those goal posts.

Sorry statistics have dunked on your “Capitals aren’t good because of PDO” obsession.

You don't even read replies. Its reasonable to do so. But thats not your thing.

Not gonna waste any further time on you.

 

[K1984]

You don't even read replies. Its reasonable to do so. But thats not your thing.

Not gonna waste any further time on you.

Thanks.

 

[belair]

Caps added Dubois, Matt Roy, Chychrun, Logan Thompson. That's enough to turn a bubble team into contenders

This is why no one is truly shocked they did well this season. It's also the reason why no one will really be shocked if they regress to the mean next season.

 

[Mr Positive]

I think it was always going to be 10/11 million honestly.

Bouchard's been near the top in points for dman for consecutive years and he just broke an all time playoff scoring record.

Who knows? Maybe even 13 isn't too much and Draisaitl's deal will quickly become as good as his current one.

Cap inflation is going to mess up a lot of our expectations

 

[Canovin]

This is why no one is truly shocked they did well this season. It's also the reason why no one will really be shocked if they regress to the mean next season.

The thing is, even if the guys end up producing 70% of what they’re producing right now next season, they would still be a good team. 14M in cap space is a lot to play with

 

[LTIR]

After they paid to rebuild him?

Robokane!

 

[LTIR]

If the Oilers keep Kane and Henrique and extend Frederic to 4M, and only move Arvid, they have just over 3M. That's enough to squeeze in Gibson. The big add would have to wait until deadline

Frederic(4)-McDavid(12.5)-Hyman(5.5)
Kane(5.125)-Drai(14)-Savoie(1)
RNH(5.125-Henrique(3)-Perry(1)
x(1)-x(1)-x(1)
x(1)

Ekholm(6)-Bouchard(8)
Nurse(9.25)-Walman(3.4)
Kulak(2.7)-x(1)
x(1)

1A(3)
1B(1)
Deadcap(2.3)

The advantage of holding onto Kane is he could probably be go on LTIR again

Let's see what we have in Frederic first before giving him 4M.
He hasn't done enough to be considered much better than Foegele and could just be a Kassian level player. Too early to pencil him in top 6 let alone on the top line.

 

[Zerotonine]

Caps got 14M to sign Mangiapane and 3 bottom 6 players. OV also leaving after next season. Lots of cap space.

Wouldn't be surprised if ovevhkin tries this year IF he breaks gretzkys record tbh

 

[AddyTheWrath]

Yep, Bouchard is going to be crazy expensive. I think people should be prepared for $10m/yr+ with the cap jump. Might be better to bridge him for a few years then decide on what to do with him thereafter. The Oilers cup window is likely over by then anyway.

That would be the opposite of the smart thing to do. We bridged Nurse twice and now he makes 9.25M. And Bouchard is arbitration eligible with great point totals so you're likely not getting under 8M anyway

 

[aggressive forecheck]

If the Oilers keep Kane and Henrique and extend Frederic to 4M, and only move Arvid, they have just over 3M. That's enough to squeeze in Gibson. The big add would have to wait until deadline

Frederic(4)-McDavid(12.5)-Hyman(5.5)
Kane(5.125)-Drai(14)-Savoie(1)
RNH(5.125-Henrique(3)-Perry(1)
x(1)-x(1)-x(1)
x(1)

Ekholm(6)-Bouchard(8)
Nurse(9.25)-Walman(3.4)
Kulak(2.7)-x(1)
x(1)

1A(3)
1B(1)
Deadcap(2.3)

The advantage of holding onto Kane is he could probably be go on LTIR again

Outraged by Broberg at 4.5M but jumping to give Frederic 4M. You're going the wrong way.

 

[aggressive forecheck]

You cannot give Bouchard a red cent more than Nurse. Trade him.

 

[Fourier]

I'd want proof that the data source you are using is separating out empty net goals and NOT including them. Some of the sources you've used in the past have not separated out.

In any case I've mentioned other factors. For instance playing with stronger team and linemates and having some elite production D setting up, and OV on the Gretz chase are all factors related. Watching OV this season he looks like a kid in a candy shop having the most fun he's had in the game in years. Many things go on in team sports, in hockey, that are harder to quantify.

The source I use is Natural stats trick. The ES data does include EN goals as well as 4 vs 4 and 3 vs 3. But they explicitly have data for 5 vs 5 which does not include EN goals unless they happen when the teams are 5 vs 5. In this case his 5 vs 5 scoring rate is by far the highest of of his last 5 years, double last years and just a shade off the best of his career. But his 5 vs 5 S% is by quite a bit higher than it has ever been.

For the record OV's EN goal total is higher than normal at 8 but he scored 9 only 3 years ago and he had 6 two years ago so EN goals are not a huge distortion on these stats. The puck is just going in for him 5 vs 5 this year at a much higher rate than in the past. (Interestingly enough his pp numbers are actually down compared with the past). And for a volume shooter like OV, a guy who has many of the highest shot totals in history, that really matters.

There other stats that are tracked that is relevant here like iSCF iHDCF. These are a measure of how many (high danger) scoring chances OV has himself 5 vs 5.. His numbers are down historically and even with respect to the last few years. OV's ixG is usually lower that his actual goal total as is to be expected for a great shooter. Typically in the 20-30% range with some years a but higher. But this year his actual goal total 5 vs 5 is 80% higher than his ixG total. Again, these are not driven by EN goals.

OV does seem more motivated and I suspect the record chase is very much driving him. But its not like he never played with good players. He was stapled to Backstrom for most of his career, a guy who was certainly one of the best pure playmakers of his generation. And if you look at 2021-22 through 2023-24 his most common linemates by far were Kuznetzov, Wilson, and Strome, with Carlson on defense and Sheary and Oshie thrown in from time to time. This year it is Strome and Protas with Chychrun and Carlson on defense. Those are the guys on the ice when the vast majority of his goals at 5 vs 5 happen so while Washington as a team is better, its not like his linemates are more skilled than in the past.

 

[Fourier]

That would be the opposite of the smart thing to do. We bridged Nurse twice and now he makes 9.25M. And Bouchard is arbitration eligible with great point totals so you're likely not getting under 8M anyway

Different situation though. Nurse's contract has been an issue in most part because of timing. It happened just before the cap went flat for a half decade. The preseason you bridge Bouchard for two years is to give yourself room when the McDavid and Draisaitl new deals happen. After that your cap opens up immensely barring another covid like shock. You could easily have him jump from $8M to $12M without it impacting your cap much. And this would only happen if he actually earned it. You would have virtually a clean slate beyond McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Nuge and Nurse.

 

[alphahelix]

Podkolzin’s biological age is only 18 so buy long

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

You cannot give Bouchard a red cent more than Nurse. Trade him.

?? You absolutely can and absolutely should lol.

 

[Canovin]

Outraged by Broberg at 4.5M but jumping to give Frederic 4M. You're going the wrong way.

lol different situation.

 

[CupofOil]

Not sure about that. Chychrun is an insanely good player...finally healthy and dominating the game. Can't imagine Bouch goes for higher, but he is younger so...guess we'll see. Either way, like you said and I've been saying..the Cup window is slim.

Yes there's a McDrai factor but Bouchard doubled Chychrun in points last year, had one of the best playoff performances of all time and even in a down year has 55 points to Chychrun's 44 and plays 23+ minutes a night compared to 20+ minutes a night for Chychrun. Bouchard could get quite a bit more than $9m/yr.
Not to take away from Chychrun who has been fantastic this year but the numbers are what bring in the bacon and Bouchard has a significant numbers advantage.

Also, I know about his defensive warts and they've been very glaring this year but offense brings in the big bucks and he's been a top 5 offensive defenseman the last two years. Another big playoff and sky's the limit on his next contract.
It's a conundrum because his defensive game this year has been scary bad and while he drives offense at an elite level, that's going to be a real scary contract. He's going to get paid as a top 5 Dman and he's playing like a 25-30 Dman this year.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

Yes there's a McDrai factor but Bouchard doubled Chychrun in points last year, had one of the best playoff performances of all time and even in a down year has 55 points to Chychrun's 44 and plays 23+ minutes a night compared to 20+ minutes a night for Chychrun. Bouchard could get quite a bit more than $9m/yr.

Also, I know about his defensive warts and they've been very glaring this year but offense brings in the big bucks and he's been a top 5 offensive defenseman the last two years. Another big playoff and sky's the limit on his next contract.
It's a conundrum because his defensive game this year has been scary bad and while he drives offense at an elite level, that's going to be a real scary contract. He's going to get paid as a top 5 Dman and he's playing like a 25-30 Dman this year.

Bouchard is also right side.

 

[CupofOil]

To be honest a big chunk of Bouchard's points are gravy from the PP, at least probably 10 of his points are gravy PP assists because he plays with McDavid and Draisaitl. Subtract 10 points from his point total and compare to Chychrun and welp.

Bouchard had more even strength points than Chychrun had total last year lol. Hell, Bouchard almost had as many playoff points as Chychrun had regular season points playing 25 minutes a night btw. Anybody who thinks that Bouchard isn't getting more than Chychrun is delusional to be quite frank.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Bouchard had more even strength points than Chychrun had total last year lol. Hell, Bouchard almost had as many playoff points as Chychrun had regular season points playing 25 minutes a night btw. Anybody who thinks that Bouchard isn't getting more than Chychrun is delusional to be quite frank.

Bouchard is a vastly better defenseman, he impacts the game in such a significant way above Chychrun. Good on Chychrun getting paid, but the only way Bouchard comes in under him on a contract is if it's a bridge, and that will still probably be $8M+

 

[Draiskull]

The bright side is if Skinner shits the bed, the Oilers will be forced to address goaltending in the offseason. Not that I believe Bowman & co to make the appropriate moves.

I think if Skinner shits the bed the Oilers will be forced to address the team management in the offseason.
This GM banked on this goaltending duo along with Arvidsson, Skinner, Frederic up front and Bouchard, Stecher, Emberson and Klingberg as RHDs.

 

[Draiskull]

Bouchard is a vastly better defenseman, he impacts the game in such a significant way above Chychrun. Good on Chychrun getting paid, but the only way Bouchard comes in under him on a contract is if it's a bridge, and that will still probably be $8M+

Bouchard isnt a better Dman. He is a better point producer for sure but when it comes to actual defending unlike Chychrun there is a lot to be desired.

 

[McDNicks17]

Bouchard isnt a better Dman. He is a better point producer for sure but when it comes to actual defending unlike Chychrun there is a lot to be desired.

Chychrun is not a great defender. That's never been his game.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Bouchard isnt a better Dman. He is a better point producer for sure but when it comes to actual defending unlike Chychrun there is a lot to be desired.

No, he's a better Defenseman, his impact on the game in terms of possession, limiting and creating chances and how tilts the ice is far beyond what Chychrun brings.

I think this is an issue of just not understanding how he plays, and seeing the mistakes as the only take away from the player. Again, points are a big part of it, but Bouchard has a significant positive influence on the game far beyond points.

 

[Draiskull]

No, he's a better Defenseman, his impact on the game in terms of possession, limiting and creating chances and how tilts the ice is far beyond what Chychrun brings.

I think this is an issue of just not understanding how he plays, and seeing the mistakes as the only take away from the player. Again, points are a big part of it, but Bouchard has a significant positive influence on the game far beyond points.

Agree. He will get his 9M+ if his mistakes dont cost us the cup in a couple months.