Behind Enemy Lines
Registered User
This team is 40 goals above league average. They added two NHL proven top six players who are bonafide 20+ goal scorers and that's being very conservative about their actual results. This team is consistently among the elite PP results over years.Well let's look at some of those stats and how the Oilers are looking right NOW... because this team is much different than the one that was playing in the playoffs and in the regular season last year... lots of new bodies now with chemistry to recreate and who knows how the team will gel together.
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Podkolzin-Ryan-Perry
That's pretty much the set in stone forward group at this point... unless they call up Philp/Lavoie but it looks like cap accumulation means they are running with a skeleton crew for now at least.
Here's the stats for that forward group based on last season's stats... also keep in mind that this roster isn't young and everyone who was already aging... got another year older and poetentialy slower as well.
Percentile ranks for each line:
RNH:
68th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
82nd in shots
52nd in shooting %
72nd in goals
94th in offensive zone time
McDavid:
99th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
95th in shots
70th in shooting %
94th in goals
99th in offensive zone time
Hyman
75th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
98th in shots
97th in shooting %
99th in goals
98th in offensive zone time
Skinner
Below 50th in skating speed
71st in shot speed
88th in shots
64th in shooting %
83rd in goals
Below 50th in offensive zone time
Draisaitl
92nd in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
89th in shots
97th in shooting %
97th in goals
94th in offensive zone time
Arvidsson
84th in skating speed
52nd in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
54th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
63rd in offensive zone time
Janmark
79th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
Below 50th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
72nd in offensive zone time
Henrique
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
62nd in shots
94th in shooting %
83rd in goals
Below 50th in offensive zone time
Brown
56th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
Below 50th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
68th in offensive zone time
Podzkolzin
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
Below 50th in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
90th in offensive zone time
Ryan
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
51st in shooting %
Below 50th in goals
75th in offensive zone time
Perry
Below 50th in skating speed
Below 50th in shot speed
Below 50th in shots
86th in shooting %
56th in goals
55th in offensive zone time
Obviously some of those stats above are from when they were on previous teams... so it remains to be seen how the new lineup will look over a full season.
I'm not outright saying they will be worse offensively but I think there's a very good chance that happens because there's a whole lot of new line combinations and new faces and you know every single team in the NHL now knows the Oilers are contender #1 for the cup and opponents usually bring their A games when they play the Oilers... like it's a 7th game of the playoffs for an opponent and it's hard for the Oilers to consistently play up to that level of effort/intensity every game.
I'm obviously going to watch and see (like everyone else)... but my "hot take" is that the offense will be more of an issue than the D at least initially. I think Emberson/Stecher will fill the open spots reasonably effectively... whereas I think it will take time for the offense to gel.
In goal... well it's average at best with Skinner/Pickard but they basically will only be as good as the overall D in front of them... and if goal production does take a dip... that makes every flub and weak goal by the goalies look even worse. Run support cures a lot of defensive and goaltending issues so hopefully I'm wrong and the Oilers can score at the rates they were producing last season.
I'll gladly eat crow and admit my concerns were overblown if they are again top 5 in goal scoring. I just have a gut feeling that it's going to be a much harder grind this season to produce offense at the same rates they did last year.
The defense and PK along with assumption that Skinner continues to build consistency in his game is easily the biggest question mark. The offense is more than enough to hide defensive deficiencies through the regular season likely until trade deadline when virtually everyone is projecting the long standing gap at 2RD to be filled with accrued cap space.
No one can predict injury. But this team's elite forward talent drives a 93 percentile offensive zone time engine while keeping the puck away from their net with a 90 percentile defensive zone play. The offense is driven by a generational super elite and a second one who is also within the top five players in the league. Lots of versatility to move players around with centre wing versatility and high hockey processors with a coach able to game plan effectively and showing solid at in game tactical changes.
Again, they can regress somewhat in offensive from their 90 percentile goal scoring last year (99 percentile two years ago and 79 percentile three years ago). They added two NHL proven top six wingers and have a full year of Henrique with 3C and wing versatility and two way play/production. The Oilers have figured out the offensive outscoring piece over years as proof points. They've fired two coaches over the past several years with the uneven defensive play and goaltending. Not the ability to fill the other team's nets.